motife
09-16-2007, 05:41 PM
Scout no fan of ground game
Posted: Sept. 15, 2007
Bob McGinn
East Rutherford, N.J. - It wasn't that Ted Thompson didn't have other options at running back when the National Football League year opened in early March.
But the general manager of the Green Bay Packers preferred holdovers Vernand Morency, P.J. Pope, Noah Herron and what he might find in the draft compared to what was out there.
So Thompson essentially sat tight and now, six months later, he has just about the worst situation at running back of any team in the league.
At least that's the considered opinion of a personnel director for another NFL team who agreed for another year to share some of what he knows with readers of the Journal Sentinel.
"I guess he's trying to win with defense," our scout said. "Build a defense and I guess then try to cobble together an offense. It's suspect to me in that, if you're going to try to win defensively, you usually try to match it up with a run game. Control the clock, keep them off the field, wear people down.
"But there's no running back."
Partially as a result, our scout sees the '07 Packers with a ceiling of 9-7 and a floor of 6-10. Given his view that the AFC once again is by far the better of the two conferences, he pegged the Packers about the 23rd best team in the NFL.
"The Bears are still the team to beat in the North just because defensively they're so dominant," our scout said. "The question for them will be the running game . . . if they have the running game to overcome that quarterback (Rex Grossman) again. The rookie quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson) is going to be too much for Minnesota. Detroit is awful."
Given his low regard for Grossman and running back Cedric Benson, our scout could see Green Bay having a shot at winning the division.
"I think it can be done," he said. "If I was Chicago, I'd be scared to death of the running game, especially after the San Diego game. Yeah, I could see them falling apart offensively. I could see the Bears coming back to Green Bay rather than Green Bay going up and surpassing them."
Our scout agreed with Thompson's decision to draw a financial line in the sand before Ahman Green signed with Houston on March 5 for $22.8 million over four years ($5 million signing bonus). What he didn't agree with were the Packers' moves after that.
"I think Ahman Green is kind of done," he said. "But if I'm not going to do this, then what am I going to do? I just think there's things you have to do at that position. It's hard to fake that."
Our scout first mentioned Thomas Jones, who was traded by the Bears to the Jets on March 5, but retracted his name when reminded that the two rivals almost never trade with one another.
His other best option would have been to sign Travis Henry, who left Tennessee on March 3 for a five-year, $22.5 million deal with Denver ($6 million signing bonus, $6 million option bonus payable in '08). He would have jumped on the 28-year-old Henry, who rushed for 1,211 yards in 14 games last season.
The Packers, however, made the evaluation that Henry wasn't a good fit.
"If he was in Green Bay they'd be much more likely to be a threat," our scout said. "Because he could be the running back who could control the game. He's a Red."
Our scout color-codes all players into five categories, in the descending order of Blue, Red, Purple, Green and Yellow.
On March 7, Jamal Lewis left Baltimore for a one-year, $3.5 million contract in Cleveland. Our scout would have demurred, saying, "I'm scared to death of him."
A day later, the Ravens reacted by trading two third-round picks to the Bills for Willis McGahee, who received a seven-year, $40.11 million deal with a $7.5 million signing bonus. Assigning McGahee a Purple-plus grade, our scout said, "I probably would have done it (in Green Bay)."
San Diego had Michael Turner on the trading block but at what our scout regarded as an exorbitant price.
"It probably would have taken their 1 (first-round choice) to get him," he said. "He has a chance to be pretty good but it's hard to do that because he's never done it. Right now, I'd give him a Purple-plus."
Two others backs, Tatum Bell and Reuben Droughns, were traded. On March 2, Bell went from Denver to Detroit for cornerback Dre' Bly. On March 9, Droughns went from Cleveland to the New York Giants for wide receiver Tim Carter, signing a three-year, $6 million deal.
"The players call Bell 'Chandelier,' " our scout said. "Fragile. No."
Our scout included Droughns in a group of backs with Chris Brown and Dominic Rhodes, who left Indianapolis for Oakland as an unrestricted free agent on March 9 for $7.5 million over two years. Brown re-signed with Tennessee on June 19, getting one year at $1.4 million.
In each case, our scout ranks them as better than anyone in Green Bay and says each would have been a worthwhile addition to a running back-by-committee arrangement.
"Reuben isn't a great player but he's tough and runs hard and shows up every week," our scout said. "There's something to be said for that. I'd give Brown a Purple-minus or Green-plus just because of the injury thing. Rhodes is a guy who's done it.
"If I didn't have anybody, they could certainly fit in. To me, if they were there with Jackson in Green Bay, at least you'd feel, 'We're OK.' You could split it 60-40 or however."
Running backs Adrian Peterson went to Minnesota at No. 7 in the draft and Marshawn Lynch went to Buffalo at No. 12. The next back didn't go until No. 49.
Moving up to draft Peterson would have required trading the Packers' first-round pick in '08 and possibly more. Moving up to No. 10 or No. 11 for Lynch would have required a third-round pick.
"If you're sitting there and you've got no running back, and we're this close to a guy, I would have traded up and gotten Lynch," our scout said. "He's got a chance to be a good player."
Instead, Thompson chose defensive tackle Justin Harrell at No. 16. Then he traded down in the second round from No. 47 to No. 63, obtaining the third-round pick that became safety Aaron Rouse.
At No. 63, the Packers got around to taking Jackson. Two of the backs who went between No. 47 and No. 62, Chris Henry (No. 50) and Brian Leonard (52), have looked better so far than Jackson, according to our scout. Of the other backs on the board, our scout said only two have looked better than Jackson: Lorenzo Booker (No. 71) and Kolby Smith (No. 148). Later, Thompson added DeShawn Wynn at No. 228.
Of the best backs remaining on the street, our scout said neither Corey Dillon nor Domanick Davis had anything left. To his knowledge, there are no worthwhile backs on the block, but he indicated that might change by the Oct. 16 trading deadline.
As for how Thompson rates compared to the 16 other general managers in the league, our scout said he would take seven over Thompson but would take Thompson over nine.
"There's some stuff he's done that's OK," our scout said. "The defensive line you kind of like. The linebackers are solid. There again, I don't think there's a great (player). The secondary, to me, is suspect.
"I think the drafts are OK. I don't think there's anything stellar but I don't think there's been any gigantic mistakes, either. I think his drafts are probably better than (Mike) Sherman's."
Thompson has turned 23 selections and wide receiver Javon Walker into 34 choices by trading down nine times without once dealing up.
"He likes to have the picks," our scout said. "You've got to be pretty lucky doing that. You sit and all that stuff has to come to you. Then you've got to have people, ownership, with patience around you."
Our scout wouldn't hazard a guess on the futures of Thompson, who is in the third year of a five-year deal, and coach Mike McCarthy, who is in the second of a three-year contract. Of the 31 other coaches, our scout said he would take 19 over McCarthy but would take McCarthy over 12.
As for Brett Favre, our scout listed 16 quarterbacks whom he would rather have than him to win a game right now.
Who is our scout's best guess for a surprise team? The Washington Redskins, because "they're pretty good on defense, they can run the ball and they've got some receivers."
And his Super Bowl matchup? New England over Dallas.
"New England has done it and they're a much better team than they've been in a couple years," our scout said. "It's certainly good enough for that guy (Bill Belichick) to win another championship. They've been through enough that I don't know that (NFL penalties for spying on the New York Jets) would bother them."
Our scout would rank four or five AFC teams better than the Cowboys.
"You look at just the personnel and it's not really close," he said, referring to the AFC vs. NFC. "I think it's ownership, then I think it becomes competition. The good teams are in the AFC. If you're going to compete with them you have to become a pretty good team."
Posted: Sept. 15, 2007
Bob McGinn
East Rutherford, N.J. - It wasn't that Ted Thompson didn't have other options at running back when the National Football League year opened in early March.
But the general manager of the Green Bay Packers preferred holdovers Vernand Morency, P.J. Pope, Noah Herron and what he might find in the draft compared to what was out there.
So Thompson essentially sat tight and now, six months later, he has just about the worst situation at running back of any team in the league.
At least that's the considered opinion of a personnel director for another NFL team who agreed for another year to share some of what he knows with readers of the Journal Sentinel.
"I guess he's trying to win with defense," our scout said. "Build a defense and I guess then try to cobble together an offense. It's suspect to me in that, if you're going to try to win defensively, you usually try to match it up with a run game. Control the clock, keep them off the field, wear people down.
"But there's no running back."
Partially as a result, our scout sees the '07 Packers with a ceiling of 9-7 and a floor of 6-10. Given his view that the AFC once again is by far the better of the two conferences, he pegged the Packers about the 23rd best team in the NFL.
"The Bears are still the team to beat in the North just because defensively they're so dominant," our scout said. "The question for them will be the running game . . . if they have the running game to overcome that quarterback (Rex Grossman) again. The rookie quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson) is going to be too much for Minnesota. Detroit is awful."
Given his low regard for Grossman and running back Cedric Benson, our scout could see Green Bay having a shot at winning the division.
"I think it can be done," he said. "If I was Chicago, I'd be scared to death of the running game, especially after the San Diego game. Yeah, I could see them falling apart offensively. I could see the Bears coming back to Green Bay rather than Green Bay going up and surpassing them."
Our scout agreed with Thompson's decision to draw a financial line in the sand before Ahman Green signed with Houston on March 5 for $22.8 million over four years ($5 million signing bonus). What he didn't agree with were the Packers' moves after that.
"I think Ahman Green is kind of done," he said. "But if I'm not going to do this, then what am I going to do? I just think there's things you have to do at that position. It's hard to fake that."
Our scout first mentioned Thomas Jones, who was traded by the Bears to the Jets on March 5, but retracted his name when reminded that the two rivals almost never trade with one another.
His other best option would have been to sign Travis Henry, who left Tennessee on March 3 for a five-year, $22.5 million deal with Denver ($6 million signing bonus, $6 million option bonus payable in '08). He would have jumped on the 28-year-old Henry, who rushed for 1,211 yards in 14 games last season.
The Packers, however, made the evaluation that Henry wasn't a good fit.
"If he was in Green Bay they'd be much more likely to be a threat," our scout said. "Because he could be the running back who could control the game. He's a Red."
Our scout color-codes all players into five categories, in the descending order of Blue, Red, Purple, Green and Yellow.
On March 7, Jamal Lewis left Baltimore for a one-year, $3.5 million contract in Cleveland. Our scout would have demurred, saying, "I'm scared to death of him."
A day later, the Ravens reacted by trading two third-round picks to the Bills for Willis McGahee, who received a seven-year, $40.11 million deal with a $7.5 million signing bonus. Assigning McGahee a Purple-plus grade, our scout said, "I probably would have done it (in Green Bay)."
San Diego had Michael Turner on the trading block but at what our scout regarded as an exorbitant price.
"It probably would have taken their 1 (first-round choice) to get him," he said. "He has a chance to be pretty good but it's hard to do that because he's never done it. Right now, I'd give him a Purple-plus."
Two others backs, Tatum Bell and Reuben Droughns, were traded. On March 2, Bell went from Denver to Detroit for cornerback Dre' Bly. On March 9, Droughns went from Cleveland to the New York Giants for wide receiver Tim Carter, signing a three-year, $6 million deal.
"The players call Bell 'Chandelier,' " our scout said. "Fragile. No."
Our scout included Droughns in a group of backs with Chris Brown and Dominic Rhodes, who left Indianapolis for Oakland as an unrestricted free agent on March 9 for $7.5 million over two years. Brown re-signed with Tennessee on June 19, getting one year at $1.4 million.
In each case, our scout ranks them as better than anyone in Green Bay and says each would have been a worthwhile addition to a running back-by-committee arrangement.
"Reuben isn't a great player but he's tough and runs hard and shows up every week," our scout said. "There's something to be said for that. I'd give Brown a Purple-minus or Green-plus just because of the injury thing. Rhodes is a guy who's done it.
"If I didn't have anybody, they could certainly fit in. To me, if they were there with Jackson in Green Bay, at least you'd feel, 'We're OK.' You could split it 60-40 or however."
Running backs Adrian Peterson went to Minnesota at No. 7 in the draft and Marshawn Lynch went to Buffalo at No. 12. The next back didn't go until No. 49.
Moving up to draft Peterson would have required trading the Packers' first-round pick in '08 and possibly more. Moving up to No. 10 or No. 11 for Lynch would have required a third-round pick.
"If you're sitting there and you've got no running back, and we're this close to a guy, I would have traded up and gotten Lynch," our scout said. "He's got a chance to be a good player."
Instead, Thompson chose defensive tackle Justin Harrell at No. 16. Then he traded down in the second round from No. 47 to No. 63, obtaining the third-round pick that became safety Aaron Rouse.
At No. 63, the Packers got around to taking Jackson. Two of the backs who went between No. 47 and No. 62, Chris Henry (No. 50) and Brian Leonard (52), have looked better so far than Jackson, according to our scout. Of the other backs on the board, our scout said only two have looked better than Jackson: Lorenzo Booker (No. 71) and Kolby Smith (No. 148). Later, Thompson added DeShawn Wynn at No. 228.
Of the best backs remaining on the street, our scout said neither Corey Dillon nor Domanick Davis had anything left. To his knowledge, there are no worthwhile backs on the block, but he indicated that might change by the Oct. 16 trading deadline.
As for how Thompson rates compared to the 16 other general managers in the league, our scout said he would take seven over Thompson but would take Thompson over nine.
"There's some stuff he's done that's OK," our scout said. "The defensive line you kind of like. The linebackers are solid. There again, I don't think there's a great (player). The secondary, to me, is suspect.
"I think the drafts are OK. I don't think there's anything stellar but I don't think there's been any gigantic mistakes, either. I think his drafts are probably better than (Mike) Sherman's."
Thompson has turned 23 selections and wide receiver Javon Walker into 34 choices by trading down nine times without once dealing up.
"He likes to have the picks," our scout said. "You've got to be pretty lucky doing that. You sit and all that stuff has to come to you. Then you've got to have people, ownership, with patience around you."
Our scout wouldn't hazard a guess on the futures of Thompson, who is in the third year of a five-year deal, and coach Mike McCarthy, who is in the second of a three-year contract. Of the 31 other coaches, our scout said he would take 19 over McCarthy but would take McCarthy over 12.
As for Brett Favre, our scout listed 16 quarterbacks whom he would rather have than him to win a game right now.
Who is our scout's best guess for a surprise team? The Washington Redskins, because "they're pretty good on defense, they can run the ball and they've got some receivers."
And his Super Bowl matchup? New England over Dallas.
"New England has done it and they're a much better team than they've been in a couple years," our scout said. "It's certainly good enough for that guy (Bill Belichick) to win another championship. They've been through enough that I don't know that (NFL penalties for spying on the New York Jets) would bother them."
Our scout would rank four or five AFC teams better than the Cowboys.
"You look at just the personnel and it's not really close," he said, referring to the AFC vs. NFC. "I think it's ownership, then I think it becomes competition. The good teams are in the AFC. If you're going to compete with them you have to become a pretty good team."