HarveyWallbangers
09-08-2007, 09:11 PM
Crusty Bob is on board apparently.
Rebuilt Packers are much better than advertised
By Bob McGinn
Green Bay - In April, May, June and July, fans of the Green Bay Packers fixated on the team's failed bid to acquire Randy Moss.
In August, they became preoccupied with the void at running back and the disappointing showing of top pick Justin Harrell in training camp.
All the while, the gloom-and-doom crowd either took for granted or just plain missed the rebuilding of the football team, piece by piece, in the National Football League's smallest city.
Twelve games into last season, the Packers found themselves six games in arrears of the Chicago Bears, who already had clinched the NFC North Division championship. Then the Packers won their last four games to finish 8-8, still a lopsided five games behind the Bears.
Today, Green Bay commences the regular season regarded by many prognosticators as a team to watch because of its defense but offering little or no threat to Chicago.
Sports Illustrated pegged the Packers to finish 6-10, tied for second with Minnesota behind the 11-5 Bears.
After polling a beat writer covering each of the 32 teams and 10 of its own people, Pro Football Weekly tabbed Green Bay as third in the division behind Chicago and Detroit. The Bears were No. 4 and the Packers were No. 19 in the PFW power poll.
It doesn't surprise me.
The Packers were awful in 2005 (4-12, seven games behind the Bears), they weren't much better for the bulk of '06 and their deficiencies entering this season have dominated coverage of the team. Whether it's the national media or Joe Fan, the Packers of '07 are Brett Favre and his pursuit of all-time records surrounded by an almost-anonymous coach, an almost-anonymous general manager and 52 mostly anonymous players.
Unless you follow the team closely, you wouldn't even recognize the names of the majority of the starters. Unless you've seen the Packers on an almost daily basis, you wouldn't know just how many of these anonymous players made significant jumps this summer.
The truth of the matter is the Packers are much better than just about anyone realizes. And the guess here is that the Packers will go on to one of their more satisfying seasons and win the NFC North at 10-6, one game better than the Bears.
Putting it in terms of percentages, the Packers would have about a 50% chance of winning the division, the Bears would have 45%, the Vikings would have 5% and the Lions would have none.
Some observers in Detroit think that team has turned the corner with Calvin Johnson, Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz. Well, the Lions might have to score 600 points because their inept defense is liable to give up 500, even in the offense-starved NFC North.
The Vikings, on the other hand, should play very good defense once again despite losing coordinator Mike Tomlin to Pittsburgh. But they have no wide receivers, no right tackle, no quarterback and a coach that's in over his head.
As for the Bears, it might seem foolhardy to think that their five-game margin over the Packers could be overcome just like that. No one's saying it's going to be easy, but recent history in the topsy-turvy NFL reminds us that the standings in one season have no bearing on the next.
In the decade from 1996 to '05, seven teams won their division by at least five games. Juggernauts? Not quite. Here's what happened to those teams:
1997: San Francisco (13-3) wins the NFC West by six games over Carolina. In '98, the 49ers finish second at 12-4, two games behind Atlanta. The 49ers lose to the Falcons in the divisional playoffs.
1998: Denver (14-2) wins the AFC West by six games over Oakland. In '99, the Broncos finish last at 6-10, three games behind Seattle. John Elway retired, and Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe and John Mobley got hurt.
1999: St. Louis (13-3) wins the NFC West by five games over Carolina. In 2000, the Rams finish second behind New Orleans at 10-6. Their defense collapsed.
2002: Green Bay (12-4) wins the NFC North by six games over Minnesota. In '03, the Packers finish 10-6, first by a game when the Vikings lose to Arizona on a last-second touchdown pass.
2004: Philadelphia (13-3) wins the NFC East by seven games over the New York Giants. In '05, the Eagles finish last at 6-10, five games behind the Giants. Injuries decimate their best players; Terrell Owens blows up.
2004: Pittsburgh (15-1) wins the AFC North by six games over Baltimore. In '05, the Steelers finish second behind Cincinnati at 11-5, then go on to win the Super Bowl.
2005: Seattle (13-3) wins the NFC West by seven games over St. Louis. In '06, the Seahawks finish first at 9-7. Injuries play a major role in their decline.
Cakewalks to division titles one year often lead to complacency, lower draft picks, free-agent raids and tougher schedules the next. Opponents spend months figuring out how to catch up.
Then there's the inevitable hangover for the loser of the Super Bowl, a game which the Bears had control of early before falling apart and bowing to the Colts, 29-17.
Of the last eight teams to lose in the Super Bowl, only two (Tennessee in 2000, Seattle in '06) had winning seasons and made the playoffs the next year. The six others went 5-11, 7-9, 7-9, 4-12, 7-9 and 6-10.
In some businesses, success one year almost guarantees success the next year. In the NFL, it guarantees nothing.
During general manager Jerry Angelo's six years in Chicago, the Bears have built their winning formula around good defense, good special teams and conservative offense. Now the Packers have decided to beat the Bears at their own game by adopting the same philosophy.
To make it work, a team needs great players on defense playing a sound scheme, the ability to control the ball with both run and pass, and dynamic special teams.
Angelo traded Thomas Jones, his best running back, to the New York Jets. His counterpart in Green Bay, Ted Thompson, drew a financial line in the sand with Ahman Green and lost him to Houston.
Mercurial Cedric Benson is all that the Bears have now. On paper, he's a better back than the Packers' motley collection of a third-year junior (Brandon Jackson), a part-time player (Vernand Morency) and an underachieving seventh-round draft choice (DeShawn Wynn). Whether he is or not remains to be seen.
Angelo made three other trades involving players within a 10-day span this summer, gearing up for what might be the Bears' last run. He has 13 players age 30 and over (the Packers have seven), including four starters on the offensive line. More than likely, linebacker Lance Briggs is in his final season in Chicago.
The Bears no longer have defensive tackle Tank Johnson, and Tommie Harris probably won't be the same dominating force in his first season back from a serious leg injury.
They have increased the weapons available to strong-armed, competitive Rex Grossman, but he's still a very poor athlete with slow feet and too much panic in his play.
On the other hand, the Packers return everyone of consequence except Green from what was the youngest team in the NFL.
The defense could very well be sensational. Thompson should have given up on weak link Marquand Manuel before he did, but Atari Bigby still has had three weeks with the starters. As long as Bigby doesn't become overly aggressive against play-action, his punishing presence will be felt.
A year ago, the Packers were impregnable against the run after coach Mike McCarthy got around to getting Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off the field. His replacement, Cullen Jenkins, had a great camp. For five years opponents had a safe haven to get 4 yards just by running at "KGB." The difference now is immense.
Harrell has a long, long way to go, but at this point it's moot because Johnny Jolly emerged as a real player, Ryan Pickett is solid as a rock and both Corey Williams and Colin Cole would have larger roles in many other places. It might be similar to when Jamal Reynolds went bust but "KGB" came along to excel at the same job.
The breakthrough players on defense also have included Jarrett Bush, a far more talented nickel back than Patrick Dendy, and Will Blackmon, who gives Green Bay a legitimate threat on returns.
Thompson must take the early heat on Harrell, but James Jones might turn out to be as inspired a selection as there was in the draft. Rookies Allen Barbre, Korey Hall and Mason Crosby look like players, too, and Jackson might once he settles in.
Maybe it won't mean anything this season but the most significant development of camp was the improved play of Aaron Rodgers. For the first time, it can be said that Rodgers looks like he has a chance to be a solid starter in the post-Favre era.
Unless the defense is torn apart by injury, something the Packers were amazingly immune from a year ago, Favre shouldn't have to outscore many teams. McCarthy will have to pass to set up the run behind a so-so offensive line, and maybe Favre's presence alone will occupy defenses and make it all work to some degree.
In the end, the Packers will try to pass to get the lead. Then they will run the ball, play defense and let Jon Ryan punt to maintain it. It might make for less exciting games than fans in Green Bay have been accustomed to for 15 years but, in the end, the result would be well worth it.
It will be critical that Favre buys into the fact that this season isn't about him no matter what the TV types want to say. It's about winning the old-fashioned way, like the Bears.
Beat writers stand at practice day after day watching the team that they cover but never see any other team. Many writers end up overrating what they see, forgetting that the same energy is being expended in 31 other places and optimism abounds everywhere.
There's ever-present danger lurking in predictions stemming from just this kind of one-way process.
But ever since Thompson re-signed Jenkins, kept Al Harris happy and didn't acquire Moss, most of his moves in '07 have seemed like the right ones. The weakness at running back should preclude a run deep into the playoffs, but in a division as poor as the NFC North the Packers should be good enough to overtake the Bears.
Rebuilt Packers are much better than advertised
By Bob McGinn
Green Bay - In April, May, June and July, fans of the Green Bay Packers fixated on the team's failed bid to acquire Randy Moss.
In August, they became preoccupied with the void at running back and the disappointing showing of top pick Justin Harrell in training camp.
All the while, the gloom-and-doom crowd either took for granted or just plain missed the rebuilding of the football team, piece by piece, in the National Football League's smallest city.
Twelve games into last season, the Packers found themselves six games in arrears of the Chicago Bears, who already had clinched the NFC North Division championship. Then the Packers won their last four games to finish 8-8, still a lopsided five games behind the Bears.
Today, Green Bay commences the regular season regarded by many prognosticators as a team to watch because of its defense but offering little or no threat to Chicago.
Sports Illustrated pegged the Packers to finish 6-10, tied for second with Minnesota behind the 11-5 Bears.
After polling a beat writer covering each of the 32 teams and 10 of its own people, Pro Football Weekly tabbed Green Bay as third in the division behind Chicago and Detroit. The Bears were No. 4 and the Packers were No. 19 in the PFW power poll.
It doesn't surprise me.
The Packers were awful in 2005 (4-12, seven games behind the Bears), they weren't much better for the bulk of '06 and their deficiencies entering this season have dominated coverage of the team. Whether it's the national media or Joe Fan, the Packers of '07 are Brett Favre and his pursuit of all-time records surrounded by an almost-anonymous coach, an almost-anonymous general manager and 52 mostly anonymous players.
Unless you follow the team closely, you wouldn't even recognize the names of the majority of the starters. Unless you've seen the Packers on an almost daily basis, you wouldn't know just how many of these anonymous players made significant jumps this summer.
The truth of the matter is the Packers are much better than just about anyone realizes. And the guess here is that the Packers will go on to one of their more satisfying seasons and win the NFC North at 10-6, one game better than the Bears.
Putting it in terms of percentages, the Packers would have about a 50% chance of winning the division, the Bears would have 45%, the Vikings would have 5% and the Lions would have none.
Some observers in Detroit think that team has turned the corner with Calvin Johnson, Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz. Well, the Lions might have to score 600 points because their inept defense is liable to give up 500, even in the offense-starved NFC North.
The Vikings, on the other hand, should play very good defense once again despite losing coordinator Mike Tomlin to Pittsburgh. But they have no wide receivers, no right tackle, no quarterback and a coach that's in over his head.
As for the Bears, it might seem foolhardy to think that their five-game margin over the Packers could be overcome just like that. No one's saying it's going to be easy, but recent history in the topsy-turvy NFL reminds us that the standings in one season have no bearing on the next.
In the decade from 1996 to '05, seven teams won their division by at least five games. Juggernauts? Not quite. Here's what happened to those teams:
1997: San Francisco (13-3) wins the NFC West by six games over Carolina. In '98, the 49ers finish second at 12-4, two games behind Atlanta. The 49ers lose to the Falcons in the divisional playoffs.
1998: Denver (14-2) wins the AFC West by six games over Oakland. In '99, the Broncos finish last at 6-10, three games behind Seattle. John Elway retired, and Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe and John Mobley got hurt.
1999: St. Louis (13-3) wins the NFC West by five games over Carolina. In 2000, the Rams finish second behind New Orleans at 10-6. Their defense collapsed.
2002: Green Bay (12-4) wins the NFC North by six games over Minnesota. In '03, the Packers finish 10-6, first by a game when the Vikings lose to Arizona on a last-second touchdown pass.
2004: Philadelphia (13-3) wins the NFC East by seven games over the New York Giants. In '05, the Eagles finish last at 6-10, five games behind the Giants. Injuries decimate their best players; Terrell Owens blows up.
2004: Pittsburgh (15-1) wins the AFC North by six games over Baltimore. In '05, the Steelers finish second behind Cincinnati at 11-5, then go on to win the Super Bowl.
2005: Seattle (13-3) wins the NFC West by seven games over St. Louis. In '06, the Seahawks finish first at 9-7. Injuries play a major role in their decline.
Cakewalks to division titles one year often lead to complacency, lower draft picks, free-agent raids and tougher schedules the next. Opponents spend months figuring out how to catch up.
Then there's the inevitable hangover for the loser of the Super Bowl, a game which the Bears had control of early before falling apart and bowing to the Colts, 29-17.
Of the last eight teams to lose in the Super Bowl, only two (Tennessee in 2000, Seattle in '06) had winning seasons and made the playoffs the next year. The six others went 5-11, 7-9, 7-9, 4-12, 7-9 and 6-10.
In some businesses, success one year almost guarantees success the next year. In the NFL, it guarantees nothing.
During general manager Jerry Angelo's six years in Chicago, the Bears have built their winning formula around good defense, good special teams and conservative offense. Now the Packers have decided to beat the Bears at their own game by adopting the same philosophy.
To make it work, a team needs great players on defense playing a sound scheme, the ability to control the ball with both run and pass, and dynamic special teams.
Angelo traded Thomas Jones, his best running back, to the New York Jets. His counterpart in Green Bay, Ted Thompson, drew a financial line in the sand with Ahman Green and lost him to Houston.
Mercurial Cedric Benson is all that the Bears have now. On paper, he's a better back than the Packers' motley collection of a third-year junior (Brandon Jackson), a part-time player (Vernand Morency) and an underachieving seventh-round draft choice (DeShawn Wynn). Whether he is or not remains to be seen.
Angelo made three other trades involving players within a 10-day span this summer, gearing up for what might be the Bears' last run. He has 13 players age 30 and over (the Packers have seven), including four starters on the offensive line. More than likely, linebacker Lance Briggs is in his final season in Chicago.
The Bears no longer have defensive tackle Tank Johnson, and Tommie Harris probably won't be the same dominating force in his first season back from a serious leg injury.
They have increased the weapons available to strong-armed, competitive Rex Grossman, but he's still a very poor athlete with slow feet and too much panic in his play.
On the other hand, the Packers return everyone of consequence except Green from what was the youngest team in the NFL.
The defense could very well be sensational. Thompson should have given up on weak link Marquand Manuel before he did, but Atari Bigby still has had three weeks with the starters. As long as Bigby doesn't become overly aggressive against play-action, his punishing presence will be felt.
A year ago, the Packers were impregnable against the run after coach Mike McCarthy got around to getting Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off the field. His replacement, Cullen Jenkins, had a great camp. For five years opponents had a safe haven to get 4 yards just by running at "KGB." The difference now is immense.
Harrell has a long, long way to go, but at this point it's moot because Johnny Jolly emerged as a real player, Ryan Pickett is solid as a rock and both Corey Williams and Colin Cole would have larger roles in many other places. It might be similar to when Jamal Reynolds went bust but "KGB" came along to excel at the same job.
The breakthrough players on defense also have included Jarrett Bush, a far more talented nickel back than Patrick Dendy, and Will Blackmon, who gives Green Bay a legitimate threat on returns.
Thompson must take the early heat on Harrell, but James Jones might turn out to be as inspired a selection as there was in the draft. Rookies Allen Barbre, Korey Hall and Mason Crosby look like players, too, and Jackson might once he settles in.
Maybe it won't mean anything this season but the most significant development of camp was the improved play of Aaron Rodgers. For the first time, it can be said that Rodgers looks like he has a chance to be a solid starter in the post-Favre era.
Unless the defense is torn apart by injury, something the Packers were amazingly immune from a year ago, Favre shouldn't have to outscore many teams. McCarthy will have to pass to set up the run behind a so-so offensive line, and maybe Favre's presence alone will occupy defenses and make it all work to some degree.
In the end, the Packers will try to pass to get the lead. Then they will run the ball, play defense and let Jon Ryan punt to maintain it. It might make for less exciting games than fans in Green Bay have been accustomed to for 15 years but, in the end, the result would be well worth it.
It will be critical that Favre buys into the fact that this season isn't about him no matter what the TV types want to say. It's about winning the old-fashioned way, like the Bears.
Beat writers stand at practice day after day watching the team that they cover but never see any other team. Many writers end up overrating what they see, forgetting that the same energy is being expended in 31 other places and optimism abounds everywhere.
There's ever-present danger lurking in predictions stemming from just this kind of one-way process.
But ever since Thompson re-signed Jenkins, kept Al Harris happy and didn't acquire Moss, most of his moves in '07 have seemed like the right ones. The weakness at running back should preclude a run deep into the playoffs, but in a division as poor as the NFC North the Packers should be good enough to overtake the Bears.