TED THOMPSON- BREAKING THE TRADING BANDIT DOWN MORE

[Bretsky]

THE JAVON WALKER TRADE ENDED UP BEING

Walker and a 5th (139) for Colledge (47), a 4th (109), and a 6th (183)


Beyond that trade, he traded down 16 spots from 36 for #52 and 75.

He passed on some first round talent to land Greg Jennings (52) and Jason Spitz (75)

YOU CHOOSE; WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE CHAD JACKSON OR THOSE TWO ?


He also traded down from 93 to 109 and 183...


Last year TT was rolling extra picks like crazy; call me harsh for saying this, but so far one out of 11 picks have worked out. Hope the odds are a heck of a lot better this year.

[RashanGary]

Walker -> 39 -> 47, 109, 183

[Bretsky]

1 - Hawk
2a - Jackson
2b - Colledge
3 - Hodge

or

1 - Hawk
2a - Colledge
2b - Jennings
3a - Hodge
3b - Spitz

[RashanGary]

He dropped down 8 spots for 3 picks.....I don't mind that...

[RashanGary]

I liek the 2nd better Bretsky and there are still 2 or 3 picks to go from those trades.

[RashanGary]

I take it back...I was gonna say Jennings will do as good as Jackson but then I realized Jackson went to NE

[Fosco33]

Walker -> 39 -> 47, 109, 183

He also gave up 139.

[Deputy Nutz]

I know Thompson's trading down syndrome is a bit frustrating. He believe that more picks, gives the team the best chance at rebuilding this franchise.

Simply put, the Packers front office was not impressed with Chad Jackson. I don't know why, they knew that New England wanted him. I think it might have hurt them a bit with trade of Javon Walker to Denver. If I had the access to these players like an NFL organization does, then I could probably tell you why the Packers passed on Jackson. The fact is, they got a likely starter in Colledge, and a kick returner and right now a 4th or 5th reciever and kick returner for the 2006 season.

I heard a couple of scouts claim that this was not a strong recieving group at the top, it has some depth, but teams could easily find a reciever that could make a bigger splash and impact on a team in later rounds than with the first couple of guys at the top of the list.

[Fosco33]

Chad Jackson = Chris Chambers. Tough call - but we need more picks b/c we have plenty of holes to fill. That is - you get more quality players in the draft than searching in FA. It had to be done but it's a tough one.

[mraynrand]

Bretsky,

It think you're obsessing over specific players. Sherman used to do this. he got all jacked up over a particular guy with certain measurables and then moved around to get the guy, losing picks in the process. Some other GMs stay put and follow their board and their needs. Others like TT stockpile picks. On the assumption that a draft pick in any round has a certain probability of making it as a starter or competent back up, and a certain probability of failure, you can see the logic in getting more picks. Lets say the percentage is 50% - so TT should get 5 guys from this draft. If he hadn't made a move, he has 7 picks and maybe gets 3 or 4. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would guess that the probability of success drops through the rounds. So if you stockpile picks in rounds 1-4, you're probably better off than stockpiling 5-7. Now if you factor in the fact that TT has drafted pretty well in the past, you're percentages go up. So I think you may have a difference of +2 solid players with TT's system.

I don't but the 'impact player' argument either. The number of guys who make the probowl drops from 50% in the top 10 picks to less than 25% in the late first round. So you really need top 10 for a really good shot at impact players and after that, you'd better get some guys that can ably fill out your roster and hope for a gem here and there.

Only time will tell which guys survive, but I bet TT will have a better overall number than other teams, just by virtue of getting more picks.

[RashanGary]

35, 37, 139 = 550 + 530 + 36.5 = 1116.5
52, 75, 47, 109, 148, 183 = 380 + 215 + 430 + 76 + 32.2 + 19.2 = 1152.4

Those are the three picks that were originally traded and the picks that we got in place. At the end of the day T.T. got value for what he traded.

[Bretsky]

35, 37, 139 = 550 + 530 + 36.5 = 1116.5
52, 75, 47, 109, 148, 183 = 380 + 215 + 430 + 76 + 32.2 + 19.2 = 1152.4

Those are the three picks that were originally traded and the picks that we got in place. At the end of the day T.T. got value for what he traded.

NUMBER WISE the only deal he lost out on was the last deal.

[HarveyWallbangers]

THE JAVON WALKER TRADE ENDED UP BEING

Walker and a 5th (139) for Colledge (47), a 4th (109), and a 6th (183)


Beyond that trade, he traded down 16 spots from 36 for #52 and 75.

He passed on some first round talent to land Greg Jennings (52) and Jason Spitz (75)

YOU CHOOSE; WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE CHAD JACKSON OR THOSE TWO ?


He also traded down from 93 to 109 and 183...


Last year TT was rolling extra picks like crazy; call me harsh for saying this, but so far one out of 11 picks have worked out. Hope the odds are a heck of a lot better this year.

Depends if the Packers had Jennings or Jackson rated higher on their board. A lot of teams were sour on Jackson because of his lack of production.

[Bretsky]

LISTENING TO TT"s PRESS CONFERENCE.


Cliffy Cristl just asked what will TT do if none of the young receivers blossom and the RB's don't recover from injury. He's scooping for a negative slant.

The only silly think TT said was we thing Robert Ferguson is a very good NFL receiver...............other than that he sounded OK

He also denied they had Jennings rated above Jackson but implied it was close and they really liked Jennings cause of his ability to run after the catch.

[BF4MVP]

I think the trade would have looked a lot better if he hadn't traded away the last third round pick..That was overkill.

[Bretsky]

I think the trade would have looked a lot better if he hadn't traded away the last third round pick..That was overkill.

I THOUGHT FOR SURE TT traded away the third for a fourth and fifth, but when I heard it was a 4th and 6th I thought WTF ?

[RashanGary]

We really have to let this play out. I can see a lot of potential. I love Colledge. I think he is an OT/OG who is the exact spitting image of Wahle. I think Jennings is a lot like Holmes....He's fast, fluid, great hands, solid route running ability and lack of real weaknesses.

The other guys are all going to be a little bit of a project but those first 3 should all be pretty major contributors.

[RashanGary]

LOL BF4....That was like WTF is going on here......I think we could have done without that one.

I'm gonna let it play out but I got the same feeling when he did that as I did every time Sherman made a move.

[mraynrand]

"I THOUGHT FOR SURE TT traded away the third for a fourth and fifth, but when I heard it was a 4th and 6th I thought WTF ?"


But he only traded down 1/2 a round (16 picks) from 93 to 109. If he had dropped more, then a 5th probably would have been warrented. The key is number of players. With two late round picks, now TT has two, instead of 1 chance to pick up a Levens, Driver or Tauscher.

[RashanGary]

Maybe he just didn't have anyone on his board rated too high.....Whatever, overall he got value wich is something Sherman never did.

[Bretsky]

"I THOUGHT FOR SURE TT traded away the third for a fourth and fifth, but when I heard it was a 4th and 6th I thought WTF ?"


But he only traded down 1/2 a round (16 picks) from 93 to 109. If he had dropped more, then a 5th probably would have been warrented. The key is number of players. With two late round picks, now TT has two, instead of 1 chance to pick up a Levens, Driver or Tauscher.


I don't know where that value chart is, but several noted on that last deal, TT was completely hosed and didn't get fair value. He did fine on the others.

[RashanGary]

Good point myrad..or whatever the hell your name is :)

[RashanGary]

Overall B he came out on top...I thought that last one was kind of bad but maybe T.T. has a bunch of players all rated the same and he thinks he can get them in the next round.

[BF4MVP]

LOL BF4....That was like WTF is going on here......I think we could have done without that one.
LOL I was like alright, the Packers are pickin now........WTF?

[Tarlam!]

TT did Green Bay a great service on Day 1. He stayed put and picked up the next coming of Ray Nitschke. He dealt NE a curve ball, because he knew his pick would be available later. That was plain intelligent.

He got rid of a potential cancer and made it sound like it was his idea. That will give him some leverage when dealing with similar situations. BTW, a lot of the anti-GB sentiments can be tracked back to Sherman's promises, that TT had zero to do with.

He picked up the receiver that he said "was the best at the bowl/combine(?)", the one he wanted all along, and he did it with a view of drafting an electrifying KR. His FA signings at WR, he believes, were better than what the draft offered early on. I tend to agree with him. AND, if Fergie finally delivers on his "potential", we're set there anyways.

He also took a coupla decent O-lineman. I love what I have read about Colledge so far, and he looks like a nasty one.

Now, the one pick we all agree was brilliant was Hodge. Come on, this is a steal for us!

I only wish Detroit had let Calhoun get to us, I feel sure TT would have nabbed him with the next pick. I hope HH scouted him all wrong, we will see him twice a year!

[packrulz]

TT pulled the trigger on the last trade because there are still some good players to be had on day 2. He didn't have a 6th rounder & can still grab a good DE/RB/TE/WR. Kampman was a 5th round pick, Driver was a 7th I think. I could see drafting Owen Daniels, Jason Pociask, or Jonathan Orr.

[Tarlam!]

.... or Jonathan Orr.


Surely you jest! A badger to GB? :lol:

I was also gonna suggest him, but everyone is high on D. Williams....

[Fritz]

"Bretsky,

It think you're obsessing over specific players."

Brets, I'd have to agree with Mraynrand on this. It was Sherman's problem, too. The only difference is that I think you probably obsess over players who are better than the ones Sherman obsessed over.

Even so, I'm not sold on Chad Jackson. He is a very Mike Sherman kind of pick: ooh, the measurables! But where was the production??

I also think it's a mistake to think that TT believed that he was replacing JWalk with Jennings. Jennings is a different animal altogether - a guy who can step in and return kicks and punts immediately (wouldn't it be nice to see someone who can actually do that well?) and may develop into a nice #3 receiver down the road.

I am very, very happy with TT so far. He defused the Walker situation by parlaying a potential cancer into numerous draft picks. Whether they pan out is anyone's guess. But I much prefer watching Ted at work to cringing as Shermy traded up, over and over, to take guys like Donnell Washington, Joey Thomas, Kenny Peterson, and of course BJ Sander.

[FritzDontBlitz]

i'm guessing tt thinks he can get a wr with comparable size, speed and talent in the later rounds.

and

maybe javon made him shy away from wr's from florida PERIOD.

i wanted jackson, but i think jennings is gonna be a serious improvement over antonio chatman as a kr/3rd or 4th wr. the pack can still pick up a big wr in the later rounds to mold into the west coast offense.

i just like the way tt drafts, though. he sticks to his guns and looks for players that will give the team depth at the weaker positions, i can't argue with that....

[FritzDontBlitz]

the biggest knock on tt's first day in the draft has been "he didn't get brett favre what he needed?"

what, brett doesn't need a defense?

[MJZiggy]

This is the most happy and relaxed I've seen TT in months.
http://www.packers.com/pg/?gallery=2006-04-29d&id=5

(can't get it to post, so here's the link.)

[Scott Campbell]

Ted was all about abusing the Sherm clone GM's yesterday. He prowled around looking for teams that fell in love with the next BJ Sander, and then helped them land their man - for a modest fee.

[Patler]

There are 32 NFL teams with rosters of 53 players. That's 1696 NFL players. Even if you presume a 10 year career for "good" or "solid" players, which is generous, that's an average of 170 coming out of each draft class. In reality, the number of first through fourth year players is extremely high, and the number of players with 5+ years is much lower.

My point is simply this, with decent scouting it should be relatively routine to be able to find players on the second day of the draft who will help your team, at least for a while. By trading down and having more picks, you can make a mistake or two, have a player's career end due to injury and still be OK. With only 6 or 7 picks, you can't afford a mistake, or get through an injury, without having to scrape the bottom of the barrel for a replacement.

In two of his drafts, 2002 & 2004, Sherman had only 6 picks, and each year 1 was free agent compensation. He had only five of his own regular picks. Donnell Washington, BJ Sander. Corey Williams, and the trade for Terry Glenn each cost two draft picks. He got nothing for Glenn from Dallas. Thats 8 draft picks invested in a DT who is part of the rotation, a third year DT who has yet to play, a receiver who catches passes for the Cowboys, and a soon to be ex-punter.

In 2003 he had 9 picks, but 4 were free agent compensation, again he had only 5 of his regular 7 picks. Kenny Peterson, James Lee and Hunter Hillenmeyer each cost two pick, He traded one for Harris (good move). For seven picks he got a good cornerback, a lineman who plays on occassion and a linebacker who makes tackles for the Bears.

With 15 draft picks he had Sander, Williams, Washington, Peterson and Harris to show for it. With so few draft picks, Sherman could not afford any draft mistakes, and he made numerous.

Draft picks are indeed valuable.

[Bretsky]

There are 32 NFL teams with rosters of 53 players. That's 1696 NFL players. Even if you presume a 10 year career for "good" or "solid" players, which is generous, that's an average of 170 coming out of each draft class. In reality, the number of first through fourth year players is extremely high, and the number of players with 5+ years is much lower.

My point is simply this, with decent scouting it should be relatively routine to be able to find players on the second day of the draft who will help your team, at least for a while. By trading down and having more picks, you can make a mistake or two, have a player's career end due to injury and still be OK. With only 6 or 7 picks, you can't afford a mistake, or get through an injury, without having to scrape the bottom of the barrel for a replacement.


In two of his drafts, 2002 & 2004, Sherman had only 6 picks, and each year 1 was free agent compensation. He had only five of his own regular picks. Donnell Washington, BJ Sander. Corey Williams, and the trade for Terry Glenn each cost two draft picks. He got nothing for Glenn from Dallas. Thats 8 draft picks invested in a DT who is part of the rotation, a third year DT who has yet to play, a receiver who catches passes for the Cowboys, and a soon to be ex-punter.

In 2003 he had 9 picks, but 4 were free agent compensation, again he had only 5 of his regular 7 picks. Kenny Peterson, James Lee and Hunter Hillenmeyer each cost two pick, He traded one for Harris (good move). For seven picks he got a good cornerback, a lineman who plays on occassion and a linebacker who makes tackles for the Bears.

With 15 draft picks he had Sander, Williams, Washington, Peterson and Harris to show for it. With so few draft picks, Sherman could not afford any draft mistakes, and he made numerous.

Draft picks are indeed valuable.


GREAT POST; LET'S MAKE SURE THE MIGHTY TANK SEES THIS ONE AS WELL

[Patler]

Jennings may not have ideal size, but scouting reports show two things making him valuable as a traditional WC offense type receiver:

1. He runs precise routes, getting initial separation from the DB coming out of his move.
2. He gets yardage after the catch.

Now I am in no way saying he will be as good, but those are the attributes Sterling Sharpe had. Sharpe was not tall, and did not have blazing speed. He was very solid and very strong, I'm sure more so than Jennings. But a shorter receiver who gets open and gets yardage after the catch can fit well in a traditional WC offense.

[Guiness]

He dropped down 8 spots for 3 picks.....I don't mind that...

But as pointed out, the chart doesn't really apply here. The general concensus is that the draft was 40 some odd players deep, then the talent level dropped off. So what he really did was drop below the threshold of perceived NFL talent.

Not saying I agree with that analysis, just pointing it out...

[Partial]

Lets go ahead and remember that Steve Smith was taken in the 3rd round(so was TO) and that he was initially drafted as a returner and was often knocked for his lack of size and ability.

Steve smith turned out pretty ok.


I think this guy will be fine. He's a student of the game

[Packers4Ever]

THE JAVON WALKER TRADE ENDED UP BEING

Walker and a 5th (139) for Colledge (47), a 4th (109), and a 6th (183)


Beyond that trade, he traded down 16 spots from 36 for #52 and 75.

He passed on some first round talent to land Greg Jennings (52) and Jason Spitz (75)

YOU CHOOSE; WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE CHAD JACKSON OR THOSE TWO ?


He also traded down from 93 to 109 and 183...





Last year TT was rolling extra picks like crazy; call me harsh for saying this, but so far one out of 11 picks have worked out. Hope the odds are a heck of a lot better this year.

Bretsky, I've had this feeling for the past couple weeks that the tide is turning in TT's favor - capped off by this weekend's booty! Much less bad-mouthing. Of course I haven't been over to JSO today yet.

William Henderson is on ESPN again this noon, talking about the Pack and doing one heck of a job. That man has a future after GB....
Judy

[Bretsky]

Denver gets Javon Walker for #37

Green Bay trades:
2nd rd (37th pick), and 5th rd (139th pick)
to Atlanta for:
2nd rd (47th pick), 3rd rd (93rd), and 5th rd (148th pick)

Green Bay trades:
3rd rd (93rd pick) to St Louis for 4th (109) and 6th (183)

Green Bay trades:
4th rd (109th pick) to Phily for 4th (115) and 6th (185th)

------------------------

So, in total TT parlayed Walker into a 2nd, 4th, and two 6th round picks... 5th rounders were eliminated because we just swapped picks.

The ultimate take:
Rd Pick Player Position
2 47 Daryn Colledge OG
4 115 Will Blackmon CB
6 183 Johnny Jolly DT
6 185 Tyrone Culver FS

--------------------------

It will be a while before we have a handle on these guys, but the main guy in the deal is Colledge. From there TT's plan seems to have been to hide behind a smoke screen of players, in the hopes that one or two of them will turn out to be half way decent.

So for one of the top 10 WR's in the NFL, the Packers received an OG with potential and some projects we all hope turn into something.

Time will tell on this deal, but early prognosis is Advantage Denver.

[MJZiggy]

If anyone finds footage of Hendo going off, I'd love to see it.

[Rastak]

If anyone finds footage of Hendo going off, I'd love to see it.


I saw the entire thing, he didn't "go off". He stated that Kiper rated him as a bust and he proved him wrong then he defended Favre when asked if he (Favre) was selfish. He also stated that Favres picks were the result of tipped balls and such....that was sort of lame but the rest of it was just him defending Favre from negative comments buy a couple of folks....

[MJZiggy]

Still, he's one of my all-time favorite players right in there with Butler and Bennett et al and I have been utterly and deeply disappointed in ESPNothing's so-called reporting this offseason and to see Hendo defending his team would be too sweet.

[Patler]

Denver gets Javon Walker for #37

Green Bay trades:
2nd rd (37th pick), and 5th rd (139th pick)
to Atlanta for:
2nd rd (47th pick), 3rd rd (93rd), and 5th rd (148th pick)

Green Bay trades:
3rd rd (93rd pick) to St Louis for 4th (109) and 6th (183)

Green Bay trades:
4th rd (109th pick) to Phily for 4th (115) and 6th (185th)

------------------------

So, in total TT parlayed Walker into a 2nd, 4th, and two 6th round picks... 5th rounders were eliminated because we just swapped picks.

The ultimate take:
Rd Pick Player Position
2 47 Daryn Colledge OG
4 115 Will Blackmon CB
6 183 Johnny Jolly DT
6 185 Tyrone Culver FS

--------------------------

It will be a while before we have a handle on these guys, but the main guy in the deal is Colledge. From there TT's plan seems to have been to hide behind a smoke screen of players, in the hopes that one or two of them will turn out to be half way decent.

So for one of the top 10 WR's in the NFL, the Packers received an OG with potential and some projects we all hope turn into something.

Time will tell on this deal, but early prognosis is Advantage Denver.

The alternative was to get absolutely nothing for him next off season when he became a free agent. TT did not get what Walker was worth, but at least he got something.

[Patler]

Interesting Bretsky, almost the same identical post on another site. Who should be crediting whom????? :smile:

[Patler]

...and now its on here too.

[Bretsky]

Interesting Bretsky, almost the same identical post on another site. Who should be crediting whom????? :smile:

I GET NO CREDIT SHAMROCK; I'M A COPIER BUT I DIDN"T THINK WIST WOULD EVER COME IN HERE AND IT JUST TOO GOOD

[Patler]

Thief! THIEF!!! :lol: :lol:

[Packers4Ever]

If anyone finds footage of Hendo going off, I'd love to see it.

I sure would love to see/hear him AGAIN MJ, I knew Will was classy but he sure proved that much and more to those ESPN "analysts". Somebody could make some $$$ on that footage LOL... :smile:

Judy

By the $$$ I didn't mean you, MJ, :?

[Guiness]

Ouch. Shamrock shows the rough side of his tongue.

[mraynrand]

"So for one of the top 10 WR's in the NFL, the Packers received an OG with potential and some projects we all hope turn into something. "

Some thoughts to chew on:
1) Walker is 27 and this season is (agewise) equivalent to his 7th year
2) He's not one of the top 10 WRs. He may be again, but he has to show it on the field. Either way, by the time he's back to full strength, he'll be in the equivalent of his 8th season.
3) The Packers got rid of a headache/cancer. With multiple examples over the past several years, we're finding out it's overall better to dump these guys. N.E. got rid og Glenn, T.B. got rid of Keyshawn (but recall they paid him and asked him to stay away - a draft pick would have been better). T.B. also had another problem with another WR and traded him to S.D., just like the McKenzie situation in G.B. And of course, there is the T.O. deals
4) Perhaps Walker wasn't as cancerous as T.O., but it could have been a bad situation like McKenzie, and it's important to stress again that this situation is not unique to G.B. and it probably won't ever go away.
5) At least we won't have the endless discussions about what Walker is thinking this offseason. That was debated ad nauseum last off season and the simple answer was that no one really wanted to know what Wlaker was thinking. I imagined an empty skull with dust settling and some flies buzzing around.