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View Full Version : How Many Wins To Earn Bye Week?


Scott Campbell
11-14-2007, 04:56 PM
If they go 4-3 down the stretch, I think they have a pretty good chance to earn the bye with a record of 12-4. The Giants and Lions are both 6-3, and would have to finish 6-1 down the stretch just to catch them and get into a tie-breaker.
HarveyWallbangers
11-14-2007, 05:04 PM
If they go 4-3 down the stretch, I think they have a pretty good chance to earn the bye with a record of 12-4. The Giants and Lions are both 6-3, and would have to finish 6-1 down the stretch just to catch them and get into a tie-breaker.

Actually, we won't even have to worry about the Giants. They'd be a wild card behind Dallas. Basically, all we have to do is win the division--since the NFC West and NFC South winners will likely have horrible records. It's possible we could go 3-4 and still earn a bye--with Detroit's tough schedule looming. I guess it depends on if we can at least get a split with Detroit.
Scott Campbell
11-14-2007, 05:09 PM
I did not know that. The teams earning byes have to be a division winner?

We'd win the tie-breaker with the Giants anyway. So they'd have to go 7-0 to end up with a better record than us if we finished 4-3.
HarveyWallbangers
11-14-2007, 05:11 PM
I did not know that. The teams earning byes have to be a division winner?

Yes. The two division winners with the best records get a bye. The third plays the worst of the two wild-card teams at home. The fourth plays the best wild-card team at home. If you want to get to the Super Bowl as a wild card, you'll likely have to win three road games to do it.
Scott Campbell
11-14-2007, 05:21 PM
So we go 4-3, split with Detroit, win a home game after a bye, win a roadie against Dallas, and presto - were in the Superbowl.


I can't even believe this.
MJZiggy
11-14-2007, 05:27 PM
Ah, but if we keep winning and beat Dallas on the 29th (not to add any more pressure to that game) we don't go to Dallas, they come to us.
Freak Out
11-14-2007, 05:27 PM
I'll have to go back and look at the record I predicted...I think it was 11-5. I never even thought about a week off heading into the playoffs! In some ways it is hard to believe. :lol:
BallHawk
11-14-2007, 05:58 PM
Ah, but if we keep winning and beat Dallas on the 29th (not to add any more pressure to that game) we don't go to Dallas, they come to us.

That would be huge. Playing at home against Dallas would boost our chances of winning by a good 15%, IMO.
Merlin
11-14-2007, 06:11 PM
Ah, but if we keep winning and beat Dallas on the 29th (not to add any more pressure to that game) we don't go to Dallas, they come to us.

I like this scenario better. In fact, we have a good chance to run the tables. Detroit is one of the worst teams at converting on 3rd downs in the NFL and the Packers defense is the best at stopping teams on 3rd down (or at least it was prior to the Vikings game). Funny thing is that the Patriots aren't even in the top of the league in converting 3rd downs. Although I guess you would have o get to 3rd down to actually have to convert one!
3irty1
11-14-2007, 07:24 PM
Nobody beats the Packers at Lambeau during the playoffs.
OS PA
11-14-2007, 07:27 PM
Nobody beats the Packers at Lambeau during the playoffs.

Ask our favorite dog keeper about that one.
Partial
11-14-2007, 07:29 PM
Nobody beats the Packers at Lambeau during the playoffs.

Ask our favorite dog keeper about that one.

Beat me to it.
KYPack
11-14-2007, 07:37 PM
So we go 4-3, split with Detroit, win a home game after a bye, win a roadie against Dallas, and presto - were in the Superbowl.


I can't even believe this.

Goddamn, Scotty, I think you've got it.

I'm glad somebody started this thread. I was starting to look at the playoff/bye scenarios, but I'm too superstitiious to do it!
Tarlam!
11-15-2007, 10:57 AM
I'm glad somebody started this thread. I was starting to look at the playoff/bye scenarios, but I'm too superstitiious to do it!

Funny, I started one just 2 days ago...

http://www.packerrats.com/ratchat/viewtopic.php?t=9470
The Leaper
11-15-2007, 11:04 PM
The NFC should come down to GB/DAL. No one else is even in the discussion. Detroit is a nice story, but they don't have nearly enough on defense and aren't consistent enough on offense. The Giants defense is very shaky in the secondary...and both Dallas and Green Bay can exploit that (and have) at will. Washington? Philly? Tampa? Nah.

We have a great shot at one of the playoff byes...and a tremendous shot at making the NFC title game. However, we need to take care of games we should win the rest of the way.
OS PA
11-16-2007, 02:10 AM
Realistically we could go 3-4 with two wins at Detroit and end up with a first round bye and a second round home game.

Seattle and Tampa bay have relatively week schedules for the rest of the year, but they aren't in the same class as us, and at 5-4 each if they lose one more they'll be wild card material.

The Giants are already out of the running for first round byes, because they are the second best team in the their division, and the criteria for a first round bye is the two division winners with the best record.

Detroit is our only real roadblock when it comes to a guaranteed first round bye. They are already a three loss team, and they have the Giants, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Packers left at home as well as the Chargers and the Packers on the road. If they manage to win the majority of these last seven games they should be considered the real deal... which they are not.

Therefore, if the Packers beat the Lions twice they'll win the division, and manage to get one more win they'll finish the season at 11-5, which will give them the division, and should realistically put them ahead of the Buccaneers and Seahawks(who won't, mark my words, finish the season without another loss).


This is a WORST case scenario however, as the Packers are favored to win in five of their last seven games. The only two in which they aren't the favorite are the at the Lions on Thanksgiving and at the Cowboys the following week.

Go Pack Go.
Badgerinmaine
11-16-2007, 11:55 AM
If you want to get to the Super Bowl as a wild card, you'll likely have to win three road games to do it.
Yup. At a minimum, you'd have to win the first two on the road. Then, the only way they wouldn't have to win a third road game is if the two wild cards played each other in the title game, with the top WC team hosting the bottom one (so the 6 seed can't get any home games in the playoffs).
Carolina_Packer
11-16-2007, 12:15 PM
The other thing that's worth considering is, if the AFC is really the best conference, they get to beat up on each other the remaining 7 games and the playoffs before the Super Bowl. It's possible that team could be just too good for the NFC champ, or that AFC team could be really beat up and give them a game.