Bretsky
05-06-2006, 05:53 AM
Thumbs up and thumbs down on Thompson's draft
Posted: May 2, 2006
Cliff Christl
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Green Bay - What's there to like about the Green Bay Packers' draft? What's there not to like?
At this point, it would be foolish to grade the players that were selected. That's an exercise in futility. But there are at least two conclusions that can be drawn: One a plus, the other a minus.
Thumbs up
Let's examine first what deserves a thumbs up.
Through general manager Ted Thompson's wheeling and dealing, the Packers wound up with 12 picks, the most in six years, and managed to do so without sacrificing the fifth selection in the draft.
Not every trade down is necessarily a good trade, but after the first round - maybe even after the first four picks or so - the chances of landing a star player greatly diminish.
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Since the first common draft in 1967, only six players chosen in the third round have been selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame; only four from the fourth round; and only two from rounds five through seven.
The chances of landing a Pro Bowl player with one of the top five choices are 54%. The odds drop to 28% for choices 20 through 25 and, no doubt, continue to fall through subsequent rounds.
That's not to say that there aren't a lot of good players uncovered from the second round on down. But most of them are just that: Good players. In the end, there's usually not a lot of difference among those who make it.
And if the Packers are a typical team, only about 20 to 25% of those picks will establish themselves as solid starters. Since the draft was reduced to seven rounds in 1994, the Packers have drafted 94 players in rounds two through seven, not counting this year's picks. Being generous, 23 of those 94, or 24%, became good to very good players. Another four or so might have been on the bubble and the jury is still out on some from the past few drafts.
What's interesting is that those 23 players were almost evenly divided by rounds. In fact, the Packers drafted more in the seventh round (Adam Timmerman, Jerald Sowell, Donald Driver and Mark Tauscher) than in the second (Darren Sharper, Mike Wahle and Chad Clifton, although Nick Collins is almost sure to be a fourth).
What all that suggests is that a team has about a one-in-four, one-in-five shot of hitting on a solid player from Round 2 on down, but the more picks the better its odds.
That was Mike Sherman's failing. In two of his three drafts as general manager, from 2002 through 2004, he exercised fewer than seven choices.
For example, he has been criticized for the defensive linemen he drafted, all in rounds three through six: Donnell Washington (3rd in '04), Corey Williams (6th in '04), Kenny Peterson (3rd in '03), James Lee (5th in '03) and Aaron Kampman (5th in '02).
Sherman hit on Kampman. He struck out on Lee. The other three still have a chance to be good players, but aren't yet.
If one takes into account that more mistakes are probably made on defensive linemen than any other position, Sherman's batting average in that area isn't all that bad.
Ron Wolf, for example, didn't fare any better with mid-round defensive linemen in his 10 drafts as general manager. He took seven of them: Gabe Wilkins (4th in '94), Darius Holland (3rd in '95), Jermaine Smith (4th in '97), Jonathan Brown (3rd in '98), Cletidus Hunt (3rd in '99), Steve Warren (3rd in '00) and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (5th in '00).
When you compare Sherman's choices with the rest of the league, he didn't do that poorly, either.
From 2002-'04, a total of 68 defensive linemen were drafted in rounds three through six, where Sherman took all five of his picks. Based on the players' listing at NFL.com, 15 are already out of the league, 10 have been waived by their original teams but are still hanging on, and two others were traded for conditional choices that didn't have to be paid. Washington is one of five who is still active, but hasn't played in a game.
That adds up to 27 - not counting the five who haven't played - and figures to a failure rate already of 40%. Of the other 41, only 20 have averaged 12 starts per season.
A handful or so of those 20 have become stalwarts, including Chicago's Alex Brown (4th round in '02), New England's Jarvis Green (4th in '02), Seattle's Rocky Bernard (5th in '02), Chicago's Ian Scott (4th in '03), Indianapolis' Robert Mathis (5th in '03) and Kansas City's Jared Allen (4th in '04).
But Kampman also belongs in that group. Among the 68 defensive linemen drafted in rounds two through six from 2002-'04, he ranks third in average tackles per season and sixth in average sacks. Moreover, Williams ranks 17th in tackles and Peterson, 22nd.
In other words, Sherman drafted three of the 22 most productive mid-round defensive linemen in the draft during his three years as GM. That's pretty good out of five picks. For example, Denver drafted three in the same rounds over the same span and wound up cutting all three.
But Sherman's mistake was that he essentially used eight picks to draft Peterson, Lee, Washington and Williams because he moved up each time and traded away an extra selection. Sherman might claim that trading up is what allowed him to land three of the top 22, but their production to this point wouldn't support the argument.
Clearly, the odds would seem to favor Thompson's approach.
Thumbs down
What about the thumbs down?
Two of the Packers' top three picks Saturday were offensive lineman Daryn Colledge and wide receiver Greg Jennings. They both might turn out to be fine players.
But. ... And it's a big but.
Colledge essentially was drafted to take the place of guard Mike Wahle. In fact, on draft day, offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski likened Colledge to Wahle, a salary cap casualty who signed with Carolina a year ago. Jennings was drafted soon after the Packers traded their best wide receiver, Javon Walker, to Denver.
Wahle was 27 years old in his final season with the Packers. Walker also turned 27 last season.
They've both now played in a Pro Bowl. They were two of the best players in late 2003 when the Packers had a legitimate shot at winning the NFC. They were again two of the best when the Packers went 10-6 and won another division title in 2004.
That they still aren't fixtures in the Packers' lineup is a blot on the entire organization. Somehow the Packers should have found a way to keep Wahle, and to have been more proactive with Walker in an effort to avoid the estrangement that preceded his trade demands.
The Packers aren't going to go anywhere if they have to spend choice picks every draft filling holes created by players bailing out while they were still in their prime.
The day the Packers lost Wahle a little more than a year ago, they became a worse team. And even after drafting a windfall 12 players over the weekend, they may be a worse team for having traded Walker, although in the end they may have had no choice.
Until the Packers put a halt to these defections - and maybe they've taken a step in that direction by re-signing Kampman this off-season - they can't hope to do any better than tread water.
Posted: May 2, 2006
Cliff Christl
Green Bay - What's there to like about the Green Bay Packers' draft? What's there not to like?
At this point, it would be foolish to grade the players that were selected. That's an exercise in futility. But there are at least two conclusions that can be drawn: One a plus, the other a minus.
Thumbs up
Let's examine first what deserves a thumbs up.
Through general manager Ted Thompson's wheeling and dealing, the Packers wound up with 12 picks, the most in six years, and managed to do so without sacrificing the fifth selection in the draft.
Not every trade down is necessarily a good trade, but after the first round - maybe even after the first four picks or so - the chances of landing a star player greatly diminish.
Advertisement
Since the first common draft in 1967, only six players chosen in the third round have been selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame; only four from the fourth round; and only two from rounds five through seven.
The chances of landing a Pro Bowl player with one of the top five choices are 54%. The odds drop to 28% for choices 20 through 25 and, no doubt, continue to fall through subsequent rounds.
That's not to say that there aren't a lot of good players uncovered from the second round on down. But most of them are just that: Good players. In the end, there's usually not a lot of difference among those who make it.
And if the Packers are a typical team, only about 20 to 25% of those picks will establish themselves as solid starters. Since the draft was reduced to seven rounds in 1994, the Packers have drafted 94 players in rounds two through seven, not counting this year's picks. Being generous, 23 of those 94, or 24%, became good to very good players. Another four or so might have been on the bubble and the jury is still out on some from the past few drafts.
What's interesting is that those 23 players were almost evenly divided by rounds. In fact, the Packers drafted more in the seventh round (Adam Timmerman, Jerald Sowell, Donald Driver and Mark Tauscher) than in the second (Darren Sharper, Mike Wahle and Chad Clifton, although Nick Collins is almost sure to be a fourth).
What all that suggests is that a team has about a one-in-four, one-in-five shot of hitting on a solid player from Round 2 on down, but the more picks the better its odds.
That was Mike Sherman's failing. In two of his three drafts as general manager, from 2002 through 2004, he exercised fewer than seven choices.
For example, he has been criticized for the defensive linemen he drafted, all in rounds three through six: Donnell Washington (3rd in '04), Corey Williams (6th in '04), Kenny Peterson (3rd in '03), James Lee (5th in '03) and Aaron Kampman (5th in '02).
Sherman hit on Kampman. He struck out on Lee. The other three still have a chance to be good players, but aren't yet.
If one takes into account that more mistakes are probably made on defensive linemen than any other position, Sherman's batting average in that area isn't all that bad.
Ron Wolf, for example, didn't fare any better with mid-round defensive linemen in his 10 drafts as general manager. He took seven of them: Gabe Wilkins (4th in '94), Darius Holland (3rd in '95), Jermaine Smith (4th in '97), Jonathan Brown (3rd in '98), Cletidus Hunt (3rd in '99), Steve Warren (3rd in '00) and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (5th in '00).
When you compare Sherman's choices with the rest of the league, he didn't do that poorly, either.
From 2002-'04, a total of 68 defensive linemen were drafted in rounds three through six, where Sherman took all five of his picks. Based on the players' listing at NFL.com, 15 are already out of the league, 10 have been waived by their original teams but are still hanging on, and two others were traded for conditional choices that didn't have to be paid. Washington is one of five who is still active, but hasn't played in a game.
That adds up to 27 - not counting the five who haven't played - and figures to a failure rate already of 40%. Of the other 41, only 20 have averaged 12 starts per season.
A handful or so of those 20 have become stalwarts, including Chicago's Alex Brown (4th round in '02), New England's Jarvis Green (4th in '02), Seattle's Rocky Bernard (5th in '02), Chicago's Ian Scott (4th in '03), Indianapolis' Robert Mathis (5th in '03) and Kansas City's Jared Allen (4th in '04).
But Kampman also belongs in that group. Among the 68 defensive linemen drafted in rounds two through six from 2002-'04, he ranks third in average tackles per season and sixth in average sacks. Moreover, Williams ranks 17th in tackles and Peterson, 22nd.
In other words, Sherman drafted three of the 22 most productive mid-round defensive linemen in the draft during his three years as GM. That's pretty good out of five picks. For example, Denver drafted three in the same rounds over the same span and wound up cutting all three.
But Sherman's mistake was that he essentially used eight picks to draft Peterson, Lee, Washington and Williams because he moved up each time and traded away an extra selection. Sherman might claim that trading up is what allowed him to land three of the top 22, but their production to this point wouldn't support the argument.
Clearly, the odds would seem to favor Thompson's approach.
Thumbs down
What about the thumbs down?
Two of the Packers' top three picks Saturday were offensive lineman Daryn Colledge and wide receiver Greg Jennings. They both might turn out to be fine players.
But. ... And it's a big but.
Colledge essentially was drafted to take the place of guard Mike Wahle. In fact, on draft day, offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski likened Colledge to Wahle, a salary cap casualty who signed with Carolina a year ago. Jennings was drafted soon after the Packers traded their best wide receiver, Javon Walker, to Denver.
Wahle was 27 years old in his final season with the Packers. Walker also turned 27 last season.
They've both now played in a Pro Bowl. They were two of the best players in late 2003 when the Packers had a legitimate shot at winning the NFC. They were again two of the best when the Packers went 10-6 and won another division title in 2004.
That they still aren't fixtures in the Packers' lineup is a blot on the entire organization. Somehow the Packers should have found a way to keep Wahle, and to have been more proactive with Walker in an effort to avoid the estrangement that preceded his trade demands.
The Packers aren't going to go anywhere if they have to spend choice picks every draft filling holes created by players bailing out while they were still in their prime.
The day the Packers lost Wahle a little more than a year ago, they became a worse team. And even after drafting a windfall 12 players over the weekend, they may be a worse team for having traded Walker, although in the end they may have had no choice.
Until the Packers put a halt to these defections - and maybe they've taken a step in that direction by re-signing Kampman this off-season - they can't hope to do any better than tread water.