Turkish Incursion Into Iraq

[Joemailman]

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0720456320070608?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&pageNumber=2

Big Turkey incursion in Iraq would be U.S. nightmare

Thu Jun 7, 2007 9:06PM EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A large-scale invasion of Northern Iraq by Turkish forces would be a nightmare for the United States and could destabilize the one part of the country that is relatively calm, analysts said on Thursday.

A Web site report on Wednesday that 50,000 Turkish troops poured into Northern Iraq to fight Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas set off alarms in Washington, where U.S. officials scurried to try to find out what, if anything, had happened.

While Turkish, U.S. and Iraqi officials denied any major incursion had taken place, a military source said Turkish troops conducted a limited raid across the mountainous border.

While such operations are not uncommon, analysts said the incident focused attention on the possibility that recent attacks in Turkey blamed on the PKK could prompt major Turkish retaliation against rebels that use Iraq as a safe haven.

Ankara blames the PKK for more than 30,000 deaths since the rebels launched their armed campaign for an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey in 1984.

The risk, analysts said, is that Turkey might become drawn into a wider conflict with Iraqi Kurds even if it initially sought to conduct a small-scale operation, and that other countries, including Iran, might also feel emboldened.

"It could open a Pandora's box for the quagmire -- the fiasco -- in Iraq to turn into a regional quagmire, with regional countries starting to fight wars on Iraqi territory," said Brookings Institution analyst Omer Taspinar.

Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the CSIS think tank in Washington, said, "A complete mess in the North of Iraq creates problems for everything we are trying to do in Iraq. It creates problems for our deep defense relationship with Turkey and it creates an even more chaotic situation in a part of the world where we are desperate for less chaos."

'UNFORSEEN CONSEQUENCES'

The roughly 155,000 U.S. troops in Iraq are already stretched fighting the insurgency and the last thing Washington wants is fighting in northern Iraq, which won autonomy from Saddam Hussein in 1991 and is among the least violent parts of the country.

The United States has made no secret of its views and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates made the point again on Sunday, telling reporters he hoped "there would not be a unilateral military action across the border into Iraq."

Analysts said there is growing public sentiment in Turkey for its government to do more to combat the PKK following a series of attacks, but they said there appears to be little appetite in Turkey for any major cross-border action.

"Both the civilian and the military (leadership) do not really want to do an operation that the U.S. government strongly opposes. They have also learned a lesson from Israel's experience with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, so they don't want to get into a situation where they are trapped or will be in a protracted conflict," said Zeyno Baran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington.

"My concern is that at some point they will have to do something, which is probably going to be limited. The big question is that the intentions could be small scale but ... sometimes there are unforeseen consequences," she added.

A U.S. official said the key indicator on what Ankara will do will be whether there are additional attacks inside Turkey blamed on the PKK. The group, which the United States views as a terrorist organization, killed seven paramilitary policemen in Turkey this week in the single deadliest attack in a year.

"I think they are likely to hold back short of more significant terrorist attacks inside Turkey," the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said.


This story is getting little play in the American press (Surprise, Surprise). If it becomes worse, it would pose a real problem for the U.S. It would pit two American allies, the Iraqi Kurds and the Turks, against each other. It would be just one more obstacle in attempts to stabilize Iraq.

[Freak Out]

The last thing the Turks want is an Independent Kurdistan...they have been fighting it's creation for years and would be hard pressed to accept one now. The Kurds believe a part of Turkey is theirs and want it back to add to the reclaimed Iraqi lands we helped them get. It can still get ugly.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The Turks want to get into the E.U. The last thing they want to do is piss off one of their biggest backers for doing so.

[BallHawk]

The Turks want to get into the E.U. The last thing they want to do is piss off one of their biggest backers for doing so.

Turkey getting to the EU, regardless of this, is a longshot any way. Economic divide within the country and political disagreements with many other member countries have strained discussions of acceptance into The EU. That's not even to mention the Turkish occupation of Cyprus.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Turkey getting to the EU, regardless of this, is a longshot any way. Economic divide within the country and political disagreements with many other member countries have strained discussions of acceptance into The EU. That's not even to mention the Turkish occupation of Cyprus.

It is a longshot, but that doesn't mean they aren't striving for it. Personally, I say let them in.

[BallHawk]

Turkey getting to the EU, regardless of this, is a longshot any way. Economic divide within the country and political disagreements with many other member countries have strained discussions of acceptance into The EU. That's not even to mention the Turkish occupation of Cyprus.

It is a longshot, but that doesn't mean they aren't striving for it. Personally, I say let them in.

The US has supported adding Turkey to the EU, but a lot of pundits think that adding a Large Islamic Country to the EU would upset the balance and make things a lot more difficult for the other countries. I can see the cause for concern and tend to agree with them, but the human rights issues in Turkey are horrible and those defintely need to improve over the next few years. The issue with the Kurds is a big problem they need to sort out.

However, this is all in naught unless Turkey recognizes Cyprus as an official county, Cyprus being an EU member.

It's also of concern that only a very small amount of Turkey is in Europe. I believe it something less then 5%. If you allow Turkey in you have a member state that borders Syria, Iraq, and Iran. That could play out some awkward situations in the future.

[Joemailman]

The Turks want to get into the E.U. The last thing they want to do is piss off one of their biggest backers for doing so.

If they have to choose between joining the EU and preventing an independent Kurdistan, they may forego the EU. An independent Kurdistan carved out of southern Turkey and Northern Iraq could be a relatively powerful and rich country because a good portion of Iraq's oil wells are located in the Kurdish portion of Iraq.

[falco]

Not to mention the political crisis ongoing in the country with the new president and his wife's choice of clothing.

[BallHawk]

Not to mention the political crisis ongoing in the country with the new president and his wife's choice of clothing.

The President isn't really new, he's been in office for 7 years. Or do you mean Prime Minister Erdogan?

[Freak Out]

Not to mention the political crisis ongoing in the country with the new president and his wife's choice of clothing.

I believe he is talking about Islamic dress.

[falco]

Not to mention the political crisis ongoing in the country with the new president and his wife's choice of clothing.

The President isn't really new, he's been in office for 7 years. Or do you mean Prime Minister Erdogan?

I'm actually talking about the new president elect, I believe, who was forced to resign the position when the generals of the country told him they wouldn't accept a president whose wife wore the traditional Muslim garb. I thought he had been elected, and now they are having new elections next month, but perhaps I was wrong and he was only a candidate.

[BallHawk]

Ah, I think I know who you're talking about now.

[falco]

Ah, I think I know who you're talking about now.

It says a lot about the strength of your democracy when a series of generals has veto power over your executive branch.

[BallHawk]

Ah, I think I know who you're talking about now.

It says a lot about the strength of your democracy when a series of generals has veto power over your executive branch.

Yeah, pretty sad, isn't it?

[Tarlam!]

My compliments, PackerRats.

This thread and the ensuing discussion is excellent and world clas, in my himble opinion!

Living in Europe, I am a front row witness to what you have been discussing.

I demand Turkey be admitted to the EU.

My best friend is a Turk. He saved my life! Literally. I will name him Rain ( Cause that's his name) for this.

Rain is the most educated person I have ever met. My family and I have been guests at Rain's house in Istanbul. He has servants. He has an elevator in his private home. Rain is wealthy.

Rain's mother was Jewish. His father was Moslim. Since apparently Jewish people feel only mothers guarantee birthright and Moslims hold Fathers in higher regard, Rain had it made from Day One. The Jews and t6he Moslims recognized him as one of their own!

As mentioned, Rain is the best person I have ever met. He is a Turk and he struggles in an international organization to be ragarded as a person and not a nationality.

Due to Rain's personality. and knowing his nationality, I am compltetely in favour of Turkey's admission to the EU.

I only wish Rain were their Prime Minister. Then, we wouldn't even be dicussing this. It would be so.

[Joemailman]

Ah, I think I know who you're talking about now.

It says a lot about the strength of your democracy when a series of generals has veto power over your executive branch.

Yeah, pretty sad, isn't it?

The military's goal is to maintain a secular government, and prevent Turkey from becoming an Islamic Republic. So while having the military so involved in government is regrettable, one has to hope that they are successful in maintaining a secular Turkey.

[BallHawk]

I'm sure there are many people like Rain, Tar. However, you can't stereotype a country from one person. I'm sure there is a very nice person in Albania. Does that mean Albania should be admitted into the EU.

Speaking of Albania, there's another case that could get interested. Albania is a predominantly Islamic country.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm sure there are many people like Rain, Tar. However, you can't stereotype a country from one person. I'm sure there is a very nice person in Albania. Does that mean Albania should be admitted into the EU.

Speaking of Albania, there's another case that could get interested. Albania is a predominantly Islamic country.

The Albanians love the President.
:D

[BallHawk]

I'm sure there are many people like Rain, Tar. However, you can't stereotype a country from one person. I'm sure there is a very nice person in Albania. Does that mean Albania should be admitted into the EU.

Speaking of Albania, there's another case that could get interested. Albania is a predominantly Islamic country.

The Albanians love the President.
:D

Who doesn't? :wink:

[MJZiggy]

http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t252/mjziggy/IMG_0889.jpg

[MJZiggy]

http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t252/mjziggy/IMG_0889.jpg

[BallHawk]

http://eatourbrains.com/EoB/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/george-w-bush.jpg

This thread will self-destruct in 5, 4, 3........

[Tarlam!]

I'm sure there are many people like Rain, Tar. However, you can't stereotype a country from one person. I'm sure there is a very nice person in Albania. Does that mean Albania

I believe I understand your point.

My point is this: Even though Rain is well off, he is not in a minority when it comes to how nTurkisk people feel.

The "Nappy Heads", a term I first heard from a native of Idaho's wife, who happens to be of Turkish origin, do not represent what the majority feel.

A huge Kurdish minority (also "nappy heads") impact popular vote counts. There is a lot of dark agedness in Turkey.

Nonetheless, I want them in the EU rather than in the Arab League.

[BallHawk]

As a whole, I find it kind of foolish to have a country in the EU when only 3% of that country's landmass lies in Europe. It'd be like, if Russia owned land mass in Canada, making them part of NAFTA. It just doesn't make sense. I don't want to see Turkey in the Arab League either, but Turkey's got a lot of stuff they need to sort out before the can be considered a sensible choice for the EU.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Is the Ukraine technically in Europe?

[BallHawk]

Geographically, it's 100% in Europe.. It's not a member of the EU, though. It's chances weren't high a few years ago, but after the so called "Orange Revolution," Ukraine is hoping to be admitted to the EU in 2017. I'm a skeptic, though. The economy has got a lot of things they need to sort out.

[Tarlam!]

As a whole, I find it kind of foolish to have a country in the EU when only 3% of that country's landmass lies in Europe.

So Iceland, according to your reasoning, is in limbo forever, since it is almost equally divided into the Euro plate and the American plate?

Ethnically, they have as much in common with America as, say, the outer Mongolians...

[Tarlam!]

I don't want to see Turkey in the Arab League either, but Turkey's got a lot of stuff they need to sort out before the can be considered a sensible choice for the EU.

What a great appraisal! You have this observed perfectly IMHO (H= humble).

But, we are faced with choices in life; I wish Poland would F---K off out of the EU with its current regime. Nobody saw it coming, but Poland has a whacko Sibling run executive terrorising the EU today. Who'd have thought? (Well, I would, but I am brilliant!)

If we don't take Turkey, after abusing their NATO status for 40 years and more, the Arab League certainly will. So far, Turkey resists, but how many slaps in their proverbial face should/will they accept, if even Romania/Bulgaria gains admission to the EU??

[Joemailman]

http://www.cwnews.com/news/viewstory.cfm?recnum=51461

Vatican will support Turkey for EU membership, prelate says

Rome, May. 30, 2007 (CWNews.com) - The Vatican's Secretary of State has signaled that the Holy See will support Turkey's bid for membership in the European Union.

Speaking to the Italian daily La Stampa, Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone (bio - news) said that "Turkey has come a long way" toward democracy and respect for human rights. The European community can accept the membership of an overwhelming Islamic society, he said, as long as "fundamental rules of cohabitation" are firmly in place.

Cardinal Bertone made his comments as the world's leading Orthodox prelate, the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople, pressed the Turkish government to recognize the autonomy of the Orthodox Church.

Patriarch Bartholomew told a group of visiting German lawmakers that he had asked the Turkish government to overturn an existing rule that bars a non-Turk from being elected Patriarch of Constantinople. The Orthodox prelate suggested that Turkey adopt the policies of Egypt and Syria, which grant automatic citizenship to the patriarchs of Alexandria and Antioch. The Turkish government has not yet replied to his request, Bartholomew said.

Patriarch Bartholomew has been demanding greater respect for religious freedom in Turkey, and critics of the Turkish bid for EU membership have pointed to the Patriarch's complaints that Christians do not receive equal treatment under Turkish law.

In his conversation with La Stampa, Cardinal Bertone acknowledged that the Turkish government resists recognition of Christianity and Judaism. Turkey, he pointed out, is an officially secular country, in which "secularism is exalted not as mere secularity but as a system of belief." This ideology of militant secularism, he added, would clash with the Christian heritage that dominates European culture. Nonetheless, the cardinal said that honest dialogue could allow for Turkish participation in the European community.

Prior to his election as Pope Benedict XVI (bio - news), then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger expressed serious concerns about the prospect that an Islamic nation would join the European Union. But during his trip to Turkey last November the Pontiff eased his stance, and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that during a private meeting, the Pontiff had said that he would support Turkey's application for EU membership.

Vatican officials did not confirm that report, but said that the Holy See would "look favorably" on Turkey's membership drive as long as the Ankara government respected the principles of religious freedom and equal justice under law.

The Turkish government is likely to be under a microscope by the rest of Europe to see how the new President conducts himself when the election occurs later this summer. Religious freedom, I suspect, will be a huge issue regarding whether Turkey gets into the EU.

[BallHawk]

There's an interesting article in the current Foreign Affairs issue about Turkey rediscovering the Middle East and becoming more and more of a player. The issue is on newsstands now and you can pick it up, or leaf through it, at any Borders or Barnes and Nobles.

Here's a link to the first 500 words of the article. (Foreign Affairs are pricks to people who don't subscribe to them)

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701faessay86408/f-stephen-larrabee/turkey-rediscovers-the-middle-east.html

[Merlin]

I wish the EU would just go away. The last thing we need is more countries to join this bunch of candy asses! Although I also would like to see Turkey in the EU and not the Arab League if there had to be a choice between the two. Turkey is a back stabbing two faced country to the United States. They want our money but when it comes to us using a base there, the answer is NO. They are not unlike many countries in the world that will take US monetary support but won't support us on any of our policies. What I don't understand is how we the American people allow our tax dollars to be used to support countries like Turkey. I know it's a tit for tat kind of world when it comes to foreign relations, but give me a break. At what point do we close the wallet because we get nothing in return?

As far as Turkey "invading" Iraq, that is really old news. I seriously doubt the Turks ever really left Northern Iraq. The Kurds are a resilient people and they will crush the Turks at every turn. Why? Even though we openly support Turkey in a lot of ways, we also support the Kurds and their cause. Not only with money but also with weapons and intelligence.

We need to Split Irag into 4 states: Kurds, Shiite, Sunni & Christian. Since most of the country is segregated that way, I don't see it as an issue. Baghdad and the surrounding area could be their Washington D.C. and the oil revenue split evenly by population within the country of each group by percentage of population. Some day, maybe 100 years from now, they will all learn to play together. It only took us about 100 years to pull together as a nation. Expecting more from them then we did ourselves is unrealistic. Once the four states are established, pull the troops out. All of them, and then send Iraq a bill for our work there, although I am sure we will forgive it because that's the kind of liberal thinking we have running our country. Then as a gesture to the rest of the world, pull our military out of every country that does not support us. Build a larger Navy and deploy fleets off of the shores of those countries that are trouble spots PERMANENTLY. Making sure to have those "military exercises" on a daily basis.

[Joemailman]

So we invade Iraq, occupy the country, destroy their infrastructure, lure in al-Qaeda, plunge them into a civil war, and then send them a bill for everything we've done there? :bang: