OS PA
10-24-2007, 02:34 AM
Looking at the Packers record may be the best thing to do as an optimist. 5-1 seems great, but the record is a bit deceiving. Under the surface, the Packers are a struggling team. They don't have a rushing attack, their line is not playing up to snuff, and a team that has been relatively healthy is an injury or two away from being in the dog pound of the NFL.
Here's a look at the Packers opponents thus far
Philadelphia Eagles: 2 - 4 Record, Result W 16 - 13
New York Giants: 5 - 2 Record, Result W 35 - 13
San Diego Chargers: 3 - 3 Record, Result W 31 - 24
Minnesota Vikings: 2 - 4 Record, Result W 23 - 16
Chicago Bears: 3 - 4 Record, Result L 20 - 27
Washington Redskins: 4 - 2 Record, Result W 17 - 14
Combined Record: 19 - 19 or .500 W/L
Total Points Scored 142
Total Points Allowed 107
The Packers Offense through the first seven weeks looks like this
Rushing: Ranked 32nd, 65.7 YPG, 5 TD, 3.3 YPC
Passing: Ranked 3rd, 273.7 YPG, 9 TD, 6.9 YPC
Overall: Ranked 11th, 339.3 YPG, 23.7 PPG, 3rd Down 41% Successful, TO Ratio 0
The Packers Running attack has produced less yards than nineteen Backs in the league. They are near the middle of the pack overall, and in looking towards the future if they are unable to run the ball they will begin losing the close games.
The passing game was on track through the first four games, but seems to have faltered in the last two weeks.
Favre through the first four weeks: 112/170, 65% Comp PCT, 8 TD, 2 Int
Favre through the last two weeks: 48/77, 62% Comp PCT, 1 TD, 4 Int
If Favre continues to play with reckless abandon the Packers are in for a long second half of the season offensively.
Keys to success on offense:
1. Improved Offensive Line Play
2. Favre Returning to Form
3. More Run Plays
Bright Spots on Offense
1. Donald Lee's emergence
2. Koren Robinson's Return
3. Favre's Potential
4. Improved Pass Blocking
On Defense the Packers have been playing average.
Rushing: Ranked 11th, 100.2 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 2 TD
Passing: Ranked 22nd, 223.7 YPG, 6.8 YPC, 56.7% Comp PCT, 9 TD, 6 INT
Overall: Ranked 15th, 323 YPG, 5.1 YPP, 34% 3rd Down PCT, 17.8 PPG, 42 Penalties, 30:10 ToP
With how well this defense looked during the preseason it's a surprise how mediocre they are playing. With two of the elite cornerbacks in the league their passing defense has been less than stellar. The talk of the summer was of the much improved defensive line, yet they only have 15 sacks, which is good enough to have them at a three way tie for 14th best in the league. Their run defense is stout enough to keep the time of possession close to even, but teams are carving them up like a Turkey on Thanksgiving through the air.
In order for this team to see success in the latter half the season, they need to buckle down on three things. The tight end, protect the flats better, and have better coverage from the safety position.
Keys to Success on Defense:
1. New Tight End Cover Schemes
2. Improved Safety Play
3. New Nickleback
4. More Line Stunts
5. More Creative Blitzes
Bright Spots on Defense
1. Defensive Line in the Fourth Quarter
2. Nick Barnett's Pro-Bowl Year
3. Atari Bigby's Emergence
The Rest of the Year
Denver Broncos:
Record 3 - 3
Passing Offense: Ranked 11th, 227 YPG, 7.8 AVG, 7 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 9th, 130.7 YPG, 4.7 AVG, 3 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 2nd, 164.7 YPG, 7.8 AVG, 11 TD Allowed, 6 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 32nd, 176.2 YPG, 5.1 AVG, 6 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Establishing the run in order to set up the pass
If the Packers are unable to run against the worst run defense in the league, they will not win this game.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Record 4 - 3
Passing Offense: Ranked 19th, 211.6 YPG, 6.9 AVG, 7 TD, 7 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 29th, 82.1 YPG, 3.3 AVG, 2 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 9th, 197.1 YPG, 6.7 AVG, 6 TD Allowed, 8 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 17th, 108.7 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 3 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stopping Larry Johnson and winning the field position battle
This game will be all about possession and field position. Kansas City's pass defense is strong, which means the Packers will have trouble moving the ball, and with the Chiefs strong legged kicker they could lose this game on his leg.
Minnesota Vikings:
Record 2 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 30th, 151.8 YPG, 5.8 AVG, 3 TD, 6 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 1st, 164.7 YPG, 5.5 AVG, 6 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 32nd, 282.5 YPG, 7.3 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 7 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 4th, 76.5 YPG, 3.0 AVG, 1 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stopping Adrian Peterson and winning the turnover battle
Although Minnesota's pass defense is porous they have a few ball hawks, which could spell disaster for the Packers offense. If they lose the turnover battle Adrian Peterson is good enough to win this game for the Vikings. Don't expect Childress to give Favre and company another gift by taking the ball out of Peterson's hands again.
Carolina Panthers:
Record 4 - 2
Passing Offense: Ranked 27th, 184.8 YPG, 6.6 AVG, 11 TD, 3 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 8th, 132.6 YPG, 4.6 AVG, 2 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 21st, 221.2 YPG, 6.4 AVG, 5 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 18th, 108.7 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 3 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stopping Steve Smith
This game is simple, if the Packers stop Steve Smith they stop the Carolina Panthers. Although the Panthers are a highly productive running team they don't produce many points on the ground. Their game plan is efficiency, and by limiting their most efficient player, you limit their offense.
Detroit Lions:
Record 4 - 2
Passing Offense: Ranked 7th, 243 YPG, 7.7 AVG, 9 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 27th, 85.5 YPG, 4.2 AVG, 5 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 30th, 269.3 YPG, 7.6 AVG, 12 TD Allowed, 9 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 19th, 116.5 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 7 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Limit Lions passing attack
The teams that have done best against the Detroit Lions are the teams that have scored early and scored often. The Lions have one of the best passing offenses in the league, but to go along with that they have a terrible running offense and a terrible defense. If you limit the damage the Lions do through the air you win the game.
Dallas Cowboys:
Record 5 - 1
Passing Offense: Ranked 4th, 271.6 YPG, 8.3 AVG, 16 TD, 9 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 10th, 130.4 YPG, 4.8 AVG, 8 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 15th, 208.9 YPG, 6.5 AVG, 11 TD Allowed, 10 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 7th, 87 YPG, 3.6 AVG, 3 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Rattle Tony Romo, Tampa 2
The Buffalo Bills are a terrible team, yet they caused Tony Romo to throw five interceptions. Any other team would have blown out the Cowboys with that turnover ratio. The Bills were able to pressure Romo just enough to have him rush his throws, and it spelled disaster for him. The Cowboys have multiple weapons, but the two to fear are Terrel Owens and Jason Whitten. In order to stop these two, the Packers need to play a converted Tampa 2 defense. Play the safeties deep, and have Nick Barnett spy the QB from the middle of the field.
Oakland Raiders:
Record 2 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 29th, 171.8 YPG, 7.1 AVG, 8 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 4th, 145.8 YPG, 4.5 AVG, 5 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 12th, 204.2 YPG, 7.0 AVG, 6 TD Allowed, 10 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 29th, 141.7 YPG, 5.2 AVG, 9 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stop the run
This game is all about the run. Oakland's rushing attack is all they have going for them on offense, and if the Packers are able to keep the Raiders running backs out of the endzone they win this game easily.
St. Louis Rams:
Record 0 - 7
Passing Offense: Ranked 25th, 192 YPG, 5.8 AVG, 5 TD, 15 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 28th, 82.6 YPG, 3.5 AVG, 0 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 10th, 201.1 YPG, 7.2 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 24th, 129.6 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 9 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Win the game
This is not a classic trap game nor is it a difficult one. All the Packers have to do is not lose the game.
Chicago Bears:
Record 3 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 13th, 220.6 YPG, 6.7 AVG, 9 TD, 12 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 30th, 81.1 YPG, 3.2 AVG, 2 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 23rd, 224.9 YPG, 7.7 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 26th, 132.6 YPG, 4.6 AVG, 7 TD Allowed
Key to the game: Pass, Pass, Pass
The Chicago Bears are a rattled team, they've gone from a running team with a world class defense, to a passing team with a terrible defense. The Packers let the first game of the series slip by in the second half, because of poor play calling and decision making. If the Packers don't want to repeat the disappointment they need to stick with what works for them. Short passes.
Looking at the final ten games of the schedule it is easy to see the games the Packers should win, the games the Packers should be competitive in, and the games the Packers will struggle in. With this said, even the games that appear to be a struggle are winnable. As in previous years, where there appeared to be unwinnable games on the schedule, this year the Packers look to have a chance in every game.
Games the Packers should win: Detroit Lions X2, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Games the Packers should compete in: Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers
Games the Packers should struggle in: Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos
Statistically the Packers are favored in seven of their final ten games, and in the other three they are in a distant second. All in all, this should be an exciting season.
Finally, although the Packers have played like a middle of the road team thus far, their record sits at 5 - 1. That proves one thing. These Green Bay Packers know how to win.
Here's a look at the Packers opponents thus far
Philadelphia Eagles: 2 - 4 Record, Result W 16 - 13
New York Giants: 5 - 2 Record, Result W 35 - 13
San Diego Chargers: 3 - 3 Record, Result W 31 - 24
Minnesota Vikings: 2 - 4 Record, Result W 23 - 16
Chicago Bears: 3 - 4 Record, Result L 20 - 27
Washington Redskins: 4 - 2 Record, Result W 17 - 14
Combined Record: 19 - 19 or .500 W/L
Total Points Scored 142
Total Points Allowed 107
The Packers Offense through the first seven weeks looks like this
Rushing: Ranked 32nd, 65.7 YPG, 5 TD, 3.3 YPC
Passing: Ranked 3rd, 273.7 YPG, 9 TD, 6.9 YPC
Overall: Ranked 11th, 339.3 YPG, 23.7 PPG, 3rd Down 41% Successful, TO Ratio 0
The Packers Running attack has produced less yards than nineteen Backs in the league. They are near the middle of the pack overall, and in looking towards the future if they are unable to run the ball they will begin losing the close games.
The passing game was on track through the first four games, but seems to have faltered in the last two weeks.
Favre through the first four weeks: 112/170, 65% Comp PCT, 8 TD, 2 Int
Favre through the last two weeks: 48/77, 62% Comp PCT, 1 TD, 4 Int
If Favre continues to play with reckless abandon the Packers are in for a long second half of the season offensively.
Keys to success on offense:
1. Improved Offensive Line Play
2. Favre Returning to Form
3. More Run Plays
Bright Spots on Offense
1. Donald Lee's emergence
2. Koren Robinson's Return
3. Favre's Potential
4. Improved Pass Blocking
On Defense the Packers have been playing average.
Rushing: Ranked 11th, 100.2 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 2 TD
Passing: Ranked 22nd, 223.7 YPG, 6.8 YPC, 56.7% Comp PCT, 9 TD, 6 INT
Overall: Ranked 15th, 323 YPG, 5.1 YPP, 34% 3rd Down PCT, 17.8 PPG, 42 Penalties, 30:10 ToP
With how well this defense looked during the preseason it's a surprise how mediocre they are playing. With two of the elite cornerbacks in the league their passing defense has been less than stellar. The talk of the summer was of the much improved defensive line, yet they only have 15 sacks, which is good enough to have them at a three way tie for 14th best in the league. Their run defense is stout enough to keep the time of possession close to even, but teams are carving them up like a Turkey on Thanksgiving through the air.
In order for this team to see success in the latter half the season, they need to buckle down on three things. The tight end, protect the flats better, and have better coverage from the safety position.
Keys to Success on Defense:
1. New Tight End Cover Schemes
2. Improved Safety Play
3. New Nickleback
4. More Line Stunts
5. More Creative Blitzes
Bright Spots on Defense
1. Defensive Line in the Fourth Quarter
2. Nick Barnett's Pro-Bowl Year
3. Atari Bigby's Emergence
The Rest of the Year
Denver Broncos:
Record 3 - 3
Passing Offense: Ranked 11th, 227 YPG, 7.8 AVG, 7 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 9th, 130.7 YPG, 4.7 AVG, 3 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 2nd, 164.7 YPG, 7.8 AVG, 11 TD Allowed, 6 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 32nd, 176.2 YPG, 5.1 AVG, 6 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Establishing the run in order to set up the pass
If the Packers are unable to run against the worst run defense in the league, they will not win this game.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Record 4 - 3
Passing Offense: Ranked 19th, 211.6 YPG, 6.9 AVG, 7 TD, 7 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 29th, 82.1 YPG, 3.3 AVG, 2 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 9th, 197.1 YPG, 6.7 AVG, 6 TD Allowed, 8 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 17th, 108.7 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 3 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stopping Larry Johnson and winning the field position battle
This game will be all about possession and field position. Kansas City's pass defense is strong, which means the Packers will have trouble moving the ball, and with the Chiefs strong legged kicker they could lose this game on his leg.
Minnesota Vikings:
Record 2 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 30th, 151.8 YPG, 5.8 AVG, 3 TD, 6 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 1st, 164.7 YPG, 5.5 AVG, 6 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 32nd, 282.5 YPG, 7.3 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 7 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 4th, 76.5 YPG, 3.0 AVG, 1 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stopping Adrian Peterson and winning the turnover battle
Although Minnesota's pass defense is porous they have a few ball hawks, which could spell disaster for the Packers offense. If they lose the turnover battle Adrian Peterson is good enough to win this game for the Vikings. Don't expect Childress to give Favre and company another gift by taking the ball out of Peterson's hands again.
Carolina Panthers:
Record 4 - 2
Passing Offense: Ranked 27th, 184.8 YPG, 6.6 AVG, 11 TD, 3 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 8th, 132.6 YPG, 4.6 AVG, 2 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 21st, 221.2 YPG, 6.4 AVG, 5 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 18th, 108.7 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 3 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stopping Steve Smith
This game is simple, if the Packers stop Steve Smith they stop the Carolina Panthers. Although the Panthers are a highly productive running team they don't produce many points on the ground. Their game plan is efficiency, and by limiting their most efficient player, you limit their offense.
Detroit Lions:
Record 4 - 2
Passing Offense: Ranked 7th, 243 YPG, 7.7 AVG, 9 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 27th, 85.5 YPG, 4.2 AVG, 5 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 30th, 269.3 YPG, 7.6 AVG, 12 TD Allowed, 9 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 19th, 116.5 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 7 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Limit Lions passing attack
The teams that have done best against the Detroit Lions are the teams that have scored early and scored often. The Lions have one of the best passing offenses in the league, but to go along with that they have a terrible running offense and a terrible defense. If you limit the damage the Lions do through the air you win the game.
Dallas Cowboys:
Record 5 - 1
Passing Offense: Ranked 4th, 271.6 YPG, 8.3 AVG, 16 TD, 9 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 10th, 130.4 YPG, 4.8 AVG, 8 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 15th, 208.9 YPG, 6.5 AVG, 11 TD Allowed, 10 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 7th, 87 YPG, 3.6 AVG, 3 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Rattle Tony Romo, Tampa 2
The Buffalo Bills are a terrible team, yet they caused Tony Romo to throw five interceptions. Any other team would have blown out the Cowboys with that turnover ratio. The Bills were able to pressure Romo just enough to have him rush his throws, and it spelled disaster for him. The Cowboys have multiple weapons, but the two to fear are Terrel Owens and Jason Whitten. In order to stop these two, the Packers need to play a converted Tampa 2 defense. Play the safeties deep, and have Nick Barnett spy the QB from the middle of the field.
Oakland Raiders:
Record 2 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 29th, 171.8 YPG, 7.1 AVG, 8 TD, 8 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 4th, 145.8 YPG, 4.5 AVG, 5 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 12th, 204.2 YPG, 7.0 AVG, 6 TD Allowed, 10 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 29th, 141.7 YPG, 5.2 AVG, 9 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Stop the run
This game is all about the run. Oakland's rushing attack is all they have going for them on offense, and if the Packers are able to keep the Raiders running backs out of the endzone they win this game easily.
St. Louis Rams:
Record 0 - 7
Passing Offense: Ranked 25th, 192 YPG, 5.8 AVG, 5 TD, 15 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 28th, 82.6 YPG, 3.5 AVG, 0 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 10th, 201.1 YPG, 7.2 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 24th, 129.6 YPG, 4.0 AVG, 9 TD Allowed
Keys to the game: Win the game
This is not a classic trap game nor is it a difficult one. All the Packers have to do is not lose the game.
Chicago Bears:
Record 3 - 4
Passing Offense: Ranked 13th, 220.6 YPG, 6.7 AVG, 9 TD, 12 Int
Rushing Offense: Ranked 30th, 81.1 YPG, 3.2 AVG, 2 TD
Passing Defense: Ranked 23rd, 224.9 YPG, 7.7 AVG, 9 TD Allowed, 5 Int
Rushing Defense: Ranked 26th, 132.6 YPG, 4.6 AVG, 7 TD Allowed
Key to the game: Pass, Pass, Pass
The Chicago Bears are a rattled team, they've gone from a running team with a world class defense, to a passing team with a terrible defense. The Packers let the first game of the series slip by in the second half, because of poor play calling and decision making. If the Packers don't want to repeat the disappointment they need to stick with what works for them. Short passes.
Looking at the final ten games of the schedule it is easy to see the games the Packers should win, the games the Packers should be competitive in, and the games the Packers will struggle in. With this said, even the games that appear to be a struggle are winnable. As in previous years, where there appeared to be unwinnable games on the schedule, this year the Packers look to have a chance in every game.
Games the Packers should win: Detroit Lions X2, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams
Games the Packers should compete in: Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers
Games the Packers should struggle in: Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos
Statistically the Packers are favored in seven of their final ten games, and in the other three they are in a distant second. All in all, this should be an exciting season.
Finally, although the Packers have played like a middle of the road team thus far, their record sits at 5 - 1. That proves one thing. These Green Bay Packers know how to win.