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Brando19
12-04-2007, 08:04 PM
From Packers.com:
The Green Bay Packers haven't officially clinched a playoff spot yet, but they're about as close as they can get.

The playoff picture for the Packers heading into this Sunday's home game against Oakland is pretty clear - win, and they're in.

Not only that, but a victory (or a loss by the Detroit Lions, who trail Green Bay by four games with four to play) would give the Packers their first NFC North division title since 2004. And as a division champ, that would guarantee the Packers at least one home postseason game, also for the first time since 2004.

But the Packers aren't looking to simply win the division and get into the postseason. They want to give themselves the highest playoff seed they can, and they're in good position heading into the final four games of the regular season to earn a first-round bye.

All four of the division champions in the NFC - Dallas (11-1) currently leads the East, Green Bay (10-2) the North, Seattle (8-4) the West and Tampa Bay (8-4) the South - are guaranteed at least one home playoff game.

The teams with the top two records among the four division champs earn the first and second seeds, which gives them a first-round bye and a home game in the Divisional playoffs the weekend of Jan. 12-13.

The other two division champs would get the third and fourth seeds and would host a Wild Card game the weekend of Jan. 5-6.

The Packers currently trail the Cowboys by one game in the race for the No. 1 seed, which provides home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. In order to get that, the Packers would need some help, because Dallas would have to lose at least twice for the Packers to jump ahead. If the two teams finish tied, the Cowboys win the tiebreaker based on their victory over the Packers on Nov. 29.

But Green Bay controls its destiny with regard to the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. With a two-game lead over Seattle and Tampa Bay, the Packers can lock up the No. 2 seed with wins in three of its last four games, regardless of how the Seahawks and Buccaneers do.

Should either Seattle or Tampa Bay tie the Packers for the No. 2 seed, the tie would be broken based on each team's conference record. All three teams currently have 7-2 marks against NFC teams.

The New York Giants also have an 8-4 record, same as the Seahawks and Buccaneers, but unless the Giants overtake the Cowboys in the NFC East, they will not be in contention for a home game or a first-round bye. Teams that don't win their division are eligible for a Wild Card spot only, and would play that Wild Card game on the road.

Guiness
12-04-2007, 11:08 PM
I don't get how GB has not clinched...even if they were to lose out...

If Chicago were to win out, they'd have 9 wins - 1 less than we have.

If Minn wins out, they've got 10, but we beat them head to head - so we win the division.

If Det wins out, they've got 10, and we'd split the season series. Would they then get the division because of a better divisional record?

MJZiggy
12-04-2007, 11:20 PM
Yes. It goes divisional and then conference. And then I think points, right?

HarveyWallbangers
12-04-2007, 11:37 PM
If Det wins out, they've got 10, and we'd split the season series. Would they then get the division because of a better divisional record?

Not necessarily, but they could--depending on how we do against Chicago.

MJZiggy
12-05-2007, 12:00 AM
But if we beat Chicago, then the discussion's over because we would have 11 wins which they can't match.

Lurker64
12-05-2007, 08:51 AM
I don't get how GB has not clinched...even if they were to lose out...

If Chicago were to win out, they'd have 9 wins - 1 less than we have.

If Minn wins out, they've got 10, but we beat them head to head - so we win the division.

If Det wins out, they've got 10, and we'd split the season series. Would they then get the division because of a better divisional record?

At first I thought the issue was the 3-way tiebreaker, but even if Detroit and Minnesota both win out and we lose out, the first three way tiebreaker is best winning percentage among the involved teams. So Minnesota would be 1-3, Detroit would be 2-2, and Green Bay would be 3-1 so we'd win the first 3-way Tiebreaker (since it would be a tie within a division.)

But in reality, this issue is this: If Green Bay loses out and Detroit wins out, we tie the first tiebreaker (head to head) and the second tiebreaker is "Division Record." Right now Green Bay is 3-1 with games against the Bears and the Lions, and Detroit is 3-2 with games remaining against the Packers. If Green Bay loses both of those games, Detroit has a 4-2 division record and Green Bay has a 3-3 division record, so Detroit would have the division on that tiebreaker.

The solution to this? Win one game. Heck, go three better...

run pMc
12-05-2007, 09:59 AM
I think they have the division all but locked up. Hopefully they finish the job against OAK. Getting the bye is important. I think the extra week of rest would help tremendously, to say nothing of having a home game.

cpk1994
12-05-2007, 01:19 PM
If Det wins out, they've got 10, and we'd split the season series. Would they then get the division because of a better divisional record?

Not necessarily, but they could--depending on how we do against Chicago. I think you need to recheck your math. The ten wins assume thje Pack loses out whcih means a loss to the Bears. Lions division record would be 4-2. The Packers 3-3. Lions win division on tiebreaker.

4and12to12and4
12-06-2007, 12:03 AM
We've got the bye locked up. Unless we pull a '69 Cubs collapse, it's there for us. I can't see us losing the final four games. We should finish 12-4 at the least. We should be rooting for the Giants and Cardinals for the wildcards and we should make it to the NFC Championship game. And if the Giants win two playoff games, we could play them in the Championship for the NFC at home, that is what I'm hoping for.

HarveyWallbangers
12-06-2007, 12:18 AM
If we finish 12-4, there's a chance we lost the bye. Seattle and Tampa Bay are 8-4, but own the tiebreaker over us if they finish 12-4. Seattle plays Arizona, at Carolina, Baltimore at home, and at Atlanta. They are tough at home. Tampa Bay plays at Houston, Atlanta at home, at San Fran, and Carolina at home. They are tough at home also. If both teams win this weekend, one of them has a good shot at going 12-4. Let's go Cards and Texans!