HarveyWallbangers
09-09-2007, 10:03 AM
Scouts like Packers more than 'experts'
By Pete Dougherty
A handful of NFL scouts think at least a little more highly of the 2007 Green Bay Packers' prospects than betting oddsmakers.
A survey this week of several sports-betting books showed that bodog.com was representative of oddsmakers' views of the Packers, and it had the Packers at 6-to-1 odds of winning the NFC North Division. That's behind Chicago, which is the prohibitive favorite at 1-to-4, and Detroit (4-to-1). Minnesota was just behind the Packers at 7-to-1.
Seven NFL scouts this week shared their predictions on the season, including the Packers' ranking in the NFC North. In general, they saw the Packers as an off-the-radar team that will be a mild surprise. Five of the seven picked them to finish second, and gave them anything from a decent to good shot at making the playoffs in the weak NFC. One picked them to finish third behind the Lions, and one picked them to win the division.
"Brett (Favre) will have a pretty solid year, a swan song," one scout said. "Probably .500 again, maybe 9-7. If they got to 10-6, that would be lucky. I'll bet they're close (to the playoffs). They finished strong last year. They should be all right."
An AFC scout picked the Packers to win the division, though by default.
"They're just quietly going about their job," the scout said. "I don't see them being very strong, I see them getting in by their nose. I don't think that division is good at all. Minnesota won't be good. I think Chicago is going to fall."
The other six scouts picked Chicago to win the division, though only one predicted they'd return to the Super Bowl, and to lose there to New England.
The scouts echoed the prevailing sentiment that the balance of power in the NFL still swings strongly to the AFC. Of the seven scouts, only two picked an NFC team — one Seattle, the other New Orleans — to win the Super Bowl. Of the others, two picked beefed-up New England to win the Lombardi Trophy, two picked San Diego and one picked Indianapolis to repeat.
That's close to how the oddsmakers see the upcoming season. Bodog.com has New England as the Super Bowl favorite at 5-to-2, followed by San Diego (13-to-2) and Indianapolis (15-to-2). Chicago and New Orleans were next (8-to-1 each).
"(The Patriots) are the flavor of the month," one scout said. "They're talented. It will be interesting to see how this (Randy) Moss thing shakes out, how he really does for them."
The scouts collectively predicted New Orleans to be better than Chicago in the NFC. Five of the seven picked the Saints to go to the NFC championship game, including three to win it. Three scouts picked Chicago to advance to the conference final, with one predicting the Bears will win it.
Nevertheless, the Packers, Detroit and Minnesota are chasing the Bears in the NFC North. Chicago is shooting for its third straight division title, and has the makings of an elite defense despite cutting defensive tackle Tank Johnson, a former second-round draft pick, for his off-field problems. The Bears replaced him by signing former Eagle Darwin Walker as a backup and promoting Dusty Dvoracek to the starting lineup.
In a key development, linebacker Lance Briggs, desig-nated their franchise player this offseason, ended a nasty contract stalemate and signed his franchise tender before the start of training camp. Just as important, defensive tackle Tommie Harris, a Pro Bowl-caliber player, is back after missing the last four games and the playoffs because of a hamstring injury. They join the anchor of the defense, middle linebacker Brian Urlacher.
Several scouts expressed reservations about Bears quarterback Rex Grossman, but the addition of rookie tight end Greg Olsen and the move of kick returner Devin Hester from cornerback to receiver should help Grossman and provide more offensive punch.
"The key might be Hester as opposed to Olsen," another scout said. "If he can get his hands on the ball, anything can happen. He has great hands. In space, downfield, they just want the ball in his hands. When he's out there, you're probably going to need to know where he's at."
However, the scout who picked the Packers to win the division thinks the Bears might come apart after a contentious offseason.
"Too many money issues in the past year," the scout said. "There was a money issue with the coach. A money issue with Briggs. Whatever it was with (traded running back) Thomas Jones. Whatever it was with (released defensive tackle) Tank Johnson. Too many issues."
The Vikings should have a dominating run defense again with defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, but even with the addition of halfback Adrian Peterson, most of the scouts consider their liability at quarterback — with second-year pro Tarvaris Jackson — too great to contend for the playoffs.
Detroit has been drafting high in the first round for several years, and some pundits have picked the Lions to take a big jump in their second season under coach Ron Marinelli and offensive coordinator Mike Martz, especially after drafting receiver Calvin Johnson in the first round. But only one scout in this poll picked them to finish second in the division, even if the oddsmakers favor them over the Packers. Not only is Detroit favored to finish second in the division by the oddsmakers, but its odds for winning the NFC are 8-to-1, whereas the Packers' are 16-to-1.
"I don't think the Lions (will finish second). They're a lot of talk," one scout said. "(Quarterback Jon) Kitna's pretty good between the 20s, but he's awful in the red zone."
The Packers, meanwhile, remain suspect in most of the scouts' eyes because of their running game, which didn't look any better in the preseason with rookie Brandon Jackson than it did last year, when they finished No. 23 in the NFL in rushing yards and No. 21 in yards per carry.
The Packers, however, caught the attention of NFL scouts with their improved defensive play in their four-game winning streak at the end of last season that carried over when the starters played well in limited time in the preseason this summer.
Cullen Jenkins was on many teams' radar in the offseason after he replaced Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila at defensive end the final four games, and would have been a coveted player had the Packers let him reach the free-agent market last March. Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk looked in the preseason like one of the league's better one-two punches at linebacker.
"Probably should be (a playoff team)," another scout said. "Definitely improved on defense. Outside of that running backs spot, they're probably improved everywhere."
Rookie receiver James Jones drew notice by tying for the league lead in receptions in the preseason with 21.
"I'm looking at them as a 9-7, 10-6 team," another scout said. "I think the running back will be better than people think. They'll be sound at controlling the ball. The quarterback, if he just executes without feeling like he's got to win it and rolls with the offense, he's got a chance to have a good ball-control team. I like the receivers. They'll be sound there. You get (Donald) Driver and (Greg) Jennings, and Jones is a pleasant surprise. That's part of the quarterback just playing instead of being the guy of old, just playing within himself and taking what's there and running the ball. The offensive line was young a year ago, they'll be improved.
"And defensively, they'll execute and they'll be a little more sound in the back end at the safety position. That will be good. The linebackers will make tackles, and the defensive line will be steady."
By Pete Dougherty
A handful of NFL scouts think at least a little more highly of the 2007 Green Bay Packers' prospects than betting oddsmakers.
A survey this week of several sports-betting books showed that bodog.com was representative of oddsmakers' views of the Packers, and it had the Packers at 6-to-1 odds of winning the NFC North Division. That's behind Chicago, which is the prohibitive favorite at 1-to-4, and Detroit (4-to-1). Minnesota was just behind the Packers at 7-to-1.
Seven NFL scouts this week shared their predictions on the season, including the Packers' ranking in the NFC North. In general, they saw the Packers as an off-the-radar team that will be a mild surprise. Five of the seven picked them to finish second, and gave them anything from a decent to good shot at making the playoffs in the weak NFC. One picked them to finish third behind the Lions, and one picked them to win the division.
"Brett (Favre) will have a pretty solid year, a swan song," one scout said. "Probably .500 again, maybe 9-7. If they got to 10-6, that would be lucky. I'll bet they're close (to the playoffs). They finished strong last year. They should be all right."
An AFC scout picked the Packers to win the division, though by default.
"They're just quietly going about their job," the scout said. "I don't see them being very strong, I see them getting in by their nose. I don't think that division is good at all. Minnesota won't be good. I think Chicago is going to fall."
The other six scouts picked Chicago to win the division, though only one predicted they'd return to the Super Bowl, and to lose there to New England.
The scouts echoed the prevailing sentiment that the balance of power in the NFL still swings strongly to the AFC. Of the seven scouts, only two picked an NFC team — one Seattle, the other New Orleans — to win the Super Bowl. Of the others, two picked beefed-up New England to win the Lombardi Trophy, two picked San Diego and one picked Indianapolis to repeat.
That's close to how the oddsmakers see the upcoming season. Bodog.com has New England as the Super Bowl favorite at 5-to-2, followed by San Diego (13-to-2) and Indianapolis (15-to-2). Chicago and New Orleans were next (8-to-1 each).
"(The Patriots) are the flavor of the month," one scout said. "They're talented. It will be interesting to see how this (Randy) Moss thing shakes out, how he really does for them."
The scouts collectively predicted New Orleans to be better than Chicago in the NFC. Five of the seven picked the Saints to go to the NFC championship game, including three to win it. Three scouts picked Chicago to advance to the conference final, with one predicting the Bears will win it.
Nevertheless, the Packers, Detroit and Minnesota are chasing the Bears in the NFC North. Chicago is shooting for its third straight division title, and has the makings of an elite defense despite cutting defensive tackle Tank Johnson, a former second-round draft pick, for his off-field problems. The Bears replaced him by signing former Eagle Darwin Walker as a backup and promoting Dusty Dvoracek to the starting lineup.
In a key development, linebacker Lance Briggs, desig-nated their franchise player this offseason, ended a nasty contract stalemate and signed his franchise tender before the start of training camp. Just as important, defensive tackle Tommie Harris, a Pro Bowl-caliber player, is back after missing the last four games and the playoffs because of a hamstring injury. They join the anchor of the defense, middle linebacker Brian Urlacher.
Several scouts expressed reservations about Bears quarterback Rex Grossman, but the addition of rookie tight end Greg Olsen and the move of kick returner Devin Hester from cornerback to receiver should help Grossman and provide more offensive punch.
"The key might be Hester as opposed to Olsen," another scout said. "If he can get his hands on the ball, anything can happen. He has great hands. In space, downfield, they just want the ball in his hands. When he's out there, you're probably going to need to know where he's at."
However, the scout who picked the Packers to win the division thinks the Bears might come apart after a contentious offseason.
"Too many money issues in the past year," the scout said. "There was a money issue with the coach. A money issue with Briggs. Whatever it was with (traded running back) Thomas Jones. Whatever it was with (released defensive tackle) Tank Johnson. Too many issues."
The Vikings should have a dominating run defense again with defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, but even with the addition of halfback Adrian Peterson, most of the scouts consider their liability at quarterback — with second-year pro Tarvaris Jackson — too great to contend for the playoffs.
Detroit has been drafting high in the first round for several years, and some pundits have picked the Lions to take a big jump in their second season under coach Ron Marinelli and offensive coordinator Mike Martz, especially after drafting receiver Calvin Johnson in the first round. But only one scout in this poll picked them to finish second in the division, even if the oddsmakers favor them over the Packers. Not only is Detroit favored to finish second in the division by the oddsmakers, but its odds for winning the NFC are 8-to-1, whereas the Packers' are 16-to-1.
"I don't think the Lions (will finish second). They're a lot of talk," one scout said. "(Quarterback Jon) Kitna's pretty good between the 20s, but he's awful in the red zone."
The Packers, meanwhile, remain suspect in most of the scouts' eyes because of their running game, which didn't look any better in the preseason with rookie Brandon Jackson than it did last year, when they finished No. 23 in the NFL in rushing yards and No. 21 in yards per carry.
The Packers, however, caught the attention of NFL scouts with their improved defensive play in their four-game winning streak at the end of last season that carried over when the starters played well in limited time in the preseason this summer.
Cullen Jenkins was on many teams' radar in the offseason after he replaced Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila at defensive end the final four games, and would have been a coveted player had the Packers let him reach the free-agent market last March. Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk looked in the preseason like one of the league's better one-two punches at linebacker.
"Probably should be (a playoff team)," another scout said. "Definitely improved on defense. Outside of that running backs spot, they're probably improved everywhere."
Rookie receiver James Jones drew notice by tying for the league lead in receptions in the preseason with 21.
"I'm looking at them as a 9-7, 10-6 team," another scout said. "I think the running back will be better than people think. They'll be sound at controlling the ball. The quarterback, if he just executes without feeling like he's got to win it and rolls with the offense, he's got a chance to have a good ball-control team. I like the receivers. They'll be sound there. You get (Donald) Driver and (Greg) Jennings, and Jones is a pleasant surprise. That's part of the quarterback just playing instead of being the guy of old, just playing within himself and taking what's there and running the ball. The offensive line was young a year ago, they'll be improved.
"And defensively, they'll execute and they'll be a little more sound in the back end at the safety position. That will be good. The linebackers will make tackles, and the defensive line will be steady."