Bretsky
09-29-2007, 09:00 PM
Packers headed to great heights
Posted: Sept. 29, 2007
Bob McGinn
Minneapolis - Rushing to judgment in September is never a wise move. The inherent unpredictability of the National Football League all but demands a cautious, tempered approach.
It seems like just about everyone has taken that sane, smart stance in regard to the Green Bay Packers' 3-0 start. Everyone, that is, except me.
On the morning of the opener, it was written here that the Packers would finish 10-6 and capture the NFC North Division by one game over the Chicago Bears.
Three victories later, the NFC North race is all but over and the winner, Green Bay, will finish anywhere from 11-5 to 13-3, maybe even 14-2. If Packers' fans were rooting for Dallas to defeat Chicago last Sunday night, they shouldn't have. The real issue is whether the Packers can wrest home-field advantage from the Cowboys or someone else and play in Super Bowl XLII.
If a "Perfect Storm" can materialize in pro football, it has been materializing in the NFL's smallest city for more than a year.
It's just that almost no one around the country picked up on it.
Check out the NFL statistics this week. What hits most people right between the eyes is the Packers' No. 32 ranking in rushing. After that, they look for evidence that the Packers might overcome such a deficiency.
The problem is, the Packers rank only 15th in yards allowed, not to mention a modest 18th in total offense.
And so most national observers continue taking a show-me position on Green Bay, which is perfectly understandable given the Packers have played in relative anonymity (three noon starts) and the history of the league. Chris Landry, a former NFL scout now working for Fox Radio, offered a typical slant last Sunday about an hour after Green Bay defeated San Diego: "The Packers maybe will be a playoff team."
Today at the Metrodome, the Packers easily might get beat. This looks like one of the two or three most difficult games remaining on their schedule. Form seldom holds in this rivalry, the motivated Vikings play very good defense and the Packers are due for a bad day.
The Packers have their share of holes, and obviously the most glaring is running back. At this point, there is little to suggest they could actually win the Super Bowl against a powerful opponent such as New England or Indianapolis. If the Packers were in the AFC, with 12 games against AFC teams instead of four, their outlook wouldn't be as rosy.
But the NFC isn't the AFC. In fact, it's not even close. The fact that the Bears were the NFC representative in the Super Bowl with a 15-3 record despite having a marginal athlete and player at quarterback should speak volumes, and the NFC doesn't look any better this year.
The roster assembled by Ted Thompson for 2½ years and Mike Sherman for four years before that has solid depth. Still, the Packers must continue their amazing run of good fortune on the injury front. It has been 30 games since the team has lost a starter (Ahman Green) to a season-ending type of injury.
They also will need some breaks. If Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid hadn't dropped the ball and brought a legitimate punt returner to the opener, the Packers probably would be 2-1.
But no team can win 12 or more games without the ball bouncing right for them and avoiding injuries to star players. If the Bears weren't so decimated by injury on defense, it wouldn't be so easy to count them out of the division race.
The reasons for being bullish on the Packers are many.
For one, the toughest portion of the schedule is over. They're 3-0 for just the 13th time in the 87 years, but what observers from afar often forget is that no team over time has played better in November and December than Green Bay.
You know the reasons why. The Packers have always structured their teams for snow, slop and sub-freezing temperatures. The change in the weather removes the staying power, if not the will, from some visiting teams. And the intense full houses at Lambeau Field means the Packers can never pack it in.
With all the attention being paid to Brett Favre and his records, the Packers continue to base their winning equation on defense and special teams.
That defense might rank 15th but by season's end it probably will rank in the top five.
Look at the quarterbacks the Packers have faced. Donovan McNabb is among the very best, Eli Manning is on the rise and Philip Rivers was remarkably accurate and went to the Pro Bowl last year.
Look at the offensive lines the Packers have encountered. The Eagles and New York Giants didn't have a weak link up front, and the Chargers' backup right tackle (Jeromey Clary) looked like a real player.
Look at the weapons the Packers have had to deal with. Brian Westbrook is the best all-purpose little back in the league. Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress are terrific. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates might be the finest players at their positions.
Starting today with quarterback Kelly Holcomb and the right side of guard Artis Hicks and right tackle Ryan Cook, the Packers will face a long, long list of inferior quarterbacks and inferior offensive lines.
There will be instances in which Green Bay's formidable pass rush and stubborn run defense simply will overrun offenses. Instead of having the merely five sacks against the cohesive lines that they've met, the Packers will have some games of five or more sacks. Instead of having the merely three interceptions against three of the best quarterbacks in the business, they will have games of three or more interceptions when the withering pressure forces all kinds of wayward passes.
Of the 11 best quarterbacks in the game, the Packers already have beaten three and will face only one from the list: Dallas' Tony Romo.
Expect a shutout or two. Expect some defensive yields of 200 yards or less. Expect domination. Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins and A.J. Hawk and Charles Woodson and Nick Collins haven't even done much yet, but they're too good to remain under wraps much longer.
No question, Rivers exposed some things in the Packers' pass defense. The linebackers still don't cover that well, and the secondary can be vulnerable.
But last Sunday we saw a red-hot Rivers throwing to all-pro talents in perfect weather. To win the Super Bowl, Green Bay will have to handle that type of team. To win nine of their last 13 for a 12-4 record, that really won't be the case.
The Packers have been demonstrating the esprit de corps that distinguishes the better special-teams operations. They've been much improved, and before long there's a chance that dangerous Will Blackmon will be back returning punts.
On offense, the guess is that the Packers will run the ball adequately. Not against Minnesota and maybe not against Chicago, but against the bulk of their schedule they should be OK. Green Bay seems to run better late in the year, and more than likely that will be the case again.
Mike McCarthy's chief failing has been force-feeding the zone run scheme. He started running more power plays against San Diego, a trend that might increase to a 50-50 split with the zone stuff as the season progresses.
That should help, along with the anticipated return of Vernand Morency to full strength. Not that Morency was a difference-maker last season, but having their best back on the field has to provide a boost. All things considered, the line should be competitive, too.
The return of Greg Jennings last week gave the offense an entirely new dimension. Donald Driver is so good that he demands extra coverage, and Jennings and James Jones are nothing to sneeze at as No. 2 and No. 3 receivers by NFL standards.
McCarthy can't keep using so much spread offenses because defenses will adjust, but as a mix it should be effective and here to stay. Not many teams have enough defensive backs to slow down Brett Favre if he keeps playing with poise.
Undoubtedly, Favre will have some awful games. He always has and he probably always will.
But no matter what Favre says, the way he's playing is changing. McCarthy has given Favre greater ownership of the offense with the proliferation of check-with-me's, and as Favre approaches his 38th birthday, he revels in showing people that he can play a thinking man's game right along with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
It's a young, young team, but as the win total mounts the Packers' confidence will soar just as surely as doubts will begin creeping into opponents. It's all new to this bunch, as it was in a way for the Cowboys in 1992 when they were the youngest team in the NFL and went 16-3.
"Our youth really was to our advantage because our attitude was to just play," Troy Aikman once said looking back at the first of the Cowboys' three Super Bowl seasons in the 1990s. "That team, more than any other I was on, just went onto the field and played. Before we knew it we were in the Super Bowl and nobody could believe it."
The point isn't to compare those Cowboys to these Packers. Emmitt Smith, Jay Novacek, Charles Haley and a prized offensive line are pieces the Packers don't have.
But maybe a team doesn't need such might in order to claim the NFC of 2007 in the era of the salary cap.
Crazy? An AFC personnel director characterized me as that at mid-week. But after thinking basically the same way about this team for five or six months, it's no time to turn back now.
Barring a disabling injury or two to their 12-man indispensable player list, the Packers would seem headed for unexpected heights in the next four months.
Posted: Sept. 29, 2007
Bob McGinn
Minneapolis - Rushing to judgment in September is never a wise move. The inherent unpredictability of the National Football League all but demands a cautious, tempered approach.
It seems like just about everyone has taken that sane, smart stance in regard to the Green Bay Packers' 3-0 start. Everyone, that is, except me.
On the morning of the opener, it was written here that the Packers would finish 10-6 and capture the NFC North Division by one game over the Chicago Bears.
Three victories later, the NFC North race is all but over and the winner, Green Bay, will finish anywhere from 11-5 to 13-3, maybe even 14-2. If Packers' fans were rooting for Dallas to defeat Chicago last Sunday night, they shouldn't have. The real issue is whether the Packers can wrest home-field advantage from the Cowboys or someone else and play in Super Bowl XLII.
If a "Perfect Storm" can materialize in pro football, it has been materializing in the NFL's smallest city for more than a year.
It's just that almost no one around the country picked up on it.
Check out the NFL statistics this week. What hits most people right between the eyes is the Packers' No. 32 ranking in rushing. After that, they look for evidence that the Packers might overcome such a deficiency.
The problem is, the Packers rank only 15th in yards allowed, not to mention a modest 18th in total offense.
And so most national observers continue taking a show-me position on Green Bay, which is perfectly understandable given the Packers have played in relative anonymity (three noon starts) and the history of the league. Chris Landry, a former NFL scout now working for Fox Radio, offered a typical slant last Sunday about an hour after Green Bay defeated San Diego: "The Packers maybe will be a playoff team."
Today at the Metrodome, the Packers easily might get beat. This looks like one of the two or three most difficult games remaining on their schedule. Form seldom holds in this rivalry, the motivated Vikings play very good defense and the Packers are due for a bad day.
The Packers have their share of holes, and obviously the most glaring is running back. At this point, there is little to suggest they could actually win the Super Bowl against a powerful opponent such as New England or Indianapolis. If the Packers were in the AFC, with 12 games against AFC teams instead of four, their outlook wouldn't be as rosy.
But the NFC isn't the AFC. In fact, it's not even close. The fact that the Bears were the NFC representative in the Super Bowl with a 15-3 record despite having a marginal athlete and player at quarterback should speak volumes, and the NFC doesn't look any better this year.
The roster assembled by Ted Thompson for 2½ years and Mike Sherman for four years before that has solid depth. Still, the Packers must continue their amazing run of good fortune on the injury front. It has been 30 games since the team has lost a starter (Ahman Green) to a season-ending type of injury.
They also will need some breaks. If Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid hadn't dropped the ball and brought a legitimate punt returner to the opener, the Packers probably would be 2-1.
But no team can win 12 or more games without the ball bouncing right for them and avoiding injuries to star players. If the Bears weren't so decimated by injury on defense, it wouldn't be so easy to count them out of the division race.
The reasons for being bullish on the Packers are many.
For one, the toughest portion of the schedule is over. They're 3-0 for just the 13th time in the 87 years, but what observers from afar often forget is that no team over time has played better in November and December than Green Bay.
You know the reasons why. The Packers have always structured their teams for snow, slop and sub-freezing temperatures. The change in the weather removes the staying power, if not the will, from some visiting teams. And the intense full houses at Lambeau Field means the Packers can never pack it in.
With all the attention being paid to Brett Favre and his records, the Packers continue to base their winning equation on defense and special teams.
That defense might rank 15th but by season's end it probably will rank in the top five.
Look at the quarterbacks the Packers have faced. Donovan McNabb is among the very best, Eli Manning is on the rise and Philip Rivers was remarkably accurate and went to the Pro Bowl last year.
Look at the offensive lines the Packers have encountered. The Eagles and New York Giants didn't have a weak link up front, and the Chargers' backup right tackle (Jeromey Clary) looked like a real player.
Look at the weapons the Packers have had to deal with. Brian Westbrook is the best all-purpose little back in the league. Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress are terrific. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates might be the finest players at their positions.
Starting today with quarterback Kelly Holcomb and the right side of guard Artis Hicks and right tackle Ryan Cook, the Packers will face a long, long list of inferior quarterbacks and inferior offensive lines.
There will be instances in which Green Bay's formidable pass rush and stubborn run defense simply will overrun offenses. Instead of having the merely five sacks against the cohesive lines that they've met, the Packers will have some games of five or more sacks. Instead of having the merely three interceptions against three of the best quarterbacks in the business, they will have games of three or more interceptions when the withering pressure forces all kinds of wayward passes.
Of the 11 best quarterbacks in the game, the Packers already have beaten three and will face only one from the list: Dallas' Tony Romo.
Expect a shutout or two. Expect some defensive yields of 200 yards or less. Expect domination. Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins and A.J. Hawk and Charles Woodson and Nick Collins haven't even done much yet, but they're too good to remain under wraps much longer.
No question, Rivers exposed some things in the Packers' pass defense. The linebackers still don't cover that well, and the secondary can be vulnerable.
But last Sunday we saw a red-hot Rivers throwing to all-pro talents in perfect weather. To win the Super Bowl, Green Bay will have to handle that type of team. To win nine of their last 13 for a 12-4 record, that really won't be the case.
The Packers have been demonstrating the esprit de corps that distinguishes the better special-teams operations. They've been much improved, and before long there's a chance that dangerous Will Blackmon will be back returning punts.
On offense, the guess is that the Packers will run the ball adequately. Not against Minnesota and maybe not against Chicago, but against the bulk of their schedule they should be OK. Green Bay seems to run better late in the year, and more than likely that will be the case again.
Mike McCarthy's chief failing has been force-feeding the zone run scheme. He started running more power plays against San Diego, a trend that might increase to a 50-50 split with the zone stuff as the season progresses.
That should help, along with the anticipated return of Vernand Morency to full strength. Not that Morency was a difference-maker last season, but having their best back on the field has to provide a boost. All things considered, the line should be competitive, too.
The return of Greg Jennings last week gave the offense an entirely new dimension. Donald Driver is so good that he demands extra coverage, and Jennings and James Jones are nothing to sneeze at as No. 2 and No. 3 receivers by NFL standards.
McCarthy can't keep using so much spread offenses because defenses will adjust, but as a mix it should be effective and here to stay. Not many teams have enough defensive backs to slow down Brett Favre if he keeps playing with poise.
Undoubtedly, Favre will have some awful games. He always has and he probably always will.
But no matter what Favre says, the way he's playing is changing. McCarthy has given Favre greater ownership of the offense with the proliferation of check-with-me's, and as Favre approaches his 38th birthday, he revels in showing people that he can play a thinking man's game right along with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
It's a young, young team, but as the win total mounts the Packers' confidence will soar just as surely as doubts will begin creeping into opponents. It's all new to this bunch, as it was in a way for the Cowboys in 1992 when they were the youngest team in the NFL and went 16-3.
"Our youth really was to our advantage because our attitude was to just play," Troy Aikman once said looking back at the first of the Cowboys' three Super Bowl seasons in the 1990s. "That team, more than any other I was on, just went onto the field and played. Before we knew it we were in the Super Bowl and nobody could believe it."
The point isn't to compare those Cowboys to these Packers. Emmitt Smith, Jay Novacek, Charles Haley and a prized offensive line are pieces the Packers don't have.
But maybe a team doesn't need such might in order to claim the NFC of 2007 in the era of the salary cap.
Crazy? An AFC personnel director characterized me as that at mid-week. But after thinking basically the same way about this team for five or six months, it's no time to turn back now.
Barring a disabling injury or two to their 12-man indispensable player list, the Packers would seem headed for unexpected heights in the next four months.