Fritz
05-01-2006, 05:22 PM
I know that many of you doubt TT, and some of you (named Tank) hate what he does. However, I would like to propose an explanation as to why TT trades down so often, and why that is a sound philosophy of player acquisition.
First, it makes sense from a level-of-talent standpoint. Yes, he trades down, and theoretically the quality of players from which to choose is lower, but in practice the difference between players from rounds two through four and five through seven is less than most people believe. That is, players drafted in round two are only slightly more likely to be successful as players drafted in round four. Same for five through seven. The differences are slight.
Plus it's a numbers game. Twelve picks from the same pool of players as someone who got only six players means the team with twelve picks has a better mathematical chance to hit on the maximum number of players.
Thompson exploits this because he does not make the biggest mistake a GM can make: falling in love with one player. That guy the GM has just got to have. That's an ego mistake. The GM believes so strongly in his ability that he KNOWS the guy will be a star, so he sacrifices a later pick. This is a crucial mistake. It does not work often enough (Javon Walker) to warrant the sacrifice of picks (BJ Sander, Kenny Peterson, Donnell Washington plus the picks that Sherman gave up to get those stiffs).
TT, on the other hand, has said repeatedly that he groups players - he sees a group of six or eight or ten guys that he and his staff think have an equal chance in the NFL, and if Ted then gets a call to trade down, and he'll still have a chance at one of the guys in that same quality-group, he pulls the trigger. He still gets a player he feels is of equal value, plus a pick. Then he repeats. But if he sees a drop in quality, he refuses and makes his pick (like Hawk).
He's the right man to build this team.
First, it makes sense from a level-of-talent standpoint. Yes, he trades down, and theoretically the quality of players from which to choose is lower, but in practice the difference between players from rounds two through four and five through seven is less than most people believe. That is, players drafted in round two are only slightly more likely to be successful as players drafted in round four. Same for five through seven. The differences are slight.
Plus it's a numbers game. Twelve picks from the same pool of players as someone who got only six players means the team with twelve picks has a better mathematical chance to hit on the maximum number of players.
Thompson exploits this because he does not make the biggest mistake a GM can make: falling in love with one player. That guy the GM has just got to have. That's an ego mistake. The GM believes so strongly in his ability that he KNOWS the guy will be a star, so he sacrifices a later pick. This is a crucial mistake. It does not work often enough (Javon Walker) to warrant the sacrifice of picks (BJ Sander, Kenny Peterson, Donnell Washington plus the picks that Sherman gave up to get those stiffs).
TT, on the other hand, has said repeatedly that he groups players - he sees a group of six or eight or ten guys that he and his staff think have an equal chance in the NFL, and if Ted then gets a call to trade down, and he'll still have a chance at one of the guys in that same quality-group, he pulls the trigger. He still gets a player he feels is of equal value, plus a pick. Then he repeats. But if he sees a drop in quality, he refuses and makes his pick (like Hawk).
He's the right man to build this team.