Espn rates Donald Driver Overrated

[Charles Woodson]

Glenn is bigger threat in Dallas

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Insider

Updated: June 20, 2007

This is the second in a series of articles about overrated and underrated players. The rankings are based primarily on the 2006 metrics. This week's topic is overrated and underrated wide receivers.

Overrated wide receivers

Donald Driver
For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards.

June 20 Glossary
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.

Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield.

Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.

Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage.

• Complete Glossary

However, it took a huge number of pass attempts for him to amass these figures. When I rank wide receivers, I place the highest value on consistency and explosiveness. Driver certainly wasn't that explosive, as his 7.6 YPA ranked him 48th among wide receivers (of 67 qualifiers).

His 10.3 YPA on bomb passes (30-plus yards downfield) ranked him 39th in the league, and his 10.1 YPA on deep passes (20-29 yards) ranked him 44th.

Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL.

I'm not saying Driver is a bad wide receiver. I just think metrics such as these did not warrant the Pro Bowl starter slot he garnered last year.

Chris Chambers
Chambers isn't considered a great receiver, but his metrics indicate he wasn't even a good receiver last year. Chambers had the lowest YPA (5.1) and success percentage (44.8) of any wide receiver in the NFL in 2006. He ranked no higher than 49th in YPA at any depth level, so he lacked production across the board.

Chambers was hampered by bad quarterback play, but 14 of his 24 missed pass plays last year were drops. Even if some of those other 10 passes had been completed, though, it still wouldn't have brought his overall metrics back up to a respectable level.

Underrated wide receivers

Terry Glenn
Terrell Owens gets the most press in Dallas, but the metrics indicate Glenn was the better receiver in 2006, and it wasn't even close. Glenn had the third-best overall YPA, the ninth-best bomb pass YPA and the seventh-best medium pass YPA.

Contrast that with Owens' ranking in overall YPA (40th), bomb pass YPA (37th) and medium pass YPA (34th), and it is clear Glenn is the more consistent and explosive receiver. Owens is still a productive player, as evidenced by his 13 touchdowns, but Glenn is the far more reliable receiver.

Reggie Brown
Donte Stallworth (who left via free agency) and Kevin Curtis (who signed with the Eagles) have received most of the attention in Philadelphia this offseason, but if the 2006 metrics are any indication, the breakout receiver could be Brown. He ranked 12th in the league with a 9.6 YPA last year, putting him in the company of Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson.

He also ranked in the top 22 in bomb and deep pass YPA and had the sixth-highest medium pass YPA. Opposing defenses might be paying a lot of attention to Curtis this season, and Brown's metrics indicate he could make them pay for it.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.

[packinpatland]

"KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site."

Sometimes you need to throw in a few intangibles, can't go on just 'metrics'.

[drayge]

This ranking system artificially inflates receivers with good O lines, and those that establish the run. It is a different skill-set, but more valuable to teams like the Packers, to consistently gain yardage despite being the sole receiving threat with a poor pass-blocking O line.

[Freak Out]

ESPN is overrated.

[pittstang5]

Driver still rules in my book. Screw the "experts."

[The Leaper]

I agree there is more to it than "metrics". How does the ridiculous block that he threw to spring Jennings' 75 yard TD get factored in here? Ultimately, consistency over time as well as work ethic and character must be factored into a Pro Bowl vote. Driver is a worthy Pro Bowl caliber player based on both tangibles and intangibles.

However, I do tend to agree with the notion that Driver is not an elite receiver. He's a very good receiver, but his limited size can render him less effective in the red zone. He seems to be far more effective between the 20s. Ultimately, to be an elite WR, you need to be able to put points on the board consistently...and Driver, despite rather gaudy reception totals, really hasn't done that. He's never had a double digit TD season.

That is why our offense has bogged down in the red zone. Our WRs aren't big enough to make plays there, and our TEs that used to make plays there now struggle to merely make a catch. Without any real steps toward addressing those concerns this offseason, I expect more struggles in the red zone unless the running game takes a major step forward.

[Partial]

Metrics don't measure how a team surrounds someone it is harder to get Yac, etc.

[Packnut]

ANY measuring system that does'nt take into account the # of times a WR is doubled is'nt worth crap. Driver was doubled the great majority of the time. Also, the more times a WR is thrown to, the more drops he will have.

[KYPack]

This guy is an example of why "statistics guys" know less than they think they do. Yes, DD will stick his nose in there and make the big block for his running mate at the other WR spot. Among players, everybody admires Don for his pro attitude and willingness to run those tough slants over the middle. I'd like to see coach Mac call fewer of those routes, most teams don't run many of 'em now, cause your guys get hurt.

Donald is a tough cookie who lines up to play hard every play + he never bitches. Unlike Terry Glenn, who is a pouter and a whiner. Give me DD over a prima donna like Glenn every time.

[BallHawk]

Donald Driver is no longer underrated like he was a few years ago. However, he is definitely not overrated either.

[Merlin]

So much for the experts....Can I have his overpaid ass job?

[Patler]

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Insider

Updated: June 20, 2007

....

Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL.



Something is fishy with his numbers

Driver had 92 receptions, that's a given.

This guys "success percentage" for Driver will be receptions "and penalty plays that go in the players favor". He credits Driver at 57.6% The MJS lists Driver as having 170 attempts. With 92 receptions his "success percentage" just on pass receptions is 54.12%. Assuming Driver was a +4-6 or so onpenalties, this guy also must assume about 170 attempts to Driver, give or take a couple.

Here is where it gets absurd. He has Driver for 14.4% drops, among the worst in the league. On about 170 passes to him, that would be around 24 or 25 drops!

The MJS has Driver for a career low percentage of drops, 6 drops for 3.5%.

The MJSO has him for 6 drops, and this guy has him for 24 or 25? :shock:

It makes absolutely no sense.

[packinpatland]

Apparently, when he was reading across the stat sheet of his many( too many) metrics, his eyes crossed and he got DD confused with someone else. :eyes:

[Bretsky]

This article is crap. Let's list the WR's who are better WR's than Donald Driver in the NFC


Tory Holt
Steve Smith
Roy Williams
Maybe TO if you eliminate his poor attitude

Any else ??

Not Terry Glenn, not Berrian. He's top 5 in NFC at least.

He's a good #1; not a superstar but still pretty dam good.

[Deputy Nutz]

Once again looking at a player based only on statistics, for shitsakes this isn't baseball.

Here is my only point that should shut ESPN the fuck up, It is not easy catching the football when there is two even three guys covering you, but it is even harder than to run after the catch when two to three tacklers are now waiting for you.

Now ESPN can shut the fuck up.

[Rastak]

You do realize that his metrics are derived from watching every player every play all season long and during the offseason for his yearly book right? He takes into account many factors on all metrics. QB bad decisions for instance are base on ALL the circumstances of a play. Now I don't know what he used for these metrics completely and they ARE subjective but I do take them seriously. Two years ago he said Winfield was one of the worst coverage CB's in the league. Last year he said his metrics had improved. You can agree or disagree with him but he's got a very interesting system and he works harder that all of us on studying this stuff. He basically quit his job two years ago and watched football games all day every day to write a "Bill James" type book on football. I thought it was kinda cool that ESPN hired him and he admited about half the teams buy his book. It is interesting stuff.

[Freak Out]

You do realize that his metrics are derived from watching every player every play all season long and during the offseason for his yearly book right? He takes into account many factors on all metrics. QB bad decisions for instance are base on ALL the circumstances of a play. Now I don't know what he used for these metrics completely and they ARE subjective but I do take them seriously. Two years ago he said Winfield was one of the worst coverage CB's in the league. Last year he said his metrics had improved. You can agree or disagree with him but he's got a very interesting system and he works harder that all of us on studying this stuff. He basically quit his job two years ago and watched football games all day every day to write a "Bill James" type book on football. I thought it was kinda cool that ESPN hired him and he admited about half the teams buy his book. It is interesting stuff.

Ok fine...but nobody calls Driver overrated and gets away with it. :smack:

[Patler]

You do realize that his metrics are derived from watching every player every play all season long and during the offseason for his yearly book right? He takes into account many factors on all metrics. QB bad decisions for instance are base on ALL the circumstances of a play. Now I don't know what he used for these metrics completely and they ARE subjective but I do take them seriously. Two years ago he said Winfield was one of the worst coverage CB's in the league. Last year he said his metrics had improved. You can agree or disagree with him but he's got a very interesting system and he works harder that all of us on studying this stuff. He basically quit his job two years ago and watched football games all day every day to write a "Bill James" type book on football. I thought it was kinda cool that ESPN hired him and he admited about half the teams buy his book. It is interesting stuff.

I don't doubt that he works hard at it, but 25 drops for Driver? When JSO says 6? JSO claims to review every play of every Packer game to determine their stats too (at least they said so in the past). Why are they wrong and he right?

I'm sorry, but DD did not drop one of every 7 passes thrown his way, and that is what this "expert" is saying if DD supposedly had a drop rate of 14.4%

He may have some interesting ways to use the data, but when the data is faulty......

Plus, he obviously attaches a premium to certain things. For receivers its long passes. "YPA on bomb passes"? Yes, obviously a calculation that can be made, BUT IT IS MEANINGLESS for evaluating a receiver. "YPA on bomb passes" can very easily be more dependent on:
1, the QB;
2. pass protection;
4. the ability of the OTHER receivers to demand coverage respect; and
5. play calling (which might take into consideration 1-4)

than it is on the wide receiver being evaluated.

It seems to me that what he is evaluating is the guys FF value more than his real value to his football team.

[Rastak]

You do realize that his metrics are derived from watching every player every play all season long and during the offseason for his yearly book right? He takes into account many factors on all metrics. QB bad decisions for instance are base on ALL the circumstances of a play. Now I don't know what he used for these metrics completely and they ARE subjective but I do take them seriously. Two years ago he said Winfield was one of the worst coverage CB's in the league. Last year he said his metrics had improved. You can agree or disagree with him but he's got a very interesting system and he works harder that all of us on studying this stuff. He basically quit his job two years ago and watched football games all day every day to write a "Bill James" type book on football. I thought it was kinda cool that ESPN hired him and he admited about half the teams buy his book. It is interesting stuff.

I don't doubt that he works hard at it, but 25 drops for Driver? When JSO says 6? JSO claims to review every play of every Packer game to determine their stats too (at least they said so in the past). Why are they wrong and he right?

I'm sorry, but DD did not drop one of every 7 passes thrown his way, and that is what this "expert" is saying if DD supposedly had a drop rate of 14.4%

He may have some interesting ways to use the data, but when the data is faulty......

Plus, he obviously attaches a premium to certain things. For receivers its long passes. "YPA on bomb passes"? Yes, obviously a calculation that can be made, BUT IT IS MEANINGLESS for evaluating a receiver. "YPA on bomb passes" can very easily be more dependent on:
1, the QB;
2. pass protection;
4. the ability of the OTHER receivers to demand coverage respect; and
5. play calling (which might take into consideration 1-4)

than it is on the wide receiver being evaluated.

It seems to me that what he is evaluating is the guys FF value more than his real value to his football team.


You are completely wrong on that last statement. I read a very long article on this guy and his research had NOTHING to do with FF. Why would a guy watch every play for some offensive gaurd for a FF book? I can't argue his numbers because I didn't watch all those plays myself. What he calls a drop and what JSO does is hard to say. I would guess JSO gives the Packers the benefit of the doubt but that's still a large disparity.


Football outsiders has his catch % at 53% ( doesn't break out drops).

[Patler]

You do realize that his metrics are derived from watching every player every play all season long and during the offseason for his yearly book right? He takes into account many factors on all metrics. QB bad decisions for instance are base on ALL the circumstances of a play.

The more I ponder this, the less impressed I am. Lets assume the following:

He works 365 days a year. (I'll bet he doesn't.)
He averages 10hrs/day watching film (I'll bet he doesn't.)

That's 3650 hours to watch 256 regular season games.
Seems like a lot of time? Not really!
856 minutes to analyze one game.
Roughly 6 minutes or so to analyze each play, and record his conclusions for 22 players. (After all, he rates everyone, including linemen, supposedly for EVERY play).

In actuallity, he watches film less than that, I suspect. After all, he writes a book, writes articles and must spend as much time making his calculations and analyzing them as he does watching film.

There are either shortcuts being taken, or a large staff being used which losses consistency.

Yes, he spends more total time than we do, but for all 32 teams. We might very easily know DD (and other Packers) better than he does.

[Patler]

let me try again, my quoted sections are screwed up!

[Patler]

You do realize that his metrics are derived from watching every player every play all season long and during the offseason for his yearly book right? He takes into account many factors on all metrics. QB bad decisions for instance are base on ALL the circumstances of a play. Now I don't know what he used for these metrics completely and they ARE subjective but I do take them seriously. Two years ago he said Winfield was one of the worst coverage CB's in the league. Last year he said his metrics had improved. You can agree or disagree with him but he's got a very interesting system and he works harder that all of us on studying this stuff. He basically quit his job two years ago and watched football games all day every day to write a "Bill James" type book on football. I thought it was kinda cool that ESPN hired him and he admited about half the teams buy his book. It is interesting stuff.

I don't doubt that he works hard at it, but 25 drops for Driver? When JSO says 6? JSO claims to review every play of every Packer game to determine their stats too (at least they said so in the past). Why are they wrong and he right?

I'm sorry, but DD did not drop one of every 7 passes thrown his way, and that is what this "expert" is saying if DD supposedly had a drop rate of 14.4%

He may have some interesting ways to use the data, but when the data is faulty......

Plus, he obviously attaches a premium to certain things. For receivers its long passes. "YPA on bomb passes"? Yes, obviously a calculation that can be made, BUT IT IS MEANINGLESS for evaluating a receiver. "YPA on bomb passes" can very easily be more dependent on:
1, the QB;
2. pass protection;
4. the ability of the OTHER receivers to demand coverage respect; and
5. play calling (which might take into consideration 1-4)

than it is on the wide receiver being evaluated.

It seems to me that what he is evaluating is the guys FF value more than his real value to his football team.


You are completely wrong on that last statement. I read a very long article on this guy and his research had NOTHING to do with FF. Why would a guy watch every play for some offensive gaurd for a FF book? I can't argue his numbers because I didn't watch all those plays myself. What he calls a drop and what JSO does is hard to say. I would guess JSO gives the Packers the benefit of the doubt but that's still a large disparity.


Football outsiders has his catch % at 53% ( doesn't break out drops).

My comment was directed specifically at some of the types of calculations he does, and my example was "YPA on bomb passes" It is a meaningless evaluation for the 5 reasons I gave, except perhaps for FF. It has nothing to do with evaluating his value to his NFL team, but it may have significance for FF

[Packers4Ever]

Driver still rules in my book. Screw the "experts."

You tell 'em, pittstang5, what do KC Joyner and ESPN know anyway?

Donald's still OUR guy !! :wink:

[BooHoo]

ESPN is overrated.

The bad comments about ESPN are underrated.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Sports in general is getting to this stats and metrics based evaluation. You see it in the NBA in the Eff% rating. Baseball has become a stat geeks wet dream with OBP, OPS, situational hitting and pitching, lefty vs righty, expected wins per runs scored, etc.

Football is a very difficult game to do this with on an individual basis. Football is such a different game than either the NBA or MLB as it is far more team oriented and the results are highly influenced on the rest of players on the field. Baseball and basketball are ultimately 1 on 1 contests, thus they lend themselves to this metrics. Not so with football.

Football has much more of a human evaluation component to it than other sports, IMO. The sheer number of players makes it impossible to simply go off of numbers for individuals. Granted there is the QB rating calculator, but even then, it is not the end-all-be-all for judging their ability. The surrounding cast needs to be judged as well when looking at a player.

[packinpatland]

Sports in general is getting to this stats and metrics based evaluation. You see it in the NBA in the Eff% rating. Baseball has become a stat geeks wet dream with OBP, OPS, situational hitting and pitching, lefty vs righty, expected wins per runs scored, etc.

Football is a very difficult game to do this with on an individual basis. Football is such a different game than either the NBA or MLB as it is far more team oriented and the results are highly influenced on the rest of players on the field. Baseball and basketball are ultimately 1 on 1 contests, thus they lend themselves to this metrics. Not so with football.

Football has much more of a human evaluation component to it than other sports, IMO. The sheer number of players makes it impossible to simply go off of numbers for individuals. Granted there is the QB rating calculator, but even then, it is not the end-all-be-all for judging their ability. The surrounding cast needs to be judged as well when looking at a player.

Don't you think that alot of this is 'fantasy' fueled?

[wist43]

Given all of the Packers offensive problems last year - and likely again this year - it's amazing that anyone can conclude anything other than that DD is superman.

YPA, of 7.6??? Patterns had to be necessarily short a disproportionate amount of the time b/c the OL couldn't block anybody... that's not DD's fault.

Beyond the pathetic OL, there's the design of the offense itself... 2 yd passes are more common in this offense than are 15 yd passes. That's not DD's fault.

And of course, the fact that there isn't anyone else on the team that defenses respect, hence mandating that all 11 defenders are draped all over DD on just about every play. That isn't DD's fault either.

Numbers simply don't give an accurate picture in DD's case.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Sports in general is getting to this stats and metrics based evaluation. You see it in the NBA in the Eff% rating. Baseball has become a stat geeks wet dream with OBP, OPS, situational hitting and pitching, lefty vs righty, expected wins per runs scored, etc.

Football is a very difficult game to do this with on an individual basis. Football is such a different game than either the NBA or MLB as it is far more team oriented and the results are highly influenced on the rest of players on the field. Baseball and basketball are ultimately 1 on 1 contests, thus they lend themselves to this metrics. Not so with football.

Football has much more of a human evaluation component to it than other sports, IMO. The sheer number of players makes it impossible to simply go off of numbers for individuals. Granted there is the QB rating calculator, but even then, it is not the end-all-be-all for judging their ability. The surrounding cast needs to be judged as well when looking at a player.

Don't you think that alot of this is 'fantasy' fueled?
Absolutely. Baseball is the king of that sport, especially because they have come up with every stat under the sun to grade players.

Football is simple for the most part. Yards and TDs. That's about 85% of the fantasy scoring. Either guys produce or they don't. Doesn't matter how many tries they get.

[packinpatland]

he admited about half the teams buy his book.

This is the line that bothers me, 'admited'?....... Like he did something wrong. :roll: Well................ :wink:

[Partial]

And of course, the fact that there isn't anyone else on the team that defenses respect, hence mandating that all 11 defenders are draped all over DD on just about every play. That isn't DD's fault either.



:lol: :lol: :lol:

That is just a really funny passage. We need a PR quotes HOF

[Rastak]

he admited about half the teams buy his book.

This is the line that bothers me, 'admited'?....... Like he did something wrong. :roll: Well................ :wink:


Those are my words....maybe the wrong way to say it. If you ever read one of his chat transcripts he is pretty low key and doesn't seem too boastful. I guess that's what I meant by "admited". I'd probably let people know if teams were buying my book each year if it were me.


I just think the guys work is pretty interesting and hasn't really been done to this level before where the general public has access.

[packinpatland]

he admited about half the teams buy his book.

This is the line that bothers me, 'admited'?....... Like he did something wrong. :roll: Well................ :wink:


Those are my words....maybe the wrong way to say it. If you ever read one of his chat transcripts he is pretty low key and doesn't seem too boastful. I guess that's what I meant by "admited". I'd probably let people know if teams were buying my book each year if it were me.


I just think the guys work is pretty interesting and hasn't really been done to this level before where the general public has access.


Okaaaaay..........coming from you, he has a grain of truth. :wink:

[woodbuck27]

Donald Driver.

He's certainly not overrated by Packer fans. :)