Bretsky
10-26-2007, 10:01 PM
Crunching the Numbers
Packers hope self-scouting can fix the run game
Posted: Oct. 26, 2007
Greg A. Bedard
E-MAIL
The buzzword around the Green Bay Packers during and after the bye week was "self-scout."
Guess that's technically two words - maybe we need a little self-scouting around here - but coach Mike McCarthy nevertheless used the phrase six times in news conferences since the Packers last played, a 17-14 victory over the Washington Redskins on Oct. 14.
Basically, the Packers, like all teams, use the bye week to look under the hood and see how things are running.
There was a lot of film work involved - all the coaches locked themselves in a room and watched every single play of the season so far - but there was also a lot of number crunching at work.
One obvious area in need of dissection was the Packers' 32nd-ranked rushing offense. If Green Bay is to finish strong in its final 10 games, that unit needs to improve. So the coaches looked at the film and numbers to see what was working (not much) and what wasn't working in order to set a better course for the second half of the season.
Here's some of what the Packers coaches likely discovered, after we did a little crunching of the numbers centered on that department, according to statistics by STATS LLC:
The Packers should run to the right side more.
Of the 107 carries by Green Bay running backs, 45 went to the left side (42.1%), 23 to the middle (21.5%), and 39 (36.4%) to the right.
And based on the per-carry averages for each side - left (3.8), middle (2.2), right (4.1) - two things are apparent: the Packers should stay away from the middle of the field, and it's time to ride the backs of right tackle Mark Tauscher and right guards Junius Coston and Jason Spitz to start the second half of the season.
How the running backs line up doesn't matter overall.
The Packers used four primary alignments in the first six games: shotgun (11% of carries), split backs (17.3%), I-formation (51.9%) and lone back (20.2%).
Here are the averages for those formations: shotgun (3.7), split backs (3.8), I-formation (3.9) and lone back (3.4). So there isn't a huge disparity among them. (NOTE: For some reason STATS is missing three running backs carries in this category that went for minus-10 yards.)
But there are a few conclusions to be drawn on an individual basis.
DeShawn Wynn is best in the I-formation (26 carries, 129 yards, 5.0 average, 2 touchdowns) and shotgun (4 carries, 22 yards, 5.5 average, one touchdown). He has not been as successful when the backs are split (5 carries, 14 yards, 2.8 average).
Brandon Jackson really struggled in the I-formation (8 carries, 29 yards, 3.6 average). His best formation is being the lone back (4.5), but he's only gotten two carries there.
Vernand Morency has shown promise in the I-formation (7 carries, 35 yards, 5.0 average) but surprisingly has struggled in the shotgun (3 for 8, 2.7) and as the lone setback (4 for 11, 2.8), even though he is the Packers' quickest running back.
Spread the defense out.
This is the one area where the numbers are definitive.
When the Packers line up with 0-2 wide receivers - an astonishing 76.6% of the 107 running back carries - the backs average 3.0 yard per carry (82 for 245).
When Green Bay uses three or more receivers, the average per carry jumps to 5.5 (25 for 137).
Those numbers are also backed up when you look at the allocation of the tight end. When the Packers line up with no tight ends, the running backs average 5.9 yards per carry (20 for 118) as opposed to 3.0 (87 for 264) when 1-3 tight ends are on the field.
On Monday night, the Packers' 32nd-ranked run offense (65.7 yards) meets the 32nd-ranked run defense of the Broncos (176.2). So if there was ever a game for Green Bay to get things straightened out on the ground, this would be it.
Based on the numbers, the Packers might be wise to line up in the I-formation with four receivers and no tight ends, and then run Wynn to the right side.
At least that's what their self-scouting should have told them.
Packers hope self-scouting can fix the run game
Posted: Oct. 26, 2007
Greg A. Bedard
The buzzword around the Green Bay Packers during and after the bye week was "self-scout."
Guess that's technically two words - maybe we need a little self-scouting around here - but coach Mike McCarthy nevertheless used the phrase six times in news conferences since the Packers last played, a 17-14 victory over the Washington Redskins on Oct. 14.
Basically, the Packers, like all teams, use the bye week to look under the hood and see how things are running.
There was a lot of film work involved - all the coaches locked themselves in a room and watched every single play of the season so far - but there was also a lot of number crunching at work.
One obvious area in need of dissection was the Packers' 32nd-ranked rushing offense. If Green Bay is to finish strong in its final 10 games, that unit needs to improve. So the coaches looked at the film and numbers to see what was working (not much) and what wasn't working in order to set a better course for the second half of the season.
Here's some of what the Packers coaches likely discovered, after we did a little crunching of the numbers centered on that department, according to statistics by STATS LLC:
The Packers should run to the right side more.
Of the 107 carries by Green Bay running backs, 45 went to the left side (42.1%), 23 to the middle (21.5%), and 39 (36.4%) to the right.
And based on the per-carry averages for each side - left (3.8), middle (2.2), right (4.1) - two things are apparent: the Packers should stay away from the middle of the field, and it's time to ride the backs of right tackle Mark Tauscher and right guards Junius Coston and Jason Spitz to start the second half of the season.
How the running backs line up doesn't matter overall.
The Packers used four primary alignments in the first six games: shotgun (11% of carries), split backs (17.3%), I-formation (51.9%) and lone back (20.2%).
Here are the averages for those formations: shotgun (3.7), split backs (3.8), I-formation (3.9) and lone back (3.4). So there isn't a huge disparity among them. (NOTE: For some reason STATS is missing three running backs carries in this category that went for minus-10 yards.)
But there are a few conclusions to be drawn on an individual basis.
DeShawn Wynn is best in the I-formation (26 carries, 129 yards, 5.0 average, 2 touchdowns) and shotgun (4 carries, 22 yards, 5.5 average, one touchdown). He has not been as successful when the backs are split (5 carries, 14 yards, 2.8 average).
Brandon Jackson really struggled in the I-formation (8 carries, 29 yards, 3.6 average). His best formation is being the lone back (4.5), but he's only gotten two carries there.
Vernand Morency has shown promise in the I-formation (7 carries, 35 yards, 5.0 average) but surprisingly has struggled in the shotgun (3 for 8, 2.7) and as the lone setback (4 for 11, 2.8), even though he is the Packers' quickest running back.
Spread the defense out.
This is the one area where the numbers are definitive.
When the Packers line up with 0-2 wide receivers - an astonishing 76.6% of the 107 running back carries - the backs average 3.0 yard per carry (82 for 245).
When Green Bay uses three or more receivers, the average per carry jumps to 5.5 (25 for 137).
Those numbers are also backed up when you look at the allocation of the tight end. When the Packers line up with no tight ends, the running backs average 5.9 yards per carry (20 for 118) as opposed to 3.0 (87 for 264) when 1-3 tight ends are on the field.
On Monday night, the Packers' 32nd-ranked run offense (65.7 yards) meets the 32nd-ranked run defense of the Broncos (176.2). So if there was ever a game for Green Bay to get things straightened out on the ground, this would be it.
Based on the numbers, the Packers might be wise to line up in the I-formation with four receivers and no tight ends, and then run Wynn to the right side.
At least that's what their self-scouting should have told them.