motife
09-22-2007, 11:16 AM
Crunching the Numbers: Packers' offensive burst a bit misleading
Posted: Sept. 21, 2007
Greg A. Bedard
E-MAIL
Green Bay - One could almost feel the entire state of Wisconsin exhale following the Green Bay Packers' 35-13 victory over the New York Giants last Sunday.
After generating just three points in the opener, the Packers' offense exploded with five touchdowns at the Meadowlands.
Considering the strength of the defense, most Packers fans probably felt the production of the offense would determine the season's success.
So 35 points has to be a great sign, right? Certainly. But a look inside the numbers shows the Packers have a lot of work to do.
First, the New York Giants have been terrible on defense. And while they may be ranked 29th overall, 19th against the run, and 32nd against the pass, the guys over at footballoutsiders.com have a more damning view. Their computations say the Giants not only have the worst defense in the league, they have the worst by far.
The ratings used by Football Outsiders are complicated, but they are definitely worth a look. Basically, the Giants' defense performs 56.7% less than the league average. The New Orleans Saints at 47.3% are the only team even close to the Giants.
So the Giants' weakness obviously helped Green Bay, and probably no place more than in the red zone. Thanks to their 4-for-4 touchdown performance last week inside the 20-yard line, the Packers lead the NFL in red-zone scoring with four touchdowns in five trips (80%) so far this season.
But that success rate surely won't continue for an entire season.
On the other side, the Packers' defense is the fourth stingiest inside the 20, having given up just one touchdown in five red-zone possessions.
Another stat that will likely need to improve against better defenses is quarterback Brett Favre's deep passing. Against the Giants, just eight of his 29 completions gained more than 10 yards. And he threw the ball more than 15 yards in the air five times.
Combine a short passing game, which worked wonders against the Giants, with a 29th-ranked rushing offense and the Packers are going to see safeties begin to creep in. Green Bay will need to stretch the field at some point to counter that.
So those are the mood-dampening numbers on offense. But there is certainly room for improvement.
The No. 1 spot where the Packers need to make progress is on first down. In two games, they have gained 117 yards on 54 first-down attempts (2.2 average). Their opponents have averaged 4.7 on first down.
The biggest culprit has been the running game. The 54 yards gain by Green Bay backs on first down is next-to-last in the NFL. Only San Francisco's 25 is worse.
If the Packers can improve their first-down performance - and they certainly should be able to - that will allow Green Bay to advance from its middle-of-the-pack ranking (16th) on third down.
So while the enthusiasm over last week's offensive performance against the Giants should be tempered, the Packers certainly have areas where they can improve as the season moves along.
Deciphering the digits
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this is just third time in Packers history that the club has beaten two playoff teams from the previous season to start 2-0. No Packers team has ever beaten three playoff team to begin a season, something this team could accomplish Sunday.
With San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson coming to town, this marks the seventh time the Packers have faced the reigning NFL MVP since Favre won the award in 1997. The Packers are 1-5 in the previous matchups, with a 41-7 win over Rich Gannon and Oakland Raiders in 2003 the lone victory.
Most people know Tomlinson, who tossed his seventh career touchdown last week, can throw almost as well as he runs and catches. Here are his passing stats: 8 of 11 for 143 yards, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and one sack. His passer rating is 154.4. A perfect rating is 158.
Posted: Sept. 21, 2007
Greg A. Bedard
Green Bay - One could almost feel the entire state of Wisconsin exhale following the Green Bay Packers' 35-13 victory over the New York Giants last Sunday.
After generating just three points in the opener, the Packers' offense exploded with five touchdowns at the Meadowlands.
Considering the strength of the defense, most Packers fans probably felt the production of the offense would determine the season's success.
So 35 points has to be a great sign, right? Certainly. But a look inside the numbers shows the Packers have a lot of work to do.
First, the New York Giants have been terrible on defense. And while they may be ranked 29th overall, 19th against the run, and 32nd against the pass, the guys over at footballoutsiders.com have a more damning view. Their computations say the Giants not only have the worst defense in the league, they have the worst by far.
The ratings used by Football Outsiders are complicated, but they are definitely worth a look. Basically, the Giants' defense performs 56.7% less than the league average. The New Orleans Saints at 47.3% are the only team even close to the Giants.
So the Giants' weakness obviously helped Green Bay, and probably no place more than in the red zone. Thanks to their 4-for-4 touchdown performance last week inside the 20-yard line, the Packers lead the NFL in red-zone scoring with four touchdowns in five trips (80%) so far this season.
But that success rate surely won't continue for an entire season.
On the other side, the Packers' defense is the fourth stingiest inside the 20, having given up just one touchdown in five red-zone possessions.
Another stat that will likely need to improve against better defenses is quarterback Brett Favre's deep passing. Against the Giants, just eight of his 29 completions gained more than 10 yards. And he threw the ball more than 15 yards in the air five times.
Combine a short passing game, which worked wonders against the Giants, with a 29th-ranked rushing offense and the Packers are going to see safeties begin to creep in. Green Bay will need to stretch the field at some point to counter that.
So those are the mood-dampening numbers on offense. But there is certainly room for improvement.
The No. 1 spot where the Packers need to make progress is on first down. In two games, they have gained 117 yards on 54 first-down attempts (2.2 average). Their opponents have averaged 4.7 on first down.
The biggest culprit has been the running game. The 54 yards gain by Green Bay backs on first down is next-to-last in the NFL. Only San Francisco's 25 is worse.
If the Packers can improve their first-down performance - and they certainly should be able to - that will allow Green Bay to advance from its middle-of-the-pack ranking (16th) on third down.
So while the enthusiasm over last week's offensive performance against the Giants should be tempered, the Packers certainly have areas where they can improve as the season moves along.
Deciphering the digits
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this is just third time in Packers history that the club has beaten two playoff teams from the previous season to start 2-0. No Packers team has ever beaten three playoff team to begin a season, something this team could accomplish Sunday.
With San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson coming to town, this marks the seventh time the Packers have faced the reigning NFL MVP since Favre won the award in 1997. The Packers are 1-5 in the previous matchups, with a 41-7 win over Rich Gannon and Oakland Raiders in 2003 the lone victory.
Most people know Tomlinson, who tossed his seventh career touchdown last week, can throw almost as well as he runs and catches. Here are his passing stats: 8 of 11 for 143 yards, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and one sack. His passer rating is 154.4. A perfect rating is 158.