Article - Fosco's Predictions

[MJZiggy]

Our resident number cruncher and math guru has made his predictions for the playoffs, and here they are:


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[HarveyWallbangers]

I think Fosco's penalty yards rankings should take into account the opposing team's penalty yards. We are in the top 4 in penalties, but we are also in the top 2 in penalties called on our opponents. Our opponents have actually had a few more penalties than us. Seems like we've had more than our fair share of crews that call a lot of penalties.

[Fosco33]

I think Fosco's penalty yards rankings should take into account the opposing team's penalty yards. We are in the top 4 in penalties, but we are also in the top 2 in penalties called on our opponents. Our opponents have actually had a few more penalties than us. Seems like we've had more than our fair share of crews that call a lot of penalties.

Good point, Harv. I only just recently added that into the calculation because I think it shows the 'mental' ability of a team (play within the rules). With the Packers being very young, it doesn't surprise me that for teams remaining in the playoffs, the Packers have the most penalty yardage against (and for).

Either way - it's only a very slight adjustment (less than 3%) to the Calculated Ranking.

[Fosco33]

A few things to note on the playoff rankings:

1. Packers are ranked higher than the Cowboys
2. Over the past 5 or so years, the predictions have been almost 70% accurate in regular season play
3. I didn't pick the Super Bowl winner in the bracket - mostly because it shows the Pack losing to the Pats.... in my heart, I know these are just stats and numbers. It doesn't have the intangible of the pressure to protect a perfect season or a future 1st ballot HOF QB's desire for a magic ending.

Most other sports predictions have some road upsets, I'd say without using the calculation - I'd take the Jags and Skins to cover or win.

The above rankings do not - regardless of the wild card outcome - I don't see those teams winning in the divisional round so the bracket should hold true for a little while.

[MJZiggy]

One down...

[Partial]

I bet Fos does pretty well with this little set-up he's got here. Dude is sharp as a tack.

[Fosco33]

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers

Offense – Packers
• Packers have a better yard/play average (6 vs. 5.3) and a better 3rd down % (43 vs. 35)

Defense – Even (slight edge to Packers)
• Both teams average 5 yards allowed/play and are stingy on 3rd down (Packers have best in league with 33% though)

Time of Possession – Packers (slightly)

Turnover Margin – Seahawks
• Packers are 8th ranked playoff team (+4); Seahawks were (+10) in regular season

Points Scored/Game – Packers
• Packers own the edge by about a FG (27.2 to 24.6)

Points Allowed/Game – Even
• Tied at 18.2/game

[MadtownPacker]

Nice start Fos, but this JAX/PITT game is not looking good.

[Fosco33]

Nice start Fos, but this JAX/PITT game is not looking good.

Like I said above - I would've taken the Jags to cover or win despite the rankings.

[GrnBay007]

This is great Fosco.

I am a bit more nervous about Seattle now then I was though.

[Zool]

Those 4/5 games are always brutal. They usually have about the same record, or sometimes the 5 has the better record, but finished second in their own division.

[MJZiggy]

Please see the homepage (http://www.packerrats.com) for an update to this story.

[woodbuck27]

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers

Offense – Packers
• Packers have a better yard/play average (6 vs. 5.3) and a better 3rd down % (43 vs. 35)

Defense – Even (slight edge to Packers)
• Both teams average 5 yards allowed/play and are stingy on 3rd down (Packers have best in league with 33% though)

Time of Possession – Packers (slightly)

Turnover Margin – Seahawks
• Packers are 8th ranked playoff team (+4); Seahawks were (+10) in regular season

Points Scored/Game – Packers
• Packers own the edge by about a FG (27.2 to 24.6)

Points Allowed/Game – Even
• Tied at 18.2/game

I didn't get all the predictions fr. TSN but picked this up.

TSN has the Seahawks over us 28-25.

TSN has the Boys edging the Giants with both teams scoring in the 20's and Dallas winning by a FG as well.

I have no idea who wins bet. the Pack and the Seahawks. I predict a very close match-up and pickem. Both teams are close on 'D' and the Seahaws pass rush is formidable. Our OL has to play big as Seattle has a solid rush and will pressure favre into a long day. I see the matchup of ST's also playing a key role in the outcome. We have to have solid punt coverage as the Seattle punt returner is very good (averaging about 13 yards per return in the regular season) as I re-call that. He had about 14 yards a return Vs the BUCS.

Favre has to be patient and not try the deep pass or the Seahawks secondary will burn him. I hope that we establish some running game and MM has Favre working a lot of slants and run plays as that has been our strength on "O". Also Favre has to get production at TE in this game.

Our linebackers have to step it up to help support the DL in stopping the Seahawks running game. We can't allow S. Alexander to get in gear. The secondary has to play at it's best as well and not as soft as we often have seen in the last half dozen or so games.

It's time now for our "D" to step up and challenge - put some heat on or we are one and out.

GO PACK GO !

[Fosco33]

What to expect
Simple fact – the Packers are the better team and they own the 1st round bye and home divisional game (81% likelihood of a NFC Championship game). After losing to the Vikings and Falcons at home in the ‘00s, a victory tomorrow would cap off a successful 7-1 home campaign (9-1 dating back to last year) and return the “Lambeau Advantage.”

Green Bay’s defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher at Lambeau Field this year, and Shaun Alexander has not had a hundred yard game since September. We should expect a banged up Matt Hasselbeck to test the Packer secondary with his talented group of wide receivers. The four wide receiver set vs. the Packer’s modified press/Cover 2 scheme should allow underneath routes and check downs to running backs to have more success. Seattle’s aggressive defense may have trouble against Favre and company if he’s successful with lots of short slants/quick outs and the “YAC attack” (over half of Favre’s 4000+ passing yards were after the catch).

Statistically, the Packers finished the year with a very healthy offense compared to the other playoff teams (4th in Points Scored, 2nd in Yards/Play, 5th on 3rd Down percentage). Seattle’s offense is statistically inferior to the Packers (7th in Points Scored, 7th in Yards/Play, and last in third down percentage). Both teams have decent defenses (middle of the road on all key metrics).

Keys to the Game:

How will the Packer safeties respond to being tested by Seattle’s 4 WR sets?
Will the Packer offensive guards hold up the likely aggressive blitz packages and give Favre some protection?
Will Ryan Grant and the offensive line match up with the front seven of Seattle after only allowing 52 yards to Clinton Portis last week?
Will Seattle continue it’s impressive turnover production (2.1/game)?
Will Seattle’s DEs have a field day against Mark Tauscher and co?
Can Seattle overcome the elements, home field disadvantage and injuries?

Safeties played alright. Atari was attacking as the name suggests.
OLine had their best game of the year.

Forgetting the 1st three snaps, Grant had an awesome game. Just the 7th player to get 200+ yards in the playoffs.

Seattle got their 2 turnovers - early.

Tauscher took care of it - the snow helped.

Seattle couldn't withstand the momentum of the crowd and one heck of a performance by Favre.

A-M-A-Z-I-N-G

[woodbuck27]

What to expect
Simple fact – the Packers are the better team and they own the 1st round bye and home divisional game (81% likelihood of a NFC Championship game). After losing to the Vikings and Falcons at home in the ‘00s, a victory tomorrow would cap off a successful 7-1 home campaign (9-1 dating back to last year) and return the “Lambeau Advantage.”

Green Bay’s defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher at Lambeau Field this year, and Shaun Alexander has not had a hundred yard game since September. We should expect a banged up Matt Hasselbeck to test the Packer secondary with his talented group of wide receivers. The four wide receiver set vs. the Packer’s modified press/Cover 2 scheme should allow underneath routes and check downs to running backs to have more success. Seattle’s aggressive defense may have trouble against Favre and company if he’s successful with lots of short slants/quick outs and the “YAC attack” (over half of Favre’s 4000+ passing yards were after the catch).

Statistically, the Packers finished the year with a very healthy offense compared to the other playoff teams (4th in Points Scored, 2nd in Yards/Play, 5th on 3rd Down percentage). Seattle’s offense is statistically inferior to the Packers (7th in Points Scored, 7th in Yards/Play, and last in third down percentage). Both teams have decent defenses (middle of the road on all key metrics).

Keys to the Game:

How will the Packer safeties respond to being tested by Seattle’s 4 WR sets?
Will the Packer offensive guards hold up the likely aggressive blitz packages and give Favre some protection?
Will Ryan Grant and the offensive line match up with the front seven of Seattle after only allowing 52 yards to Clinton Portis last week?
Will Seattle continue it’s impressive turnover production (2.1/game)?
Will Seattle’s DEs have a field day against Mark Tauscher and co?
Can Seattle overcome the elements, home field disadvantage and injuries?

Safeties played alright. Atari was attacking as the name suggests.
OLine had their best game of the year.

Forgetting the 1st three snaps, Grant had an awesome game. Just the 7th player to get 200+ yards in the playoffs.

Seattle got their 2 turnovers - early.

Tauscher took care of it - the snow helped.

Seattle couldn't withstand the momentum of the crowd and one heck of a performance by Favre.

A-M-A-Z-I-N-G

I don't know when I last saw a better overall performance by a Packer team. I was never prouder to be a Packer fan that during that game. Brett Favre deserved all he felt after the last several years of mostly hollowness and total frustration.

It was a great team effort, as both lines played very well, and the linebackers attacked as I hoped they would. Great to see KGB play a fine game and maybe we'll get momentum off this super come from behind win. The secondary challenged as well the entire game or went with it. Not laying back as I so often saw this season.They played like a secondary that is serious shit to win, always challenging.

The safety positions:

Atari Bigby mmmm! Nice game for him, showing us and the media that he's a hitter. Nick Collins wasn't as invisabe. Al Harris and Charles Woodson getting it done and always alert and in the game. Close to getting called out on penaltys but that game was ours.

Anyone sensing that a super Bowl with the Packers facing the Pat's might sell a lot of ink? I know just how popular the Cowboys are, but Brett Favre is right up there as a marqee ad in blazing lights. He's still the most exciting man in the NFL as I see it.

He can also match-up against Tom Brady. Just ask Tom Brady. I'm really somewhere inside of me, really feeling this. I want it so bad for Favre and Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff and the Packer team. For TT too. :)

When I saw Favre's focus, I really believed down 14-0 that we'd be OK. Favre was Favre. He showed us the strong leadership that few QB's will ever match. he wasn't intense rather focused properly and wouldn't be denied.

That's a lot of POWER.

RYAN GRANT well my Ohhhh my, simply awesome. A huge effort after a terrible start and he as well, still focused after those two fumbles. That young man has it with excellent composure, personality and attitude.

Greg Jennings has it as well. My concerns for him was related to - COULD HE TAKE THE POUNDING? He seems to be in the flow now.

Favre and Grant and Jennings with DD and that T-Formation in the backfield look formidable. The TE's are doing fine too. I know it was only one game. The take it one game at a time philosphy is the right way. No on and off the bandwagon. It's all about patience and building and proper preparation and MM has all that in place this season.

Mike McCarthy gets a ton of credit fr. this Packer fan. I'm very pleased (HAPPY) for Mike McCarthy. Where I'm at right now as a Packer fan is that the win yesterday makes the season for me.

We all must feel that there is now more in our team but no matter what happens next Sunday I know Favre's back. Hopefully TT gets us over the top next season. I pray that he gets just there. It's time for that HONEST bare to the bones look at our roster and for TT to get us there.

No more half ways. Decision making and committment and that's what we needs are what we need to se fr. Ted Thompson. For him to step up.

He has to do that for the team and it's fans. It's all about the Packer fans.

When asked what he liked best about playing in Green bay. . .RB Ryan Grant responded:

'' The Green Bay Packer fans ''. YES !!

It's now not two three seasons fr. now. We may get into the Super Bowl this season? Not many of the most ardent Packer fans would have predicted that without a smile fr. a fellow Packer fan and possibly a firm head shake or a '' are you out of your cotten pickin' ''.

The 13-3 season was unexpected. That win yesterday was the icing on the cake. That cake tasted GREAT. I'm quite full too. :)

My Packer hat stays on my head every waking hour between now and the end of Packers at Cowboys or Giants at Packers. Maybe I'll even sleep with it on.no don,t want to put any crease,s in it. :) If I take it off after that matchup next weekend? It will be with a prayer of hope for 2008 and the Super Bowl for Favre and Company. Brett Favre is definitely still the face of our team. I sense the players are in some way playing for Favre or at5 least are caught up in his positive influence and enthusiasm.

He's a Hell of a leader by example Packer fans. I love that man.

I believe that the team is playing for themselves as a team but also playing to win for Favre and Mike McCarthy. MM hand his staff have certainly put in the effort this entire off and season.

Outstanding.

PACKERS FOREVER!!

[woodbuck27]

Well it's the GIANTS @ Lambeau Field. The fans will be wild.

HEAVY READY. :)

PACKERS FOREVER.

[MadtownPacker]

You're still alive pachuco.

[MJZiggy]

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