PFW : notes 12/17

[motife]

Packers looking more 'Super?'
By PFW staff
Dec. 17, 2007

Forget Green Bay’s primetime loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back that put Dallas in the NFC driver’s seat on the road to Glendale, Ariz. — the site of this year’s Super Bowl. With two regular-season weeks remaining, the only thing that separates the Packers from the Cowboys for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs is the tiebreaker advantage Dallas earned in its 37-27 home victory in Week 13. And with Green Bay flying high following its second straight win after losing to Dallas — clinching a first-round bye and a home playoff game with its 33-14 victory in St. Louis — and the Cowboys suffering a setback at home against the upstart Eagles last Sunday, a strong case can suddenly be made for the Packers to be perched atop the NFC power rankings, with none other than future Hall of Famer Brett Favre leading the way.

The PFW spin

Here’s what was really impressive about the Packers’ win last Sunday in St. Louis: It was a total team effort, with the defense and special teams actually being much more responsible for the victory than the offense, which has gotten most of the ink nationally with Favre at the helm. Last Sunday, while Favre and the Packers were limited to only 279 total yards by Jim Haslett’s whirling-dervish defense, the Packers’ “D” frequently sent an extra rusher at Rams QB Marc Bulger that resulted in four sacks and constant pressure. As for the special teams, they provided a significant advantage in field position, with Koren Robinson’s kickoff returns of 43 and 66 yards doing particular damage. The Packers are far from perfect. Their increased blitz packages made them more vulnerable to the run (Rams RB Steven Jackson ripped off 143 rushing yards). And the offense has had a hard time all season converting short-yardage situations. But the total package on both sides of the ball is impressive, with head coach Mike McCarthy continuing to push all the right buttons. And don’t forget the rest of the regular-season schedule. While Green Bay finishes up with Chicago on the road this Sunday and Detroit at home in the regular-season finale, the Cowboys must face the Panthers and Redskins on the road the final two games — two teams coming off impressive upset victories.

Our fantasy take

The usual fantasy suspects — Favre, WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, TE Donald Lee and Grant since Week Eight — all figure to finish off the fantasy season on a high note going up against very vulnerable defenses (Bears, Lions) the next two weeks. One word of caution: Watch the weather closely.

[motife]

Master tactician

Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson stymies NFL’s top QBs

By Nolan Nawrocki
Dec. 17, 2007


Football is often made out to be a lot more complex than it really is, but simplicity has never been lost on Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. He lived up to his strong reputation vs. the Cowboys, fielding the first defense that has been able to limit the Cowboys’ high-octane offense both without a touchdown and to fewer than 300 yards of offense in the same game in 2007.

He kept the game plan relatively simple, allowing physical CB Lito Sheppard to frustrate Terrell Owens with help frequently coming over the top. Sheppard and the Eagles’ secondary, familiar with Owens from their two seasons together in Philadelphia two years ago, were running Owens' routes for him much of the day. All three of Tony Romo’s picks were intended for Owens.

He flagged his first route, breaking down too early and allowing Sheppard to break on the ball and pick it off. And with the Cowboys driving late in the fourth quarter, Owens slipped to the ground and the ball zipped into a converging Brian Dawkins’ hands, right where Owens was expected to be.

As Owens was barking on the sideline early in the game, the Cowboys’ offense fell out of sync and could never establish a rhythm. Romo, who finished with a 22.2 passer rating, easily the worst of his career, had not fared so poorly since Christmas last year in the same Texas Stadium.

Johnson has a way of frustrating many of the game’s top quarterbacks. He frustrated Brett Favre in the season opener, holding him to a 58.2 passer rating, shutting down the Packers’ running game the same way he did to the Cowboys on Sunday and forcing the Packers to beat Philadelphia with the pass.

Heading into the Eagles' clash with New England in Week 12, Tom Brady had not thrown fewer than three TDs in any game and was coming off a near-perfect performance vs. Buffalo. Johnson kept him in check with his aggressive defense, shutting down Randy Moss, eliminating the big plays the Patriots’ offense had become known for and creating consistent pressure with the front four and unsuspected zone blitzes. In two of the three next games, when opposing defensive coordinators had time to study how Johnson contained him, Brady's passer rating continued to dip.

Johnson receives high praise from his peers around the league for his creative blitz packages within a simple base defense, limiting big plays and creating turnovers. While the Eagles have not generated as many takeaways as they typically do this season, they lived up to their billing vs. Dallas.

Don’t be surprised if disciples of Johnson’s coaching tree begin spreading their wings more throughout the league, with Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and Chargers LB coach Ron Rivera all excelling around the league since departing Philadelphia. Rivera, who has had more head-coaching interviews than the rest, currently holds only a position-coach title, which would seem to limit his chances and keep him from making the jump to being a head coach. However, with Rivera having received a pay raise going from Chicago to San Diego and getting a chance to become acquainted with the increasingly popular 3-4 defense, some NFL executives believe he will still warrant head-coaching interest, especially in light of how much the Bears have struggled since he has left.

Panthers backup RB DeAngelo Williams has better vision, feet, quickness and balance than DeShaun Foster, and every time he gets a chance to produce, he seems to take advantage of it, as he did vs. the Seahawks. Yet, it is Foster who has remained in the starting lineup despite putting the ball on the ground seven times this season and losing five of them. The Panthers’ roster is more talented than it has shown this season — and that falls on the coaching staff.

The Rams got a big boost from a healthy Steven Jackson and played the Packers more competitively than the 33-14 score reflects. No team in the league has been more stricken by injuries. The Rams are not nearly as bad as their 3-11 record reflects and, with a good offseason, could be in contention to be next year’s Cinderella team.

There may not be a better back to have in the snow than Jamal Lewis. He’s got the foot quickness and balance to stay on his feet and sidestep defenders and the power to keep driving the pile and plow for extra yardage. Anytime it snows and it becomes more difficult to throw the ball, the advantage goes to the team with the best ground game, and it belonged to the Browns, with Lewis rushing for a Week 15-high 163 yards against Buffalo. Not surprisingly, the week’s next-leading rusher, Jaguars RB Fred Taylor, also played in snowy conditions, and the Jaguars were able to eclipse the Steelers by a touchdown.

The Lions have now dropped six games and counting and looked defeated vs. the Chargers in an embarrassing 51-14 loss that allowed the Chargers to rest some starters after halftime.

On paper, Troy Smith’s numbers were very average for Baltimore, but the rookie showed some poise entering the game for the injured Kyle Boller in the fourth quarter. After producing just 16 yards of offense in the second half with Boller at the helm, Smith brought the Ravens down the field on two consecutive drives — one at the end of the game to tie it and the first in overtime to position the typically clutch Matt Stover for a game-winning FG attempt. Stover hooked it to the left, but it doesn’t diminish the solid job Smith did. All he was asked to do was manage the game and let the ground game go to work, and he did what he was asked.

One win in a 16-game season is not good enough, and if Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga thinks this season has been anything but a disaster, he is kidding himself.

If you look closely, you can still see that Donovan McNabb’s right knee does not have the complete range that it used to, but he looked like the McNabb of old with some of the open-field running he showed vs. the Cowboys.

Ravens ORT Marshal Yanda got exposed by Jason Taylor, giving up two momentum-changing sacks and a number of pressures. Yanda is outmatched playing outside. He needs to move inside.

Browns WR Braylon Edwards double-clutched and dropped a ball he should have caught, but he also made some spectacular grabs in the snow after outmaneuvering Bills defensive backs who were slow to plant and drive on the snow-covered field. His consistency has made the Browns’ offense more explosive. But the most underrated part of the whole group may be brilliant offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, who is fast on his way to a head-coaching job.

[motife]

PFW’s editors offer their take on the performances, games and news that left an impression in Week 15.

Time for Bengals to start anew

It is time for Bengals owner Mike Brown to make sweeping changes in the offseason. His team, as currently constituted, is not going to get over the hump in the AFC. If anything, it is going backward. On Saturday night, the Bengals were embarrassed by a San Francisco club starting its third-string quarterback and depending on a defense long on pride but vulnerable after 13 games of cleaning up for an offense ranked dead last. Instead, the Niners took the fight to the Bengals, who lacked a cohesive plan on offense and again had no answers on defense. At 5-9, the Bengals are perhaps further away from contending than they ever have been in Marvin Lewis’ tenure. The defense must be rebuilt, starting with the defensive line and working backward. The offense also needs its share of work; the offensive line isn’t what it was, and it’s clear the team has lost confidence in RB Rudi Johnson, who received only seven carries vs. the Niners. The situation with WR Chad Johnson, who dropped what could have been the game-tying touchdown on Cincinnati’s last offensive drive, has also come to a head. Even more troubling: Johnson and QB Carson Palmer don’t appear to be on the same page. It’s no secret Palmer is looking for T.J. Houshmandzadeh, not Johnson, on the majority of third-down situations. Chad Johnson isn’t to blame for all that has gone wrong in Cincinnati, but he’s symbolic of the team’s failed promise, and his emotional outbursts have grown tiresome. Maybe he needs a fresh start. Whether they trade him or not, the Bengals need to do something, because this isn’t working.
— Mike Wilkening

Raiders show some grit in near upset of Colts

You have to hand it to those pesky Raiders. One thing’s for certain: They are certainly more competitive under Lane Kiffin than they were under Art Shell, and even Norv Turner for that matter. After getting routed by the Packers 38-7 a week ago, you had to wonder how they would respond vs. the visiting defending champs. And what they did was put a real scare into the Colts, nearly escaping with a major upset. They controlled the clock with a heavy and effective dose of RB Justin Fargas and some nice timing throws from QB Josh McCown — and even put together a 20-play, 99-yard scoring. They weren’t afraid to leave their defensive backs in a lot of man coverage, using their LB corps to help the defensive line in harassing Peyton Manning and keeping him from scrolling through his options or stepping into his throws on a consistent basis. Impressive young LBs Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison didn’t let Colts RB Joseph Addai breathe in the running game or generate much as a check-down receiver. Overall, it was a solid performance by the Raiders, who may, sometime soon, figure out a way to pull out these games.
— Trent Modglin

Patriots’ running game has yet to inspire

As far as quarterbacks are concerned, this is hardly the most wonderful time of the year. This time of the year sucks, especially for those who sling the pigskin north of the Mason-Dixon line. Just ask Tom Brady. With wind, ice and cold aplenty, Gillette Stadium wasn’t the best a man — or quarterback — could get. It was a place where the passing game goes to die, and more importantly, a place where the running game needed to step up. New England has leaned on the ground game at times this season, but Sunday was the first time it needed it. The result wasn’t encouraging. 131 yards is certainly nothing to scoff at, but it took 35 carries to get it. For a team with an offensive line as good as the Patriots’ against a defensive front as porous as the Jets’, I expected more. And from here on out, the Patriots need more. Their warm weather days are over. Having clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Pats have up to three more games at Gillette and one at Giants Stadium before their trek to the Arizona desert for the Super Bowl. The elements will worsen, and the passing game will continue to slow from its previously torrid pace. For the cogs of the Pats’ running game, particularly RB Laurence Maroney, it’s gut-check time. On Sunday, they didn’t play like it.
— Matt Sohn

Owens’ whining hurts Cowboys more than Romo’s injured thumb

The Cowboys dropped a tough 10-6 decision to the Eagles, as QB Tony Romo struggled with accuracy, possibly the result of a right thumb injury. Romo completed a miserable 13-of-36 pass attempts and threw three interceptions. However, he is not to blame. Terrell Owens was the culprit in this one. Less than two weeks removed from his 34th birthday, Owens was seen on the sideline throwing a tantrum, screaming and flapping his arms about, like a spoiled, selfish, immature child. Held without a reception through three quarters, the same man that threw himself that birthday party was angry because he wasn’t the center of attention. Note to Terrell – get over it. The Cowboys lost because of you. Romo was clearly pressing on two of his interceptions in an attempt to pacify the whining Owens, forcing the ball to his temperamental receiver when he should have gone elsewhere. This deliberate effort to satisfy the elephant in the corner (donning a No. 81 jersey) cost the Cowboys today, and could doom them come playoff time.
— Billy Wellner

Weather game in Cleveland a delight to watch

The weather in Cleveland was awesome. I mean, it was terrible, but that’s part of what makes football so appealing to me. The weather, unless life threatening, is always a variable to plan against in the NFL. While you may argue that baseball sometimes plays in the rain, if it begins to rain too hard, they will halt play. So when the Bills went to play the Browns Sunday, they knew that extra preparation was required. The snow was so heavy that CBS couldn’t even use its normal graphics to indicate where the line of scrimmage or the first down marker were. The combination of snow and wind was crippling, as Buffalo had less yards of total offense (232) than Brian Moorman collected in punting yards (251), and the Bills looked lost offensively for much of the game. Browns RB Jamal Lewis looked rejuvenated as he plowed his way to 163 rushing yards. Cleveland only managed two impressive field goals by PK Phil Dawson and a safety, but it was enough to get the win and inch closer to the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2002.
— Matt Duffy

Packers and Cowboys can rest easy: Seahawks are no threat in NFC

The Seahawks looked like anything but a team that had clinched a playoff spot Sunday in a 13-10 loss to the Panthers. Seattle had its lowest yardage total in the last nine games, netting just 282 yards against a Carolina team that fields, at best, an average defense. Last week, the Panthers allowed 38 carries for 178 yards in a 37-6 loss to the Jaguars, but were able to hold the Seahawks to 44 yards on 14 carries. After a two-week hiatus, Seattle’s offensive-line woes popped up again, allowing Carolina, which entered the game last in the league in sacks, to bring down Matt Hasselbeck three times. Some had positioned the Seahawks back in the upper-echelon of the NFC after its five-game winning streak, but Sunday’s performance will quickly silence that talk.
— Dan Parr

[motife]

Week 15 PFW Players of the Week
Dec. 17, 2007

Offense
RB Fred Taylor
Jacksonville Jaguars

For the second straight week, Taylor was tremendous. Against a Steelers run defense that was ranked second coming in, Taylor ran 25 times for 126 yards, including the game-clinching 12-yard score in the Jaguars’ impressive 29-22 win in Pittsburgh.

Defense
DE Mario Williams
Houston Texans

Though he has been having a great season of late, Williams’ big game against the Broncos was the first time many people saw him in primetime. And he delivered with 3½ sacks and seven tackles, celebrating the final sack with a Pro Bowl-style hula dance.

Special teams
PK Phil Dawson
Cleveland Browns

Other special-teamers had better numbers last Sunday, but Dawson’s two field goals in driving snow and wind were nothing short of tremendous. His 49-yarder might have been the best bad-weather kick since Adam Vinatieri’s famous “Snow Game” boot.

[motife]

Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin is not consoled by a narrow 21-14 loss to the Colts, as quoted on InsideBayArea.com: “We're too far along to feel good because we played the world champs down to the 14-yard-line to win the game. Who cares? We lost. We've got to start winning these games. Some day we'll be that team that makes the plays and finishes people off like that.”

49ers QB Shaun Hill, quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle, is animated following an impressive debut, in which he completed 21-of-28 pass attempts for 197 yards and two total touchdowns in defeating the Bengals Saturday night: “If I had any naysayers out there, I haven't heard from them. If I proved something to somebody, it's someone I don't know and whom I've never talked to.”

Bucs WR Micheal Spurlock recorded the first kickoff return for touchdown in team history in a 37-3 victory over the Falcons. CB Ronde Barber credits Spurlock and the team’s other young players for contributing to an NFC South crown, as quoted in the St. Petersburg Times: “Somebody that nobody knew about — it's a great story for us. It really typifies what this year has been: guys stepping up and coming out of nowhere. Greg White. Tanard Jackson, a rookie. Those kinds of stories are all over our team, and it's part of the reason we are where we are this year.”

Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez, quoted in The Kansas City Star, resoundingly supports QB Brodie Croyle, who is 0-4 this season since replacing Damon Huard: “Brodie, he is the quarterback. A lot of people are saying, ‘This draft, go out there and get a quarterback.’ Nah. Brodie is the guy. … It’s good for him to go through this. Honestly. It is. Anything in life — you’ll never know how sweet the mountaintop is unless you go through some valleys. And right now, he’s going through a little valley. All of us are. I do hope that next year is going to be better. He’s going to come around. He’s got a great arm. He’s got a good future. He’s definitely the guy for this job.”

[motife]

Packers WR Greg Jennings : It can be argued that few receivers have been as electrifying this year as Jennings, who has quickly earned the trust of Brett Favre in his second pro season. Jennings has 12 TD grabs and has been a big play waiting to happen with seven catches covering 40 yards or more, 5 of which went for scores.

Packer TE Donald Lee : I can pretty much guarantee that Lee went undrafted in 95% of fantasy leagues outside Wisconsin, yet he has totalle 47 catches for 573 yards and 6 scores, looking every bit the part of potential top 10 tight end.

[motife]

GB In Top 10 NFL Stats :

Offense :
Total Yds/game : 3
Passing Yds/game : 2
Avg. gain/pass play : 3
% had intercepted : 6
% QB Sacks allowed : 3
First downs/game : 10
Avg. gain/off play : 3
3rd down efficiency : 9
Points/game : 4

Defense :
% Intercepted by : 7
QB Sack % : 7
3rd down efficiency : 1
4th down efficiency : 4
Opp points/game : 6

Special Teams :
Punt Ret avg : 6
Gross punting avg : 7
Net Punting avg : 6
Opp punt return avg : 5
Opp KO return avg : 9
Opp net punting avg : 4

Other :
Point differential : 3
Turnover edge : 9
Punt return differential : 3
KO return differential : 8
TD Red Zone % : 8

[b bulldog]

Thanks, great stuff as always