pbmax
12-21-2007, 09:10 PM
By one measure, anyway. And nothing here would account for the WR matchup. Still, Woodson looks pretty solid.
From the stat obsessed at footballoutsiders.com
Link: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/12/21/ramblings/stat-analysis/5920/
Charting Defensive Backs 2007
12/21/2007
by Aaron Schatz
As promised earlier today in the Game Charters Speak piece, here’s a look at our early game charting stats for defensive backs. Last year we did this in the FOX blog (RIP) but we haven’t really gotten to any of the numbers this season.
These numbers are based on charting through Week 13. The average team has had 10.5 games charted so far, so it’s a good amount of data. These numbers won’t be quite as accurate as the ones that show up in Pro Football Prospectus, because I don’t have the time to break down and adjust for when we have two defenders listed for one pass, or Hole in Zone, and so on. Still, they give us a reasonable idea of who is having a good season or a bad one.
Thanks again to all the game charters for putting in so much time, and Bill Moore for organizing everything, and Derek Marr, who is the intern responsible for cleaning up the charting data this year so that it is sortable.
Each of the following tables is based on a minimum of 35 charted passes, and I’m only listing defensive backs. These numbers may be a little different from what ran earlier today in the comments about New Orleans, since those were only through Week 11. Success rate is defined here; yards per pass includes all passes where this defensive back is listed as the defender, not just completions. Remember, these are not adjusted for opponent or which defensive back had to cover the other team’s star receiver more often.
Best Success Rate
Charles Woodson, GB: 70%
Roderick Hood, ARI: 66%
Fakhir Brown, STL: 65%
Mike McKenzie, NO: 64%
Anthony Henry, DAL: 63%
Jabari Greer, BUF: 63%
Dunta Robinson, HOU: 63%
Richard Marshall, CAR: 63%
Champ Bailey, DEN: 63%
Will Allen, MIA: 62%
Asante Samuel, NE: 62%
Ty Law, KC: 60%
Terrence McGee, BUF: 60%
Well, there’s your first big shock in the coverage stats. Fakhir Brown? The Rams defense sucks. Fakhir Brown sucks, or at least, so we thought. Fakhir Brown was 56th in Success Rate last year. I have a feeling this is our early-season sample size fluke; last year, if you remember, Fred Thomas was pretty good through the first few weeks before he got all flame-o-riffic at midseason. Still… to give an example, we have eight passes charted with Brown as the main defender in Week 7, and only one of those was complete, a 12-yard pass to Nate Burleson early in the first quarter. Seattle wins 33-6, but for some reason Hasselbeck can’t throw to anyone covered by Brown. Then in Week 12, we have another six Hasselbeck passes charted with Brown as the defender, with two first downs, two incompletes, an interception, and a 10-yard completion on third-and-19 with the Seahawks on the Rams 25. So we know Brown can cover Seahawks, at least.
I’m also shocked to see Ty Law here. Since he signed in Kansas City, he has looked awful every time I watch the Chiefs. Last year he had a 43 percent Success Rate, which ranked him 74th among cornerbacks. I have no idea if he’s playing better, or this is scheme, or the improved Kansas City pass rush making it harder for quarterbacks, or just sample size. Terrence McGee also had a 43 percent Success Rate last year, so he’s a surprise, but at least he’s still a young player. Law looked like a shell of the great cornerback he once was.
For the most part, the rest of these guys are players you would expect to be near the top. The sample sizes of pass coverage are small enough that being first instead of eighth really does not mean much. What’s important is to be good in these stats year after year, like Bailey and Samuel. Note that Greer and Robinson are both at exactly 35 pass targets, which was my minimum for being ranked.
For those curious, out of the few linebackers with lots of pass targets, the clear standout is A.J. Hawk, with a Success Rate of 69 percent.
Best Yards per Pass
Roderick Hood, ARI: 4.3
Asante Samuel, NE: 4.5
Will Allen, MIA: 4.5
Terrence Newman, DAL: 4.7
Jabari Greer, BUF: 5.0
Terrence McGee, BUF: 5.0
Mike McKenzie, NO: 5.5
Tye Hill, STL: 5.8
Jason Craft, NO: 5.9
Anthony Henry, DAL: 6.0
Deshea Townsend, PIT: 6.0
Jarrod Bush, GB: 6.0
Mostly the same guys. With a Success Rate of just 49 percent but only 6.0 yards per pass, Deshea Townsend is apparently king of the short third-down completion. And look, another Rams cornerback whose presence on this list makes no sense. The safeties are listed with terrible numbers so I do need to check if the Rams stuff is getting marked accurately, or if we’re mistakenly penalizing the deep help when the man corner gets burned. Also, Lenny Walls does suck, so at least there’s one Rams corner whose numbers make sense (10.2 yards per pass).
Worst Success Rate
Jason David, NO: 32%
Stanley Wilson, DET: 36%
Johnathan Joseph, CIN: 39%
Leon Hall, CIN: 40%
Drayton Florence, SD: 41%
Marlin Jackson, IND: 41%
Lito Sheppard, PHI: 41%
Roy Williams, DAL: 41%
Eric Green, ARI: 42%
Darrelle Revis, NYJ: 42%
Atari Bigby, GB: 42%
David must have been better in Weeks 12 and 13, but he still has ridiculously bad numbers that make you wonder why anyone would ever throw to a receiver covered by Mike McKenzie. The Bengals have no pass defense. So much for my comments in the book that Drayton Florence is better than Quentin Jammer. Lito Sheppard has now gone from terrible to amazing to terrible in the three years we’ve been charting, but at least this backs up the comments in the Game Charters Speak article that he has not been as good this year. A couple of the safeties who get burned the most when they have to play man are here, including our new favorite whipping boy, Atari Bigby. Sorry, Atari, we kid because we love. Well, because we love nearly every other player on the Packers who isn’t you.
Worst Yards per Pass
Jason David, NO: 14.5
Hole in Zone, 11.9
Yes, Jason David is worse than throwing at a hole in the zone. Fred Thomas gave up 9.3 yards per pass last year. Egads. I guess not every player is meant to play in every defensive scheme.
Michael Huff, OAK: 10.8
Stanley Wilson, DET: 10.7
Drayton Florence, SD: 10.6
Corey Ivy, BAL: 10.0
Leon Hall, CIN: 9.6
Patrick Surtain, KC: 9.3
David Barrett, NYJ: 9.1
Cedric Griffin, MIN: 9.0
Al Harris, GB: 8.8
Al Harris also has a 47 percent Success Rate so far this year. We love Al Harris, but he’s had an off year even while the team around him is soaring, and that Pro Bowl selection was a lifetime achievement award.
Most Targets per Charted Pass
Here are the players most often listed as DEFENDER1 compared to the number of passes charted for their defense. We can’t really do fewest targets without correcting for games played and a bunch of other stuff that takes lots of time.
Jacques Reeves, the Human Target, DAL: 21%
Nate Clements, SF: 20%
Will Allen, MIA: 20%
Ike Taylor, PIT: 20%
Marcus Trufant, SEA: 19%
Sam Madison, NYG: 19%
Kelvin Hayden, IND: 19%
Kelly Jennings, SEA: 19%
Dre’ Bly (aka “away from Champ Bailey”), DEN: 18%
Nick Harper, TEN: 18%
DeAngelo Hall, ATL: 18%
Darelle Revis, NYJ, 18%
Somebody should tell the teams playing Miami that Will Allen is a lot better than Michael Lehan. Lehan has a 47 percent Success Rate and 8.1 yards per pass. Other than New Orleans, that’s probably the biggest discrepancy between the two starting corners on one team.
Oh, and one more note. To whoever told me earlier this year that our binky Leigh Bodden is not playing as well this year, well, you are correct. His Success Rate is just 52 percent, and he’s letting up 7.8 yards per pass. That makes me sad.
From the stat obsessed at footballoutsiders.com
Link: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/12/21/ramblings/stat-analysis/5920/
Charting Defensive Backs 2007
12/21/2007
by Aaron Schatz
As promised earlier today in the Game Charters Speak piece, here’s a look at our early game charting stats for defensive backs. Last year we did this in the FOX blog (RIP) but we haven’t really gotten to any of the numbers this season.
These numbers are based on charting through Week 13. The average team has had 10.5 games charted so far, so it’s a good amount of data. These numbers won’t be quite as accurate as the ones that show up in Pro Football Prospectus, because I don’t have the time to break down and adjust for when we have two defenders listed for one pass, or Hole in Zone, and so on. Still, they give us a reasonable idea of who is having a good season or a bad one.
Thanks again to all the game charters for putting in so much time, and Bill Moore for organizing everything, and Derek Marr, who is the intern responsible for cleaning up the charting data this year so that it is sortable.
Each of the following tables is based on a minimum of 35 charted passes, and I’m only listing defensive backs. These numbers may be a little different from what ran earlier today in the comments about New Orleans, since those were only through Week 11. Success rate is defined here; yards per pass includes all passes where this defensive back is listed as the defender, not just completions. Remember, these are not adjusted for opponent or which defensive back had to cover the other team’s star receiver more often.
Best Success Rate
Charles Woodson, GB: 70%
Roderick Hood, ARI: 66%
Fakhir Brown, STL: 65%
Mike McKenzie, NO: 64%
Anthony Henry, DAL: 63%
Jabari Greer, BUF: 63%
Dunta Robinson, HOU: 63%
Richard Marshall, CAR: 63%
Champ Bailey, DEN: 63%
Will Allen, MIA: 62%
Asante Samuel, NE: 62%
Ty Law, KC: 60%
Terrence McGee, BUF: 60%
Well, there’s your first big shock in the coverage stats. Fakhir Brown? The Rams defense sucks. Fakhir Brown sucks, or at least, so we thought. Fakhir Brown was 56th in Success Rate last year. I have a feeling this is our early-season sample size fluke; last year, if you remember, Fred Thomas was pretty good through the first few weeks before he got all flame-o-riffic at midseason. Still… to give an example, we have eight passes charted with Brown as the main defender in Week 7, and only one of those was complete, a 12-yard pass to Nate Burleson early in the first quarter. Seattle wins 33-6, but for some reason Hasselbeck can’t throw to anyone covered by Brown. Then in Week 12, we have another six Hasselbeck passes charted with Brown as the defender, with two first downs, two incompletes, an interception, and a 10-yard completion on third-and-19 with the Seahawks on the Rams 25. So we know Brown can cover Seahawks, at least.
I’m also shocked to see Ty Law here. Since he signed in Kansas City, he has looked awful every time I watch the Chiefs. Last year he had a 43 percent Success Rate, which ranked him 74th among cornerbacks. I have no idea if he’s playing better, or this is scheme, or the improved Kansas City pass rush making it harder for quarterbacks, or just sample size. Terrence McGee also had a 43 percent Success Rate last year, so he’s a surprise, but at least he’s still a young player. Law looked like a shell of the great cornerback he once was.
For the most part, the rest of these guys are players you would expect to be near the top. The sample sizes of pass coverage are small enough that being first instead of eighth really does not mean much. What’s important is to be good in these stats year after year, like Bailey and Samuel. Note that Greer and Robinson are both at exactly 35 pass targets, which was my minimum for being ranked.
For those curious, out of the few linebackers with lots of pass targets, the clear standout is A.J. Hawk, with a Success Rate of 69 percent.
Best Yards per Pass
Roderick Hood, ARI: 4.3
Asante Samuel, NE: 4.5
Will Allen, MIA: 4.5
Terrence Newman, DAL: 4.7
Jabari Greer, BUF: 5.0
Terrence McGee, BUF: 5.0
Mike McKenzie, NO: 5.5
Tye Hill, STL: 5.8
Jason Craft, NO: 5.9
Anthony Henry, DAL: 6.0
Deshea Townsend, PIT: 6.0
Jarrod Bush, GB: 6.0
Mostly the same guys. With a Success Rate of just 49 percent but only 6.0 yards per pass, Deshea Townsend is apparently king of the short third-down completion. And look, another Rams cornerback whose presence on this list makes no sense. The safeties are listed with terrible numbers so I do need to check if the Rams stuff is getting marked accurately, or if we’re mistakenly penalizing the deep help when the man corner gets burned. Also, Lenny Walls does suck, so at least there’s one Rams corner whose numbers make sense (10.2 yards per pass).
Worst Success Rate
Jason David, NO: 32%
Stanley Wilson, DET: 36%
Johnathan Joseph, CIN: 39%
Leon Hall, CIN: 40%
Drayton Florence, SD: 41%
Marlin Jackson, IND: 41%
Lito Sheppard, PHI: 41%
Roy Williams, DAL: 41%
Eric Green, ARI: 42%
Darrelle Revis, NYJ: 42%
Atari Bigby, GB: 42%
David must have been better in Weeks 12 and 13, but he still has ridiculously bad numbers that make you wonder why anyone would ever throw to a receiver covered by Mike McKenzie. The Bengals have no pass defense. So much for my comments in the book that Drayton Florence is better than Quentin Jammer. Lito Sheppard has now gone from terrible to amazing to terrible in the three years we’ve been charting, but at least this backs up the comments in the Game Charters Speak article that he has not been as good this year. A couple of the safeties who get burned the most when they have to play man are here, including our new favorite whipping boy, Atari Bigby. Sorry, Atari, we kid because we love. Well, because we love nearly every other player on the Packers who isn’t you.
Worst Yards per Pass
Jason David, NO: 14.5
Hole in Zone, 11.9
Yes, Jason David is worse than throwing at a hole in the zone. Fred Thomas gave up 9.3 yards per pass last year. Egads. I guess not every player is meant to play in every defensive scheme.
Michael Huff, OAK: 10.8
Stanley Wilson, DET: 10.7
Drayton Florence, SD: 10.6
Corey Ivy, BAL: 10.0
Leon Hall, CIN: 9.6
Patrick Surtain, KC: 9.3
David Barrett, NYJ: 9.1
Cedric Griffin, MIN: 9.0
Al Harris, GB: 8.8
Al Harris also has a 47 percent Success Rate so far this year. We love Al Harris, but he’s had an off year even while the team around him is soaring, and that Pro Bowl selection was a lifetime achievement award.
Most Targets per Charted Pass
Here are the players most often listed as DEFENDER1 compared to the number of passes charted for their defense. We can’t really do fewest targets without correcting for games played and a bunch of other stuff that takes lots of time.
Jacques Reeves, the Human Target, DAL: 21%
Nate Clements, SF: 20%
Will Allen, MIA: 20%
Ike Taylor, PIT: 20%
Marcus Trufant, SEA: 19%
Sam Madison, NYG: 19%
Kelvin Hayden, IND: 19%
Kelly Jennings, SEA: 19%
Dre’ Bly (aka “away from Champ Bailey”), DEN: 18%
Nick Harper, TEN: 18%
DeAngelo Hall, ATL: 18%
Darelle Revis, NYJ, 18%
Somebody should tell the teams playing Miami that Will Allen is a lot better than Michael Lehan. Lehan has a 47 percent Success Rate and 8.1 yards per pass. Other than New Orleans, that’s probably the biggest discrepancy between the two starting corners on one team.
Oh, and one more note. To whoever told me earlier this year that our binky Leigh Bodden is not playing as well this year, well, you are correct. His Success Rate is just 52 percent, and he’s letting up 7.8 yards per pass. That makes me sad.