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10-04-2007, 10:49 PM
Odds are against poor running teams
Packers undefeated despite meager ground attack
By Tom Pelissero
tpelisse@greenbaypressgazette.com
Nobody formed a cabal to upheave the NFC North’s backfields after last season, but a series of moves in March and April brought fresh legs to all four teams.
The Minnesota Vikings used the seventh overall pick in the NFL draft on Adrian Peterson.
The Detroit Lions sent two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Dre’ Bly to the Denver Broncos in a deal for Tatum Bell.
The Chicago Bears dealt 1,000-yard rusher Thomas Jones to the New York Jets and promoted former first-round pick Cedric Benson.
The Jets sent a second-round draft pick acquired in that deal to the Green Bay Packers, who used it to draft Brandon Jackson after Ahman Green left in free agency.
The results at the season’s quarter pole are mixed. The Vikings are well ahead of last year’s rushing pace, the Bears are well behind, and the Lions and Packers have the NFL’s two worst per-game rushing averages — yet are a combined 7-1.
“They’re passing football teams,” said Chicago coach Lovie Smith, whose team fell to 1-3 with a loss last week at Detroit (3-1) and visits the Packers (4-0) on Sunday. “That’s what they believe in, and as you can see by their records, so far, they’ve been able to win that way.”
How long can they keep it up?
Without indicting the methods behind either team’s hot start, statistics show staying out of the rushing cellar is almost essential to sustaining success through a 16-game season.
The last team to truly buck the theory was the 1986 New England Patriots, who finished 11-5 and made the playoffs despite averaging a league-low 85.8 rushing yards per game. The 1992 Indianapolis Colts missed the playoffs at 9-7 while gaining only 68.9 rushing yards per game, the NFL’s second-worst mark since the 1940s. Only one other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, the Vikings in 1978, has managed a winning record while bringing up the rear in rushing.
So, the Packers’ perfect September is remarkable, even without mentioning they’ve run for an almost unfathomable 54.2 yards per game — 20.3 less than 31st-ranked Detroit, and less than half their 110.5 average the last time they finished last in rushing, in 1975.
The Packers “look more like the old Dan Marino, put ’em in the shotgun, throw the ball around, quick-release kind of guys. In some strange way, (quarterback Brett Favre) has been sharper with this style of play than he’s been when he was throwing it only 20 or 25 times a game,” said former NFL receiver Cris Collinsworth, who joined fellow NBC analyst John Madden on a media conference call Thursday to discuss this week’s nationally televised game.
“Can it last? Can you make a championship run without a running game? I tend to doubt it.”
Per-carry average is an equally, if not more important, statistic, and the Packers are struggling there, as well, with an NFL-worst 2.7 yards per rush. Coach Mike McCarthy would prefer that number be closer to 4 yards in normal downs and distances and in excess of 3 yards in the red zone.
Jackson, who likely will miss his second consecutive game because of a shin strain, leads the Packers with 97 yards on 38 carries, or 2.6 yards per carry. Fellow rookie DeShawn Wynn has a 3.8-yard average largely because of his 38-yard run late in a win over the Giants on Sept. 16. The other two backs, Ryan Grant and Vernand Morency, have seven carries combined.
Yet it’s the defending NFC champion Bears who have fallen on the wrong side of an early power shift within the division, at least in part because their ground game has fallen off. Through four games, Chicago’s averages have plummeted from 119.9 rushing yards last season (15th in the NFL) to 82.8 (27th), and 30 minutes, 56 seconds of possession in 2006 (11th) to 27:18 (29th).
Unlike the Lions — offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s teams haven’t ranked higher than 24th in rushing since 2001, and Detroit is averaging a league-low 19.5 attempts per game — or the Packers, Chicago’s success is dependent largely on its ability to control the clock and protect its mediocre quarterbacks with a steady running game. Failing that, each game falls in the hands of Rex Grossman or Brian Griese, who haven’t proven themselves capable of winning through the air.
“They go hand in hand,” Smith said of the relation between his team’s rushing and passing woes. “We are a running football team, and we haven’t been able to run the football as well as we’d like. That has definitely hurt us, but once teams gang up on the run, you need to be able to hit them with the pass, too.”
The Packers continue to search for a way to do the opposite — open up the ground game when teams key on stopping the pass.
The Packers are passing on 69.3 of their offensive snaps — 178 passing plays to 79 running plays — and McCarthy and Favre have said there needs to be more balance for the Packers to keep winning. Chances are opponents will play more and more press coverage to combat the short passing game, in theory opening opportunities for the Packers’ running backs to take advantage.
History indicates they need to, and Sunday’s matchup with Chicago could be where it starts. The Bears’ defensive line has been depleted by injuries, and after watching Brett Favre post triple-digit passer ratings the past three weeks, it stands to reason Smith will gear his defense toward disrupting the passing game.
Then again, the Packers don’t have intact the 1-2 punch they expected throughout the offseason — Jackson and Morency.
“Certainly, there’s been obstacles to overcome in terms of continuity in the running game,” Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said. “That’s certainly been a little bit of an issue.
“Numbers are important. You want to set reasonable goals. But right now, we just need to play more physically and more fundamentally sound. It’s just that simple.”
There would seem to be little chance the mark for rushing futility would be broken. The 1940 Philadelphia Eagles averaged 27.1 yards per game on a record-low 9/10 of a yard per carry.
But that Eagles team went 1-10. A winning season — much less a championship run — for the Packers or Lions, if they leave their fate up in the air, would be historic.
“You can win games not running,” Madden said, “but you can’t win championships not running.”
Rob Demovsky contributed to this report.
Packers undefeated despite meager ground attack
By Tom Pelissero
tpelisse@greenbaypressgazette.com
Nobody formed a cabal to upheave the NFC North’s backfields after last season, but a series of moves in March and April brought fresh legs to all four teams.
The Minnesota Vikings used the seventh overall pick in the NFL draft on Adrian Peterson.
The Detroit Lions sent two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Dre’ Bly to the Denver Broncos in a deal for Tatum Bell.
The Chicago Bears dealt 1,000-yard rusher Thomas Jones to the New York Jets and promoted former first-round pick Cedric Benson.
The Jets sent a second-round draft pick acquired in that deal to the Green Bay Packers, who used it to draft Brandon Jackson after Ahman Green left in free agency.
The results at the season’s quarter pole are mixed. The Vikings are well ahead of last year’s rushing pace, the Bears are well behind, and the Lions and Packers have the NFL’s two worst per-game rushing averages — yet are a combined 7-1.
“They’re passing football teams,” said Chicago coach Lovie Smith, whose team fell to 1-3 with a loss last week at Detroit (3-1) and visits the Packers (4-0) on Sunday. “That’s what they believe in, and as you can see by their records, so far, they’ve been able to win that way.”
How long can they keep it up?
Without indicting the methods behind either team’s hot start, statistics show staying out of the rushing cellar is almost essential to sustaining success through a 16-game season.
The last team to truly buck the theory was the 1986 New England Patriots, who finished 11-5 and made the playoffs despite averaging a league-low 85.8 rushing yards per game. The 1992 Indianapolis Colts missed the playoffs at 9-7 while gaining only 68.9 rushing yards per game, the NFL’s second-worst mark since the 1940s. Only one other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, the Vikings in 1978, has managed a winning record while bringing up the rear in rushing.
So, the Packers’ perfect September is remarkable, even without mentioning they’ve run for an almost unfathomable 54.2 yards per game — 20.3 less than 31st-ranked Detroit, and less than half their 110.5 average the last time they finished last in rushing, in 1975.
The Packers “look more like the old Dan Marino, put ’em in the shotgun, throw the ball around, quick-release kind of guys. In some strange way, (quarterback Brett Favre) has been sharper with this style of play than he’s been when he was throwing it only 20 or 25 times a game,” said former NFL receiver Cris Collinsworth, who joined fellow NBC analyst John Madden on a media conference call Thursday to discuss this week’s nationally televised game.
“Can it last? Can you make a championship run without a running game? I tend to doubt it.”
Per-carry average is an equally, if not more important, statistic, and the Packers are struggling there, as well, with an NFL-worst 2.7 yards per rush. Coach Mike McCarthy would prefer that number be closer to 4 yards in normal downs and distances and in excess of 3 yards in the red zone.
Jackson, who likely will miss his second consecutive game because of a shin strain, leads the Packers with 97 yards on 38 carries, or 2.6 yards per carry. Fellow rookie DeShawn Wynn has a 3.8-yard average largely because of his 38-yard run late in a win over the Giants on Sept. 16. The other two backs, Ryan Grant and Vernand Morency, have seven carries combined.
Yet it’s the defending NFC champion Bears who have fallen on the wrong side of an early power shift within the division, at least in part because their ground game has fallen off. Through four games, Chicago’s averages have plummeted from 119.9 rushing yards last season (15th in the NFL) to 82.8 (27th), and 30 minutes, 56 seconds of possession in 2006 (11th) to 27:18 (29th).
Unlike the Lions — offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s teams haven’t ranked higher than 24th in rushing since 2001, and Detroit is averaging a league-low 19.5 attempts per game — or the Packers, Chicago’s success is dependent largely on its ability to control the clock and protect its mediocre quarterbacks with a steady running game. Failing that, each game falls in the hands of Rex Grossman or Brian Griese, who haven’t proven themselves capable of winning through the air.
“They go hand in hand,” Smith said of the relation between his team’s rushing and passing woes. “We are a running football team, and we haven’t been able to run the football as well as we’d like. That has definitely hurt us, but once teams gang up on the run, you need to be able to hit them with the pass, too.”
The Packers continue to search for a way to do the opposite — open up the ground game when teams key on stopping the pass.
The Packers are passing on 69.3 of their offensive snaps — 178 passing plays to 79 running plays — and McCarthy and Favre have said there needs to be more balance for the Packers to keep winning. Chances are opponents will play more and more press coverage to combat the short passing game, in theory opening opportunities for the Packers’ running backs to take advantage.
History indicates they need to, and Sunday’s matchup with Chicago could be where it starts. The Bears’ defensive line has been depleted by injuries, and after watching Brett Favre post triple-digit passer ratings the past three weeks, it stands to reason Smith will gear his defense toward disrupting the passing game.
Then again, the Packers don’t have intact the 1-2 punch they expected throughout the offseason — Jackson and Morency.
“Certainly, there’s been obstacles to overcome in terms of continuity in the running game,” Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said. “That’s certainly been a little bit of an issue.
“Numbers are important. You want to set reasonable goals. But right now, we just need to play more physically and more fundamentally sound. It’s just that simple.”
There would seem to be little chance the mark for rushing futility would be broken. The 1940 Philadelphia Eagles averaged 27.1 yards per game on a record-low 9/10 of a yard per carry.
But that Eagles team went 1-10. A winning season — much less a championship run — for the Packers or Lions, if they leave their fate up in the air, would be historic.
“You can win games not running,” Madden said, “but you can’t win championships not running.”
Rob Demovsky contributed to this report.