THURSDAY, April 6, 2006, 3:43 p.m.
An early '06 Prediction
It's insane to try and pick games in April, but let's have a little fun with the schedule.
Here's my early line on the Packers with Brett Favre and without Favre.
with Favre 6-10. wins N.O., St.L., Ariz, S.F., NYJ, Det(H)
w/o Favre, 2-14. wins N.O., Det(H)
THURSDAY, April 6, 2006, 2:50 p.m.
Tom Brady & A Fallacy
One of the most absurd questions you'll hear asked is this: Why draft a quarterback early when you can find a Tom Brady in the sixth round?
Here's why. Here are the other quarterbacks taken in the sixth round since the first common draft following the NFL-AFL merger.
Derek Anderson
2004 - Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker
2003 - Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger
2002 - J.T. O'Sullivan
2001 - Josh Booty, Josh Heupel
2000 - Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider
1999 - None
1998 - John Dutton, Matt Hasselbeck
1997 - Mike Cherry, Chuck Clements
1996 - Spence Fischer, Mike Cawley
1995 - Jerry Colquitt, Craig Whelihan
1994 - Jim Miller
1993 - None
1992 - Jeff Blake
1991 - None
1990 - John Friesz, Mike Buck
1989 -- Jeff Francis, Rodney Peete
1988 -- Don McPherson, Scott Secules, Stan Humphries
1987 -- None
1986 -- Mark Rypien, Stan Gelbaugh
1985 -- Steve Bono, Rusty Hilger, Scott Barry
1984 -- Ben Bennett, Randy Wright, Terry Nugent, John Witkowski
1983 -- Reggie Collier, Babe Laufenberg
1982 -- Mike Kelley, Mike Machurek
1981 -- None
1980 -- Scott Brunner
1979 -- Mike Moroski
1978 -- Mike Rieker
1977 -- Vince Evans, Tommy Duniven
1976 -- Scott Bull
1975 -- Bob Avellini, Tom Shuman, Dennis Franklin
1974 -- Jesse Freitas
1973 -- None
1972 -- None
1971 -- Scott Hunter, Frank Harris
1970 -- Bob Cuthberth, Rusty Clark, Mike Cilek
1969 -- None
1968 -- Kim Hammond, Dewey Warren
1967 -- Terry Southall, Tim Jones, Virgil Carter, Rick Egloff
That makes for a total of 66. Two, Brady and Rypien, or 3% have led teams to victory in a Super Bowl. Three -- Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck and Brady -- or 4.5% have a passer rating of 80 or better.
Two of the 66 were drafted by the Packers and briefly started. Wright's career passer rating was 61.4; Hunter's 55.0.
THURSDAY, April 6, 2006, 1:38 p.m.
Second-round quarterbacks
Think landing a quarterback of Brett Favre's ability in the second round was a fluke?
Here are the other quarterbacks selected in the second round since 1991, the year Favre was drafted: Browning Nagle (1991), Matt Blundin (1992), Tony Sacca (1992), Billy Joe Hobert (1993), Todd Collins (1995), Kordell Stewart (1995), Tony Banks (1996), Jake Plummer (1997), Charlie Batch (1998), Shaun King (1999), Drew Brees (2001), Quincy Carter (2001) and Marques Tuiasosopo (2001).
How many of the 13 have been worth a hoot? Plummer and Brees, although is either one good enough to win a Super Bowl? Stewart or Banks probably were the next best.
So if you think the Packers might find another Favre in the second round, think again. In the 39 common drafts since the NFL-AFL merger, there have been only five other good quarterbacks taken in the second round beside Brees and Plummer.
The others were Randall Cunningham (1985), Boomer Esiason (1984), Neil Lomax (1981), Ron Jaworski (1973), Ken Stabler (1968).
So what are the odds of landing a quality quarterback in the second round? One out of the 32 teams will strike it rich about every 5 1/2 years. What are the chances of landing a Hall of Fame quarterback in the second round? It happens once every 39 years.
In other words, if Aaron Rodgers isn't the answer, the Packers probably are going to stumble along without a quarterback for a long time unless they draft one in the first round. And even then, it'll be a huge risk unless they finish with the worst record in the league and get the No. 1 pick sometime soon.
THURSDAY, April 6, 2006, 1:14 p.m.
Why a quarterback?
Someone asked in yesterday's chat: Why would the Packers consider a quarterback in the first round without knowing if Aaron Rodgers is going to be a bust?
The best answer might be: Joey Harrington. The Detroit Lions drafted Harrington with the third pick in the 2002 draft and proceeded as though he was their quarterback of the future, despite growing evidence that he was regressing. Missing on Harrington has thwarted the Lions' rebuilding efforts. They're 19-45 since drafting Harrington and now they've finally admitted making a mistake. But despite having adequate talent everywhere else, the Lions probably are doomed to at least two or three more years of losing while their search for an adequate quarterback continues.
On the flip side, here's why the Packers should be wary of taking a quarterback with the fifth pick.
Since 1991, the year Brett Favre was drafted, eight quarterbacks have been taken with the first pick in the draft and most of those have panned out or figure to down the road. Peyton Manning (1998), Michael Vick (2001) and Carson Palmer (2003) were everything that their teams expected them to be, although Palmer's future is suddenly clouded by injury. Drew Bledsoe (1993) maybe hasn't quite lived up to what you'd expect of a No. 1 pick, but he has been a starter for 12 years and thrown for 3,000 or more yards in nine of them, including 1996 when he led New England to the Super Bowl. And Eli Manning (2004) appears to be on course to becoming a star quarterback. The jury is still out on David Carr (2002) and Alex Smith (2005). The one bust of the eight was Tim Couch (1999).
For the most part, those eight were viewed as franchise quarterbacks and that's why they were taken No. 1. Teams simply aren't going to pass on quarterbacks who seem destined for greatness.
But this year there doesn't appear to a quarterback who falls into that category. Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler all might go within the top 10 picks, but obviously scouts have concerns about each one. Otherwise, as good a prospect as Reggie Bush is -- and he may be one of the best ever -- he'd be taking a backseat to a franchise quarterback.
And what history tells us is that if a quarterback doesn't go No. 1, he's a risk. Again, since 1991, 12 other quarterbacks -- in addition to the eight taken with the first pick -- have been selected in the top 10.
Of those 12, two have panned out: Steve McNair, selected third in 1995; and Donovan McNabb, selected second in 1999. The jury is still out on two others: Byron Leftwich, taken seventh in 2003; and Philip Rivers, taken fourth in 2004.
The other eight were: David Klingler (6th, 1992), Rick Mirer (2nd, 1993), Heath Shuler (3rd, 1994), Trent Dilfer (6th, 1994), Kerry Collins (5th, 1995), Ryan Leaf (2nd, 1998), Akili Smith (3rd, 1999) and Harrington (3rd, 2002).
In all, 35 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round over the past 15 drafts, including one supplemental pick. In addition to Peyton Manning, Vick, Palmer, Bledsoe, McNair and McNabb, three others have proven to be quality quarterbacks: Daunte Culpepper (11th, 1995), Chad Pennington (18th, 2000) and Ben Roethlisberger (11th, 2004). However, Pennington's career might be cut short by injury. Nobody can be sure yet about several others, including Aaron Rodgers (24th, 2005), J.P. Losman (22nd, 2004), Rex Grossman (22nd, 2003), Kyle Boller (19th, 2003)and Patrick Ramsey (32nd, 2002). But they haven't exactly gotten off to auspicious starts.
Ten of the 35 have been complete busts. At least, three others didn't play up to expectations. At least five have been disappointments to this point. That's more than half.
Other memorable busts included Dan McGwire (16th, 1991), Todd Marinovich (24th, 1991), Jim Druckenmiller (26th, 1997) and Cade McNown (12th, 1999).
The bottom line here: Beware of quarterbacks passed on by the team owning the first pick.
