motife
12-05-2007, 05:04 PM
Packers' Next Opponent: Set for freezer burn
Raiders likely in for tough time in Wisconsin cold
Posted: Dec. 4, 2007
Bob McGinn
E-MAIL
Green Bay - When the Raiders visited Lambeau Field on the day after Christmas in 1993, the temperature was 1 degree, the wind chill index was minus-20 and the players "laid down," as one member of the Raiders' staff remembered.
As 3-point favorites, the Green Bay Packers took advantage of the Raiders' collapsed offensive line for eight sacks in a 28-0 victory that clinched their first playoff berth in a full season since 1972. Those Raiders, who could barely stand up in cleats on the semi-frozen field compared to the traction-ready Packers wearing turf shoes, finished 10-6 and won a playoff game.
On Sunday, the Packers (10-2) are 10½-point favorites to defeat Oakland, which is at the zenith of a 4-8 season after victories over Kansas City (20-17) and Denver (34-20).
"The Packers will slaughter them," an assistant coach for an AFC West team said. "Oakland doesn't have anybody who can throw the ball. If the Green Bay defense can shut down their run with a seven-man front, the DBs will take over and have a field day.
"But if they let Justin Fargas have a big day, then Green Bay could be in for a long day. The Raiders are on a little bit of a roll. They've got a solid defense."
Green Bay is 27-4 in regular-season games in December and January at Lambeau Field during Brett Favre's 249-game streak as a starter.
"I think Green Bay will get them, I really do," another AFC West assistant said. "First of all, they've got to travel back there, and the weather is going to be (expletive). It will be even harder for them to focus. They ain't used to that. If Green Bay scores early, they'll fold it up."
The forecast for Sunday calls for a 40% chance of snow with a high of 35.
"I just can't imagine many teams can challenge the Packers now," a personnel man for a recent Raiders foe said. "The Raiders may have their cars parked in LeMans position back in Oakland (for) when the season is over.
"I do think they'll play hard. I don't think they've lost their will to win. They've been kind of a disjointed team for a number of years, but it's kind of stabilized where they are. I think the mentality of the team is a little different than it's been the last two, three years."
GAME-BREAKER
RB Justin Fargas was mostly a tease for Michigan and Southern California, then during his first four seasons in Oakland after arriving as a third-round pick. Injuries and lack of focus limited him to just one 100-yard game from 2003-'06. But since replacing LaMont Jordan as the starter five games ago, he has rushed 123 times for 530 yards (4.3).
OFFENSE
SCHEME
The coordinator is Greg Knapp, formerly in San Francisco and Atlanta, but coach Lane Kiffin calls the plays. Kiffin employs a West Coast passing game with a zone-run attack in a no-frills operation. Usually, Kiffin uses an I-formation on early downs (50.8% overall run) and one back with three WRs on passing downs. They rank tied for 20th in turnovers (26), 21st in points (19.5) and tied for 21st in yards (308.3).
RECEIVERS
Flanker Ronald Curry (6 feet 2 inches, 210 pounds) has overcome a blown Achilles' tendon and reconstructive knee surgery. He's athletic and goes hard for the ball, but didn't have speed (4.64 seconds in the 40-yard dash) even during his years as a QB at North Carolina. Split end Jerry Porter (6-2, 220) has good hands and a big body, but is even slower than Curry and isn't precise when running routes. Tim Dwight (5-8, 185), cut by the Jets Aug. 27 and signed Oct. 31, quickly supplanted the departed Mike Williams as No. 3. He understands defenses, knows how to run routes and is a good catcher. Still, he's small and isn't a real speed demon anymore, either. Rookie TE Zach Miller (6-4½, 255), a second-round pick, isn't bad. Just 21, he has fine hands, so-so speed (4.82) and blocking ability, and adequate feel on routes. Backup John Madsen (6-4½, 240) can't block at all, but is fast (4.59), smart and confident.
OFFENSIVE LINE
None of the five is better than an average starter at his position or a total liability. LT Barry Sims (6-5, 300), basically a starter since 1999, is a finesse player with barely-adequate athleticism. By grabbing and holding, he generally holds his own against all but elite opposition. LG Robert Gallery (6-7, 325), the second pick in '04, was a bust at LT and RT, but has been somewhat better inside. He can engulf people with his bulk, but might be too tall for guard, lacks some strength and is clumsy blocking in space. C Jeremy Newberry (6-5, 315) left San Francisco in March after three injury-shortened seasons (knees) for $1.5 million (no signing bonus) over one year. He's powerful, smart and nasty, but can't run at all and makes too many mistakes. RG Cooper Carlisle (6-5, 295), a starter in Denver in 2005 and '06, moves and thinks well and isn't a bad athlete. Yet, he can be overpowered. RT Paul McQuistan (6-6, 315) will make his third start after the poorest starter, Cornell Green, went down with a foot injury. McQuistan, a third-round pick in '06, is strong, but is new to the position.
QUARTERBACKS
Josh McCown (6-3½, 215) played well against Denver, improved his starting record to 2-4 and probably will play ahead of Daunte Culpepper (6-4, 260) and rookie JaMarcus Russell (6-5½, 262), the No. 1 pick in the draft. McCown, a former Cardinal and Lion, makes poor decisions as a passer and runner, tends to get too excited and has an average arm. He is athletic. Culpepper, also 2-4, doesn't look all the way back from knee problems. He was starting to come on before suffering a thigh injury in practice last week. The rifle-armed Russell, who didn't sign until Sept. 12, played 16 snaps Sunday in his pro debut. It's possible that Kiffin won't expose him in the cold.
RUNNING BACKS
Justin Fargas (6-1, 220) is a reckless, rugged runner bent on resurrecting his injury-plagued career. He's quick to the line, is able to make one man miss, has good speed and catches well. LaMont Jordan (5-10, 230), a 1,025-yard rusher in '05, is powerful and still has a burst. Former Colt Dominic Rhodes (5-9, 205) has fallen from favor. At FB, former Falcon Justin Griffith (5-11, 230) is the better runner and receiver, but rookie Oren O'Neal (5-11½, 245) is the better blocker.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Rob Ryan, in his fourth season as coordinator, played a considerable amount of Cover 2 on Sunday. For the most part, he uses man-to-man coverage featuring press outside. The Raiders' problem is an inability to stop the run (30th, yield of 148.0). They rank 17th in points allowed (21.7), tied for 18th in takeaways (21) and 19th in yards allowed (334.1).
DEFENSIVE LINE
Former Eagle LE Derrick Burgess (6-2½, 260), who had 16 sacks in '05, is quick, fast, fairly strong and a relentless rusher. He can play the run with leverage but usually doesn't. Rookie RE Jay Richardson (6-5½, 280), a fifth-round pick, took over when Tommy Kelly was lost for the season in Week 7 with a knee injury. Richardson isn't a pass rusher, but stops the run and plays hard. Speed-rushing RE Chris Clemons (6-3, 243) flies off the edge on passing downs and is developing counter moves. DT Warren Sapp (6-1, 280) is 35 or so pounds lighter and not nearly what he was in Tampa Bay. He's still quick off the ball and will flash five or six times each week, but he also tires and gets shoved around. NT Gerard Warren (6-4, 325), the third pick by Cleveland in '01, arrived Aug. 20 from Denver for a fifth-round pick. He's capable of a great rush one down, then zip on the next. Former Packers NT Terdell Sands (6-7, 335), who relieves Warren, has tremendous natural strength and is hard to move.
LINEBACKERS
SLB Thomas Howard (6-3, 240), a second-round pick in '06, is a superior athlete with 4.42 speed. He probably can run and cover as well as any LB in the league, and makes lots of athletic plays. However, his instincts and take-on are just mediocre. MLB Kirk Morrison (6-1, 240) is struggling lately along with the run defense. He's smart, quick and aggressive, but isn't all that fast (4.75) and will play out of control. WLB Robert Thomas (6-0, 235), another ex-Packer, played well enough after Sam Williams was injured in Week 4 that he has held the job. Thomas is a pretty good athlete, but makes too many mistakes.
SECONDARY
CB Nnamdi Asomugha (6-2½, 210), the 31st pick in '03, is having a Pro Bowl year after struggling from 2003-'05. Besides having superior size and very good speed, he has a great attitude and overcame his deficiencies. Teams almost never challenge him. The Raiders are loaded at CB with No. 2 Stanford Routt (6-1½, 195), a second-round pick in '05, and No. 3 Fabian Washington (5-10½, 185), the 23rd pick in '05. Routt has blazing speed (4.3), is improving in all phases and plays the slot in nickel. Washington, the starter over Routt until Week 3, also has tremendous speed and can be a ballhawk. Michael Huff (6-0, 205), the seventh pick in '06, is playing SS, but probably would be better suited for FS or CB. Huff isn't a heavy hitter, but generally gets people down. He also has great speed (4.35) and is very good in press-man coverage. FS Stuart Schweigert (6-2, 210), a 2½-year starter, tackled so poorly and gave up so many big plays that he was replaced in Week 11 by free agent Hiram Eugene (6-2, 200). Eugene has 4.53 speed and respectable athletic ability, tackles adequately and has been an upgrade.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Shane Lechler, a Pro Bowl punter in 2001 and '04, is threatening to break the NFL record for best net with an average of 43.9 yards. K Sebastian Janikowski, the 17th pick in '00, probably still has the strongest leg in the league. As usual, he's starting to line-drive some kickoffs. Dwight is solid returning punts KR Chris Carr hits it hard, but lacks speed. LB Ricky Brown leads big, fast coverage units.
Raiders likely in for tough time in Wisconsin cold
Posted: Dec. 4, 2007
Bob McGinn
Green Bay - When the Raiders visited Lambeau Field on the day after Christmas in 1993, the temperature was 1 degree, the wind chill index was minus-20 and the players "laid down," as one member of the Raiders' staff remembered.
As 3-point favorites, the Green Bay Packers took advantage of the Raiders' collapsed offensive line for eight sacks in a 28-0 victory that clinched their first playoff berth in a full season since 1972. Those Raiders, who could barely stand up in cleats on the semi-frozen field compared to the traction-ready Packers wearing turf shoes, finished 10-6 and won a playoff game.
On Sunday, the Packers (10-2) are 10½-point favorites to defeat Oakland, which is at the zenith of a 4-8 season after victories over Kansas City (20-17) and Denver (34-20).
"The Packers will slaughter them," an assistant coach for an AFC West team said. "Oakland doesn't have anybody who can throw the ball. If the Green Bay defense can shut down their run with a seven-man front, the DBs will take over and have a field day.
"But if they let Justin Fargas have a big day, then Green Bay could be in for a long day. The Raiders are on a little bit of a roll. They've got a solid defense."
Green Bay is 27-4 in regular-season games in December and January at Lambeau Field during Brett Favre's 249-game streak as a starter.
"I think Green Bay will get them, I really do," another AFC West assistant said. "First of all, they've got to travel back there, and the weather is going to be (expletive). It will be even harder for them to focus. They ain't used to that. If Green Bay scores early, they'll fold it up."
The forecast for Sunday calls for a 40% chance of snow with a high of 35.
"I just can't imagine many teams can challenge the Packers now," a personnel man for a recent Raiders foe said. "The Raiders may have their cars parked in LeMans position back in Oakland (for) when the season is over.
"I do think they'll play hard. I don't think they've lost their will to win. They've been kind of a disjointed team for a number of years, but it's kind of stabilized where they are. I think the mentality of the team is a little different than it's been the last two, three years."
GAME-BREAKER
RB Justin Fargas was mostly a tease for Michigan and Southern California, then during his first four seasons in Oakland after arriving as a third-round pick. Injuries and lack of focus limited him to just one 100-yard game from 2003-'06. But since replacing LaMont Jordan as the starter five games ago, he has rushed 123 times for 530 yards (4.3).
OFFENSE
SCHEME
The coordinator is Greg Knapp, formerly in San Francisco and Atlanta, but coach Lane Kiffin calls the plays. Kiffin employs a West Coast passing game with a zone-run attack in a no-frills operation. Usually, Kiffin uses an I-formation on early downs (50.8% overall run) and one back with three WRs on passing downs. They rank tied for 20th in turnovers (26), 21st in points (19.5) and tied for 21st in yards (308.3).
RECEIVERS
Flanker Ronald Curry (6 feet 2 inches, 210 pounds) has overcome a blown Achilles' tendon and reconstructive knee surgery. He's athletic and goes hard for the ball, but didn't have speed (4.64 seconds in the 40-yard dash) even during his years as a QB at North Carolina. Split end Jerry Porter (6-2, 220) has good hands and a big body, but is even slower than Curry and isn't precise when running routes. Tim Dwight (5-8, 185), cut by the Jets Aug. 27 and signed Oct. 31, quickly supplanted the departed Mike Williams as No. 3. He understands defenses, knows how to run routes and is a good catcher. Still, he's small and isn't a real speed demon anymore, either. Rookie TE Zach Miller (6-4½, 255), a second-round pick, isn't bad. Just 21, he has fine hands, so-so speed (4.82) and blocking ability, and adequate feel on routes. Backup John Madsen (6-4½, 240) can't block at all, but is fast (4.59), smart and confident.
OFFENSIVE LINE
None of the five is better than an average starter at his position or a total liability. LT Barry Sims (6-5, 300), basically a starter since 1999, is a finesse player with barely-adequate athleticism. By grabbing and holding, he generally holds his own against all but elite opposition. LG Robert Gallery (6-7, 325), the second pick in '04, was a bust at LT and RT, but has been somewhat better inside. He can engulf people with his bulk, but might be too tall for guard, lacks some strength and is clumsy blocking in space. C Jeremy Newberry (6-5, 315) left San Francisco in March after three injury-shortened seasons (knees) for $1.5 million (no signing bonus) over one year. He's powerful, smart and nasty, but can't run at all and makes too many mistakes. RG Cooper Carlisle (6-5, 295), a starter in Denver in 2005 and '06, moves and thinks well and isn't a bad athlete. Yet, he can be overpowered. RT Paul McQuistan (6-6, 315) will make his third start after the poorest starter, Cornell Green, went down with a foot injury. McQuistan, a third-round pick in '06, is strong, but is new to the position.
QUARTERBACKS
Josh McCown (6-3½, 215) played well against Denver, improved his starting record to 2-4 and probably will play ahead of Daunte Culpepper (6-4, 260) and rookie JaMarcus Russell (6-5½, 262), the No. 1 pick in the draft. McCown, a former Cardinal and Lion, makes poor decisions as a passer and runner, tends to get too excited and has an average arm. He is athletic. Culpepper, also 2-4, doesn't look all the way back from knee problems. He was starting to come on before suffering a thigh injury in practice last week. The rifle-armed Russell, who didn't sign until Sept. 12, played 16 snaps Sunday in his pro debut. It's possible that Kiffin won't expose him in the cold.
RUNNING BACKS
Justin Fargas (6-1, 220) is a reckless, rugged runner bent on resurrecting his injury-plagued career. He's quick to the line, is able to make one man miss, has good speed and catches well. LaMont Jordan (5-10, 230), a 1,025-yard rusher in '05, is powerful and still has a burst. Former Colt Dominic Rhodes (5-9, 205) has fallen from favor. At FB, former Falcon Justin Griffith (5-11, 230) is the better runner and receiver, but rookie Oren O'Neal (5-11½, 245) is the better blocker.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Rob Ryan, in his fourth season as coordinator, played a considerable amount of Cover 2 on Sunday. For the most part, he uses man-to-man coverage featuring press outside. The Raiders' problem is an inability to stop the run (30th, yield of 148.0). They rank 17th in points allowed (21.7), tied for 18th in takeaways (21) and 19th in yards allowed (334.1).
DEFENSIVE LINE
Former Eagle LE Derrick Burgess (6-2½, 260), who had 16 sacks in '05, is quick, fast, fairly strong and a relentless rusher. He can play the run with leverage but usually doesn't. Rookie RE Jay Richardson (6-5½, 280), a fifth-round pick, took over when Tommy Kelly was lost for the season in Week 7 with a knee injury. Richardson isn't a pass rusher, but stops the run and plays hard. Speed-rushing RE Chris Clemons (6-3, 243) flies off the edge on passing downs and is developing counter moves. DT Warren Sapp (6-1, 280) is 35 or so pounds lighter and not nearly what he was in Tampa Bay. He's still quick off the ball and will flash five or six times each week, but he also tires and gets shoved around. NT Gerard Warren (6-4, 325), the third pick by Cleveland in '01, arrived Aug. 20 from Denver for a fifth-round pick. He's capable of a great rush one down, then zip on the next. Former Packers NT Terdell Sands (6-7, 335), who relieves Warren, has tremendous natural strength and is hard to move.
LINEBACKERS
SLB Thomas Howard (6-3, 240), a second-round pick in '06, is a superior athlete with 4.42 speed. He probably can run and cover as well as any LB in the league, and makes lots of athletic plays. However, his instincts and take-on are just mediocre. MLB Kirk Morrison (6-1, 240) is struggling lately along with the run defense. He's smart, quick and aggressive, but isn't all that fast (4.75) and will play out of control. WLB Robert Thomas (6-0, 235), another ex-Packer, played well enough after Sam Williams was injured in Week 4 that he has held the job. Thomas is a pretty good athlete, but makes too many mistakes.
SECONDARY
CB Nnamdi Asomugha (6-2½, 210), the 31st pick in '03, is having a Pro Bowl year after struggling from 2003-'05. Besides having superior size and very good speed, he has a great attitude and overcame his deficiencies. Teams almost never challenge him. The Raiders are loaded at CB with No. 2 Stanford Routt (6-1½, 195), a second-round pick in '05, and No. 3 Fabian Washington (5-10½, 185), the 23rd pick in '05. Routt has blazing speed (4.3), is improving in all phases and plays the slot in nickel. Washington, the starter over Routt until Week 3, also has tremendous speed and can be a ballhawk. Michael Huff (6-0, 205), the seventh pick in '06, is playing SS, but probably would be better suited for FS or CB. Huff isn't a heavy hitter, but generally gets people down. He also has great speed (4.35) and is very good in press-man coverage. FS Stuart Schweigert (6-2, 210), a 2½-year starter, tackled so poorly and gave up so many big plays that he was replaced in Week 11 by free agent Hiram Eugene (6-2, 200). Eugene has 4.53 speed and respectable athletic ability, tackles adequately and has been an upgrade.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Shane Lechler, a Pro Bowl punter in 2001 and '04, is threatening to break the NFL record for best net with an average of 43.9 yards. K Sebastian Janikowski, the 17th pick in '00, probably still has the strongest leg in the league. As usual, he's starting to line-drive some kickoffs. Dwight is solid returning punts KR Chris Carr hits it hard, but lacks speed. LB Ricky Brown leads big, fast coverage units.