The thing that still bugs me about the draft...

[packers11]

T.T. didn't take the cleveland deal :( ...

They will most likely give Dallas a top 5 pick, imagine having McFadden on the packers...

With so much depth at DT I just don't see why T.T. didn't do it...

Not trying to "beat a dead horse" but after seeing cleveland play, that pick could be very valuable...

[VanPackFan]

This deal (was it ever actually confirmed that it existed?) would have had the Packers trading out of this year's first round entirely?
Migawd, I can just imagine how the 'win now for Farve' crowd would have reacted to that. At least Harrell could and should be a contributor in the back half of this season. But if TT had failed to provide this team with a first round pick at all in what could be Farve's finale, I think a few heads would have exploded around here.

[Lurker64]

T.T. didn't take the cleveland deal :( ...

They will most likely give Dallas a top 5 pick, imagine having McFadden on the packers...

With so much depth at DT I just don't see why T.T. didn't do it...

Not trying to "beat a dead horse" but after seeing cleveland play, that pick could be very valuable...

I think it pays to remember that the deal Cleveland ended up accepting for the Quinn pick was sweeter than the deal that Cleveland offered Thompson. The deal Cleveland offered Thompson was just "Your first this year for our first next year, plus we swap 2nd and 3rds this year". Based on the customary method of calculating points for future draft picks, this was a very lopsided deal in Cleveland's favor so I don't fault Thompson for not taking it. I actually would have been mad at him if he took that deal. In retrospect, since Harrell was inactive on Sunday "going without a first rounder" doesn't seem awful, but not knowing who we'd pick I would have been upset if he lost his first round pick in a trade that he lost by by 100 or more points.

The deal that Cleveland offered Dallas was "Your first this year, for our first next year and our second this year" which is a significantly better trade. My understanding is that Cleveland tried to lowball every team for the pick, but they got progressively more desperate because KC (who was picking 23) came out and said "If Quinn's there, we're picking him", so when pick 22 came around they either had to give the Cowboys what they wanted (and they made out like bandits on the points), or pass on Quinn.

[MasonCrosby]

This deal (was it ever actually confirmed that it existed?) would have had the Packers trading out of this year's first round entirely?
Migawd, I can just imagine how the 'win now for Favre' crowd would have reacted to that. At least Harrell could and should be a contributor in the back half of this season. But if TT had failed to provide this team with a first round pick at all in what could be Favre's finale, I think a few heads would have exploded around here.

that is a very good point. imagine the reaction from the fan base and even favre. do we sacrifice our draft pick today for something next year?

[Brohm]

That's essentially what the trade would have been, zero this year for the Browns pick next year. The swap of 2nd and 3rds is irrelevant as TT wheels and deals those down anyways (and his "list" is a bit different from others as far as who he picks :p, so the player(s) he wanted would have been there anyways).

[cheesner]

A lot of variables in this one. No telling where Cleveland's pick is going to end up.

Ideally, we could have traded down with Dallas, picked up their 3rd, and then traded with the Browns for their 2nd and 1st next year. No doubt, those three picks would offer the Packers more likely impact than Justin. I hope Harrell and the rest of this draft class work out - I doubt if any team will ever have the perfect draft. It is all too easy to 2nd guess the draft later.

[wist43]

We really don't know what the deal could have ended up being b/c TT heard their proposal and basically hung up on them.

It wasn't until later when Phil Savage spoke about his efforts to try to trade up, that any details about what was offered to Green Bay came out.

If the reports are accurate that it was next years #1, and a swap of this years 2's and 3's... that's just an initial offer. I'm convinced that the Browns will be picking top 10 next year, probably top 5. Pry one of those two picks - the 2nd or the 3rd rounder, move up with the other, and you might have the makings of a deal.

We'll never know... but, I agree with the premise of the thread. If I'm a GM I'd always, always, be interested in a future #1 from a bad team.

[Patler]

Why obsess so much over something that DIDN'T happen? There are a lot of reasons why trades fall through, FAs go elsewhere, contract extensions never materialize, etc. We never know all of the reasons behind those "failures".

You also never can fully appreciate what else would have or wouldn't have happened if those failed scenarios had gone differently. For example, having Walker would have been great, but the trade was really a key to all of TT's draft day maneuvers. How differently would that have gone without the trade of Walker? Maybe it would have been better, maybe worse, who can say with any certainty?

Who knows how differently things might have gone if the trade with Cleveland had happened? Maybe Harrell would have still been there in round 2, and TT would have taken him. Maybe not. If so, maybe no Jackson. Then maybe a RB later and no Jones. Maybe Jones, but later? Again, who knows?

Interesting things to discuss, but certainly not worth agonizing over.

[b bulldog]

I was going to say this at years end when the Browns have a top 5 pick

[the_idle_threat]

This deal (was it ever actually confirmed that it existed?) would have had the Packers trading out of this year's first round entirely?
Migawd, I can just imagine how the 'win now for Favre' crowd would have reacted to that. At least Harrell could and should be a contributor in the back half of this season. But if TT had failed to provide this team with a first round pick at all in what could be Favre's finale, I think a few heads would have exploded around here.

Welcome to the forum, and this is an outstanding point.

Only in hindsight---knowing that the 1st round pick was Harrell and he's not ready to go yet---does this trade work for the win-now folks.

[RashanGary]

That missed deal looks worse every day. TT can have a fine career without getting another top 5 pick but damn, that could have given him the type of freebe that most GM's don't have a luxery of recieving.

Imagine Rodgers stepping in with the mature OL, the young WR's entering their prime and McFadden/Jackson as the one two punch at RB as well as a top 5 defense.

As it stands we don't get the freebe. TT said he was not prepared for that type of a trade. I remember thinking at the time that it was one of the few times TT seemed like he was out of his element and prone to a mistake.

Like I said, TT can do just fine without this deal but damn, that could have been the final lucky piece to put this team over the top.

[b bulldog]

This truely was a nobrainer

[Lurker64]

I still think, that if the deal the Browns was offering was such a no brainer, why did five teams other than us pass on it? Couldn't Cincinnatii, Denver, Jacksonville, Tennessee, or the Giants use McFadden?

Thompson wasn't the only GM to pass on the "generous deal" that Cleveland was offering. This strongly leads me to believe that Cleveland was low-balling a lot of people.

[Bretsky]

This deal (was it ever actually confirmed that it existed?) would have had the Packers trading out of this year's first round entirely?
Migawd, I can just imagine how the 'win now for Favre' crowd would have reacted to that. At least Harrell could and should be a contributor in the back half of this season. But if TT had failed to provide this team with a first round pick at all in what could be Favre's finale, I think a few heads would have exploded around here.

Welcome to the forum, and this is an outstanding point.

Only in hindsight---knowing that the 1st round pick was Harrell and he's not ready to go yet---does this trade work for the win-now folks.


I'm a win now guy who was not fond of Harrell from the second his name was announced.

I'd have jumped at this deal in a second; what a no brainer.

It may have brought us a franchise back next year, and boy that would have set us up for the future.

[b bulldog]

Could you imagine next year getting McFadden early and somebody like Ike in the middle of round one.

[Lurker64]

For those of you saying that "you'd jump at this deal in a second", which deal are you jumping at:

1) The deal that Thompson was reportedly offered, that is "Packers 2006 first round pick for Browns 2007 first round pick, and Packers 2007 2nd and 3rd round picks for Browns 2nd and 3rd round picks".

2) The deal the Cowboys managed to get out of Cleveland, that is "2006 first round pick for Browns 2007 first round pick and Browns 2006 2nd round pick."


Keep in mind that the Cowboys had a much stronger bargaining position here than the Packers. If Thompson said "Not enough, give us your second round pick and forget about the swap" the Browns can just say "No thanks, we'll call the Jaguars instead." When the Cowboys were on the clock, they had to either take the deal Dallas wanted, or not get Quinn.

[Bretsky]

Could you imagine next year getting McFadden early and somebody like Ike in the middle of round one.

Scary stuff; so unlike TT to turn down this deal.

[RashanGary]

Good point Lurker. Good point on the other teams passing too. It's a tough call. YOu never knwo what you are getting by giving up your pick. It's just a very uncomfortable thing. I think TT hsould have had a better read on the Browns roster and known that they suck though. If he knew that, he might have been more comfortable taking the deal.

With how bad the Browns look, it looks like a horrible pass now. GM's are paid to have forsight. I honestly think he should have known the Browns suck and should have taken the deal. He seemed unsure and not very confident in his decision. I was not impressed iwth the way TT handled that. Usually I am.

[the_idle_threat]

This deal (was it ever actually confirmed that it existed?) would have had the Packers trading out of this year's first round entirely?
Migawd, I can just imagine how the 'win now for Favre' crowd would have reacted to that. At least Harrell could and should be a contributor in the back half of this season. But if TT had failed to provide this team with a first round pick at all in what could be Favre's finale, I think a few heads would have exploded around here.

Welcome to the forum, and this is an outstanding point.

Only in hindsight---knowing that the 1st round pick was Harrell and he's not ready to go yet---does this trade work for the win-now folks.


I'm a win now guy who was not fond of Harrell from the second his name was announced.

I'd have jumped at this deal in a second; what a no brainer.

It may have brought us a franchise back next year, and boy that would have set us up for the future.

Actually, youre proving my point, B.

You're in favor because you know that the pick turned out to be Harrell, and you don't like the pick. In that case, of course the trade would have been a better deal.

But if TT had traded the pick, we never would have known (or guessed :) )he would have picked Harrell. It could have been anybody who went after the 15th pick. It could have been Maechem, who you were fond of, or Olsen or another sexy weapon for the offense.

Years later, it could have been anybody in the bottom of round one who turned out after the fact to be a Pro-Bowler.

Especially for the win-now folks who wanted instant gratification for the offense, it would have been a head-exploding move. If trading down in the same draft is mocked and maligned by so many, than how could we have tolerated trading down chronologically to next year's draft? Again---assuming we want to win now?

[Joemailman]

I could understand obsessing over this from April to August, but now? It's football season, and we're in first place. Right now I'm glad we beat Philly, and if there's anything I'm worried about, it's the play of our offensive line, not some alleged deal TT didn't make 5 months ago. I guess for some, questioning TT's moves is never out of season. I just think it's best left for the off-season.

[Bretsky]

This deal (was it ever actually confirmed that it existed?) would have had the Packers trading out of this year's first round entirely?
Migawd, I can just imagine how the 'win now for Favre' crowd would have reacted to that. At least Harrell could and should be a contributor in the back half of this season. But if TT had failed to provide this team with a first round pick at all in what could be Favre's finale, I think a few heads would have exploded around here.

Welcome to the forum, and this is an outstanding point.

Only in hindsight---knowing that the 1st round pick was Harrell and he's not ready to go yet---does this trade work for the win-now folks.


I'm a win now guy who was not fond of Harrell from the second his name was announced.

I'd have jumped at this deal in a second; what a no brainer.

It may have brought us a franchise back next year, and boy that would have set us up for the future.

Actually, youre proving my point, B.

You're in favor because you know that the pick turned out to be Harrell, and you don't like the pick. In that case, of course the trade would have been a better deal.

But if TT had traded the pick, we never would have known (or guessed :) )he would have picked Harrell. It could have been anybody who went after the 15th pick. It could have been Maechem, who you were fond of, or Olsen or another sexy weapon for the offense.

Years later, it could have been anybody in the bottom of round one who turned out after the fact to be a Pro-Bowler.

Especially for the win-now folks who wanted instant gratification for the offense, it would have been a head-exploding move. If trading down in the same draft is mocked and maligned by so many, than how could we have tolerated trading down chronologically to next year's draft? Again---assuming we want to win now?

I like that deal, mainly, because the Browns are terrible and I think it delivers a top8, maybe top 5 pick.

Hearing Harrell was just icing on my view

[Bretsky]

I could understand obsessing over this from April to August, but now? It's football season, and we're in first place. Right now I'm glad we beat Philly, and if there's anything I'm worried about, it's the play of our offensive line, not some alleged deal TT didn't make 5 months ago. I guess for some, questioning TT's moves is never out of season. I just think it's best left for the off-season.


This is more fun that talking about how much our offensive line sucked ! :lol:

[Deputy Nutz]

That draft really pissed me off. I thought it would have been a wise choice to have made that trade. I wasn't so mad at the Harrell pick, but the fact was I didn't see an impact player at the 16th pick. I thought a trade for rights to the Cleveland pick for next year would have been a no brainer. But oh fucking well

[Lurker64]

I would honestly like an answer to this, for those critical of Thompson not taking the deal.


For those of you saying that "you'd jump at this deal in a second", which deal are you jumping at:".

1) The deal that Thompson was reportedly offered, that is "Packers 2006 first round pick for Browns 2007 first round pick, and Packers 2007 2nd and 3rd round picks for Browns 2nd and 3rd round picks.

2) The deal the Cowboys managed to get out of Cleveland, that is "2006 first round pick for Browns 2007 first round pick and Browns 2006 2nd round pick."

[Bretsky]

I would honestly like an answer to this, for those critical of Thompson not taking the deal.


For those of you saying that "you'd jump at this deal in a second", which deal are you jumping at:".

1) The deal that Thompson was reportedly offered, that is "Packers 2006 first round pick for Browns 2007 first round pick, and Packers 2007 2nd and 3rd round picks for Browns 2nd and 3rd round picks.

2) The deal the Cowboys managed to get out of Cleveland, that is "2006 first round pick for Browns 2007 first round pick and Browns 2006 2nd round pick."


Both

The players who were suppose to go top 12 were all gone and we were supposedly in the next player tier.

And the Browns suck

But regardless who is to say TT could not have asked them to sweeten the deal a bit to make it work ?

[the_idle_threat]

I get the impression that many here would have traded our 1st in '07 for the Browns' first in '08 straight up.

[RashanGary]

Oh god, Bretsky, come off the :soap:

5 NFL GM's in a row passed on it. It looks bad. I think TT deserves some level of criticism for seeming unprepared but let's not act like it was a no brainer. I know you hate the Harrell pick and have a problem with TT but the reality of this situation is that it was a borderline move that looks worse every day. The GM's between us and Dallas proved it wasn't a no brainer.

[the_idle_threat]

[T]he reality of this situation is that it was a borderline move that looks worse every day.
I think the problem here is that it was a borderline move that is looking better right now in hindsight.

In the first week of the season, Harrell was inactive, and the Browns looked, well, brown.

This is why we're talking about it now. But people have to realize that it's hindsight. It also doesn't hurt to realize that it's a long season, and both Harrell and Cleveland might turn out to be better than they were in week 1.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Green Bay 16, Philadelphia 13

Green Bay at NY Giants this week.

Win this week and we go 2-1 (at worst) in what looked like a brutal opening three game stretch.

Then, we play at Minnesota, at home vs. Chicago, and at home vs. Washington.

[Bretsky]

Oh god, Bretsky, come off the :soap:

5 NFL GM's in a row passed on it. It looks bad. I think TT deserves some level of criticism for seeming unprepared but let's not act like it was a no brainer. I know you hate the Harrell pick and have a problem with TT but the reality of this situation is that it was a borderline move that looks worse every day. The GM's between us and Dallas proved it wasn't a no brainer.


Hey, you used that picture things pretty good :lol:

I need something to talk about

[Lurker64]

The math here bears mentioning.

The deal Thompson was purportedly offered
Packers give up: 16, 47, and 78.
Packers total value: 1,560 points.
Browns give up: 36 and 67 (820 points) and future 1st round pick (600 points)
Browns total value: 1,420 points.

Winner: Browns, by 140 points, approximately worth a 3rd round pick.

The deal the Cowboys got
Cowboys give up: 22
Cowboys total value: 800
Browns give up: 36 and future 1st round pick
Browns total value: 1160

Winner: Cowboys, by 360 points, approximately a 2nd round pick.

The Deal the Cowboys got, if it was offered to the Packers
Packers give up: 16
Packers total value: 1000
Browns give up: 36 and future 1st round pick
Browns total value: 1160

Winner: Packers by 160 points, approximately a 3rd round pick.

So if we took the deal Thompson was offered, the points chart says we're approximately losing by a third round pick, this is not a good trade. On the other hand, Dallas basically won by a second round pick, which is a huge trade, I'd do that in a second. Even if the Packers took the deal the Cowboys got we'd win by a third round pick, and I'd take that too. But I would never ever trade a first round pick in a trade that's a net loss. If Thompson took the trade that Cleveland reportedly offered initially, we would have good reason to criticize this year, and we'd have very good reason to criticize him next year if the player he took with the extra first doesn't make an immediate impact, since you'd certainly expect whoever he took at 16 to be making an impact in his second year.

Assuming the swap 2nd and 3rd round picks story is true, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Cleveland consistently tried to lowball teams from Green Bay up to Dallas, since the reported offer was clearly a lowball offer. Keep in mind that in response to the lowball offer Thompson has absolutely no leverage, since Cleveland has 5 more teams to offer the same lowball offer to. They have no reason to up the ante if Thompson doesn't want the trade they offer, which is (by the numbers) a trade he loses in. Not everybody uses the same points chart, but the ones that are publicly available are, according to several sources, "pretty good approximations of the real ones".

So in response to my own question, I'm unhappy with deal 1), since it's a loss, but I'd take deal 2) in a second. The Cowboys got away with a fleecing. If we were picking 22 instead of 16, we could have gotten away with a similar fleecing since then we'd have leverage, but picking at 16 we have none as far as Cleveland is concerned.

I would be very unhappy if the GM of my team made any trade that (by the points) they lost by as much as a first day pick, particularly if the trade does not net me a player that I am high on. Since TT making the trade that was apparently offered would result in him netting no additional players this year, I would have been very unhappy with him if he had made that deal.

N.B.
The traditional means for scoring a future pick, is that it's valued at the same position that team is picking in the given round this year, but one round lower. So the Browns future first is graded out as the 3rd pick in the 2nd round next year. There are a couple of reasons for this. Firstly, there's the uncertainty in where the team that's giving up the pick will be selecting next year. Teams traditionally trade up, particularly in the early rounds, to get cogs that they feel will make them much much better. Logically, the team giving up the pick this year would assume that they're right, and in order to protect themselves assume that the team getting their pick will be much better, since the team that gave up the pick will be doing everything in their power to devalue that pick over the course of the season. Plus the future pick does not have any clear value to the team picking in that spot, since they don't know what their needs will be in the future, where they will be picking in the future, or who will be available and/or attractive in the future. Secondly, a team holding a pick is under no compunction to trade it away for picks not in this draft. You get one pick in every round, and you're not entitled to anybody else's. To give up value now, the deal has to be almost certainly in the favor of the team giving up the pick, particularly since most teams which are liable to trade away picks for future picks (particularly in the first round, since bad teams never trade away their first round picks for future considerations) are teams that consider themselves potential contenders for this year, assuming the addition of a cog or two. To sacrifice a pick that might be a cog to help you contend, you need to be clearly a winner in the deal where you lose the pick without receiving commensurate consideration in this draft. Since the season hasn't happened yet, almost all teams will value "impact in this coming season" over "ill-defined impact in the seasons following this one", coaches and GM can lose their jobs in a season, after all, and "I set us up well to win eventually" isn't going to fix a disappointing season.

[superfan]

Great stuff, Lurker. And excellent explanation on how the value of the 2008 first round pick is computed - I was wondering how you came up with that number as I was reading the post.

I agree that either scenario would have been hammered by the win now crowd given that Meachem was still on the board. Many at draft time were hoping that Meachem was the pick for Green Bay. If he had been gone, it would have been a more popular move, IMO.

I don't mind discussing this in season, it's an interesting topic.

[The Leaper]

The Browns knew full well that Brady was going to plunge dramatically after he got past Miami. They weren't going to be very serious about "dealing" with Thompson, as some would suggest. It was a "take-it-or-leave-it" scenario...and given the deal we've heard about, it was correct for Thompson to pass on it.

The draft next year will be very deep at RB anyway. You've got 6-8 RBs who could be legitimate first round talents in college right now...and by next year Harrell could be making a major impact.