Playoff bye hopes

[sac2020]

The Packers currently have a 2 game lead over both Tampa and Seattle. If either of these teams win out and the Packers only win 2 of their remaining games, would we win or lose a tie breaker. Both Tampa and Seattle have really easy remaining schedules so I can see them winning out. I was hoping both of them would lose yesterday, but each squeaked out a win. Hopefully we'll just win 3 games and this won't even be an issue at all.

[HarveyWallbangers]

We'd lose out--if one of our 2 victories is against Oakland. Otherwise, both of those teams would have a better conference record than us. It's hard to win 4 straight in the NFL though--especially for up and down teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle. We'll see. I hope each loses once, and that would give us a cushion to lose 2 games.

[MadtownPacker]

Playoff seating is all that matters now and messing up a chance at a bye would suck, badly. The rams game will be the toughest one now that they are healthy IMO.

[Patler]

We'd lose out--if one of our 2 victories is against Oakland. Otherwise, both of those teams would have a better conference record than us. It's hard to win 4 straight in the NFL though--especially for up and down teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle.

Not only is winning four in a row difficult, winning 8 in a row is even more difficult. Both Tampa Bay and Seattle are on four game winning streaks right now. To win out they need to extend their streaks to 8 games. I suspect a let-down somewhere along the line for each, perhaps after winning their divisions. I think each has another loss in them. It's hard to keep a good but not great team on a high that long.

[The Leaper]

I agree with Patler. I am impressed with both teams...but not to the point that I think either can run the table the rest of the way. Both are certainly capable of laying on egg on any given week, especially now that they both seem to be good bets to win their division.

12 wins should be good enough to get the #2 seed...but getting 3 wins certainly should be the goal right now to eliminate all chances of a tie.

I like how things are shaping up right now in the NFC:

#4 TB
#5 NYG
-----> #1 DAL

#3 SEA
#6 ARI
-----> #2 GB

Let's keep it like that. I'd love to see Dallas have to face Tampa in the second round.

[BF4MVP]

Let's keep it like that. I'd love to see Dallas have to face Tampa in the second round.
I would cry out of happiness if the Packers took care of business in the divisional round and Tampa somehow upset Dallas. We all know how Tampa struggles when the temperature is under 40 degrees, so I would much rather face Tampa at Lambeau than Dallas in Dallas..Although I think the game would be winnable in either scenario..

[LL2]

I agree with Patler. I am impressed with both teams...but not to the point that I think either can run the table the rest of the way. Both are certainly capable of laying on egg on any given week, especially now that they both seem to be good bets to win their division.

12 wins should be good enough to get the #2 seed...but getting 3 wins certainly should be the goal right now to eliminate all chances of a tie.

I like how things are shaping up right now in the NFC:

#4 TB
#5 NYG
-----> #1 DAL

#3 SEA
#6 ARI
-----> #2 GB

Let's keep it like that. I'd love to see Dallas have to face Tampa in the second round.

So, in this scenario (if playoffs started today) we would face either SEA or ARI? I like that! I think TB or NYG would be tough in the playoffs. Let one of them knock off Dallas and the NFC Championship game is in GB!

[4and12to12and4]

I agree with Patler. I am impressed with both teams...but not to the point that I think either can run the table the rest of the way. Both are certainly capable of laying on egg on any given week, especially now that they both seem to be good bets to win their division.

12 wins should be good enough to get the #2 seed...but getting 3 wins certainly should be the goal right now to eliminate all chances of a tie.

I like how things are shaping up right now in the NFC:

#4 TB
#5 NYG
-----> #1 DAL

#3 SEA
#6 ARI
-----> #2 GB

Let's keep it like that. I'd love to see Dallas have to face Tampa in the second round.

So, in this scenario (if playoffs started today) we would face either SEA or ARI? I like that! I think TB or NYG would be tough in the playoffs. Let one of them knock off Dallas and the NFC Championship game is in GB!

Tampa won't be that difficult to beat, their offense is nowhere near as good as ours, and our defense is a bit better, much quicker. They have age there. Plus, they don't win cold weather games. I hope we play them. I'd rather play them than any North teams, or the Eagles or Skins. Sunday was perfect. All the North teams lost, except Minny who beat Detroit, leaving them both at 6-6 which is great, the Skins and Eagles lost, which is great, cuz they can beat anyone in the playoffs because of their defense, and Campbell is really coming around. The Giants we would beat, tampa we would beat and ANY West or South team, the only one that scares me is New Orleans if they sneak in. But Sundays results were perfect in my book, making the Bluemen and Cardinals having the inside track. I love it. And the Bears losing was HUGE.

[Tarlam!]

So, in this scenario (if playoffs started today) we would face either SEA or ARI? I like that!

No. We face the highest seed to come through the wildcard weekend, if we get a bye and Dallas doesn't lose at least 3 games down the stretch.

[Rastak]

I agree with Patler. I am impressed with both teams...but not to the point that I think either can run the table the rest of the way. Both are certainly capable of laying on egg on any given week, especially now that they both seem to be good bets to win their division.

12 wins should be good enough to get the #2 seed...but getting 3 wins certainly should be the goal right now to eliminate all chances of a tie.

I like how things are shaping up right now in the NFC:

#4 TB
#5 NYG
-----> #1 DAL

#3 SEA
#6 ARI
-----> #2 GB

Let's keep it like that. I'd love to see Dallas have to face Tampa in the second round.

So, in this scenario (if playoffs started today) we would face either SEA or ARI? I like that! I think TB or NYG would be tough in the playoffs. Let one of them knock off Dallas and the NFC Championship game is in GB!


If the playoffs started today I think the Vikings would be in....they have a better record than Arizona conf wise and fewer conf losses than Detroit.

Vikings-Packers rematch! I would guess you guys would drool over that one, given the arse kicking you dealt out recently to them.

There's alot of football to be played before that happens though.....who knows how it shakes out.

[The Leaper]

If the playoffs started today I think the Vikings would be in....they have a better record than Arizona conf wise and fewer conf losses than Detroit.

Sorry Ras...the Vikes are out at this point. However, the season isn't over yet, so I think you guys have a good chance to make it. I think that last spot is between you and Arizona. Arizona actually has the edge right now in the tiebreakers.

Here's a link that lists out the probabilities for each team in the NFC...merely based off the win/loss percentages of remaining opponents.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

The Packers have an 89% chance of grabbing the #2 seed.

The Vikes have a 33% chance of landing the #6 seed...and 45% chance to reach the playoffs. Their chances are better than the Cardinals to make the playoffs, even though the Cardinals get the tiebreaker as it stands right now.

The top five teams in the NFC are almost virtual locks to reach the playoffs at this point. It will be that sixth spot that probably will come down to week 17.

[Rastak]

If the playoffs started today I think the Vikings would be in....they have a better record than Arizona conf wise and fewer conf losses than Detroit.

Sorry Ras...the Vikes are out at this point. However, the season isn't over yet, so I think you guys have a good chance to make it. I think that last spot is between you and Arizona. Arizona actually has the edge right now in the tiebreakers.

Here's a link that lists out the probabilities for each team in the NFC...merely based off the win/loss percentages of remaining opponents.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

The Packers have an 89% chance of grabbing the #2 seed.

The Vikes have a 33% chance of landing the #6 seed...and 45% chance to reach the playoffs. Their chances are better than the Cardinals to make the playoffs, even though the Cardinals get the tiebreaker as it stands right now.

The top five teams in the NFC are almost virtual locks to reach the playoffs at this point. It will be that sixth spot that probably will come down to week 17.


I thought the better conf win pct would win out....isn't that the tiebreaker on a 3 way tie?


Anyway, too much football left to play.....cool link by the way.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I think Rastak is right. Minnesota would be in right now, wouldn't they? They own conference record over Arizona and Detroit.

Here's hoping that Green Bay gets the #2 seed and Minnesota gets the #6 seed. That way, if Minnesota makes the playoffs and wins at Tampa Bay or at Seattle in a wild card game, they will play at Dallas in round 2. Who knows... maybe they'd beat Dallas. Tampa Bay and Minnesota (other than Green Bay) are the only two teams among the rest of the NFC teams that I see having a decent shot at beating Dallas. I think Minnesota is in good shape. I don't see Arizona winning at Seattle and at New Orleans the next two weeks. Detroit is toast.

[The Leaper]

I think Rastak is right. Minnesota would be in right now, wouldn't they? They own conference record over Arizona and Detroit.

Nope. You are both incorrect...although I admit it was confusing to me at first as well. The fact the season isn't over makes things odd, and I think the NFL tweaked things when they altered the divisions a couple years ago.

We have a 3-way tie between teams not all in the same division. By the tiebreaking rules, the first thing you do is eliminate teams in the same division by using DIVISIONAL tiebreakers to find the best teams in each division to compare to each other. That wouldn't be applicable if the 3 teams came from different divisions. In this case, two do come from the same division (DET/MIN).

Because of that, Detroit is actually the team that moves on to be compared to Arizona...because Detroit and Minnesota have split head-to-head, but Detroit has a better DIVISIONAL record at this point (3-2 vs 2-3). Arizona then trumps Detroit based on a better conference record.

So, as of right now, Arizona would be the #6 seed and in the playoffs...Detroit would be in the #7 spot and Minnesota in the #8 spot.

The NFL has really gone a long ways to preserve the integrity of DIVISIONAL games. This is an example of how important they are. If Minnesota and Detroit finished with the same record...Minnesota could have an edge in their conference record, but it wouldn't matter in terms of the tiebreaker if Detroit had the advantage in terms of the divisional tiebreaker and they were both fighting for the same tiebreaker.

[Jerry Tagge]

Packers have 4 winnable games down the stretch. There's no reason the Packers shouldn't finish 14-2.

The only game that even gives me a slight concern is down in St. Louis. Rams have something to prove and could be dangerous if Bulger and Jackson are healthy.