NFC North Chat [Archive] - PackerRats.com

motife

12-14-2007, 07:35 PM

PaulieP (Scottsdale): Can we pencil in the vikings at the 6 spot? Or do you give someone like AZ a real chance?

Ken Moll: Paulie- Everyone wants to pencil in teams right now but believe there staill may be some surpizes. What if the Steelers loose a couple down the stretch and the Browns win out ?? I think the Vikings are in the best shape but the winner of the Cards and Saints match up will also be in decent shape.
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Hagar (Helgeland): Assuming the Vikings make the playoffs, what do you think their chances are? Do they have a shot at beating the 'Boys or Packers?

Ken Moll: Hagar, There likely yo get in but I don't see them beating either the Packers or Boys.
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chauncey (teaneck): how do you think kyle orton will do?

Ken Moll: Chauncey,
Orton is the most gifted QB they have on the roster but there were ? marks about his mental make up and leadership abilitites. I think he has a chance to play well with good protection. He has talent!
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jake(boston): will adrian peterson start over chester taylor?

Ken Moll: Jake, I don't know that he will (he should ) but no matter, he'll get more carries.
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troy (Milwaukee): if the packers make it to the super bowl, what are their chances against the patriots or colts?
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paulieQ(scottsville): can we pencil in the packers at the 2 spot? Or do you give someone like MINN a real chance?

Ken Moll: Troy , I would pencil in the Pack at the two spot and the boys at one but even the Giants aren't a lock for the 3 spot (likely but not a lock)
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David: (WI): Can the Pack go into Dallas this time at full strength with Woodsen and KGB and beat the Cowboys and gewt into the SB?

Ken Moll: David, There is no question that they could win in Dallas but they would have to play one of their best games. The Pack is really good but the Boys are on such a roll.

Ken Moll: Paulie, I'm sorry I meant the 5 spot - My Bad.
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Joe (NY): Why is Orton so gifted? is it his arm strength?

Ken Moll: Joe, He made many "big time" throws both in and out of the pocket at Purdue. he does have a big arm and a solid release , Much of his previous problems were betrween the ears but with time in the league (observing) he may have matured and become a btter player (mentally)
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Mike(Miami): How many more years do you think Brett Favre has left?

Ken Moll: Mike,
It's toug to tell as I thought he would have retired a year ago. he has talent (obviously) but it's tough to get ready for an NFL season every year - If he takes them far in the playoffs or has another injury this may be it.
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Chad (MN): Since weather is a big topic of conversation this time of year, the Vikings are in good shape, as I believe they are the best team in the worst weather. Your thoughts...

Ken Moll: Chad, I know they have a great ground attack but any dome team outside in inclement weather is somewhat at a disadvantage.
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Ken Moll(NY): Do you think Detroit can pull a win against San Diego?

Ken Moll: NY, I had that match up this week and I really don't see it happening since the Chargers have found their footing but the lions have enough talent to out score them if they can protect Kitna- Merriman is not playing so that is likely to be a factor.
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Ben (SVC): What do you think Da Bears will do with Benson?

Ken Moll: Ben , That's hard to tell. I'm not sure they will get much for him so they may hang on to him and see wat happens. They need to get their QB situation and O-line squared away first and also start playing on defense and thing may fall into place for Benson. I'm not sure that he is a "featured Back" but he does have talent.
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paul (richmond): Hi Ken, will the Packers be ready to play the Rams this sunday or will we have one of those games that Pack will have to rally late - just feels like trap game going indoors to a 3-10 team (albeit one with a lot of injuries this season)

Ken Moll: Paul, Good point- It could be a trap game especially with the Packers being such a young team, but they have some great veteran leadership ( Brett, both OT's , both CB's ) that have been there and I don't think they will let that happen.
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Michael (LA): If Orton is going to play, then who will hold his beer? And can someone get the guy one of those stryofoam can holders so it doesn't get cold during his 3-and-outs?

Ken Moll: Michael, Lets see what happens , he may hold off until after the game.
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Nate (Detroit): Ken what do you think of TJ Duckett? Will the Lions try to resign him and then trade the disgruntled KJones?" Duckett and Calhoun would be a good combo in Martz' system.

Ken Moll: Nate, I like Duckett - He is a load and can ick up chnks of yards. They shoudl resign him and get rid of any players that don't want to be there.
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jake(boston city): what are your pics for the superbowl ken?

Ken Moll: Jake - Indy vs. Boys
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Paul (South Dakota): Will the improved play of Grossman in his second stint of the season keep him on the team next year

Ken Moll: Paul, Rex has talent but Da' Bears need to change the comlextion of ther QB position . He needs to move on and it will be better for him and Da' Bears.

Lurker64

12-14-2007, 08:28 PM

Ken Moll: Troy , I would pencil in the Pack at the two spot and the boys at one but even the Giants aren't a lock for the 3 spot (likely but not a lock)

This man has a different definition of likely than I do. In fact, it's entirely impossible that the Giants are the #3 spot, since it's Mathematically impossible for them to win their division. The number three spot goes to the division winner with the third best record (among division winners.)

The Giants are currently fighting for the number five spot. It's likely that Seattle or Tampa will take the number three spot.

PlantPage55

12-14-2007, 08:30 PM

--Waves at his credibility going straight down the toilet--

cheesner

12-14-2007, 09:03 PM

cheesner

12-14-2007, 09:05 PM

Michael (LA): If Orton is going to play, then who will hold his beer? And can someone get the guy one of those stryofoam can holders so it doesn't get cold during his 3-and-outs?

Ken Moll: Michael, Lets see what happens , he may hold off until after the game. Bwaaahahahahaha!

HarveyWallbangers

12-16-2007, 01:58 AM

From ESPN.

Vikings' run dominance might not be enough
By Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders.com

Conventional wisdom says that to win in the playoffs, you have to be able to run the ball and stop the run.

If that conventional wisdom is true, the most dangerous team in the NFC might be the Minnesota Vikings. No team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 has been quite so unbalanced, with both the offense and defense dramatically better on running plays than on passing plays.

The Vikings lead the league in rushing average, getting 5.7 yards per carry. That's 0.8 better than the team in second place through Week 14, Denver (4.9 yards per carry). Only once since 1970 has there been a larger difference between the top two teams in rushing average: 1991, when the Barry Sanders-led Lions averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and the Broncos were second with 4.6 yards per carry.

The only reason Minnesota is not as dominant on run defense is that there is one other team that is their equal. Baltimore is allowing only 2.9 yards per carry to lead the league, and Minnesota is second with 3.1 yards per carry. Every other defense allows 3.7 yards per carry or more.

In the passing game, however, the Vikings are merely average. They barely gain more yardage on passes than they do on runs. Their average of 5.8 net yards per pass is 20th in the league. On defense, they allow 6.1 net yards per pass, which ranks 15th.

If the run is the key to winning in the playoffs, teams that are similar to Minnesota should have a strong record in the postseason. But when we look at NFL history, we find just the opposite: Most similar teams have losing records, and the teams with winning records generally flop in the postseason.

To figure out which teams have had the strongest tilt towards the run on both offense and defense, I looked at each team's ranking in four categories: yards per carry on both sides of the ball, and net yards per pass on both sides of the ball. We'll call this stat "ground power." (Forget about total yardage and the "official" NFL rankings, which are significantly biased by the fact that winning teams will run more on offense and face fewer runs on defense.)

For example, so far this year the Vikings rank first in run offense and second in run defense (3) but 20th on pass offense and 15th in pass defense (35). That gives them a "ground power" grade of 32.

It's not hard to remember the team with the highest ground power grade, since they played just a year ago: the 2006 Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons were first in run offense and sixth in run defense, but 30th in pass offense and 31st in pass defense, for a ground power grade of 54. Here are the top 10 teams since 1970, plus the best team this year:

Ground Power
Year Team Off. Yd/Run Rank Def. Yd/Run Rank Off. Yd/Pass Rank Def. Yd/Pass Rank GP W-L
2006 Atlanta 1 6 30 31 54 7-9
1984 L.A. Rams 1 3 22 28 46 10-6
1999 Cincinnati 3 9 24 30 42 4-12
2000 Cincinnati 5 7 31 22 41 4-12
1999 San Francisco 1 11 22 31 41 4-12
1998 Pittsburgh 9 3 27 24 39 7-9
1983 Pittsburgh 10 3 27 24 38 10-6
2007 Baltimore 21 1 30 29 37 4-9
1975 Cleveland 6 5 25 23 37 11-4
2005 San Francisco 16 11 31 32 36 4-12
1985 Indy 1 10 25 22 36 5-11

You might notice that most of these teams weren't very good. Only two of them have winning records, and the 1983 Steelers and 1984 Rams each lost its only playoff game.

Look at more teams, and the results aren't much better. Prior to this year, 31 teams since 1970 had a ground power rating of 30 or higher. Those teams had a winning percentage of just .402. Only five made the postseason, and out of those five, only the 2004 Falcons actually won a playoff game.

Expand to teams with a ground power rating of 20 or higher, and we find 113 teams since the merger with a combined winning percentage of just .415. The 23 teams that made the playoffs have a combined postseason record of 11-21.

Of course, just because a team ranks higher in run offense and defense than in pass offense and defense doesn't mean it actually does a good job of running the ball or stopping the run. The 2005 49ers don't have a high ground power rating because they actually had any power on the ground. They have a high ground power rating because they had zero effect in the air, with an abysmal passing game and the league's worst pass defense.

So I took those teams with a ground power rating of 20 or higher, and filtered out any team that wasn't actually ranked in the top 10 for both run offense and run defense. That left 55 teams, plus the current Vikings. These teams are a little better, but they still aren't winners overall. Their combined winning percentage is .498, and only 19 of them made the playoffs. Minnesota fans won't be happy to learn that 14 of those 19 teams were one-and-done in the postseason.

The combined playoff record of these teams is 10-17, and seven of those wins are by the two teams who actually rode dominance in the running game to a Super Bowl championship: the 1988 San Francisco 49ers and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. However, unlike the Vikings, these two teams ranked in the top 10 in one of the two pass categories as well.

Ground power
Year Team Off. Yd/Run Rank Def. Yd/Run Rank Off. Yd/Pass Rank Def. Yd/Pass Rank GP W-L
1988 San Francisco 2 4 9 25 28 10-6
2000 Baltimore 8 1 24 7 22 12-4

The Ravens are a huge exception in recent history, which simply hasn't been kind to teams that were far better in the ground game than in the passing game. The 28 teams that made it to the conference championship game since 2000 had an average ground power rating of minus-7.4. Only two of the 14 teams that made it to the Super Bowl had a positive ground power rating: the 2000 Ravens and the 2005 Seattle Seahawks (11).

There's no doubt that the 2007 Vikings are a great story. Nobody expected much from this team going into the season, yet they have an excellent chance to make the playoffs. Just don't expect much from them once they get there. Adrian Peterson might be the sure rookie of the year, and Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are two outstanding defensive linemen, but teams don't really win in the playoffs by running the ball and stopping the run.

They win by passing the ball and shutting down the other team's quarterback with good pass defense.

Aaron Schatz is president of Football Outsiders Inc. and the lead author of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 and 2008.

Rastak

12-16-2007, 08:38 AM

To be honest though, the Vikings pass defense has gotten alot better since the Green Bay game. They've gotten away from a straight cover 2 and have been mixing up blitzes quite well. They actually get off the field now on 3rd down every once in a while. They still give up alot of yardage but it's not as bad as it was.

They are #8 in scoring defense (Pack is 6th) so they must be doing something right.

Fritz

12-16-2007, 08:47 AM

"Why is Orton so gifted? is it his arm strength? "

Ken Moll: No, it's the size of his penis.

Tony Oday

12-16-2007, 10:01 AM

Rastak

12-16-2007, 10:37 AM

The pass defense against who Ras. Not to be combative but I think the pass defense is like the run defense....a mirage...

I still like that damn AP though he could get the flu if the Pack has to play them again ;)

I think scoring defense is pretty much the only stat that really and truly matters. #8 out of 32 is pretty solid.

b bulldog

12-16-2007, 10:40 AM

The running game also helps the Vikes D but imo, the Vikes D is solid and when we played them, Winfield was hurt, if he was healthy the Vikes D would have been better.