The Second Half of the Season

[OS PA]

Looking at the Packers record may be the best thing to do as an optimist. 5-1 seems great, but the record is a bit deceiving. Under the surface, the Packers are a struggling team. They don't have a rushing attack, their line is not playing up to snuff, and a team that has been relatively healthy is an injury or two away from being in the dog pound of the NFL.

Here's a look at the Packers opponents thus far

Philadelphia Eagles: 2 - 4 Record, Result W 16 - 13
New York Giants: 5 - 2 Record, Result W 35 - 13
San Diego Chargers: 3 - 3 Record, Result W 31 - 24
Minnesota Vikings: 2 - 4 Record, Result W 23 - 16
Chicago Bears: 3 - 4 Record, Result L 20 - 27
Washington Redskins: 4 - 2 Record, Result W 17 - 14

Combined Record: 19 - 19 or .500 W/L
Total Points Scored 142
Total Points Allowed 107

The Packers Offense through the first seven weeks looks like this

Rushing: Ranked 32nd, 65.7 YPG, 5 TD, 3.3 YPC
Passing: Ranked 3rd, 273.7 YPG, 9 TD, 6.9 YPC
Overall: Ranked 11th, 339.3 YPG, 23.7 PPG, 3rd Down 41% Successful, TO Ratio 0

The Packers Running attack has produced less yards than nineteen Backs in the league. They are near the middle of the pack overall, and in looking towards the future if they are unable to run the ball they will begin losing the close games.

The passing game was on track through the first four games, but seems to have faltered in the last two weeks.
Favre through the first four weeks: 112/170, 65% Comp PCT, 8 TD, 2 Int
Favre through the last two weeks: 48/77, 62% Comp PCT, 1 TD, 4 Int

If Favre continues to play with reckless abandon the Packers are in for a long second half of the season offensively.

Keys to success on offense:
1. Improved Offensive Line Play
2. Favre Returning to Form
3. More Run Plays

Bright Spots on Offense
1. Donald Lee's emergence
2. Koren Robinson's Return
3. Favre's Potential
4. Improved Pass Blocking


On Defense the Packers have been playing average.

Rushing: Ranked 11th, 100.2 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 2 TD
Passing: Ranked 22nd, 223.7 YPG, 6.8 YPC, 56.7% Comp PCT, 9 TD, 6 INT
Overall: Ranked 15th, 323 YPG, 5.1 YPP, 34% 3rd Down PCT, 17.8 PPG, 42 Penalties, 30:10 ToP

With how well this defense looked during the preseason it's a surprise how mediocre they are playing. With two of the elite cornerbacks in the league their passing defense has been less than stellar. The talk of the summer was of the much improved defensive line, yet they only have 15 sacks, which is good enough to have them at a three way tie for 14th best in the league. Their run defense is stout enough to keep the time of possession close to even, but teams are carving them up like a Turkey on Thanksgiving through the air.

In order for this team to see success in the latter half the season, they need to buckle down on three things. The tight end, protect the flats better, and have better coverage from the safety position.

Keys to Success on Defense:
1. New Tight End Cover Schemes
2. Improved Safety Play
3. New Nickleback
4. More Line Stunts
5. More Creative Blitzes

Bright Spots on Defense
1. Defensive Line in the Fourth Quarter
2. Nick Barnett's Pro-Bowl Year
3. Atari Bigby's Emergence


The Rest of the Year

Denver Broncos:
Record 3 - 3
Passing Offense: Ranked 11th, 227 YPG, 7.8 AVG, 7 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 9th, 130.7 YPG, 4.7 AVG, 3 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 2nd, 164.7 YPG, 7.8 AVG, 11 TD Allowed, 6 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 32nd, 176.2 YPG, 5.1 AVG, 6 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Establishing the run in order to set up the pass

If the Packers are unable to run against the worst run defense in the league, they will not win this game.


Kansas City Chiefs:
Record 4 - 3
Passing Offense: Ranked 19th, 211.6 YPG, 6.9 AVG, 7 TD, 7 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 29th, 82.1 YPG, 3.3 AVG, 2 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 9th, 197.1 YPG, 6.7 AVG, 6 TD Allowed, 8 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 17th, 108.7 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 3 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Stopping Larry Johnson and winning the field position battle

This game will be all about possession and field position. Kansas City's pass defense is strong, which means the Packers will have trouble moving the ball, and with the Chiefs strong legged kicker they could lose this game on his leg.


Minnesota Vikings:
Record 2 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 30th, 151.8 YPG, 5.8 AVG, 3 TD, 6 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 1st, 164.7 YPG, 5.5 AVG, 6 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 32nd, 282.5 YPG, 7.3 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 7 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 4th, 76.5 YPG, 3.0 AVG, 1 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Stopping Adrian Peterson and winning the turnover battle

Although Minnesota's pass defense is porous they have a few ball hawks, which could spell disaster for the Packers offense. If they lose the turnover battle Adrian Peterson is good enough to win this game for the Vikings. Don't expect Childress to give Favre and company another gift by taking the ball out of Peterson's hands again.


Carolina Panthers:
Record 4 - 2
Passing Offense: Ranked 27th, 184.8 YPG, 6.6 AVG, 11 TD, 3 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 8th, 132.6 YPG, 4.6 AVG, 2 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 21st, 221.2 YPG, 6.4 AVG, 5 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 18th, 108.7 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 3 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Stopping Steve Smith

This game is simple, if the Packers stop Steve Smith they stop the Carolina Panthers. Although the Panthers are a highly productive running team they don't produce many points on the ground. Their game plan is efficiency, and by limiting their most efficient player, you limit their offense.


Detroit Lions:
Record 4 - 2
Passing Offense: Ranked 7th, 243 YPG, 7.7 AVG, 9 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 27th, 85.5 YPG, 4.2 AVG, 5 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 30th, 269.3 YPG, 7.6 AVG, 12 TD Allowed, 9 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 19th, 116.5 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 7 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Limit Lions passing attack

The teams that have done best against the Detroit Lions are the teams that have scored early and scored often. The Lions have one of the best passing offenses in the league, but to go along with that they have a terrible running offense and a terrible defense. If you limit the damage the Lions do through the air you win the game.

Dallas Cowboys:
Record 5 - 1
Passing Offense: Ranked 4th, 271.6 YPG, 8.3 AVG, 16 TD, 9 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 10th, 130.4 YPG, 4.8 AVG, 8 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 15th, 208.9 YPG, 6.5 AVG, 11 TD Allowed, 10 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 7th, 87 YPG, 3.6 AVG, 3 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Rattle Tony Romo, Tampa 2

The Buffalo Bills are a terrible team, yet they caused Tony Romo to throw five interceptions. Any other team would have blown out the Cowboys with that turnover ratio. The Bills were able to pressure Romo just enough to have him rush his throws, and it spelled disaster for him. The Cowboys have multiple weapons, but the two to fear are Terrel Owens and Jason Whitten. In order to stop these two, the Packers need to play a converted Tampa 2 defense. Play the safeties deep, and have Nick Barnett spy the QB from the middle of the field.


Oakland Raiders:
Record 2 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 29th, 171.8 YPG, 7.1 AVG, 8 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 4th, 145.8 YPG, 4.5 AVG, 5 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 12th, 204.2 YPG, 7.0 AVG, 6 TD Allowed, 10 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 29th, 141.7 YPG, 5.2 AVG, 9 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Stop the run

This game is all about the run. Oakland's rushing attack is all they have going for them on offense, and if the Packers are able to keep the Raiders running backs out of the endzone they win this game easily.


St. Louis Rams:
Record 0 - 7
Passing Offense: Ranked 25th, 192 YPG, 5.8 AVG, 5 TD, 15 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 28th, 82.6 YPG, 3.5 AVG, 0 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 10th, 201.1 YPG, 7.2 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 24th, 129.6 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 9 TD Allowed

Keys to the game: Win the game

This is not a classic trap game nor is it a difficult one. All the Packers have to do is not lose the game.


Chicago Bears:
Record 3 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 13th, 220.6 YPG, 6.7 AVG, 9 TD, 12 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 30th, 81.1 YPG, 3.2 AVG, 2 TD

Passing Defense: Ranked 23rd, 224.9 YPG, 7.7 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 26th, 132.6 YPG, 4.6 AVG, 7 TD Allowed

Key to the game: Pass, Pass, Pass

The Chicago Bears are a rattled team, they've gone from a running team with a world class defense, to a passing team with a terrible defense. The Packers let the first game of the series slip by in the second half, because of poor play calling and decision making. If the Packers don't want to repeat the disappointment they need to stick with what works for them. Short passes.



Looking at the final ten games of the schedule it is easy to see the games the Packers should win, the games the Packers should be competitive in, and the games the Packers will struggle in. With this said, even the games that appear to be a struggle are winnable. As in previous years, where there appeared to be unwinnable games on the schedule, this year the Packers look to have a chance in every game.

Games the Packers should win: Detroit Lions X2, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Games the Packers should compete in: Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers
Games the Packers should struggle in: Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos

Statistically the Packers are favored in seven of their final ten games, and in the other three they are in a distant second. All in all, this should be an exciting season.

Finally, although the Packers have played like a middle of the road team thus far, their record sits at 5 - 1. That proves one thing. These Green Bay Packers know how to win.

[hurleyfan]

Well done OS!

Let's hope the Packers continue to win ugly.. There's no reason not to be optimistic in the weak NFC (HEALTH will be key!)

[RashanGary]

Yes, nice work!!

[MadtownPacker]

Thats some good stuff OS. I would hate to see them blow this nice start. Therea int anyone in the NFC who is truly dominant so hopefully the Packers stay hungry. I think M3 will make sure that happens.

[Bossman641]

I really think the D Line is going to step up from here on out. I know he hasn't had any big injuries, but Jenkins has been fighting through little injuries week after week. Who would have thought after his preseason that he would have 0 sacks through the first 5 games and only 1 total in 6 games.

I thought I remembered reading that he was absolutely thrilled to have the bye week. I expect him to be a beast again, and our sacks to go way up.

[cheesner]

Nice analysis.

Overall, I see the Packers as a team on the rise. The Lions are also on the rise. These are the only two teams who I believe have not yet played their best football. Some of the games that appear to be struggles later, may end up being good games for the Packers.

The other teams we will face have either hit their max potential, Cowboys and Vikings, or are teams on the decline, Bears and Broncos. Conversely, these teams have already played their best football.

[Carolina_Packer]

On Defense the Packers have been playing average.

Rushing: Ranked 11th, 100.2 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 2 TD
Passing: Ranked 22nd, 223.7 YPG, 6.8 YPC, 56.7% Comp PCT, 9 TD, 6 INT
Overall: Ranked 15th, 323 YPG, 5.1 YPP, 34% 3rd Down PCT, 17.8 PPG, 42 Penalties, 30:10 ToP

With how well this defense looked during the preseason it's a surprise how mediocre they are playing. With two of the elite cornerbacks in the league their passing defense has been less than stellar. The talk of the summer was of the much improved defensive line, yet they only have 15 sacks, which is good enough to have them at a three way tie for 14th best in the league. Their run defense is stout enough to keep the time of possession close to even, but teams are carving them up like a Turkey on Thanksgiving through the air.

In order for this team to see success in the latter half the season, they need to buckle down on three things. The tight end, protect the flats better, and have better coverage from the safety position.

Keys to Success on Defense:
1. New Tight End Cover Schemes
2. Improved Safety Play
3. New Nickleback
4. More Line Stunts
5. More Creative Blitzes

Bright Spots on Defense
1. Defensive Line in the Fourth Quarter
2. Nick Barnett's Pro-Bowl Year
3. Atari Bigby's Emergence

I disagree that the defense is playing average. Statistically, they may not be dominant, but, they seem to rise to the occasion when it matters most, and that shows heart and determination. They were a big part of the Washington victory. They did not lose the Chicago game for us. The Bears scored 27, however, there was only one TD given up on a long drive. One TD was on Favre for the short field he gave the D to defend after the INT. The other TD was after the questionable flag on their FG attempt that gave them a first down. Granted, that last TD was a killer of a TD to give up, but it was the only one given up all game to a significant drive by the Bears offense. The Bears loss was mostly on turnovers, penalties and kicking away from Hester and giving short fields, thus pinning us deep when our D would force their O to punt.

Good analysis otherwise. Nice breakdowns.

[OS PA]

On Defense the Packers have been playing average.

Rushing: Ranked 11th, 100.2 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 2 TD
Passing: Ranked 22nd, 223.7 YPG, 6.8 YPC, 56.7% Comp PCT, 9 TD, 6 INT
Overall: Ranked 15th, 323 YPG, 5.1 YPP, 34% 3rd Down PCT, 17.8 PPG, 42 Penalties, 30:10 ToP

With how well this defense looked during the preseason it's a surprise how mediocre they are playing. With two of the elite cornerbacks in the league their passing defense has been less than stellar. The talk of the summer was of the much improved defensive line, yet they only have 15 sacks, which is good enough to have them at a three way tie for 14th best in the league. Their run defense is stout enough to keep the time of possession close to even, but teams are carving them up like a Turkey on Thanksgiving through the air.

In order for this team to see success in the latter half the season, they need to buckle down on three things. The tight end, protect the flats better, and have better coverage from the safety position.

Keys to Success on Defense:
1. New Tight End Cover Schemes
2. Improved Safety Play
3. New Nickleback
4. More Line Stunts
5. More Creative Blitzes

Bright Spots on Defense
1. Defensive Line in the Fourth Quarter
2. Nick Barnett's Pro-Bowl Year
3. Atari Bigby's Emergence

I disagree that the defense is playing average. Statistically, they may not be dominant, but, they seem to rise to the occasion when it matters most, and that shows heart and determination. They were a big part of the Washington victory. They did not lose the Chicago game for us. The Bears scored 27, however, there was only one TD given up on a long drive. One TD was on Favre for the short field he gave the D to defend after the INT. The other TD was after the questionable flag on their FG attempt that gave them a first down. Granted, that last TD was a killer of a TD to give up, but it was the only one given up all game to a significant drive by the Bears offense. The Bears loss was mostly on turnovers, penalties and kicking away from Hester and giving short fields, thus pinning us deep when our D would force their O to punt.

Good analysis otherwise. Nice breakdowns.

From the beginning of the pre-season, a lot of us thought that the Pack would be a top 10, maybe even a top 5 defense. When I say they are playing average, that is why. I don't feel like they are playing up to their potential. There have been dropped interceptions, converted third and longs, and multiple missed assignments. Granted, the offenses we've been playing have had a fair amount of firepower, but they just aren't as good as they should be. However, there is one really important statistic, that will be outstanding if it keeps through the rest of the year. The fact that they've kept opponents to a 34% 3rd down completion rate is fantastic. I just wish they'd learn to stop the third and long situations more effectively.

[Patler]

The passing game has not been as ineffective the last two weeks as it might look. If you consider the TD throw to Bubba which the league admitted should have counted, and the TD throw completed to Jones called back on the Tauscher penalty that was a ticky-tack call to begin with and irrelevant to the play to end with, all of a sudden the stats don't look nearly so bad.

Throw in the two Jones fumbles, a couple missed FGs and it shows the offense has short-circuited itself, but was not ineffective. They just left too many points on the field the last two games. The key will be if this becomes the norm for this young team.

[Merlin]

Very good analysis. For you 3T lovers, why isn't he part of the equation? Oh, that's right. He hired the coach and brought in the players. That's all it takes to win games, I forget.

I have this jigsaw puzzle and I dumped it on the ground. When you put it together, make sure I get all the credit because it was after all my puzzle to begin with.

[MadtownPacker]

The defense seems to play better in the 4th quarter. It has allowed the offense to stay in games until the end. I really dont have a problem with the D. They rise to the occasion when needed and have come through with big stops on 3rd down and turnovers all season. The defense is fine, the offense is what has stalled the last two weeks. I think that unmerciful DL rotation wears OLs out by the 4th and they seem to get a lot of pressure late in the game. This team has a shot every Sunday because of that. Even with Favre having a off game they won. How often has that happened the last few years?

[Partial]

Very good analysis. For you 3T lovers, why isn't he part of the equation? Oh, that's right. He hired the coach and brought in the players. That's all it takes to win games, I forget.

I have this jigsaw puzzle and I dumped it on the ground. When you put it together, make sure I get all the credit because it was after all my puzzle to begin with.

Because he doesn't do a whole lot from his suite during a game? What the hell does that even mean?!? Is he expected to scour other teams garbage and hope to find a decent player? I think consistency with your guys is far more important at this stage of the game.

[MJZiggy]

I have this jigsaw puzzle and I dumped it on the ground. When you put it together, make sure I get all the credit because it was after all my puzzle to begin with.

Your analogy is a little off. In this one, the jigsaw puzzle is the team (players and coaches), you are the owner (in this case Bob Harlan) and the genius who put the puzzle together is....c'mon, you know it...