PFW : notes 12/11

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Green Bay at St. Louis

GB 3rd OFF; STL 19th DEF
GB 24th RUN; STL 21st VS. RUN
GB 2nd PASS; STL 17th VS. PASS
GB 4th PTS; STL 26th PTS ALLOWED
STL 27th OFF; GB 9th DEF
STL 26th RUN; GB 11th VS. RUN
STL 17th PASS; GB 16th VS. PASS
STL 29th PTS; GB 6th PTS ALLOWED
STL 24th TO/TA; GB 9th TO/TA

The teams last met last season, with the Rams winning 23-20 at Green Bay.

STL WR Torry Holt has racked up more than 1,000 yards receiving in the last 8 seasons.

GB has racked up 400 yards of offense or more in 7 of its last 11 games.

GB RB Ryan Grant is averaging 111.6 rushing yards in his last five games.

GB WR Greg Jennings has a TD catch in 6-of-7 games and has 11 TD catches on the season.

STL RB Steven Jackson has had at least 100 combined yards in his last 5 games.

[motife]

Rookie of the Year Meter

Edwards stealing the thunder of Russell, Quinn

By Matt Sohn
Dec. 11, 2007


In the months leading up to last season’s draft, one particular debate dominated all draft-related NFL talk. From the newspaper pages to the airwaves to the sports bars, the question regarding which quarterback should be taken No. 1 overall took center stage. There were two choices. The first was the rocket-armed gunslinger from LSU, JaMarcus Russell. There was a lot to like about him, but no attribute was more attractive than a right arm with strength that reached almost Biblical proportions.

The other choice was the fiery leader from one of the most storied college programs in the country. There was a lot to like about Brady Quinn, too. He also was strong, though not Russell-strong, and was believed to be years ahead of the learning curve because of his collegiate indoctrination in Charlie Weis’ NFL-inspired offense.

Russell ended up going first, but the expectations for each remained similar. Few expected the two of them to start immediately, but most believed that they would assume the reins by at least midseason. It hasn’t happened. Russell has appeared in just one game where he threw seven passes. Quinn’s envious. The only times he has been spotted since being crowed the savior of the Browns has been tossing Subway sandwiches from a float in a TV commercial.

Meanwhile, up in the NFL periphery in Buffalo, a middling prospect from a moribund college program has not only beaten out a 2004 first-rounder for the starting QB job, but has the Bills on the brink of the playoffs. But go back to Draft Day, and you would be mocked for even suggesting that Trent Edwards of Stanford would emerge as the premier rookie quarterback in the league. Quinn and Russell may very well wind up having better careers than him, but for now, Edwards holds the ultimate trump card: He has actually produced.

Because he split time with J.P. Losman for much of the season, he’s not going to make a serious push for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, but as far as rookie quarterbacks go, he’s the only one to do much of anything.

1. 49ers LB Patrick Willis
Season stats (13 games): 136 tackles, one sack, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery
Week 14 stats: eight tackles, one fumble recovery
Last week’s ranking: 1
Stock: Steady
In the clash of two of the best rookies to hit the NFL in years, it was Willis who emerged victorious — even though his team got clobbered. It wasn’t Willis’ best game, but it was Adrian Peterson’s worst.

2. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson
Season stats (11 games): 198 carries for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, 16 receptions for 230 yards and one touchdown, three lost fumbles
Week 14 stats: 14 carries for three yards
Last week’s ranking: 2
Stock: Falling
Peterson’s numbers from Sunday read more like a punch line than a stat line. You would figure that a 14-carry, three-yard outing could be attributed to a boatload of O-line injuries — or some other limiting factor — but Chester Taylor managed to explode for an 84-yard TD run. This was just a bad, bad game.

3. Jets LB David Harris
Season stats (13 games): 100 tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery
Week 14 stats: nine tackles
Last week’s ranking: 3
Stock: Steady
Jamal Lewis and the Browns' O-line had its way with the Jets’ defense on Sunday. Harris did all he could, and once again was the best defender on the field, but the guy just doesn’t have enough around him. It’s scary to think what he would be capable of in a 4-3 defense with a pair of lane-clogging D-tackles in front of him.

4. Panthers LB Jonathan Beason
Season stats (13 games): 110 tackles, one interception, one fumble recovery
Week 14 stats: 12 tackles
Last week’s ranking: 4
Stock: Steady
Much like Harris, he’s one of the few defenders on his team inspiring with his play. Of all the great University of Miami (Fla.) linebackers to play in the NFL, none has gotten off to a more torrid start than Beason.

5. Browns OT Joe Thomas
Last week’s ranking: 5
Stock: Steady
Take Thomas away from the Browns and what do you have? Still a good offense, but nowhere near as proficient a unit as they’re currently showcasing. Thomas and bash-buddy Eric Steinbach have justified the Browns’ decision to sink such exorbitant dollars into the left side of their offensive line. Much like the Rams did with Orlando Pace, the Browns are using Thomas as a cornerstone of their offensive evolution.

6. Jets CB Darrelle Revis
Season stats (13 games): 75 tackles, two interceptions, one forced fumble, 16 passes defensed
Week 14 stats: three tackles
Last week’s ranking: 6
Stock: Steady
For the most part, Revis held his own again Braylon Edwards. He did get bested on a third-quarter fade pattern for a touchdown, but those things happen. Partially because of a solid Jets secondary, the Browns were clearly more interested in pounding away in the running game.

7. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe
Season stats (13 games): 56 receptions for 821 yards and four touchdowns
Week 14 stats: two receptions for 35 yards
Last week’s ranking: 7
Stock: Steady
This is a team, and an offense, in transition. Under the Chiefs’ circumstances, Bowe’s consistency has been nice to see. What he needs now is a quarterback capable of getting him the ball, and an offensive line capable of protecting the passer.

8. Dolphins C Samson Satele
Last week’s ranking: 10
Stock: Steady
Satele helped pave the way for a pair of Samkon Gado touchdown scampers. Considering the Dolphins were without Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Jesse Chatman, the fact that they mustered any type of ground production is commendable. The more you watch him, the more he grows on you.

9. Redskins S LaRon Landry
Season stats (13 games): 82 tackles, 1½ sacks, one fumble recovery
Week 14 stats: five tackles
Last week’s ranking: 8
Stock: Steady
After looking like he might fall behind the Bucs’ Tanard Jackson and the Jags’ Reggie Nelson in the rookie safety pecking order, Landry has picked up his game. He made some nice plays in coverage against the Bears.

10. Bills RB Marshawn Lynch
Season stats (10 games): 219 carries for 858 yards and six touchdowns, 15 receptions for 120 yards, one lost fumble
Week 14 stats: 23 carries for 107 yards, one lost fumble
Last week’s ranking: Honorable mention
Stock: Rising
Yeah, it was against the woeful Dolphins “D,” but rushing for 107 yards on a bum ankle is still quite the feat. On the negative side, you have to wonder when offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild will make him part of the passing game.

Honorable mention (In no particular order)

Bills QB Trent Edwards: Announced his arrival with a four-touchdown performance.

Texans DT Amobi Okoye: No more enigmatic rookie in the league.

Buccaneers S Tanard Jackson: The fourth-rounder is possibly the biggest steal of the draft.

Giants CB Aaron Ross: Nice to see him back on the field.

Vikings WR Sidney Rice: Part of a stellar Vikings rookie class.

Bears TE Greg Olsen: Producing despite continuous QB issues.

Colts DT Ed Johnson: Helped stifle Willis McGahee.

Jaguars S Reggie Nelson: Didn’t do much on Sunday, but didn’t need to.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson: Still has a lot to learn.

Broncos RB Selvin Young: Riddled the Chiefs to the tune of 156 yards.

Best of the rest (In no particular order)

Ravens OG Ben Grubbs
Chargers S Eric Weddle
Buccaneers OG Arron Sears
Packers WR James Jones
Rams DT Adam Carriker
Vikings DE Brian Robison
Cowboys PK Nick Folk
Bengals CB Leon Hall
Lions S Gerald Alexander
Raiders TE Zach Miller

[motife]

Week 14 MVP Meter

Is it too early to start looking to next year?

By Eric Edholm
Dec. 11, 2007


There are still three weeks of regular-season football, and, sure, plenty can happen. But short of getting stabbed by a jilted lover or getting t-boned on Route One (the far more likely disaster of the two) coming home from practice, Tom Brady is winning the award. We live in a statistical era, and Brady is putting up stupid numbers.

Forty-five touchdowns. Five interceptions. On his way to nearly 5,000 passing yards. He needs to average 302 yards in the final three to surpass 5K, and he needs to average 330 a game to pass Dan Marino’s record of 5,084 in a season. And for those who don’t care for the individual stuff, well, Brady’s team is 13-0.

And as great as Tony Romo, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have been this season — their teams have a combined record of 34-5, with two of those losses coming to the Patriots — they just can’t top Brady right now. So what about next season?

Well, of course, Brady zooms right to the top of the list. And you’ve got Romo and Manning. Nothing against Favre, but he can’t match this magic again. Can he? For now, we’ll say he can’t (words to be eaten, surely).

Of course, we can look down our list and choose from them. But Randy Moss is a free agent and could end up somewhere else next season. Either way, he’s highly unlikely to match his ridiculous projections — he’s on pace for 101 catches, 1,556 yards and 23 TDs. The same — except for the free-agent status — can be said for Terrell Owens, a physical marvel, but a 33-year-old one at that. His projections: 91 grabs for 1,563 yards and 17 TDs.

Certainly there will be some Adrian Peterson sentiment. The man figures only to get better, and if he can stay healthy for a season, he could put a serious scare into Eric Dickerson’s season record of 2,105 yards. And with some people perhaps suspect of the video-game passing numbers put up around the league, breaking a rushing record would be the kind of salt-of-the-earth achievement that could vault him to the top of the MVP voting.

But what about Ben Roethlisberger? He has MVP charisma and appears to be a different man and player after last year’s adversity. Though the Steelers are not in the Patriots’ category now, they clearly are close. Sunday’s loss didn’t feel like a blowout to many who watched. And Ben might be the perfect mix of moxie, skill and guts that could overcome whatever statistical shortcomings he might have stacked up against a Brady, a Romo or a Manning.

Plus, people like voting for new guys.

1. Patriots QB Tom Brady — After a few errant passes early vs. Pittsburgh, some actually worried. Uh, no.

2. Cowboys QB Tony Romo — He keeps this up and he’ll be a bigger figure in Dallas than Troy Aikman. Seriously.

3. Colts QB Peyton Manning — How good a year has Reggie Wayne had? Career good.

4. Packers QB Brett Favre — Wonder if Ryan Grant is the guy who, indirectly, extends Favre’s career.

5. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger — Played well in the loss, didn’t he?

6. Patriots WR Randy Moss — Scary: He’s three TDs from tying Jerry Rice’s season mark of 22.

7. Cowboys WR Terrell Owens — Needs to get over Bill Parcells when people interview him.

8. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook — Another great statistical game, but that third-quarter fumble was a back-breaker.

9. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson — The educated guess is he’ll light up the Bears (again) after struggling Sunday.

10. Cowboys OLB DeMarcus Ware — Had only one official QB pressure in the game, but he picked a good time to get it.

Others worth mentioning: Colts RB Joseph Addai, Ravens RB Willis McGahee, Seahawks DE Patrick Kerney, Titans DT Albert Haynesworth, Browns QB Derek Anderson, Colts S Bob Sanders, Jaguars QB David Garrard, Chiefs DE Jared Allen, Browns WR Braylon Edwards, Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck, Steelers LB James Harrison, Seahawks OLB Julian Peterson, Packers DE Aaron Kampman, Patriots CB Asante Samuel, Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald, Patriots WR Wes Welker

[motife]

Burnt toast

Patriots silence Steelers' Smith in quest for perfection

By Nolan Nawrocki
Dec. 10, 2007


As if the two best teams in football needed any more motivation, Steelers second-year safety Anthony Smith and Detroit QB Jon Kitna supplied more, chirping too much during the week — Smith guaranteeing a victory over New England and Kitna calling out Cowboys CB Terence Newman, one of the top cornerbacks in the league.

The veteran Kitna came close to backing up his words, holding a lead on the Cowboys until the final seconds of the game and seeing Calvin Johnson come free from Newman on some double moves, but Tony Romo rallied Dallas to an impressive come-from-behind victory.

Smith, on the other hand, awoke a sleeping bear. The Patriots, who barely escaped past Philadelphia and Baltimore in prime-time slots the previous two weeks and seemed to be showing signs of weakness offensively, came out firing, set on attacking the overaggressive, overconfident Smith and Tyrone Carter, who was filling in for the injured Troy Polamalu.

Twice, the Patriots were able to suck the safeties up into the line on play-action and capitalize on Smith’s mistakes, as Randy Moss ran right by him and came wide open on a post route for a 63-yard TD in the second quarter, opening up a 14-3 lead. The second time, with the Patriots holding only a four-point lead after the half, the Patriots attacked again. Tom Brady and Moss executed a double lateral pass to perfection, drawing Smith upfield just enough for Jabar Gaffney to streak past him and catch a 56-yard bomb from Brady.

For Smith, it should serve as a lesson in humility. For anyone who thinks the Patriots did not feel slighted by his words, all that was needed to see was Brady after the Patriots’ first TD of the night, when he began jawing back at Smith and Steelers OLB James Harrison, no doubt letting Smith hear how foolish he was.

Note to the Steelers — confidence is letting your performance do the talking on the field.

Packers RB Ryan Grant and Broncos RB Selvin Young both entered the league as undrafted free agents but have found success in the zone-blocking scheme employed by both teams, culminating with career-high 156-yard efforts in Week 14 to lead all rushers. Grant has given the Packers' offense the balance it needs as it heads into the playoffs. He has nice vision, is becoming more decisive reading blocks and runs with good body lean and strength to wear down defenses, as he did to the Raiders. He is competitive — the single most important trait in a back — and has been running like a warrior. With the running game humming against the Raiders, the Packers looked as good as they have all season.

It doesn’t matter if this is Cam Cameron’s first year in Miami. It’s Randy Mueller’s third, and it’s simply time to clean house. The real problem, after the Dolphins made an average Buffalo offense look like world-beaters, sure looks like a void in leadership. Nick Saban got off to a very slow start himself a year ago, falling behind 1-6 to start the season, but Saban was able to rally the team behind its veteran leaders, especially Jason Taylor, and win four in a row, including impressive wins over the eventual NFC-champion Bears and powerful Patriots. This Dolphins team shows little sign of life.

Miami's plans to address the QB position, acquiring injury-prone Trent Green and drafting John Beck, have produced poor results. Joey Porter had nearly as many sacks the one year in which he did not start as a rookie (two) as he has had this year, (2½) and he was drastically overpaid. And the passing game has sputtered without traded WRs Wes Welker — who is having his finest year as a pro for New England — and Chris Chambers, who was critical in the Chargers’ come-from-behind victory over the Titans. Since Mueller and Cameron have been placed in power, the talent level has watered down and the wins have vanished. It’s time to restore pride to South Florida, and with the first overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft on the way, owner Wayne Huizenga cannot afford to screw it up. Keeping the status quo will wind up costing his franchise more than cutting his losses now and buying out the contracts of poor decision-makers.

If I’m an NFL club looking for a running back, I’m perusing the depth-chart rungs of San Diego, Tampa Bay or the New York Giants. A lot of credit belongs to the offensive lines of each group. San Diego recognizes the importance of toughness in the trenches and has a group of guys that will play nasty. Tampa Bay’s line, after drafting a number of linemen in recent years, is as good as it has been in at least the past three years. And the Giants have an agile group that may be the best in the league working downfield in space. That said, whether it’s Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward or Reuben Droughns, they get the job done — and just think, they had Ryan Grant on the roster earlier in the season. San Diego has arguably the league’s top back —LaDainian Tomlinson — and top backup — Michael Turner. And Tampa Bay has been winning with undrafted free agent Earnest Graham. There is nothing special about him, but he is competive, a trait that seems to be easy for Jon Gruden to identify.

In three of the past four games, Seahawks DE Patrick Kerney has notched three sacks and now leads the league in the category with 13½. There may be no one better at taking advantage of opponents’ injuries, especially late in the game, when he has been at his best. He abused an injured Fred Miller vs. Chicago, feasted on a depleted Rams O-line and was able to run by Arizona's Levi Brown, who did not appear to be at full form.

Vikings second-year QB Tavaris Jackson has looked improved down the stretch. With Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson in the backfield and opponents forced to stack eight men in the box, as the Niners often did, the passing game should open up with more single coverage. Nonetheless, Jackson was firing BBs on a laser, has begun to look more in control of the game and is avoiding turnovers. As long as he continues to manage games like he did vs. the struggling Niners, the Vikings could be a surprise wild-card contender, especially with how opportunistic their defense has been.

Typically, backs wear down with age, but at 32, Jaguars RB Fred Taylor appears to be getting better. Maurice Drew-Jones initially appeared to be a replacement, but instead, he has given Taylor’s legs new life, handling a lot of the tough, between-the-tackles carries and lightening Taylor’s load. In turn, Taylor has been peaking late in the season, showing off his combination of strength and explosiveness as he bounced off Panthers tacklers and accelerated in the open field.

Buccaneers QB Luke McCown was a combined 17-of-18 for 243 yards in the first quarter the past two weeks — impressive even with a high-percentage, low-risk selection of play-calling that was well-designed to build his confidence.

Colts OLT Tony Ugoh struggled before he took a five-game hiatus with an injured groin, but since he returned, he has looked worse. Jaguars DE Paul Spicer ragdolled him last week, and the Ravens’ defensive line had its way with him again this week, as Terrell Suggs and Dwan Edwards forced Peyton Manning to roll to his right more than usual after they ran by and over Ugoh. If Manning did not have one of the league’s quickest triggers, the Colts would be in trouble.

Before the 2006 NFL draft, many questioned how any team could draft a cornerback in the first round who had only started four career games and was coming off a serious leg injury. Antonio Cromartie is now showing evaluators how the Chargers could, leading the league in interceptions with nine after picking off Vince Young in Week 14. Cromartie's combination of size, athleticism and ball skills is rare.

Vince Young is not a polished passer, but before anyone heaps too much criticism for his early career struggles, consider what he has to work with. Justin Gage would have a difficult time cracking the roster of many teams around the league, let alone the starting lineup, but he is Young’s top target. It is unfair to expect Young to get much better, like any quarterback in the league, until he has some playmakers around him. As it stands, he has zero. Put Young in Cleveland and the Browns would be undefeated, and his numbers would be eye-popping.

Lions ORT Damien Woody, in his second start at his new position, held up remarkably well vs. one of the most talented defensive lines in football. Losing his job at guard might have been the best thing that happened to him. It's rare that a lineman in the NFL can be effective playing center, guard and tackle, but with Woody's recent efforts outside, he has shown he could. The Lions' offensive line did a fine job matching up against the Cowboys most of the game, but Cowboys DT Jay Ratliff gave Lions C Dominic Raiola a lot of trouble knifing into the backfield.

The Lions got the ball back, leading the Cowboys 27-21 with barely four minutes to play, and the clock was the biggest enemy. Why would the genius of Mike Martz come out throwing the football, continually stopping the clock?

Cleveland and Buffalo will be battling for the final wild-card seed in the AFC next week. On paper, the Browns should win handily. But my gut tells me Dick Jauron, as he has all his life, will continue overachieving and just might squeeze out a victory in the final seconds. He has done a lot with a little.

Chargers C Nick Hardwick tried holding Titans DT Albert Haynesworth after getting beat off the ball, but even a firm grasp could not stop Haynesworth from circling around him and tripping up RB Michael Turner in the backfield. When the Titans' line is on, it is dominant, and the Titans were on for most of Sunday's game, beating up a Chargers line that had only allowed eight sacks in the past nine games to the tune of five on Sunday. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch showed an extra bounce in his step as he handily ran by Chargers OLT Marcus McNeill.

[motife]

Compiled by Billy Wellner and Arthur Arkush
Dec. 12, 2007


Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2007

49ers QB Alex Smith believes head coach Mike Nolan undermined his relationship with his teammates by understating the severity of his shoulder injury, as quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle: “… all of a sudden Nolan spins it as I was making excuses for an injury. What I really felt like was, 'Yeah, I tried to play on it. And that was my decision and obviously I wasn't playing well enough.' But at that point my arm wasn't getting any better. In fact it was getting worse, and I was going to go get a second opinion. (Nolan) can spin it however he wants to, but the first thing Dr. Andrews told me when he saw me was, 'This is much worse than I thought.' ”

Although Broncos RBs Selvin Young and Andre Hall are both gaining more than four yards per carry, head coach Mike Shanahan is not ready to dismiss Travis Henry, as quoted in The Denver Post: “Everybody's kind of throwing Travis Henry under the bus. He led the National Football League after four games, averaging five yards per carry. He had a rib injury and obviously he had (a knee injury) where he missed three or four games. You just don't come back in football shape right away. It takes time. Travis Henry is still the same back he was after the first four games. He was going through a tough time with the rib injury and obviously with the (knee injury), he's got to get back in football shape."

Bucs RB Michael Bennett is disappointed with his lack of playing time since being traded from the Chiefs, as quoted in the St. Petersburg Times: “I just want to play. Maybe it's three or four plays a quarter. I just don't want to be sitting on the sidelines cold and then, at the spur of the moment, go in. … My thing is, I work my butt off to be rewarded on Sunday. It's not a money thing with me. I just want to play. I'm part of a winning team, and I want to feel like I'm contributing somehow. … The payoff is Sunday. I just think I can be out there doing something, whether it be running down on kickoffs, anything. I just want to be on the field.”

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, quoted in The San Diego Union-Tribune, tries to dispel speculation that last Sunday’s game against the Titans featured its fair share of dirty plays: “I don't know what you classify as dirty. I think it was a competitive game. I think sometimes throughout a competitive game things happen. Guys may go the extra distance to try to make a play and make things happen.”

Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2007

Bears DT Darwin Walker, disappointed by his injury-riddled first season with the Bears, quoted in the Chicago Tribune regarding last Thursday’s game against the Redskins: "Pretty much all the second half, I played with one arm. … I know that this has been a very tough year for me with the injuries. It's tough. And I really wanted to come out and be healthy so I can play the way that I'm capable of playing. I feel like, to the Bears' fans, I don't want them to get short-ended. I want them to see what [No.] 99 can do. And right now, with being in the situation that I've been in, it's just been tough to get that done."

Michael Vick’s attorney Lawrence Woodward, discussing Vick’s attitude moving forward after being sentenced to 23 months in federal prison yesterday on dogfighting charges, as quoted on nwi.com: "He understood that some of the things he was doing in life and off the field were dangerous, and he told me he feels lucky that he's alive and not hurt and now it's all about the future. … He doesn't want anyone to feel sorry for him. He just wants a chance to prove himself when all this is over."

Browns RB Jamal Lewis, quoted in the Cleveland Plain Dealer on the last quarter of the season being crunch time for him: "I look forward to November and December. Teams are tired. They've been going since training camp. It's cold. It's wet. It's my time."

Eagles head coach Andy Reid, staying positive about his team's chances to still clinch a wild-card spot (even currently sitting at 5-8 after a tough 16-13 loss to the Giants Sunday), as quoted in the Philadelphia Daily News: "Do I think the players are frustrated, and the coaches are frustrated? Sure, absolutely. On the other hand, you still have a chance. So, I don't see where the frustration would overrule your opportunity to achieve this week. I can tell you how I feel. I don't know about the team yet, but I will. I don't think that I have a room full of guys that would hang their heads."

Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall showed his support for Michael Vick by running onto the field Monday night with a Vick Poster, as well as painting MV7 under his eyes for the game, as quoted in Online-Athens.com: "I don’t want to say this franchise doesn’t want to acknowledge the situation, but that’s kind of the way you feel. All his pictures are gone, no more jerseys, no more nothing. We just wanted to let him know we’re still thinking about him."