Bretsky
10-24-2007, 08:10 PM
Packers' Next Opponent: Odds favor Broncos
But they will be without several starters Monday
By BOB McGINN
bmcginn@journalsentinel.com
Posted: Oct. 23, 2007
Green Bay - The Denver Broncos are 10 days removed from suffering their worst home defeat in 41 years, they'll be missing at least five starters because of injury and their next opponent, the Green Bay Packers, is 5-1 and coming off a bye.
Nevertheless, oddsmakers have installed the Broncos as a 3-point favorite over the Packers on Monday night at Invesco Field.
"Denver's going to win that game," an assistant coach for a recent Broncos opponent said. "They beat Pittsburgh. They've got the momentum. And that crowd there is extremely loud."
The Broncos are coming off their finest performance in a 3-3 season, a 31-28 upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Denver. It followed a 41-3 trouncing by San Diego, after which coach Mike Shanahan declared, "I don't know if I've ever been more embarrassed."
Shanahan, 55, is 76-24 at home during the regular season but just 3-6 since last October. After winning the second of two Super Bowls in January 1999, the Broncos are 79-55 in the regular season but just 1-4 in the playoffs.
For the second straight season, Shanahan's team is the oldest in the AFC. He turned over an astonishing 14 starters from September 2006 to September 2007, continuing to build more through free agency than the draft.
"I think they're looking for reasons to fail there," another opposing assistant said. "Denver's not real strong this year. I think Green Bay should win the game.
"Denver is much like a college team. When they get up on you their emotions are riding high. But if you get up on them they really drag."
Jim Bates, the Packers' popular defensive coordinator in 2005, has the National Football League's worst run defense as the Broncos' first-year coordinator.
"They changed up against the Steelers," one coach said. "They put eight and nine guys in the box, the Steelers couldn't run and then they didn't throw it well because they couldn't handle the pressure.
"I know Jim Bates, and he is going to bring pressure. Jim was at Green Bay. If anybody knows Green Bay, he knows them. (Brett) Favre ain't going to have a lot of time."
OFFENSE
SCHEME
Mike Shanahan's version of the West Coast offense features bootlegs, screens and a zone run game that dates to 1995, when Alex Gibbs was on his staff. His base set is one RB, two TEs and two WRs. From it, Shanahan uses shifts and motions trying to find advantageous matchups. Shanahan is running on 47.1% of the downs. The Broncos rank fifth in yards (358.3), tied for 18th in giveaways (13) and 26th in points (17.7).
RECEIVERS
With former Packer Javon Walker (knee) out indefinitely, slot WR Brandon Stokley (5 feet 11 inches, 192 pounds) starts opposite Brandon Marshall (6-4½, 225). Stokley, who blew out his Achilles' tendon while with Indianapolis in December, is fully recovered and playing well. He's a nifty, precise route runner, is exceptional from the slot on third down and has a penchant for big plays. Marshall also is physical inside, runs extremely well after the catch and can sneak deep. Free agent Glenn Martinez (6-1½, 190), who played at Saginaw Valley State alongside Green Bay's Ruvell Martin, is a possession man. Venerable Rod Smith (hip) won't play for several more weeks. Daniel Graham (6-3, 257) and Tony Scheffler (6-5½, 250) make a superb pair of TEs. Graham, who left New England in March for $15 million guaranteed, is one of the elite blockers at the position and should be used more as a receiver. Scheffler, a second-round pick in '06 who played alongside Green Bay's Greg Jennings at Western Michigan, has 4.54-second speed in the 40-yard dash and is a major threat. However, he's iffy with a sprained ankle from Sunday night.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is Shanahan's biggest group ever. Two of the top three starters, LG Ben Hamilton (concussion) and C Tom Nalen (biceps), are on injured reserve. LT Matt Lepsis (6-5, 290), a starter since 1999, is a finesse player who is athletic enough to steer speed rushers but has problems against power. C Chris Myers (6-4½, 295), a sixth-round pick in '05 who moved from left guard when Nalen went down in Week 5, possesses adequate size and strength. He just can't move anybody off the ball. Both LG Chris Kuper (6-4½, 302), a fifth-round pick in '06 who debuted as a starter Sunday night, and RG Montrae Holland (6-1½, 322) are wide bodies. The Alaskan-born Kuper can be shaky in protection. Holland, a backup in New Orleans, can strike a blow in close quarters but isn't very agile. RT Erik Pears (6-7½, 305), a free agent in '05, made 10 starts at LT in '06. Fast and athletic, Pears doesn't pass block with good leverage.
QUARTERBACKS
Jay Cutler (6-3, 233), the 11th pick in '06, was handed the reins in Week 12 last year and is coming off his best outing of the season. Cutler, who scored 29 on the Wonderlic intelligence test, has a bazooka for an arm, improving touch and excellent toughness. Cutler had to take chances with his arm at Vanderbilt and still does, which leads to bad plays. He runs well (4.77), is dangerous on the move and doesn't let mistakes bother him. His passer rating is 84.2. Former Redskin Patrick Ramsey (6-2, 225) is No. 2.
RUNNING BACKS
Travis Henry (5-9, 230), an underrated player, suffered bruised ribs against Pittsburgh and is iffy. He's like a cement mixer, a mini-bowling ball with thick thighs who can run over and around people. Speed and receiving ability are his limiting factors. Selvin Young (5-11, 207), a rookie free agent, enters on third down. He isn't fast but he has plenty of skill and can pass-block. So can FB Cecil Sapp (5-11, 229), a first-year starter. Swing man Mike Bell (6-0½, 225) rushed for 677 yards as a rookie free agent in '06.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Jim Bates, 61, coordinates the same Jimmy Johnson-type defense that he did in Green Bay. However, his front seven lacks size and can't handle the run without a safety in the box, which Bates is loathe to do. Bates would like to play more press-man coverage but doesn't have the personnel or rush to do it. Two of Bates' aides in Green Bay, Bob Slowik (DB) and Joe Baker (LB), also assist him in Denver. The inability to cover tight ends has been a daunting problem. The Broncos rank 20th in yards allowed (340.8), 26th in points allowed (27.3) and tied for 26th in takeaways (nine).
DEFENSIVE LINE
The mix of aging veterans and rookies isn't working. NT Sam Adams (6-2½, 385) is 34, has a bad knee, practices one day a week and is just too fat. DT Amon Gordon was benched in Week 5 for rookie Marcus Thomas (6-2½, 315), a fourth-round pick with first-round ability. Thomas has brought some much-needed penetration and energy. Rookie DE Tim Crowder (6-3½, 275), a second-round pick, is an underachiever with 4.69 speed. He plays inside in nickel. The best player is DE Elvis Dumervil (5-11½, 260), a fourth-round pick in '06 who has become a dangerous pass rusher. He flies off the edge with 4.75 speed and never quits. The other starting DE, Ebenezer Ekuban, went on injured reserve Aug. 20 (Achilles' tendon). His replacement, former 49er John Engelberger (6-4½, 260), still tries hard but has little to offer. Rookie DE Jarvis Moss (6-6½, 265), the 17th pick, has 4.72 speed but lacks strength and more than an up-field move. DE Simeon Rice (6-5, 268), who is 33 and fading fast, has a shoulder injury and probably will miss another week.
LINEBACKERS
MLB D.J. Williams (6-0½, 242), the 17th pick in '04, is playing his third position and isn't as decisive. He has 4.59 speed, has 24 more tackles than anyone else and is a great athlete. With WLB Ian Gold (6-1, 223), everything is based on speed. But in his eighth season he has lost a step and isn't making as many tackles. SLB Nate Webster (5-10½, 232) doesn't react well, doesn't tackle well and isn't physical. When blockers get on Gold and Webster, they're rolled out as if on skates.
SECONDARY
The key is whether Champ Bailey (6-0, 192), the game's finest cornerback, can play after sitting out Sunday night with a thigh injury. Bailey, 29, is equally dominant against run and pass. CB Dre Bly (5-10, 188), acquired from Detroit via trade in March, has great ball skills and feel but takes too many chances and ends up getting toasted too much. Plus, he isn't a tackler. Domonique Foxworth (5-11, 180), the No. 3 CB, has blazing speed but really doesn't like to tackle. John Lynch (6-2, 220) remains an all-time hitter and effective blitzer. The problem for Bates is that his aging safeties, Lynch and SS Nick Ferguson (5-9½, 201), can't cover.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Jason Elam, 37, has been responsible for all three victories with walk-off field goals of 42, 23 and 49 yards. He made 93.1% in '06, the best mark of his illustrious career. If you filmed Elam, his hands, arms, shoulders and head would be identical on every kick. As he ages, his ball isn't as high or as long as it used to be. P Todd Sauerbrun, 34, also has to kick off for new special-teams coach Scott O'Brien, the Superior native who coached Sauerbrun in Carolina from 2001-'04. Sauerbrun's typically low punts travel 51 yards and are returned 13. Neither the return game nor the coverage units are up to O'Brien's previously high standards. Bailey has saved three TDs on kickoffs from his deep position on the coverage team.
But they will be without several starters Monday
By BOB McGINN
bmcginn@journalsentinel.com
Posted: Oct. 23, 2007
Green Bay - The Denver Broncos are 10 days removed from suffering their worst home defeat in 41 years, they'll be missing at least five starters because of injury and their next opponent, the Green Bay Packers, is 5-1 and coming off a bye.
Nevertheless, oddsmakers have installed the Broncos as a 3-point favorite over the Packers on Monday night at Invesco Field.
"Denver's going to win that game," an assistant coach for a recent Broncos opponent said. "They beat Pittsburgh. They've got the momentum. And that crowd there is extremely loud."
The Broncos are coming off their finest performance in a 3-3 season, a 31-28 upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers in Denver. It followed a 41-3 trouncing by San Diego, after which coach Mike Shanahan declared, "I don't know if I've ever been more embarrassed."
Shanahan, 55, is 76-24 at home during the regular season but just 3-6 since last October. After winning the second of two Super Bowls in January 1999, the Broncos are 79-55 in the regular season but just 1-4 in the playoffs.
For the second straight season, Shanahan's team is the oldest in the AFC. He turned over an astonishing 14 starters from September 2006 to September 2007, continuing to build more through free agency than the draft.
"I think they're looking for reasons to fail there," another opposing assistant said. "Denver's not real strong this year. I think Green Bay should win the game.
"Denver is much like a college team. When they get up on you their emotions are riding high. But if you get up on them they really drag."
Jim Bates, the Packers' popular defensive coordinator in 2005, has the National Football League's worst run defense as the Broncos' first-year coordinator.
"They changed up against the Steelers," one coach said. "They put eight and nine guys in the box, the Steelers couldn't run and then they didn't throw it well because they couldn't handle the pressure.
"I know Jim Bates, and he is going to bring pressure. Jim was at Green Bay. If anybody knows Green Bay, he knows them. (Brett) Favre ain't going to have a lot of time."
OFFENSE
SCHEME
Mike Shanahan's version of the West Coast offense features bootlegs, screens and a zone run game that dates to 1995, when Alex Gibbs was on his staff. His base set is one RB, two TEs and two WRs. From it, Shanahan uses shifts and motions trying to find advantageous matchups. Shanahan is running on 47.1% of the downs. The Broncos rank fifth in yards (358.3), tied for 18th in giveaways (13) and 26th in points (17.7).
RECEIVERS
With former Packer Javon Walker (knee) out indefinitely, slot WR Brandon Stokley (5 feet 11 inches, 192 pounds) starts opposite Brandon Marshall (6-4½, 225). Stokley, who blew out his Achilles' tendon while with Indianapolis in December, is fully recovered and playing well. He's a nifty, precise route runner, is exceptional from the slot on third down and has a penchant for big plays. Marshall also is physical inside, runs extremely well after the catch and can sneak deep. Free agent Glenn Martinez (6-1½, 190), who played at Saginaw Valley State alongside Green Bay's Ruvell Martin, is a possession man. Venerable Rod Smith (hip) won't play for several more weeks. Daniel Graham (6-3, 257) and Tony Scheffler (6-5½, 250) make a superb pair of TEs. Graham, who left New England in March for $15 million guaranteed, is one of the elite blockers at the position and should be used more as a receiver. Scheffler, a second-round pick in '06 who played alongside Green Bay's Greg Jennings at Western Michigan, has 4.54-second speed in the 40-yard dash and is a major threat. However, he's iffy with a sprained ankle from Sunday night.
OFFENSIVE LINE
This is Shanahan's biggest group ever. Two of the top three starters, LG Ben Hamilton (concussion) and C Tom Nalen (biceps), are on injured reserve. LT Matt Lepsis (6-5, 290), a starter since 1999, is a finesse player who is athletic enough to steer speed rushers but has problems against power. C Chris Myers (6-4½, 295), a sixth-round pick in '05 who moved from left guard when Nalen went down in Week 5, possesses adequate size and strength. He just can't move anybody off the ball. Both LG Chris Kuper (6-4½, 302), a fifth-round pick in '06 who debuted as a starter Sunday night, and RG Montrae Holland (6-1½, 322) are wide bodies. The Alaskan-born Kuper can be shaky in protection. Holland, a backup in New Orleans, can strike a blow in close quarters but isn't very agile. RT Erik Pears (6-7½, 305), a free agent in '05, made 10 starts at LT in '06. Fast and athletic, Pears doesn't pass block with good leverage.
QUARTERBACKS
Jay Cutler (6-3, 233), the 11th pick in '06, was handed the reins in Week 12 last year and is coming off his best outing of the season. Cutler, who scored 29 on the Wonderlic intelligence test, has a bazooka for an arm, improving touch and excellent toughness. Cutler had to take chances with his arm at Vanderbilt and still does, which leads to bad plays. He runs well (4.77), is dangerous on the move and doesn't let mistakes bother him. His passer rating is 84.2. Former Redskin Patrick Ramsey (6-2, 225) is No. 2.
RUNNING BACKS
Travis Henry (5-9, 230), an underrated player, suffered bruised ribs against Pittsburgh and is iffy. He's like a cement mixer, a mini-bowling ball with thick thighs who can run over and around people. Speed and receiving ability are his limiting factors. Selvin Young (5-11, 207), a rookie free agent, enters on third down. He isn't fast but he has plenty of skill and can pass-block. So can FB Cecil Sapp (5-11, 229), a first-year starter. Swing man Mike Bell (6-0½, 225) rushed for 677 yards as a rookie free agent in '06.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Jim Bates, 61, coordinates the same Jimmy Johnson-type defense that he did in Green Bay. However, his front seven lacks size and can't handle the run without a safety in the box, which Bates is loathe to do. Bates would like to play more press-man coverage but doesn't have the personnel or rush to do it. Two of Bates' aides in Green Bay, Bob Slowik (DB) and Joe Baker (LB), also assist him in Denver. The inability to cover tight ends has been a daunting problem. The Broncos rank 20th in yards allowed (340.8), 26th in points allowed (27.3) and tied for 26th in takeaways (nine).
DEFENSIVE LINE
The mix of aging veterans and rookies isn't working. NT Sam Adams (6-2½, 385) is 34, has a bad knee, practices one day a week and is just too fat. DT Amon Gordon was benched in Week 5 for rookie Marcus Thomas (6-2½, 315), a fourth-round pick with first-round ability. Thomas has brought some much-needed penetration and energy. Rookie DE Tim Crowder (6-3½, 275), a second-round pick, is an underachiever with 4.69 speed. He plays inside in nickel. The best player is DE Elvis Dumervil (5-11½, 260), a fourth-round pick in '06 who has become a dangerous pass rusher. He flies off the edge with 4.75 speed and never quits. The other starting DE, Ebenezer Ekuban, went on injured reserve Aug. 20 (Achilles' tendon). His replacement, former 49er John Engelberger (6-4½, 260), still tries hard but has little to offer. Rookie DE Jarvis Moss (6-6½, 265), the 17th pick, has 4.72 speed but lacks strength and more than an up-field move. DE Simeon Rice (6-5, 268), who is 33 and fading fast, has a shoulder injury and probably will miss another week.
LINEBACKERS
MLB D.J. Williams (6-0½, 242), the 17th pick in '04, is playing his third position and isn't as decisive. He has 4.59 speed, has 24 more tackles than anyone else and is a great athlete. With WLB Ian Gold (6-1, 223), everything is based on speed. But in his eighth season he has lost a step and isn't making as many tackles. SLB Nate Webster (5-10½, 232) doesn't react well, doesn't tackle well and isn't physical. When blockers get on Gold and Webster, they're rolled out as if on skates.
SECONDARY
The key is whether Champ Bailey (6-0, 192), the game's finest cornerback, can play after sitting out Sunday night with a thigh injury. Bailey, 29, is equally dominant against run and pass. CB Dre Bly (5-10, 188), acquired from Detroit via trade in March, has great ball skills and feel but takes too many chances and ends up getting toasted too much. Plus, he isn't a tackler. Domonique Foxworth (5-11, 180), the No. 3 CB, has blazing speed but really doesn't like to tackle. John Lynch (6-2, 220) remains an all-time hitter and effective blitzer. The problem for Bates is that his aging safeties, Lynch and SS Nick Ferguson (5-9½, 201), can't cover.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Jason Elam, 37, has been responsible for all three victories with walk-off field goals of 42, 23 and 49 yards. He made 93.1% in '06, the best mark of his illustrious career. If you filmed Elam, his hands, arms, shoulders and head would be identical on every kick. As he ages, his ball isn't as high or as long as it used to be. P Todd Sauerbrun, 34, also has to kick off for new special-teams coach Scott O'Brien, the Superior native who coached Sauerbrun in Carolina from 2001-'04. Sauerbrun's typically low punts travel 51 yards and are returned 13. Neither the return game nor the coverage units are up to O'Brien's previously high standards. Bailey has saved three TDs on kickoffs from his deep position on the coverage team.