Article--PackerRat Predictions

[MJZiggy]

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Week 3 Ranks/Week 4 Predictions
by Fosco

Alright PackerRat fans, I’ve been posting team rankings for awhile without much debate. Now it’s up to you to decide the future of this weekly topic.

In the past, I gave you a few charts indicating rankings based on key statistical data to use in game predictions. This week I’ll be giving you the actual predictions based solely on those rankings. In addition, I’ll pick a few highlighted games...READ MORE (www.packerrats.com)

[superfan]

Nice work, Fosco. I've enjoyed these, and the new format is much simpler and cleaner. I say run with this, and only include the full charts if requested.

Do the raw numbers take into account factors like injuries and home field advantage? For example, only one point separates the Jags and Chiefs, but the Chiefs are playing at home. So would you consider the margin close enough that you would give the Chiefs the edge since they are playing at home?

[Fosco33]

Nice work, Fosco. I've enjoyed these, and the new format is much simpler and cleaner. I say run with this, and only include the full charts if requested.

Do the raw numbers take into account factors like injuries and home field advantage? For example, only one point separates the Jags and Chiefs, but the Chiefs are playing at home. So would you consider the margin close enough that you would give the Chiefs the edge since they are playing at home?

Thanks, Superfan.

No - but I was thinking about that while on the shitter today (not much to read I guess). But - I could take that into account with a slight percentage adjustment for HVA or key injuries (like Indy having 4 potential starters out OR the Bears losing starters for the year).

It also doesn't account for an 'X' factor (like Hester) or special teams (in general) or an important item often overlooked (starting field position) or red zone efficiency. Again, I could do a slight adjustment.

Before (with the charts), I was limited by page size on what numbers/ranks I could present. The above information could be added to the equation.

Regarding Jags/Chiefs - this one is going to be really low scoring, in my opinion. Two offenses that are in the bottom 7 in scoring in the league with two top 10 defenses in terms of points allowed.

With the Jags coming off a bye week and getting a little healthier - it should be a great matchup. The Chiefs have the best home field advantage over the past two decades - but I'm just not sure it's enough this Sunday.

[MadtownPacker]

I think the bucs will give the colts more then they can handle. Is M. Harrison going to play?

[Fosco33]

I think the bucs will give the colts more then they can handle. Is M. Harrison going to play?

Harrison is listed as questionable for the meeting with the Bucs, as are safety Bob Sanders (ribs) and running back Joseph Addai (shoulder).

Tampa lost both feature running back Carnell "Cadillac" Williams and offensive tackle Luke Petitgout for the season with serious knee injuries.

[mraynrand]

Keep tweaking the formulations FOSCO. Eventually, we can just let the computer tell us the final score and we won't even have to watch the game - or play it for that matter.

[Fosco33]

Keep tweaking the formulations FOSCO. Eventually, we can just let the computer tell us the final score and we won't even have to watch the game - or play it for that matter.

Tell me how you really feel :P

For analytical folks, this is just some fun. For gamblers, it could help organize a decision. Rankings have existed in nearly every form for every sport since time began - why else do people get hung up on Sagarin and BCS rankings?

But like Kasparov beating Deep Junior in '03 after losing to Deep Blue in '97 - computers (and formulas) are only by-products.

"That's why they play the game"

[mraynrand]

Keep tweaking the formulations FOSCO. Eventually, we can just let the computer tell us the final score and we won't even have to watch the game - or play it for that matter.

Tell me how you really feel :P

For analytical folks, this is just some fun. For gamblers, it could help organize a decision. Rankings have existed in nearly every form for every sport since time began - why else do people get hung up on Sagarin and BCS rankings?

But like Kasparov beating Deep Junior in '03 after losing to Deep Blue in '97 - computers (and formulas) are only by-products.

"That's why they play the game"

I was just being a tad oppositional, didn't mean to sound sardonic. Keep it up - it's part of the fun. I don't mind the computer rankings and analysis, in fact, I like a lot of the nubmer crunching. Still, I would prefer a playoff in college of the top 16 (determined in part by - a computer-assisted algorithm!) and I like the fact that no matter what the numbers say, a team can go out and kick the crap out of the favorite on Saturday or Sunday.

[woodbuck27]

What a fine effort Fosco33. Congratulations Packer fan. :)

The matchups that are interesting to me are:

1. Detroit @ washington given the Lions passing attack. All Packer fans eyes should be on this game.Are the Lions for real will become clearer at the end of this matchup.

2. Jacksonville @ KC. Is KC ready to bounce back after a big win last week is the question here. Will KC RB Larry Johnson show us game will decide that question.

3. San Diego @ Denver. Where are the 1-3 Chargers this season is one of the most intriguing question for all NFL fans. When will LT begin to dominate again. Any team traveling to Mile high Stadium is in for a very tough matchup but on paper to date this season it does appear to be the Broncos game to lose. Denver dominates the San Diego Chargers statistically.

I too like Denver next Sunday but they have dropped two straight Vs the Chargers three straight defeats. Today WR Javon Walker is still questionable for this 4 PM EST game.

4. Carolina @ New Orleans This one is very interesting. It appears as though David Carr will replace Delhomme for the panthers at QB. The mystery that is the saints remains upon us. Reggie Bush is projected as playing a bigger role in this matchup and will get the bulk of the carries.Will he shine as his entry in the NFL promised may be revealed in this game.

5. Arizona @ St. Louis Again on paper this one appears to be all Arizona, but enter Vet QB Gus Ferrotte in place of the injurered Marc Bulger. The Rams A. Boldin may be out for the Rams as well. For the Cardinals we will again see a lot of the wiley vet Kurt Warner who is feeling just fine now and ready to show his magic.

6. Chicago @ Green Bay Wow Wow Wow !! We really need this one but it will not be a cake walk if the Bear running game gets rolling. This is the game for our D to demonstrate a better attack Vs the run. I want to see our Linebackers attack the ball carrier more effectively going straight ahead. AJ Hawk is overdue for a huge game and to show us he is coming up to the level of play of the Bears Brian Urlacher. Nick Barnett has to continue his inspired play as our leader on D. We need more fr. our CB position and specifically at the Nickle spot.

This is the game we all love to see and congratulations to all Packerrats that are journeying to meet other Packerrats in the city of Lambeau Field and our beloved Packers. I wish yall a bang up great weekend and a Packer victory.

GO PACK GO !


See what Michael Silver, of Yahoo! Sports has to say regarding his choice of upsets this week:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AhD_CwxEKUK1NJi2t.A81J2N2bYF?slug=ms-thegameface100507&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

TAKE IT TO THE ATM

It's Upset Week II in the NFL:

The Chicago Bears will rise up and beat the Packers in Green Bay, with Brian Urlacher leading the way. …

The New York Jets will beat the New York Giants in the Battle of Jersey, providing more evidence that the AFC is the superior conference. …

The St. Louis Rams – yep, that's right – will get a boost from Frerotte and end the 0-16 talk with a win over the Cardinals.

A lot of upsets to date this season in the NFL. One must seriously consider which teams can turn that trick in Pickem leagues and if involved in NFL betting.

Good Luck this week for all of you that are there. :)

GO PACK GO !