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motife
11-01-2007, 06:25 PM
Packers' Next Opponent: Little goes a long way
Offense lacks luster, but that hasn't stopped Chiefs
Posted: Oct. 31, 2007
Bob McGinn

Green Bay - To say that the Kansas City Chiefs have gained little respect from their recent opposition for their surprising share of the AFC West lead would be an understatement.

"It's not going to last," an executive in personnel for a Chiefs' foe said Wednesday. "I could see them being anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8."

Atop the division with San Diego at 4-3, the Chiefs will seek their fifth victory in six games Sunday against the Green Bay Packers at Arrowhead Stadium.

"I'm just shocked Kansas City has won four games," another opposing scout said. "I was under the impression that they would be lousy. They remind me of Baltimore the year they won the Super Bowl. Their defense is really good and they just tell the offense, 'Don't blow it.' "

The Chiefs, who have been outscored, 113-102, trailed by at least 10 points in their first five games but still managed to win twice, including a mystifying 30-16 victory in San Diego.

Kansas City, a two-point favorite, is coming off victories over Cincinnati (27-20) and Oakland (12-10) followed by a bye weekend.

"I would take Green Bay," one of the scouts said. "I like Kansas City's front seven but other than that I don't like the rest of the team.

"With that running game, Green Bay will have a hard time getting them out of that Cover 2, so it will be hard to expose all those people. But I don't know what Kansas City can do offensively against anybody. I assume it's going to be a low-scoring game."

Despite the presence of all-pro running back Larry Johnson and the great Tony Gonzalez at tight end, the Chiefs aren't explosive. An aging offensive line is the main culprit behind a ground game ranked just 28th.

"The thing they've got to do is shut Larry down early," a defensive coach for a recent Chiefs' foe said. "Larry's a front-runner. If he gets going, look out. But if things don't go well, it gets ugly for him.

"If the Packers can get on top, I'd put my money on Green Bay's offense against their defense."

OFFENSE
SCHEME
Mike Solari, a career line coach, was promoted to coordinator by coach Herm Edwards in 2006. Solari uses a power running game and a passing game with elements of the West Coast and Mike Martz in it. The Chiefs run to set up play-action passes. The Chiefs are tied for 15th in fewest giveaways (13), 27th in yards (293.7) and 28th in points (14.6).

RECEIVERS
Tony Gonzalez (6 feet 4 inches, 251 pounds) attacks the middle of the field with his speed and athleticism, often forcing teams to match up with their best cornerback. He uses basketball-type moves to shield defenders. And he can run all day. Jason Dunn (6-5, 274), the backup since 2000, still packs punch as a blocker. Impressive rookie WR Dwayne Bowe (6-2, 221), the 23rd pick, lacks top speed but is fearless in traffic and powerful after the catch. Samie Parker (5-10, 190), who has started all season for injured Eddie Kennison (5-11 1 /2, 201), can get deep but isn't much of a threat. Kennison, in his 12th season, has missed all but a handful of plays with a hamstring injury but did practice Wednesday and could return. He still can get deep. Jeff Webb (6-2, 211) ran 40 yards in 4.40 in '06 and isn't bad.

OFFENSIVE LINE
This is the Chiefs' weakest area. The poorest starters are RG John Welbourn (6-5, 310) and RT Chris Terry (6-5, 295). Welbourn is strong and smart (34 on the Wonderlic test) but can't move or change direction. Terry replaced struggling Kyle Turley (6-5, 306) in Week 5 and looks stiff. Both players are well past their prime. Also in decline is Casey Wiegmann (6-2, 285), a 12-year veteran from Aaron Kampman's high school in Iowa. He's tenacious and quick but has short arms and gets stalemated by bulk. The new LT is Damion McIntosh (6-4, 320), a six-year starter in San Diego and Miami. He remains fairly athletic but isn't technically sound or very physical. LG Brian Waters (6-2, 320), a Pro Bowl choice the last three years, is a mauler who does well on short pulls.

QUARTERBACKS
The Chiefs planned to start Brodie Croyle (6-2 1/2, 206), a third-round pick in '06. But when Croyle proved to be so erratic in August they turned to Damon Huard (6-3 1/2, 218), who went 5-3 as the starter in '06 after Trent Green was injured. Huard, 34, has just 21 pro starts. On paper, it doesn't add up. His arm strength is well below average, he can't run at all and his athleticism is marginal. But Huard can be streaky good, makes few mistakes and is accurate at short-to-intermediate range. His passer ratings were 98.0 last year, 79.8 this year. Huard isn't talented enough to create but usually avoids the killer mistake.

RUNNING BACKS
Larry Johnson (6-1, 230) has been the NFL's elite power back since supplanting Priest Holmes (5-9, 213) in mid-2005. Johnson's relentless style is reminiscent of Emmitt Smith, but he's also much bigger and faster. He pounds and pounds and pounds, and by the fourth quarter some defenders start turning down tackles. Remember, he ran 4.43 and had a 41-inch vertical jump out of Penn State in '03. He's deficient in pass protection, average at best as a receiver. His frustration level can explode when his blockers can't get him to the line. Holmes, 34, has made an unexpected comeback from neck and head trauma suffered in Week 7 of '05. A Pro Bowler in 2002 and '03, Holmes had all of three days of practice before taking the field Oct. 21 against Oakland for six to eight plays. Projected to play Sunday on third downs, no one really knows if Holmes can make plays or hold up. FB Kris Wilson (6-2, 251) is fast and athletic but doesn't block or catch consistently.

DEFENSE
SCHEME

Gunther Cunningham, 61, is in his 10th Chiefs' season either as head coach or coordinator. It's a Cover 2 system from a base 4-3. In an effort to protect a vulnerable secondary, Cunningham prefers not to blitz. The Chiefs are tied for eighth in takeaways (15), sixth in points allowed (16.1) and 11th in yards allowed (305.9).

DEFENSIVE LINE

RE Jared Allen (6-6, 270), a sixth-round pick from Idaho State in '04, is playing at Pro Bowl-level. He has tremendous quickness off the ball, is relentless and has 4.72 speed. He also has improved his strength and now takes care of the run, too. LE Tamba Hali (6-3, 275), the 20th pick in '06, has played hurt most of the season and should benefit from the bye. He's another reckless, fast pass rusher with lots of energy. DT Alfonso Boone (6-3, 305), who signed a four-year, $6.9 million ($1 million bonus) to leave Chicago in March, has filled a Chiefs' void that has existed all decade. Boone, 31, is a pretty good athlete for a point-of-attack player, pushes the pocket and shows long pursuit. NT Ron Edwards (6-2 1/2, 315), a former Bill, uses strength to hold his own against the run but isn't a pass rusher.

LINEBACKERS
In unrestricted free agency, the Chiefs signed RLB Donnie Edwards, 34, from San Diego (three years for $13.5 million, including $3.25 million in bonuses) and MLB Napoleon Harris, 28, from Minnesota (six years for $23.2 million, including a $6 million signing bonus). Edwards (6-2, 224) still is athletic, instinctive and productive against run and pass. He's having a terrific season. Harris (6-3, 253) is strong and can run but always seems a step late and is ordinary in coverage. LLB Derrick Johnson (6-3, 242), the 15th pick in '05, has extraordinary speed (4.51), covers well and effectively knows how to slip blocks and make tackles. Neither Edwards nor Johnson is a big hitter but they're always in on the action.

SECONDARY
Former Patriot LC Ty Law (5-11, 200), 33, is on his last legs. Selected to the Pro Bowl four times (as recently as '05), Law tries to get by on his awareness and strength. He gets in trouble by taking chances, trying to add to his interception total of 51. RC Patrick Surtain (5-10 1/2, 195), a Pro Bowler for Miami in 2002 and '03, still has quickness and tackles well. But, at 31, he has lost considerable speed as well. Rookie free agent Tyron Brackenridge (5-11 1/2, 189), the nickel back, fits the Cover 2 mold of aggressive, slow cornerbacks. The first-year starters at safety, Jarrad Page (6-0 1/2, 225) and Bernard Pollard (6-1 1/2, 224), run in the high 4.5s and don't cover much ground. Page, a seventh-round pick in '06, is smart (25 on the Wonderlic) and athletic but misses his share of tackles. Pollard, a second-round pick in '06, is better at the line and strikes like a linebacker, but he also scored just 15 on the Wonderlic and gets himself out of position. Veteran Greg Wesley (6-2, 206), a Chiefs' starter since being drafted in the third round in '00, rotates in for both starters and has better ball skills.

SPECIAL TEAMS
K Dave Rayner, a former Packer, is 10 for 13, with misses from 31 and 30 yards in the last three weeks. He leads the NFL in average kickoff at 69.3 yards. Dustin Colquitt, 25, is ranked sixth in gross average (46.5) and tied for 13th in net (37.8). After trading Dante Hall in April, the Chiefs signed former Lion Eddie Drummond Aug. 26 as their dual returner. Drummond, 27, used to be dynamite but is coming off his poorest season and hasn't done anything yet. Pollard is a major kick-blocking threat.

motife
11-01-2007, 06:26 PM
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Joemailman
11-01-2007, 08:25 PM
With RT being a weak spot for the Chiefs, look for Kampman to dominate again. I also think Jennings, and to a lesser extent, Jones may be able to beat the Chiefs CB's deep. It will be interesting to see if Sanders tries to cover Gonzalez primarily with Popp and Hawk, or if the safeties will draw more of that assignment. In the second half against Washington, the safeties were giving more help in the nickel package, and they shut Cooley down.

Him8123
11-01-2007, 09:34 PM
I say we just throw Jennings, Jones, Driver, Robinson, and Lee or Martin in there and give them hell all day. Very very few teams could possibly even make an attempt to stop that. Scary...

The Leaper
11-02-2007, 08:04 AM
I agree that this is yet another of the "pass happy" games on our schedule. Favre will need to put the ball up 35 times in this one.

Defensively, we have to pressure the QB...utilizing blitzes more often than we have been. If we can force a couple turnovers, we can win this game.

It is going to be close...and probably low scoring...regardless though. Once again, it is good we have the advantage of Favre at QB.