Cliff Christl compares 2006 to 1995

[K-town]

If a few young players step up...
Posted: May 16, 2006

Cliff Christl
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Green Bay - As has been the case for the past 14 years, Brett Favre, more than any other player, holds the key to the Green Bay Packers' upcoming season. Having drafted fifth rather than 20th or later, the Packers stand a better chance than in the recent past of getting immediate help from their first draft pick. And they might get a boost from cornerback Charles Woodson and some of their other free agents.

But if the Packers are going to significantly improve on their 4-12 record of last season, it's probably going to depend on whether several of their young, inexperienced players blossom.

It seems that fewer and fewer rookies are making much of a splash across the league these days. And free agency has seldom tipped the scales in the NFL.

When teams make a jump in the standings, it's usually because their young veterans finally come into their own.

That's why the Packers' fortunes in this coming season figure to hinge to a large extent on the likes of Samkon Gado, Nick Collins, Nick Barnett, Corey Williams, Scott Wells, Junius Coston, Ahmad Carroll, Colin Cole, Kenny Peterson, Mike Hawkins and Brady Poppinga, among others.

In looking back at the Packers' off-season developments since 1993, the beginning of the free agent era, the one that might have been the most instructive was 1995.

Here were some of the headlines:

Jan. 11 - It's announced that defensive backfield coach Dick Jauron will leave the Packers to become defensive coordinator of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Feb. 3 - Receivers coach Jon Gruden leaves to become offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.

Feb. 17 - Steve Sidwell resigns to become defensive coordinator of the Houston Oilers less than three weeks after he agreed to become linebackers coach of the Packers.

Feb. 27 - Defensive lineman Don Davey, who started four games late in the 1994 season, leaves the Packers to join Jauron in Jacksonville.

Feb. 28 - The Packers waive 29-year-old wide receiver Sterling Sharpe, their most potent offensive weapon, less than a month after he had undergone neck surgery that threatened to end his career.

March 4 - The Packers lose free agent Tim Hauck, their backup safety for the past four seasons, to Denver, which will give him an opportunity to start.

March 8 - Linebacker Bryce Paup, the Packers' only starter in last month's Pro Bowl, signs a three-year, $7.6 million contract with Buffalo that includes a $3.3 million signing bonus. General manager Ron Wolf could have kept Paup, 27, by putting a franchise tag on him and paying him $2.807 million next season, but declined to do so.

March 10 - Tight end Eric Green, one of two free agents at the top of the Packers' shopping list and maybe the most coveted free agent in this year's market, decides to sign with Miami.

March 13 - The Packers lose out on Jay Novacek, another free agent tight end and their fallback option after losing Green. Novacek decided to stay with Dallas, although the Packers offered more money.

March 22 - Free agent wide receiver Andre Rison chooses Cleveland over the Packers. The Packers had courted Rison since the opening hours of free agency. They had twice sent offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis to Atlanta to meet with Rison and also entertained him at a Milwaukee Bucks game. In fact, the Packers probably put more effort into their pursuit of Rison than any free agent since Reggie White. But Rison said he never felt a connection to anyone in Green Bay's front office and didn't like the way the team had treated Sharpe.

March 28 - The Packers lose tight end Ed West, who started 12 games the season before, and running back Darrell Thompson, a former No. 1 draft pick, to free agency.

March 29 - Tight end Keith Jackson tells his agent that he'll retire rather than play for the Packers after they give Miami a second-round draft pick for his rights in a deal with no conditions attached.

March 31 - The Packers lose defensive lineman Matt Brock through free agency.

April 3 - Unable to even find a team that would part with a seventh-round draft pick, the Packers trade cornerback Terrell Buckley to Miami for past considerations or, in essence, nothing. Just three years earlier, the Packers selected Buckley with the fifth pick in the draft. Minicamp also opens with a number of players missing, including Jackson. Unhappy over his contract, running back Edgar Bennett agrees to attend meetings but refuses to practice. Robert Brooks, Mark Chmura and George Koonce are among the Packers' own free agents who don't practice because they remain unsigned. Also, recently signed free agent offensive lineman Jerry Crafts, formerly of Buffalo, reports at close to 400 pounds.

April 11 - Joe Sims, the Packers' starting right offensive tackle, becomes the ninth free agent to leave when he signs with the Philadelphia Eagles.

April 22 - The Packers select cornerback Craig Newsome in the first round of the draft, although they were in desperate need of offensive weapons. "We need to find somebody that can score touchdowns," Wolf had said several weeks before the draft. "Be it a tight end, a running back, a wide receiver, whatever. Somebody that's a touchdown scorer." The Packers drafted Newsome after failing in an effort to trade for franchise wide receiver Rob Moore of the New York Jets. The Packers were reported to have offered the Jets their No. 1 pick and a third, but couldn't agree on an additional player. In turn, the Packers also are forced to settle for third- and fifth-round choices when they trade quarterback Mark Brunell to Jacksonville. The Eagles had agreed to give the Packers a second three days earlier, but couldn't agree with Brunell on a contract.

April 28 - Disgruntled wide receiver Mark Ingram skips minicamp. He had been acquired by the Packers from Miami for a fourth-round draft pick a little more than a month ago.

May 2 - Sharpe files a $9.6 million lawsuit against the Packers.

July 21 - Jackson and Ingram, the team's two major off-season acquisitions, are missing as the Packers open training camp. In addition, third-year veteran Paul Hutchins, who was being counted on as the Packers' starting right tackle, reports at some 380 pounds. White would say in an interview a few days later that he was so disappointed over the team's off-season developments that it was hard for him to stick with his workout program.

So what happened in 1995 in the wake of all that bad news?

The Packers won their first NFC Central title in 23 years, appeared in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the Ice Bowl 28 years earlier and emerged confident that they could win next year's Super Bowl.

How did they do it?

Favre, at age 26, had his first MVP season. And although White didn't have one of his more productive years, he still played at a high level.

But almost as important was the development of several young players who hadn't done much to that point.

Brooks soared from 58 to 102 catches in his second year as a starter. Chmura established himself as the starter at tight end in his third season and his reception total jumped from 14 to 54. Earl Dotson, who couldn't get off the bench in 1994 when he was overweight and didn't seem to care, entrenched himself at right tackle and became the team's best run blocker. Bennett rushed for 1,067 yards, up from 623 the previous season, his first as a starter.

Gilbert Brown led the team in tackles for loss in his first season as a starter. Former No. 1 pick Wayne Simmons, in his third season but first as a fulltime starter, improved over the course of the season and dominated in a playoff victory against San Francisco. Cornerback Doug Evans, who had struggled in his first year as a starter in '94, showed steady improvement.

Could history repeat itself this year?

The Packers don't have a rising star at quarterback or anyone on defense to compare to White. And they shorted themselves on draft picks from 2002 through 2004. Therefore, some of their young players might not hold as much promise as some of those from 11 years ago.

But, again, if there's any chance of it, those who are perhaps most likely to play a leading role are the Packers' untapped young veterans, more so than this year's free agents and draft picks.

[K-town]

TUESDAY, May 16, 2006, 5:35 p.m.

What was instructive about '95
If you’ve read this week’s column about the setbacks and inactivity that marked the Green Bay Packers’ 1995 off-season, it supports several widely held beliefs by people inside the game,

1) That it’s a young man’s game.
Brett Favre turned 26 during the 1995 season. LeRoy Butler was 27; Mark Chmura and Edgar Bennett, both 26; Robert Brooks and Doug Evans, both 25; Gilbert Brown, Craig Hentrich and Craig Newsome, all 24; Wayne Simmons turned 26 during the season and Earl Dotson turned 25. The only graybeards among the Packers’ key players that year were Reggie White, who turned 34; Ken Ruettgers, 33; and Sean Jones, who turned 33.

2) In today’s NFL, it usually takes draft picks two, three years or more to establish themselves as solid starters.
Chmura was in his fourth season and started for the first time. Dotson was in his third season and had been a big disappointment to that point. Simmons was in his third year, but had yet to establish himself as a starter. Gilbert Brown was in his third year and first as a starter. Brooks was in his fourth season and his career had followed a familiar path: One of steady improvement rather than instant impact. He had caught 12 passes as a rookie, 20 in his second season and 58 in his third before catching 102 in 1995. Moreover, only one of the Packers’ 10 draft picks started: Newsome at left cornerback. Antonio Freeman contributed as a return man and played in four wide receiver sets, but caught only eight passes. Darius Holland started four games at defensive tackle, but was inconsistent. William Henderson came on late, but didn’t cut it as a lead blocker early and couldn’t beat out Dorsey Levens at fullback.

3) Players come and go, and more often than not, they’re easily replaced.
The Packers might have accomplished more than they did in the mid-1990s if they hadn’t prematurely lost wide receiver Sterling Sharpe to a career-ending injury and linebacker Bryce Paup to free agency. Then again, maybe they wouldn’t have. Their departure created opportunities for Brooks and Simmons. Among oher starters lost that off-season were two offensive linemen and the tight end, but none was missed.

4) Free agency is overrated.
The Packers didn’t sign a single unrestricted free agent that off-season. They added Santana Dotson, Desmond Howard and Don Beebe the next year, and they helped the Packers win a Super Bowl. But they weren’t high-priced free agents.

5) Some times the best moves are the ones that are never made.
The Packers might have courted tight end Eric Green and wide receiver Andre Rison as actively as any two free agents since White. They were regarded as two of the best in the game at their positions at the time. Rison had averaged better than 84 catches and 11 TDs over the previous five seasons in Atlanta. Green had just played in back-to-back Pro Bowls. Rison was only 28 at the time; Green, 27. But Rison’s numbers dropped to 47 catches and 3 TDs with Cleveland in 1995. He was cut, signed by Jacksonville and cut again after 10 games in 1996. The Packers claimed Rison on waivers following a rash of injuries and he helped them down the stretch in their Super Bowl season. But Rison had only one more big year: With Kansas City in 1997 when he caught 72 passes. Otherwise, he didn’t catch more than 47 passes in any of his last six seasons. Green signed with Miami, caught only 43 passes and also was released after one season. He had one more good year with Baltimore in 1997, but started only 37 games over his final four seasons. Jay Novacek, the tight end the Packers pursued after losing Green, played one more year before his career was cut short by a back injury. Rob Moore, the wide receiver the Packers almost acquired from the New York Jets for two draft picks and a veteran player, was traded to Arizona instead. With the Cardinals, he had four good years, including a career year in 1997 when he caught 97 passes for 1,584 yards. Maybe his presence would have made a difference in Super Bowl XXXII. Then again, the Packers wouldn’t have had Newsome or Brooks, the veteran that the Jets wanted in the deal.

6) Most NFL veterans don’t stay at the top of their games very long, often because of injuries, and that’s why it so risky to pay them big money.
After catching 102 passes in ’95, Brooks caught 23, 60 and 31 in his final three seasons with the Packers. He was essentially finished by age 28. Chmura caught 54 passes in ’95, his first year as a starter, and never caught that many again. In fact, the only other year in which he caught more than 40 was 1998. His career essentially was over before he hit 30. Bennett had another good year in 1996, but rushed for only 639 yards total in his final three seasons and was done at 30. Rison started going downhill at 28; Green at 27. Gilbert Brown was never the same player after he turned 27. Simmons was out of the league before he hit 30.

[esoxx]

It's silly for Uncle Cliff to compare 2006 to 1995 for one simple reason: the '95 Packer team had Brett Favre coming into his prime and on the verge of greatness....'06 doesn't. If Favre was 26 again maybe we could talk about it. He would be worth 4-5 wins alone on this team this year.

[gbpackfan]

You're right......Favre isn't on the verge of greatness, he is great! You'll see. Don't write the guy off because he had ONE losing season. Damn, we're spoiled!!!!

[MacCool606]

Boy - you read all of the failures of the moves the Pack tried to make in 1995 and it's depressing. And some is topical - people don't want to come to, or play in GB (Walker) because of the way we are treating some players. But what the article doesn't talk about was the player evaluation of the backups. I doubt very much that Wolf or Holmgren were shocked that these players performed - they had to see them in practice.

So, the difference between 1995 and 2006 may be what the coach and GM think they have in reserve. In hindsight, Wolf knew what he had - I trust TT has an idea - McCarthy has to trust TT.

That's what I miss about Wolf - he was usually candid about what he thought. With TT you never know. But I'm also looking forward to Training Camp to see what TT knows.

[esoxx]

You're right......Favre isn't on the verge of greatness, he is great! You'll see. Don't write the guy off because he had ONE losing season. Damn, we're spoiled!!!!

I see you completely missed my point or misinterpreted it. The whole point of the article is wondering if this could be another flashpoint to a great run, like '95 - '98 was. It's a flawed comparison for the reason I originally cited.

[Scott Campbell]

You're right......Favre isn't on the verge of greatness, he is great! You'll see. Don't write the guy off because he had ONE losing season. Damn, we're spoiled!!!!

I see you completely missed my point or misinterpreted it. The whole point of the article is wondering if this could be another flashpoint to a great run, like '95 - '98 was. It's a flawed comparison for the reason I originally cited.

That, and no Reggie like player either.

[Merlin]

I think early on Holgren had a lot to do with Favre. He calmed him down after one gun slung awry. No other coach did that with him after that. Favre almost always came out miss firing every game back then. Once he calmed down, he was the best. In the Sherman era, Favre would come out the same way and stay that way more times then not. I think the difference in Favre's career was Holmgren. If Holgren was still here, there would be zero dispute who is/was the #1 QB of all time and the Packer's would have more Super Bowl appearances.

[Noodle]

You know, I generally agree with this, but I don't remember Favre ever getting over his problems with Dallas. Every time he would go down there it would seem to be a disaster. I remember one theory was the crown at Texas Stadium was high and that resulted in Favre overthrowing receivers in the flats.

Don't know if that's true, but, even with Holmgren, Favre never got over his Dallas curse. Galls me to this day. I really hate Dallas.

[mraynrand]

Favre really emerged in 1995, and that was the major difference. Brooks was a decent receiver, but not a great one. The Duo of Chmura mostly blocking and Jackson running free came on late in 95 and worked through most of 96. That befuddled defenses. But Favre was the key. He made plays that he won't be able to make in 2006 (and hasn't really made since before the injury in 2002). For the Packers to go deep into the playoffs this year would require at least one guy on the team to break through the way Favre did in 95 - basically, you need an all pro to emerge at another position. Hawk? Collins? Woodson? Running Back? I just don't see it, but it could happen.

[Murphy37]

Great thread. I had forgotton about the controversy of that off season, except for Keith Jackson. I remember thinking, "Screw him if he doesn't want to play here." It wasn't long before I dropped that bitterness. The article did get me a bit pumped for the possibility of some of our young punks to mature into key players on the team. We have a lot of them.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I don't know what to think about the Packers, but I am worried.

But I think I remember being worried before the 1995 season too! I can't remember what year it was, but they lost a lot of players in the offseason, I figured they were screwed. Perhaps it was '95.

I was watching "Sidelines", a TV show with WI sports writers. Man, those guys were very pessimistic about the Packers offense. Offensive line very sketchy. Driver only proven wideout. RB's beyone Gado iffy.

I guess we won't know about Coston & Cooledge & Jennings and the rest of the WunderKinds until the season gets going. Hope springs eternal

[Fritz]

Good comments, K-town. I think fans (and sometimes coaches) get infatuated with "their" guys and it's hard to believe that someone else could just waltz in and take over. But it happens all the time.

I think the Pack is another year or maybe two away from that comparison to '95, but I do think it's coming with a strong draft or two ahead.

[Chubbyhubby]

I don't know, it could be just me but I think the Pack is going turn things around next year. You have to remember with all the injuries we had in 05 we lost 5 games no more than 3 points or less! A NFL record. We are a better Defensive Football team without question.

It's going to be a fun year!

[chain_gang]

I can see Green Bay doing very well next year, as long as the injury bug doesn't hit. I also can see green bay being mediorce next year just as easily. I don't see however a dismal season like last year, and I consider a mediorce season around 9-7. However to really even compare the two teams 1995 and the present is kind of ridiculous. The packers already had a solid core with the young guys entering their second and third year in the leagues. They also had a winning record the year before, and for the most part the same coaching staff with a few leaving, not a huge turnover like this year.