Morency's Performance in 2007

[BallHawk]

What do you expect to see, statistically, from Vernand Morency this year?

Please choose the stats that you see most fitting. If you think that he'll have a few less yards or a few more TDs then the categories offered, choose the closest one to that and then explain why.

Also, please keep in mind this is rushing only. I am not including receiving in this poll.

Personally, I think he will rush for around 900 yards and about 10 TDs. However, I think a 1,000 yard season is very possible.

[BallHawk]

I'm guessing it was Wist who voted for under 400 yards. :wink:

[Joemailman]

I voted 750-1000. I'm not sure how high the TD total will be. It will be interesting to see if Morency or Jackson will be the better goal-line runner.

[Freak Out]

I went the 500 yard route.

[RashanGary]

I voted 750-1000. He looked pretty good whenever he got the chance last year. He's bigger, stronger and acclimated to the system. I expect him to improve accordingly. He could do better but I expect him to get knicked up at some point so 750-1000 seems about right.

[Tarlam!]

I'm guessing it was Wist who voted for under 400 yards. :wink:

Er. How do I break this to you and the forum..... :twisted:

[the_idle_threat]

I'll be very surprised if Morency doesn't get at least 500 yards. He had over 400 last year with Green ahead of him. There will be far more opportunity this year. I'm thinking 600-700 yards each for Morency and B. Jackson, and that's a conservative estimate.

[Tarlam!]

I just think the draft pick will get the nod. Nothing against Morency, except, he will be replaced early IMHO.

[wist43]

Morency only had 91 carries last year, Green had 266...

I don't see the distribution going 266/91 between Morency/Jackson... 200/150 is more likely.

So assuming 4 yds/carry, that would bring Morency in at about 800 yds. I just don't see him as being able to take the pounding over 300 carries; beyond that, I think the running game will struggle in general.

Between the 20's they may be able to spread the field, which might make for some running room, but if a defense decides to just shut the run down, they're done.

[wist43]

I'm guessing it was Wist who voted for under 400 yards. :wink:

Er. How do I break this to you and the forum..... :twisted:

Thanks for taking a few bullets for me Tar...

I'm pretty bullet rittled these days, but I'm still firin'!!! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

[wist43]

To my above comments suggesting 800ish yards... no way do I see 8 TD's. 3-5 is more likely.

The Packers could very likely have the fewest rushing TD's in the league next year... who's going to punch it in from the 1???

I think it's pretty obvious that they don't have anyone on the roster that can fill that role.

[RashanGary]

Between the 20's they may be able to spread the field, which might make for some running room, but if a defense decides to just shut the run down, they're done.

This is what happened in the Red Zone last year. I'm hopefull that hte Oline is much improved in the strength department. Between the 20's when teams played the pass, the run was effective. If the defense keyed up to stop the run like almost every team does in the redzone when it takes less defenders to cover the short field, we were just plain dominated.

I think your estimate will be very accurate if the oline is equal to last years oline. If you go off the past only to predict the future and don't take into account any type of growth I think this is a good guess. If you beleive 2nd year players typically make a huge jump then I think this redzone prediction might be proven wrong.

I acctually think our bigest improvement on offense is going to be the Olines ability to get a push in the redzone this year. If we can do that, Morency and the whole team will look much better. Hell, I'm picking playoffs so I better think this is happening or I'd be pretty blind to reality.

[wist43]

I expect Colledge and Spitz will be bigger and stronger, but that's not saying much... those guys were tossed around pretty easily last year.

And Wells has already had a couple of offseasons under his belt - he's not going to get any "bigger or stronger" (I use those terms loosely wrt Wells). He's as good as any C in the league in space, getting to the second level, and in getting out in front of runs to the outside; but, inside he just gets beat up and run over... no way can you expect that he'll ever be able "to get movement" up front. He's a positional blocker, and the best he can do is try to ride the DT/NT out of the play in the direction the defender wants to go. It's not like he has the bulk/strength to turn a guy and move him out.

Add to that the small RB's... even the Kool-Aid drinkers can't try to make the argument that Morency and Jackson can "move the pile".

Even taking into consideration an improvement in strength from Colledge and Spitz, I fully expect a repeat of what we were seeing at the end of last year, hopefully with less max protecting, but I really don't expect the interior of that line to be able to consistently hold up w/o help from the RB or TE.

[RashanGary]

Everyone is talking about RB's, TE's and WR's as the biggest potential difference makers on this team. I, however, think the Oline is going to make or break the season. Morency can run through holes if he has them. Jackson can run through holes if he has them. Jennings and Driver can get open and catch the ball. Favre can throw the ball. Bubba can be a redzone target if given the oppertunity. The whole key is if the line can pave the way.

If we get good play out of your interior line and Clif/Tausch keep it up for one more year we'll be a good offense, even in the redzone. If our interior flops like Wist is suggesting, the offense (including Morencey, Favre and Franks) are doomed.

[BallHawk]

I agree that our RBs aren't going to be able to move the pile. That's why I think that, in those 3rd and short situations, we're going to be seeing our FBs more.

Brandon Miree isn't huge, but he's 6 foot, 235, which should be able to get the job done.

As a note, look out to see how Corey White out of UAB does. He's 6'1, 240 pounds and has pretty good speed, for his size. He played RB in his college career and over 4 years racked up just a little under 2,000 yards. The Packers' site lists him as FB. He could be a sleeper to make the team.

[wist43]

I'm not saying they're going to "flop"... I've never used the term; but, I do think we're looking at a repeat of last year, with marginal improvement.

But given where they were, marginal improvement isn't going to cut it... the max protecting the HAD to use last year just killed the offense last year. When they didn't max protect, Favre was either running for his life, or the play was a 3 step drop and the ball was gone b/4 the blocking broke down.

Favre's ability to evade the rush, and Greens toughness and ability to move the pile and pick up that tough 3rd and 1, went a long way toward giving the illusion that the line was getting the job done; but, with Green gone, I think that makes it that much tougher on everybody else - especially Favre.

[RashanGary]

Wynn has a chance too. Wynn is the type of guy who could have a good early career while his body is yougn and able but if his work ethic sin't there, you let him fly after his rookie deal.

[RashanGary]

If they are as bad as last year, that is a flop IMO. I agree completely that Favre/Green gave an illusion that things were OK. Not Green so much becuase he wasn't very good but Favre was incredible at taking what was given even when it was a complete break down.


They have to be better and not just a little for this offense to be good in the redzone. If they are even close to last year, I consider that a complete flop. If we really have good guys, they'll play good in their 2nd year starting.