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vince
08-30-2007, 04:00 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/bucky_brooks/08/30/bestandworst/index.html

Taking the good with the bad
Predicting the best and worst of the season to come

As the preseason draws to a close and the pursuit begins in earnest for a trip to Super Bowl XLII, here's my assessment of some of the best and worst that the league has to offer. I've touched on everything from the best and worst division, running back combo, offense, linebacking corps, and even the teams most likely to suprise and disappoint.

Best division
The AFC North should be the most competitive division in the league this season. Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have enough talent to make deep playoff runs this season. Cleveland will not contend for a playoff berth, but with an improved offensive line and running game, it has enough firepower to make games competitive. These four teams will spend all season beating each other up, but the survivor will be battle-tested and playoff-ready.

Worst division
The New Orleans Saints have emerged as the class of the NFC South and may face little resistance on their way to a second consecutive division crown. The Carolina Panthers are the most likely challengers, but their spotty play during the preseason makes it hard to jump on their bandwagon. The Falcons have spent the offseason dealing with the fallout from the Mike Vick scandal and the Bucs are struggling to create an identity. It is hard to imagine either team making a serious push for the division title.

Team most likely to surprise
The Oakland Raiders are poised to make a dramatic turnaround under new head coach Lane Kiffin. Their defense was strong last season, but was undermined by a woeful offense that failed to score enough points. Moreover, turnovers by the offense consistently forced the defense to play on a short field.

But Kiffin appears to recognize that his D is capable of winning games single-handedly, so he's running a low risk offense that should keep the Raiders in games. If the defense plays at the same level as last season, the Raiders will win as many as eight or nine games this season.

Team most likely to disappoint
Despite returning 20 of 22 starters from a team that finished with a league best 14-2 record, the San Diego Chargers are the most likely team to fail to live up to expectations. I'm sure this will not go over well with Charger fans, but let me explain my rationale.

The Chargers are adjusting to a new coaching staff while facing a daunting early-season schedule. After opening with league heavyweights (the Bears and Patriots), the Chargers have three consecutive division games before a bye in Week 7. They could enter the break with a sub-.500 record and spend the rest of the season trying to dig out of that hole. I still expect them to make a strong playoff run, but I do not think that they can match last season's phenomenal regular-season run.

Best offense
Sean Payton has quickly assembled the league's most explosive offense down in New Orleans. The league's number one offense from a season ago improved by adding veterans Eric Johnson and David Patten to a talented core that features Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston. The Saints now have the versatility to play "smash mouth" power football or a wide open passing attack, which means Payton can stay in attack mode regardless of the schemes that defenses throw at New Orleans. The Saints flashed signs of being a quick strike offense last year, but expect to see them produce even more big plays this year.

Worst offense
The Kansas City Chiefs are the most one-dimensional offense in the league. They have two of the most talented players in the league in Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez, but their offense lacks creativity and big play potential. They are a "smash mouth" unit that relies on the relentless power running of Johnson to free up Gonzalez off play action passes.

Veteran quarterback Damon Huard had success directing this conservative offense during his eight-game run as starter last season, but the offensive line is no longer the dominant unit that once blew defenses off the ball. Obviously reeling from the Will Shields' retirement and Damion McIntosh's injury, the offense has struggled moving the ball during the preseason behind the patchwork offensive line. The talented trio of Johnson, Gonzalez and Huard can keep the Chiefs afloat for a little while, but the Chiefs will not improve on offense until their offensive line and supporting cast steps up.

Best defense
Rex Ryan's Baltimore Ravens are the league's best defensive unit. Led by perennial Pro Bowlers Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Chris McAllister, the Ravens have the most complete defensive unit in the league. Throw in up-and-coming stars Haloti Ngata and Dawan Landry; the Ravens overwhelm offenses with their talent. Even with the loss of Adalius Thomas, this unit will continue to wreck offenses with its aggressive blitz packages. There are other defenses that can dominate games occasionally, but none can match the Ravens' dominance on a weekly basis.

Worst defense
Despite Rod Marinelli's best efforts, the Detroit Lions' defense is the league's worst. The Lions lack the personnel to successfully run the "Tampa Two" scheme that Marinelli favors and will continue to struggle until that problem is fixed. Shaun Rogers, Cory Redding and Ernie Sims are solid building blocks up front, but there are still huge holes at cornerback and linebacker. Without additional playmakers in the backend, the Lions will not hold up versus good offenses. The Lions will be an improved team in 2007, but their explosive offense will have to carry a sagging defense.

Best running back combo
This proved to be more difficult than imagined after studying the top combinations throughout the league. I settled on New Orleans' combination of McAllister and Bush over the Chargers' pairing of LaDainian Tomlinson-Michael Turner, the Cowboys' tandem of Julius Jones-Marion Barber III and the Jaguars' dynamic duo of Fred Taylor-Maurice Jones-Drew.

McAllister's power running skills, combined with the dynamic versatility of Bush, gives the Saints a productive and powerful 1-2 punch that drives defensive coordinators crazy. While those other tandems pose interesting challenges as well, Bush's receiving skills help set the Saints' duo apart. With 88 receptions as a rookie and countless highlight plays, Bush's flash is the perfect complement to McAllister no non-sense running style.

Worst running back combo
Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency and Noah Herron are slated to handle the running back duties for the Packers, but the trio enters the season with only two career starts between them. With so much inexperience at the position, it is hard to imagine this bunch capably filling Ahman Green's role as the starter. Jackson and Herron have only averaged slightly over three yards a carry during the preseason while Morency has missed the majority of training camp due to an injury. With the season a little over a week away, the inexperience at the running back position should be a major concern in Green Bay.

Best receiving corps (tight ends included)
Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark give the Indianapolis Colts the league's top receiving corps. Harrison and Wayne give Peyton Manning two receivers with the ability to dominate the game. Both have gone over 1,000 yards in each of the past three seasons and Clark is enough of a threat over the middle to keep defenses out of Cover Two. There are a few receiving corps (Cardinals, Patriots and Bengals) that have the talent to challenge the Colts as the top unit, but consistency of the Colts' crew sets them apart as the best.

Worst receiving corps (tight ends included)
It is not a surprise to see the Tennessee Titans top this list. After watching Bobby Wade and Drew Bennett leave during free agency, the Titans are depending on their youngsters to step up as big time players. Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby and Justin Gage do not strike fear in many defensive coordinators. And late offseason pickup Eric Moulds is on the downside of his career and does not have much left in the tank. With so few options in the passing game, it will be miraculous to see Vince Young improve his passing numbers.

Best offensive line
While Tomlinson is one of the most talented runners to ever play the game, his offensive line deserves credit for doing an outstanding job of creating huge running lanes for him. Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Mike Goff and Shane Olivea may not be the best collection of individual talent at their respective positions, but collectively they play as one and few can dispute their effectiveness. There are several offensive lines (Colts, Bengals, Saints and Eagles) that play well, but the Chargers are the most effective as a unit.

Worst offensive line
The Miami Dolphins enter the season with the prospect of lining up with three first-time starters on opening day. Rookies Samson Satele, Drew Mormino and second year offensive tackle Anthony Alabi have struggled adjusting to the speed of the pro game, and the offense has struggled because of that. Cam Cameron has tried to mask their deficiencies by using a lot of three- and five-step drops, but defensive pressure has resulted in a several sacks and a number of tipped passes.

Trent Green's passing woes in the preseason are partially due to rust, but the lack of consistent protection in the pocket has prevented him from getting into a rhythm. But Green is not the only one struggling behind the makeshift line. Ronnie Brown has failed to find running room. Barring a quick improvement, the Dolphins offense will struggle moving the ball during the regular season.

Best defensive line
The Patriots combination of Vince Wolfork, Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green and Ty Warren anchor the top defensive front in the game. They have the ability to dominate the game from a 4-3 or 3-4 look and their versatility allows the Patriots linebackers to roam freely. Seymour has earned five Pro Bowl nods by dominating inside, but do not underestimate the impact of his counterparts up front. The reason the Patriots have been able to field a dominant defense the past few seasons begins and ends with their dominant defensive line.

Worst defensive line
Despite Romeo Crennel's impressive resume as a defensive coordinator, the Browns have the league's worst defensive line. No disrespect to Ted Washington, but having a 17-year veteran anchoring your interior line speaks volumes about the lack of depth on your roster. Shaun Smith and Robaire Smith flank Washington in the Browns' 3-4, but neither has established himself as a top pass rusher or run stopper. The Browns scheme around their defensive line woes, but their defense could ascend to a higher level behind better defensive-line play.

Best linebacker corps
Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Hunter Hillenmeyer get the nod as the league's top unit at linebacker. The Bears' trio makes their Tampa Two defense one of the most feared schemes in football. Urlacher gives their defense a dynamic speedster in the middle while Briggs is a ideal playmaker at the WILL linebacker spot. Both earned Pro Bowl nominations for their play, but do not underestimate the presence of Hillenmeyer at the SAM position. He is not an every-down player, but he is the glue that keeps this unit together. I know that supporters of the Ravens and Patriots will make their case for their linebackers, but the Bears penchant for turnovers and big plays gives them a slight edge in my book.

Worst linebacker corps
After watching the Cardinals struggle making the transition to the 3-4, I had to rate their linebackers as the worst unit in the league. It is not because the group lacks talent, but the new scheme does not fit their current personnel.

To fill roles in the new defense, several players have had to move into unfamiliar positions. Long-time starters Gerald Hayes and Karlos Dansby continue to fill inside linebacker spots, but Bertrand Berry and Chike Okaefor were forced to switch from their normal defensive end spots to upright outside linebacker positions. Both have struggled making the switch from being "hand in the ground" players to becoming upright linebackers and it has shown in their play.

With Okaefor suffering a season-ending injury in the second preseason game, the Cardinals have placed another former defensive end, Calvin Pace, into the lineup. With so many players playing out of position, it is not a surprise that their linebackers have struggled.

Best secondary
The Ravens' secondary specializes in making plays and creating turnovers. Anchored by Pro Bowlers Chris McAllister and Ed Reed, the Ravens have a knack for getting their hands on the ball. Safety Dawan Landry provides the steady presence in the middle and allows Reed to aggressively jump routes all over the field. And even though Samari Rolfe suffered an off-year in 2006, the former Pro Bowler still has enough skills to be a quality starter.

With such a star-studded lineup in the back end, it is not surprising that the Ravens led the league in interceptions (28) last season. Expect to see them match that total in 2008 as defensive coordinator Rex Ryan attacks offenses with a ton of blitzes off the edge.

Worst secondary
The failings of the Giants' secondary led to the dismissal of highly regarded defensive coordinator Tim Lewis at the end of last season. Forced to play more Cover Two to mask the coverage deficiencies of corners Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters and Corey Webster, the Giants were unable to make enough plays to get off the field in crucial situations.

This disturbing trend will continue this year in new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive, blitz heavy scheme. Madison and McQuarters lack the burst to run with top receivers and first-round pick Aaron Ross has struggled making the transition to the pro game. Safeties James Butler and Gibril Wilson are adequate, but neither is a big playmaker versus the pass. Unless the Giants' high pressure scheme generates a lot of sacks, their secondary will be exposed as one of the league's worst.

Best bookend pass rushers
Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips give the Chargers the best set of bookend rushers in the league. Two-time Pro Bowler Merriman has made his mark as one of the game's top pass rushers by racking up 27 sacks in his first two seasons. But his unsung counterpart has quietly developed into a dominant rusher on the opposite side. Phillips relentless motor and quickness allows him to consistently win one-on-one battles off the edge, and his 11.5 sacks last season signified his arrival as a big playmaker.

Most surprising offensive rookie
The Green Bay Packers selected James Jones in the third round and were widely roundly criticized in league circles. But the former San Jose State star has been sensational during the preseason. Showing outstanding hands and running skills, Jones has 16 receptions for 196 yards with two touchdowns through three preseason games. His performance has quickly earned him the trust of Brett Favre and he is poised to make a big impact as a rookie. Packer fans should be reminded of Antonio Freeman when they watch Jones play during the fall.

Most surprising defensive rookie
Paul Posluszny has made an immediate impact on the Buffalo Bills' defense. The second-round pick has been the team's leading tackler and has been an impact player in the middle. He fell out of the first round due to disappointing workouts, but his play during preseason has been stellar. Teams will regret passing on this solid "football player" in favor of better athletes.

Rookie most likely to have the "Devin Hester" effect
Another third-round pick who has made an instant impact during the preseason is Jacoby Jones of the Houston Texans. The small college star from Lane College has dazzled as a receiver/returner during the first three preseason games. He has returned punts for scores in consecutive games and added another receiving touchdown. The Texans have started to use him on reverses and other gadget plays in an effort to get him the ball. It remains to be seen if Jones can become the starter opposite Andre Johnson, but his preseason performance has made it obvious that he is a playmaker who will make an impact during his first year.

gbpackfan
08-30-2007, 04:24 PM
No surprise there when it comes to his comments about our running backs. In my estimation, we have the WORST starting RB in the league. Pathetic!

oregonpackfan
08-30-2007, 04:34 PM
Having a poor running game will put more pressure on Favre to "Make things happen" with the passing game. That, in turn, leads to more interceptions for Favre.

HarveyWallbangers
08-30-2007, 05:01 PM
Conversely, having a great defense would put less pressure on Favre to "make things happen."

Bretsky
08-30-2007, 05:46 PM
Conversely, having a great defense would put less pressure on Favre to "make things happen."


It seems that some are implying Favre should have a Trent Dilfer like role this year. I don't see our defense being quite that dominant, and I don't know if Favre has that type of mentality in his system.

HarveyWallbangers
08-30-2007, 06:28 PM
Don't you think a better defense than what he's used to (perhaps a very good defense) would put less pressure on Favre? I don't see Favre having to carry this team--if the defense ends up being as good as some people think it will. Sure, if the defense sucks, then Favre will have to make things happen. But it seems like people are angling to give Favre an excuse (because of a lack of a proven RB--even though the WRs could be better). If this defense is good, then he shouldn't have to force things.

BallHawk
08-30-2007, 06:44 PM
Don't you think a better defense than what he's used to (perhaps a very good defense) would put less pressure on Favre? I don't see Favre having to carry this team--if the defense ends up being as good as some people think it will. Sure, if the defense sucks, then Favre will have to make things happen. But it seems like people are angling to give Favre an excuse (because of a lack of a proven RB--even though the WRs could be better). If this defense is good, then he shouldn't have to force things.

Exactly. As long as we don't end up in shootouts where Favre is forced to throw up ducks into triple coverage we should be able to mange.