falco
10-07-2007, 10:22 AM
Pete Dougherty column: Packers better than 12-4 '01 team
By Pete Dougherty
After the Green Bay Packers finished off Minnesota 23-16 last week at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, Ryan Longwell likened this year's Packers to the team he played on in 2001.
The former Packers kicker, who signed with Minnesota in 2006, noted that like in 2001, this year's Packers are in the second season with a new coaching staff and coming off a season in which they won their last four games to finish the season at .500.
"If you remember in 2000 when (former coach) Mike Sherman got the job, we struggled, struggled, struggled, and then the last four games, we beat the whole division and came out the next season swinging," Longwell said. "I think that's what they've done. They got accustomed to a new coach and new staff and then (won) the last four games, and then they've come out of the blocks like they finished last year. There was a lot of momentum coming out of the way they finished last season."
The Packers in 2001 started the season 3-1, finished 12-4, won a home playoff game against San Francisco, then were blown out in the divisional round by St. Louis (45-17).
Which raises the question, which team is better, the 2001 Packers or the surprising 2007 team that is 4-0? And does the 2007 team have a brighter future?
Yes, it's early to make such a judgment, because so much could change over the final three-quarters of this season, in players' performances and injuries. But after going through both teams position group by position group, the conclusion is the 2007 Packers are better, and could be a more dangerous team in the playoffs.
The reasons they get the nod over a 12-4 team? One, Brett Favre, though not as athletic as six years ago, is playing elite football at the game's most important position; and two, their defense, though not as good statistically so far as the 2001 team, is much better overall and could keep this team in games against anyone in the NFL except perhaps New England and Indianapolis.
First, it must be noted the 2001 Packers were fortunate with injuries. They lost six starters for 23 games total, and only one of those was season-ending to a key player, safety LeRoy Butler. Butler broke his shoulder blade in the ninth game, and it ended his career. He was 33 at the time and in major decline — he had no interceptions and one sack before getting hurt — but was an exceptional leader and better than his replacement, Bhawoh Jue.
This year's Packers will need similar good fortune, especially with their key players. They've lost three starters for a total of six games — receiver Greg Jennings for two, halfback Vernand Morency for three, and halfback Brandon Jackson for one. Keeping Jennings healthy is crucial, because he's one of 10 or 11 players they can't afford to lose for an extended time.
Regardless, the 2007 Packers, even without a running game, seem to have a little magic the 2001 team lacked. The aging Favre is displaying some unusual talents and thriving in a short-passing game a week shy of his 38th birthday. An unheralded young coach, Mike McCarthy, who has adjusted his offense on the fly and is showing signs that despite not being polished, he might have the temperament and big-picture vision of a quality head coach. And a defense that lacks an elite player, but is solid across the board and built around cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson playing physical, bump-and-run coverage against anyone, anytime.
Remember, though, the edge over 2001 is small, and what happens the next two to four years depends on how long Favre can play well, and if Aaron Rodgers becomes a quality successor. Nonetheless, GM Ted Thompson's rebuilding approach, subject to much criticism the last two years, has yielded a young team with promise, though missing the hard-to-find pieces of an elite team.
Here's a position-by-position comparison of the 2001 and 2007 Packers. Keep in mind, the Packers won but never were a major Super Bowl threat in the following years. In 2002, they went 12-4 but lost the fourth-and-26 game at Philadelphia in the playoffs; then went 10-6 in 2003 and 2004, with early playoff exits; and then bottomed out in an injury-ruined 2005 season at 4-12.
Quarterback
Edge: Push.
Favre finished 2001 with a good passer rating (94.1 points) and threw 32 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. He turned 32 that year and had the athleticism to make stunning scrambles and throws.
However, six years later, he's been extraordinary. He's carrying an offense that can't run the ball, and has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions. It will be nearly impossible to maintain that interception rate — he's on pace to throw only eight for the year — but if he makes similar decisions for the rest of the season, there's just not much difference between the 2001 Favre and the 2007 Favre.
Running back
Edge: A major edge for the 2001 team.
Ahman Green was in his second season as the primary runner and rushed for 1,387 yards and an impressive 4.6-yard average in 2001. He was a big-play threat every time he touched the ball and had an 83-yard touchdown run.
If the Packers had that Green now, they'd be the NFC's favorite to win the Super Bowl. They have no one near his class. Morency is their best chance for upgrading the running game to mediocre, but will his patellar tendon hold up as his workload grows?
Offensive line
Edge: Another big edge for 2001.
This was the first season Chad Clifton, Mike Wahle, Mike Flanagan, Marco Rivera and Mark Tauscher were starters together. They got better the following years but gave up only 22 sacks in 2001.
The Packers' run blocking this season has been terrible, but the pass protection has been good since after the opener against Philadelphia. Perhaps McCarthy should de-emphasize the zone-blocking scheme, but when it comes to pass blocking, Clifton and Tauscher are good at the key tackle positions. Center Scott Wells has been the best lineman overall. Former second-round draft pick Daryn Colledge is not playing like he should after starting all last season as a rookie.
Receivers
Edge: Big advantage for 2007.
In 2001, the starters were temperamental Bill Schroeder and fast-declining Antonio Freeman. One-dimensional speed receiver Corey Bradford was the No. 3. Sherman ran a more vertical passing game — Schroeder averaged 17.3 yards a reception, and even the speed-deficient Freeman averaged 15.7 yards. But Green led the team is catches (62), which says all you need to know about the problems Schroeder and Freeman had getting open. No wonder Sherman traded up to draft Javon Walker in the first round of the 2002 draft.
This year, the Packers have three quality receivers in Donald Driver, Jennings and surprising rookie James Jones. Any of the three would have been the 2001 team's best receiver.
Tight ends
Edge: Push.
Bubba Franks was a little better in 2001, but this year's backup, Donald Lee, is better than 2007 backup Tyrone Davis.
Defensive line
Edge: A big edge for 2007.
It's hard to believe the 2001 Packers ranked 12th in the NFL in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points. It was a mirage based almost strictly on 39 take-aways, which tied for second-best in the NFL. The personnel wasn't as good as those numbers suggest, and when that defense didn't get turnovers, it couldn't be counted on for key stops for the next several years.
The 2001 line lacked quality and depth. It featured the declining Gilbert Brown, who was overweight with a chronic knee injury, and Vonnie Holliday, who was a solid player, but never more. Santana Dotson was in his final season and wasn't the same player coming back from severe injury (torn quadriceps tendon). Cletidus Hunt hadn't hit his big payday, so he was decent. The standout was Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, who had probably his best season (13½ sacks) while playing the part-time role he was meant for.
The 2007 defense (No. 19 in yards, tied for No. 9 in points) has more talent to build around with Aaron Kampman, who's better than anyone on the 2001 line and coming off a Pro Bowl; Ryan Pickett, who's not as talented as Brown but much healthier and more dependable; and Cullen Jenkins, a key core player who when healthy is better than anyone on the '01 line as well.
There's better depth also. Backup defensive tackles Corey Williams and Colin Cole are much better than 2001 backups Jim Flanigan and Rod Walker. Gbaja-Biamila is back in the pass-rush specialist role.
Linebackers
Edge: Big advantage 2007.
Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk and Brady Poppinga, or Bernardo Harris, Nate Wayne and Na'il Diggs? No contest, advantage 2007. Barnett is having a career year, and Hawk would be the best linebacker on the 2001 team even if he hasn't yet made the big plays expected of a player with his talent.
Defensive backs
Edge: Small advantage 2007.
Though Mike McKenzie and Tyrone Williams were a decent cornerback duo in 2001, they're not as good as Harris and Woodson. Nickel back Jarrett Bush has had his problems but blows away Tod McBride of 2001. At safety, Darren Sharper in 2001 was better than Nick Collins and Atari Bigby this year, but after Butler got hurt, it was a major dropoff to Jue.
Special teams
Edge: Push.
In 2001, Longwell consistently was good, but Bidwell was only OK, and return man Allen Rossum essentially had one good play, a 55-yard punt return for a touchdown that beat Tampa Bay. This year, rookie kicker Mason Crosby has shown an even demeanor and major leg talent. Punter Jon Ryan has been only OK, though with more potential than Bidwell. Tramon Williams is better on kickoff returns than Rossum; Charles Woodson is worse on punts.
Coaching
Edge: Small edge for 2007.
Sources close to Favre have said he had a deep respect for Sherman and liked offensive coordinator Tom Rossley personally, but it's clear he has more faith in McCarthy as an offensive coach. Sherman became GM in 2001, and that hurt his coaching. McCarthy is a more relaxed and open personality, though yields nothing in toughness as a coach, which bodes well for his future. He's still in his honeymoon, though, so time will tell.
Anybody want to pick out the horrible reporting?
By Pete Dougherty
After the Green Bay Packers finished off Minnesota 23-16 last week at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, Ryan Longwell likened this year's Packers to the team he played on in 2001.
The former Packers kicker, who signed with Minnesota in 2006, noted that like in 2001, this year's Packers are in the second season with a new coaching staff and coming off a season in which they won their last four games to finish the season at .500.
"If you remember in 2000 when (former coach) Mike Sherman got the job, we struggled, struggled, struggled, and then the last four games, we beat the whole division and came out the next season swinging," Longwell said. "I think that's what they've done. They got accustomed to a new coach and new staff and then (won) the last four games, and then they've come out of the blocks like they finished last year. There was a lot of momentum coming out of the way they finished last season."
The Packers in 2001 started the season 3-1, finished 12-4, won a home playoff game against San Francisco, then were blown out in the divisional round by St. Louis (45-17).
Which raises the question, which team is better, the 2001 Packers or the surprising 2007 team that is 4-0? And does the 2007 team have a brighter future?
Yes, it's early to make such a judgment, because so much could change over the final three-quarters of this season, in players' performances and injuries. But after going through both teams position group by position group, the conclusion is the 2007 Packers are better, and could be a more dangerous team in the playoffs.
The reasons they get the nod over a 12-4 team? One, Brett Favre, though not as athletic as six years ago, is playing elite football at the game's most important position; and two, their defense, though not as good statistically so far as the 2001 team, is much better overall and could keep this team in games against anyone in the NFL except perhaps New England and Indianapolis.
First, it must be noted the 2001 Packers were fortunate with injuries. They lost six starters for 23 games total, and only one of those was season-ending to a key player, safety LeRoy Butler. Butler broke his shoulder blade in the ninth game, and it ended his career. He was 33 at the time and in major decline — he had no interceptions and one sack before getting hurt — but was an exceptional leader and better than his replacement, Bhawoh Jue.
This year's Packers will need similar good fortune, especially with their key players. They've lost three starters for a total of six games — receiver Greg Jennings for two, halfback Vernand Morency for three, and halfback Brandon Jackson for one. Keeping Jennings healthy is crucial, because he's one of 10 or 11 players they can't afford to lose for an extended time.
Regardless, the 2007 Packers, even without a running game, seem to have a little magic the 2001 team lacked. The aging Favre is displaying some unusual talents and thriving in a short-passing game a week shy of his 38th birthday. An unheralded young coach, Mike McCarthy, who has adjusted his offense on the fly and is showing signs that despite not being polished, he might have the temperament and big-picture vision of a quality head coach. And a defense that lacks an elite player, but is solid across the board and built around cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson playing physical, bump-and-run coverage against anyone, anytime.
Remember, though, the edge over 2001 is small, and what happens the next two to four years depends on how long Favre can play well, and if Aaron Rodgers becomes a quality successor. Nonetheless, GM Ted Thompson's rebuilding approach, subject to much criticism the last two years, has yielded a young team with promise, though missing the hard-to-find pieces of an elite team.
Here's a position-by-position comparison of the 2001 and 2007 Packers. Keep in mind, the Packers won but never were a major Super Bowl threat in the following years. In 2002, they went 12-4 but lost the fourth-and-26 game at Philadelphia in the playoffs; then went 10-6 in 2003 and 2004, with early playoff exits; and then bottomed out in an injury-ruined 2005 season at 4-12.
Quarterback
Edge: Push.
Favre finished 2001 with a good passer rating (94.1 points) and threw 32 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. He turned 32 that year and had the athleticism to make stunning scrambles and throws.
However, six years later, he's been extraordinary. He's carrying an offense that can't run the ball, and has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions. It will be nearly impossible to maintain that interception rate — he's on pace to throw only eight for the year — but if he makes similar decisions for the rest of the season, there's just not much difference between the 2001 Favre and the 2007 Favre.
Running back
Edge: A major edge for the 2001 team.
Ahman Green was in his second season as the primary runner and rushed for 1,387 yards and an impressive 4.6-yard average in 2001. He was a big-play threat every time he touched the ball and had an 83-yard touchdown run.
If the Packers had that Green now, they'd be the NFC's favorite to win the Super Bowl. They have no one near his class. Morency is their best chance for upgrading the running game to mediocre, but will his patellar tendon hold up as his workload grows?
Offensive line
Edge: Another big edge for 2001.
This was the first season Chad Clifton, Mike Wahle, Mike Flanagan, Marco Rivera and Mark Tauscher were starters together. They got better the following years but gave up only 22 sacks in 2001.
The Packers' run blocking this season has been terrible, but the pass protection has been good since after the opener against Philadelphia. Perhaps McCarthy should de-emphasize the zone-blocking scheme, but when it comes to pass blocking, Clifton and Tauscher are good at the key tackle positions. Center Scott Wells has been the best lineman overall. Former second-round draft pick Daryn Colledge is not playing like he should after starting all last season as a rookie.
Receivers
Edge: Big advantage for 2007.
In 2001, the starters were temperamental Bill Schroeder and fast-declining Antonio Freeman. One-dimensional speed receiver Corey Bradford was the No. 3. Sherman ran a more vertical passing game — Schroeder averaged 17.3 yards a reception, and even the speed-deficient Freeman averaged 15.7 yards. But Green led the team is catches (62), which says all you need to know about the problems Schroeder and Freeman had getting open. No wonder Sherman traded up to draft Javon Walker in the first round of the 2002 draft.
This year, the Packers have three quality receivers in Donald Driver, Jennings and surprising rookie James Jones. Any of the three would have been the 2001 team's best receiver.
Tight ends
Edge: Push.
Bubba Franks was a little better in 2001, but this year's backup, Donald Lee, is better than 2007 backup Tyrone Davis.
Defensive line
Edge: A big edge for 2007.
It's hard to believe the 2001 Packers ranked 12th in the NFL in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points. It was a mirage based almost strictly on 39 take-aways, which tied for second-best in the NFL. The personnel wasn't as good as those numbers suggest, and when that defense didn't get turnovers, it couldn't be counted on for key stops for the next several years.
The 2001 line lacked quality and depth. It featured the declining Gilbert Brown, who was overweight with a chronic knee injury, and Vonnie Holliday, who was a solid player, but never more. Santana Dotson was in his final season and wasn't the same player coming back from severe injury (torn quadriceps tendon). Cletidus Hunt hadn't hit his big payday, so he was decent. The standout was Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, who had probably his best season (13½ sacks) while playing the part-time role he was meant for.
The 2007 defense (No. 19 in yards, tied for No. 9 in points) has more talent to build around with Aaron Kampman, who's better than anyone on the 2001 line and coming off a Pro Bowl; Ryan Pickett, who's not as talented as Brown but much healthier and more dependable; and Cullen Jenkins, a key core player who when healthy is better than anyone on the '01 line as well.
There's better depth also. Backup defensive tackles Corey Williams and Colin Cole are much better than 2001 backups Jim Flanigan and Rod Walker. Gbaja-Biamila is back in the pass-rush specialist role.
Linebackers
Edge: Big advantage 2007.
Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk and Brady Poppinga, or Bernardo Harris, Nate Wayne and Na'il Diggs? No contest, advantage 2007. Barnett is having a career year, and Hawk would be the best linebacker on the 2001 team even if he hasn't yet made the big plays expected of a player with his talent.
Defensive backs
Edge: Small advantage 2007.
Though Mike McKenzie and Tyrone Williams were a decent cornerback duo in 2001, they're not as good as Harris and Woodson. Nickel back Jarrett Bush has had his problems but blows away Tod McBride of 2001. At safety, Darren Sharper in 2001 was better than Nick Collins and Atari Bigby this year, but after Butler got hurt, it was a major dropoff to Jue.
Special teams
Edge: Push.
In 2001, Longwell consistently was good, but Bidwell was only OK, and return man Allen Rossum essentially had one good play, a 55-yard punt return for a touchdown that beat Tampa Bay. This year, rookie kicker Mason Crosby has shown an even demeanor and major leg talent. Punter Jon Ryan has been only OK, though with more potential than Bidwell. Tramon Williams is better on kickoff returns than Rossum; Charles Woodson is worse on punts.
Coaching
Edge: Small edge for 2007.
Sources close to Favre have said he had a deep respect for Sherman and liked offensive coordinator Tom Rossley personally, but it's clear he has more faith in McCarthy as an offensive coach. Sherman became GM in 2001, and that hurt his coaching. McCarthy is a more relaxed and open personality, though yields nothing in toughness as a coach, which bodes well for his future. He's still in his honeymoon, though, so time will tell.
Anybody want to pick out the horrible reporting?