vince
11-10-2007, 06:23 PM
Believe it - or not!
After Week 9, the Packers are rated by FootballOutsiders.com (http://www.footballoutsiders.com)as having the 16th most efficient rushing attack in the league. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
I wasn't familiar with their methodology, but found their results interesting, since many of them vary significantly from more simplistic conventional methods of statistical analysis. Not having seen it discussed here, here's some background, in case anyone's interested.
Football Outsiders delivers objective in-depth NFL statistical analysis to the level that Bill James has brought to baseball. Their statistical analysis starts with what they call a DVOA - Defense Adjusted Value Over Average. This means that each individual play's result is analyzed relative to a) the "situation", and b) the statistical quality of the defense played that week. All of these variables are adjusted relative to league averages. In other words, every single play is broken down to see how much "success" the play achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
The justification for the adjustments is based on the fact that the biggest variable in football is that each team plays a different schedule. By adjusting each play based on each opponent's defense's average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, they get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Offensive plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; receiving plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers.
"Success" is defined by the play's results relative to football's one objective - to get the ball to the end zone. There are two combinations of results that lead to that achievement - gaining yards and getting first downs. Plays that gain more yards are more successful, but plays that gain first downs also add "success." Down and distance statistics are also factored into the equation. In other words, a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 is more "successful" than the same 3 yard gain when it's 1st and 10.
Here are the additional details, as stated on the website...
DVOA does a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games. It uses a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.
We then expand upon that basic idea with a more complicated system of "success points." A successful play is worth one point, an unsuccessful play zero points. Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards, four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. There are fractional points in between. (For example, eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.63 "success points.") Losing four yards is -1 point, losing 12 yards is -1.8 points, an interception is -6 points, and a fumble is worth anywhere from -1.70 to -3.98 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense - no matter who actually recovers the fumble. Red zone plays are worth 20 percent more, and there is a bonus given for a touchdown.
(The system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden Game thanks to a number of improvements since we launched the site in 2003.)
Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit. Teams are always compared to one standard, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. However, when it comes to individual players, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends get compared to tight ends and wideouts to wideouts.
Other Notes:
* Each week's results carry progressively less weight to the ranking as the season goes on. So recent results mean more than old results.
* Running and passing plays are only compared to other running or passing plays, so the fact that the Packers don't run very often doesn't necessarily hurt their ranking in this analysis. What's important here is what happens when they do run - relative to league averages on a number of different variables listed above. This fact tends to aid the Packer rushing ranking here.
After Week 9, the Packers are rated by FootballOutsiders.com (http://www.footballoutsiders.com)as having the 16th most efficient rushing attack in the league. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
I wasn't familiar with their methodology, but found their results interesting, since many of them vary significantly from more simplistic conventional methods of statistical analysis. Not having seen it discussed here, here's some background, in case anyone's interested.
Football Outsiders delivers objective in-depth NFL statistical analysis to the level that Bill James has brought to baseball. Their statistical analysis starts with what they call a DVOA - Defense Adjusted Value Over Average. This means that each individual play's result is analyzed relative to a) the "situation", and b) the statistical quality of the defense played that week. All of these variables are adjusted relative to league averages. In other words, every single play is broken down to see how much "success" the play achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
The justification for the adjustments is based on the fact that the biggest variable in football is that each team plays a different schedule. By adjusting each play based on each opponent's defense's average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, they get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Offensive plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; receiving plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers.
"Success" is defined by the play's results relative to football's one objective - to get the ball to the end zone. There are two combinations of results that lead to that achievement - gaining yards and getting first downs. Plays that gain more yards are more successful, but plays that gain first downs also add "success." Down and distance statistics are also factored into the equation. In other words, a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 is more "successful" than the same 3 yard gain when it's 1st and 10.
Here are the additional details, as stated on the website...
DVOA does a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games. It uses a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.
We then expand upon that basic idea with a more complicated system of "success points." A successful play is worth one point, an unsuccessful play zero points. Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards, four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. There are fractional points in between. (For example, eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.63 "success points.") Losing four yards is -1 point, losing 12 yards is -1.8 points, an interception is -6 points, and a fumble is worth anywhere from -1.70 to -3.98 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense - no matter who actually recovers the fumble. Red zone plays are worth 20 percent more, and there is a bonus given for a touchdown.
(The system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden Game thanks to a number of improvements since we launched the site in 2003.)
Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit. Teams are always compared to one standard, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. However, when it comes to individual players, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends get compared to tight ends and wideouts to wideouts.
Other Notes:
* Each week's results carry progressively less weight to the ranking as the season goes on. So recent results mean more than old results.
* Running and passing plays are only compared to other running or passing plays, so the fact that the Packers don't run very often doesn't necessarily hurt their ranking in this analysis. What's important here is what happens when they do run - relative to league averages on a number of different variables listed above. This fact tends to aid the Packer rushing ranking here.