Bretsky
04-01-2006, 04:49 PM
Not much new to aid Favre's decision
Packers' off-season doesn't necessarily suggest improvement is near
If Brett Favre was waiting to see where the Green Bay Packers stand in terms of personnel before deciding whether to play again, it's hard to see where he'd have any better read on the situation now than he did three months ago.
On paper, the Green Bay Packers don't look any better or worse than they did Jan. 1, when they concluded their worst season in 14 years.
They stopped the process of attrition that had been taking a recent toll when they re-signed Aaron Kampman, but they haven't added anyone other than rank-and-file free agents.
They've signed some of their own free agents, notably Ahman Green, Kevin Barry, William Henderson and Najeh Davenport, but they also lost kicker Ryan Longwell and they're still not sure about the health of some of their key players.Advertisement
There's not much the Green Bay Packers can suggest to Brett Favre that next season is going to be any better than last.
And they won't know until the end of April the identity of their first-round draft pick, the one newcomer who could truly make a huge difference.
So, at this point, there's nothing to suggest to Favre that next season is going to be any better than last.
But what Favre also should have realized by now is that he could wait until after the draft, until June 1, until the start of training camp - whenever - and he wouldn't have any better idea.
In fact, he probably should have known all along there wasn't going to be a tipping point where he could ever feel confident about the Packers' chances of competing for the playoffs in the upcoming season. Not unless he actually thought there was a chance Ted Thompson was going to make a pitch for Edgerrin James or Terrell Owens or the one or two other impact players who were available in free agency.
The Packers' chances for the immediate future will be determined mostly by Favre, but also by how other players recover from injury and develop. And that's going to take at least all of training camp to play out.
Let's backtrack here for a moment and make one point clear. On the surface, there isn't much reason for optimism.
Favre is still the Packers' best player and he's 36 years old and coming off his worst season. The receiver and backfield positions remain unsettled. The middle of the offensive line is suspect. There aren't enough good players on defense. And the Packers have no idea at this point who their kicker and punter are going to be.
Who knows? They may be cursed with the second coming of Tom Birney and Steve Broussard.
For those who need a history lesson here, Birney kicked in 13 games in the 1979 and '80 seasons, and missed seven extra points. His signature moment as a kicker came on Oct. 12, 1980, when the Packers outgained the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 569 yards to 262, and settled for a 14-14 tie when Birney missed three field goals from 47 yards, 24 yards at the end of regulation and 36 yards on the final play of overtime. Broussard had three punts blocked in his first game, the 1975 season opener.
But back to the Packers' current state.
Just because they don't look any better on paper now than they did in early January doesn't mean they couldn't be competitive come this season. After all, as bad as they were last year, they still won four games and lost six others by five points or less.
But here's what it'll take for them to compete for the playoffs and when Favre or anybody else will likely learn the answers.
1) Their two key players other than Favre have been Ahman Green and Javon Walker.
Green tore his right quadriceps tendon last season. It's an injury that has typically ended careers in Green Bay. The Packers claim he's ahead of schedule in his rehab, but he should be. He's a finely tuned athlete. Being ahead of schedule and returning to his old form as a 29-year old running back are two different things.
Walker tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last season. Often, it takes a player a full season to fully recover from the injury. And if Walker holds out over a contract dispute, it's almost a cinch that it will hinder his comeback.
Donald Driver could have another good year. Samkon Gado could emerge as a replacement for Green. But unless Walker and Green play at close to previous levels, the Packers don't figure to be anything more than a .500 team, if that. And unless the Packers receive bad news about either one, it's going to take most, if not all, of training camp to gauge where they're at in their comeback efforts.
2) The Packers have to find suitable players in the middle of their offensive line, for their multi-wide receiver sets, and in their nickel and dime coverage packages. They don't have to be great players, but they can't be the liabilities they fielded last season.
The Packers may have the answers on their roster. Their young linemen might take to the new zone blocking scheme and blossom. Rod Gardner might prove to be an upgrade at wide receiver. Maybe Mike Hawkins will emerge as a corner.
But, again, the jury will be out at least through training camp.
3) The fifth draft pick has to have an impact right away.
If the Packers select offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson or a quarterback, it might be a good choice, but it's probably not going to help the Packers win many more games next season. But if it's Mario Williams or A.J. Hawk or even Vernon Davis, it could make an immediate difference.
That is, if the player pans out, and that, too, won't be clear until at least some point in training camp and maybe after the season starts.
So while the Packers are pushing Favre to make a decision, everyone else might as well sit tight and be patient because it's going to be months before you're going to get any inkling about the Packers' prospects for the coming season.
Packers' off-season doesn't necessarily suggest improvement is near
If Brett Favre was waiting to see where the Green Bay Packers stand in terms of personnel before deciding whether to play again, it's hard to see where he'd have any better read on the situation now than he did three months ago.
On paper, the Green Bay Packers don't look any better or worse than they did Jan. 1, when they concluded their worst season in 14 years.
They stopped the process of attrition that had been taking a recent toll when they re-signed Aaron Kampman, but they haven't added anyone other than rank-and-file free agents.
They've signed some of their own free agents, notably Ahman Green, Kevin Barry, William Henderson and Najeh Davenport, but they also lost kicker Ryan Longwell and they're still not sure about the health of some of their key players.Advertisement
There's not much the Green Bay Packers can suggest to Brett Favre that next season is going to be any better than last.
And they won't know until the end of April the identity of their first-round draft pick, the one newcomer who could truly make a huge difference.
So, at this point, there's nothing to suggest to Favre that next season is going to be any better than last.
But what Favre also should have realized by now is that he could wait until after the draft, until June 1, until the start of training camp - whenever - and he wouldn't have any better idea.
In fact, he probably should have known all along there wasn't going to be a tipping point where he could ever feel confident about the Packers' chances of competing for the playoffs in the upcoming season. Not unless he actually thought there was a chance Ted Thompson was going to make a pitch for Edgerrin James or Terrell Owens or the one or two other impact players who were available in free agency.
The Packers' chances for the immediate future will be determined mostly by Favre, but also by how other players recover from injury and develop. And that's going to take at least all of training camp to play out.
Let's backtrack here for a moment and make one point clear. On the surface, there isn't much reason for optimism.
Favre is still the Packers' best player and he's 36 years old and coming off his worst season. The receiver and backfield positions remain unsettled. The middle of the offensive line is suspect. There aren't enough good players on defense. And the Packers have no idea at this point who their kicker and punter are going to be.
Who knows? They may be cursed with the second coming of Tom Birney and Steve Broussard.
For those who need a history lesson here, Birney kicked in 13 games in the 1979 and '80 seasons, and missed seven extra points. His signature moment as a kicker came on Oct. 12, 1980, when the Packers outgained the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 569 yards to 262, and settled for a 14-14 tie when Birney missed three field goals from 47 yards, 24 yards at the end of regulation and 36 yards on the final play of overtime. Broussard had three punts blocked in his first game, the 1975 season opener.
But back to the Packers' current state.
Just because they don't look any better on paper now than they did in early January doesn't mean they couldn't be competitive come this season. After all, as bad as they were last year, they still won four games and lost six others by five points or less.
But here's what it'll take for them to compete for the playoffs and when Favre or anybody else will likely learn the answers.
1) Their two key players other than Favre have been Ahman Green and Javon Walker.
Green tore his right quadriceps tendon last season. It's an injury that has typically ended careers in Green Bay. The Packers claim he's ahead of schedule in his rehab, but he should be. He's a finely tuned athlete. Being ahead of schedule and returning to his old form as a 29-year old running back are two different things.
Walker tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last season. Often, it takes a player a full season to fully recover from the injury. And if Walker holds out over a contract dispute, it's almost a cinch that it will hinder his comeback.
Donald Driver could have another good year. Samkon Gado could emerge as a replacement for Green. But unless Walker and Green play at close to previous levels, the Packers don't figure to be anything more than a .500 team, if that. And unless the Packers receive bad news about either one, it's going to take most, if not all, of training camp to gauge where they're at in their comeback efforts.
2) The Packers have to find suitable players in the middle of their offensive line, for their multi-wide receiver sets, and in their nickel and dime coverage packages. They don't have to be great players, but they can't be the liabilities they fielded last season.
The Packers may have the answers on their roster. Their young linemen might take to the new zone blocking scheme and blossom. Rod Gardner might prove to be an upgrade at wide receiver. Maybe Mike Hawkins will emerge as a corner.
But, again, the jury will be out at least through training camp.
3) The fifth draft pick has to have an impact right away.
If the Packers select offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson or a quarterback, it might be a good choice, but it's probably not going to help the Packers win many more games next season. But if it's Mario Williams or A.J. Hawk or even Vernon Davis, it could make an immediate difference.
That is, if the player pans out, and that, too, won't be clear until at least some point in training camp and maybe after the season starts.
So while the Packers are pushing Favre to make a decision, everyone else might as well sit tight and be patient because it's going to be months before you're going to get any inkling about the Packers' prospects for the coming season.