Mel Kipler Mock Draft 4-3

Updated: April 3, 2006
Texans set to take Bush No. 1 overallBy Mel Kiper Jr.
Special to ESPN Insider
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Note: My first-round projections are based directly on the current position of each team in the draft and do not take into account potential trades.


It looks like the Houston Texans will take USC running back Reggie Bush with the No. 1 overall pick. The hottest spot in the draft to make a trade will be with the New Orleans Saints and the second pick. The only team the Saints could make a trade with -- and still get defensive end Mario Williams -- is the New York Jets. New York could trade up from the fourth overall pick and take USC QB Matt Leinart. Tennessee, which has the third pick, would then take Texas QB Vince Young. From what I have been told, the Titans have a very high opinion of Young.



Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Vince Young might be available when the Raiders pick seventh. But, will Oakland take a QB on the first day of the draft two years in a row?The next place you could see a trade is with the sixth overall pick, owned by the San Francisco 49ers. The sixth spot is where you will begin to hear Maryland tight end Vernon Davis' name come up. Teams like the Cardinals, Rams and Broncos could all have an interest in the tight end; then again, the 49ers could keep the pick and draft Davis.


Here's another scenario. Young is still on the board when the Raiders pick at No. 7. They already have two quarterbacks (Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter), so they could make a deal with a team that has an interest in Young.


Another interesting spot to watch is with the Jets' second pick in the first round. They could go with Ohio State center Nick Mangold with the 29th pick, but don't be surprised if they take outside linebacker Bobby Carpenter, also from Ohio State. Carpenter is in the same mold of Mike Vrabel, another Ohio State alum. Vrabel's defensive coordinator with the Patriots last season was Eric Mangini, now the coach of the Jets. If the Jets don't take Carpenter, don't be surprised if the Steelers take him. Remember, before he signed with the Patriots, Vrabel originally was drafted by the Steelers.


As for the latest first-round projections, there are two noticeable changes. The first is that I have 10 defensive backs going in the first round. Florida State's Antonio Cromartie, who missed the entire 2005 season with a knee injury, had a tremendous individual workout (40-yard dash in the 4.3 range and a 44-inch vertical leap). In fact, he showed such great hands catching the ball that teams might be curious to see what type of wide receiver he could be. He's a cornerback in the NFL, but has the athleticism and hands to play on offense.


Cromartie isn't the only versatile defensive back in the first round. Michael Huff of Texas will initially be a cornerback in the NFL, but played safety in college; Ohio State's Donte Whitner played safety at Ohio State, but could be corner at the next level or a great cover safety; and Jason Allen was both a safety and corner at Tennessee. The true cover cornerbacks in the first round are Johnathan Joseph, Tye Hill, Ashton Youboty, Kelly Jennings and Richard Marshall.


The other noticeable change is how far the running backs (Laurence Maroney, LenDale White and DeAngelo Williams) have fallen, but it has nothing to do with their productivity. Arizona (10th pick) and Minnesota (17th pick) were looking at running backs in the first round before addressing those needs through free agency (the Cardinals signed Edgerrin James and the Vikings grabbed Chester Taylor).


One player from the Big Ten who has fallen is Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali. He didn't have great individual workouts; still, you cannot question his body of work on the field. Hali could still go late in the first round, but if he doesn't, a team will be getting a steal in the second round.


My Big Board will be updated the second week of April, while the next first-round projections will come out on April 17. The final projection will be April 28, the day before the draft.



First-Round Projections
1. Houston Reggie Bush, RB* USC
2. New Orleans Mario Williams, DE* NC State
3. Tennessee Matt Leinart, QB USC
4. N.Y. Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T Virginia
5. Green Bay A.J. Hawk, LB Ohio St.
6. San Francisco Vernon Davis, TE* Maryland
7. Oakland Vince Young, QB* Texas
8. Buffalo Brodrick Bunkley, DT Florida St.
9. Detroit Michael Huff, DB Texas
10. Arizona Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt
11. St. Louis Chad Greenway, LB Iowa
12. Cleveland Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB Florida St.
13. Baltimore Haloti Ngata, DT* Oregon
14. Philadelphia Winston Justice, T* USC
15. Denver (from ATL) Chad Jackson, WR* Florida
16. Miami Donte Whitner, S* Ohio St.
17. Minnesota Ernie Sims, LB* Florida St.
18. Dallas Jason Allen, S/CB Tennessee
19. San Diego Johnathan Joseph, CB* South Carolina
20. Kansas City Tye Hill, CB Clemson
21. New England Santonio Holmes, WR* Ohio St.
22. Denver (from WSH) DeAngelo Williams, RB Memphis
23. Tampa Bay Antonio Cromartie, CB* Florida St.
24. Cincinnati Jimmy Williams, CB Virginia Tech
25. N.Y. Giants Kelly Jennings, CB Miami
26. Chicago Richard Marshall CB* Fresno St.
27. Carolina LenDale White, RB* USC
28. Jacksonville Marcedes Lewis, TE UCLA
29. N.Y. Jets (from DEN) Nick Mangold, C Ohio St.
30. Indianapolis Laurence Maroney, RB* Minnesota
31. Seattle Ashton Youboty, CB* Ohio St.
32. Pittsburgh Sinorice Moss, WR Miami



* denotes underclassman


Stock Rising
Late first round, early second round
Chris Chester, C -- Oklahoma
Orien Harris, DT -- Miami
D'Qwell Jackson, LB -- Maryland
Davin Joseph, G -- Oklahoma
Taitusi "Duece" Latui, G -- USC
Manny Lawson, DE -- NC State
Rocky McIntosh, OLB -- Miami
Leonard Pope, TE -- Georgia
Eric Winston, T -- Miami



Early to middle of second round
Joseph Addai, RB -- LSU
Brodie Croyle, QB -- Alabama
David Thomas, TE -- Texas
Zach Strief, T -- Northwestern


3rd round
Will Blackmon, CB/WR -- Boston College
Chris Gocong, DE -- Cal Poly SLO
Devin Hester, CB/WR/returner -- Miami
Tarvaris Jackson, QB -- Alabama St.
Calvin Lowry, S -- Penn St.
Danieal Manning, CB -- Abilene Christian
David Pittman, CB -- Northwestern St.
Willie Reid, WR/Returner -- Florida St.
Joe Toledo, T -- Washington
Guy Whimper, T -- East Carolina
James Wyche, DE -- Syracuse


Stock Dropped
Jason Avant, WR -- Michigan
Dominique Byrd, TE -- USC
Tamba Hali, DE -- Penn St.
Thomas Howard, LB -- UTEP
Mathias Kiwanuka, DE -- Boston College
Ko Simpson, DB -- South Carolina
Alan Zemaitis, CB -- Penn St.

Also Proday risers/fallers

Cromartie's stock up after impressive workoutBy Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
Archive

A month full of pro day workouts came to a close on Sunday with USC's mega-event appropriately serving as the grand finale. As is the case every year, on-campus workouts have helped to further shape the 2006 draft board. Below is a brief breakdown of the prospects that were most affected, followed by an updated Top 32 that reflects my new rankings.


Pro day risers
Kellen Clemens, quarterback, Oregon
After suffering a season-ending broken ankle during his senior season, Clemens needed a strong postseason in order to regain momentum as a fringe Day 1 prospect. His workout at the combine was just decent, but Clemens put on a show in Eugene, Ore., on March 16 for all talent evaluators in attendance. In my opinion, Clemens is one of the most underrated prospects in this year's class and he warrants consideration in the late second- to third-round range of the upcoming draft.

Antonio Cromartie, cornerback, Florida State
Cromartie missed all of last season with a knee injury but elected to leave school early instead of returning for his final season of eligibility in 2007. There are still questions regarding his rustiness, durability and technique, but Cromartie's physical tools are outstanding. After running two 40-yard dashes in the high 4.3-second range and notching 42 inches on the vertical jump, Cromartie could sneak into the late portion of the first round.


Winston Justice, offensive tackle, USC
Justice (6-foot-6¼, 320 pounds) has some prior off-field issues that could affect his draft status, but most in attendance would agree that he looked like a top-10 pick at USC's pro day. Justice had a strong all-around workout but the most astounding moment had to be when he notched a vertical leap of 39 inches.


Scouts Inc.'s Top 32
RANK NAME POS CLASS SCHOOL PREV
1. Reggie Bush RB JR USC 1
2. Mario Williams DE JR N.C. State 4
3. Matt Leinart QB SR USC 4
4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson OT SR Virginia 3
5. A.J. Hawk OLB SR Ohio State 6
6. Vernon Davis TE JR Maryland 5
7. Michael Huff DB SR Texas 8
8. Winston Justice OT JR USC 9
9. Vince Young QB JR Texas 7
10. Haloti Ngata DT JR Oregon 9
11. Brodrick Bunkley DT SR Florida State 12
12. Jay Cutler QB SR Vanderbilt 11
13. DeAngelo Williams RB SR Memphis 16
14. Ernie Sims OLB JR Florida State 15
15. Chad Jackson WR JR Florida 17
16. Santonio Holmes WR JR Ohio State 18
17. Tye Hill DC SR Clemson 16
18. Laurence Maroney RB JR Minnesota 20
19. Jimmy Williams DC SR Virginia Tech 21
20. Chad Greenway OLB SR Iowa 19
21. Jonathan Joseph DC JR South Carolina 26
22. Mathias Kiwanuka DE SR Boston College 22
23. Ashton Youboty DC JR Ohio State 25
24. Kamerion Wimbley DE SR Florida State 29
25. LenDale White RB JR USC 14
26. Antonio Cromartie DC JR Florida State 23
27. Manny Lawson DE SR NC State NR
28. Nick Mangold C SR Ohio State NR
29. Jason Allen DB SR Tennessee NR
30. Tamba Hali DE SR Penn State 24
31. Donte Whitner DS JR Ohio State NR
32. Sinorice Moss WR SR Miami-Fla. 27
Donte Whitner, safety, Ohio State
In what is shaping up as a deep crop of safeties in the 2006 draft class, Whitner was able to separate himself from most by running two 40-yard dash attempts of 4.37 and 4.39 seconds. If Whitner comes off the board in Round 1, it will be his pro day workout that puts him over the edge.


DeAngelo Williams, running back, Memphis
Williams was never going to catch up with Reggie Bush (USC) for the honors of first selection in this year's strong crop of running backs. However, Williams' impressive pro day showing, which included two 40-yard dash attempts in the 4.4-second range, helped propel him to the No. 2 running back spot (ahead of Minnesota's Laurence Maroney and USC's LenDale White) on most NFL teams' draft boards. White's catastrophic postseason hasn't hurt matters for Williams, either.



Pro day fallers

A.J. Nicholson, outside linebacker, Florida State
Not much has gone right for Nicholson since the end of the regular season. On top of an off-field incident that led to his eventual suspension for the 2006 Orange Bowl, Nicholson could muster no better than a 4.75 on a fast track during FSU's pro day. Once considered a possible late first-round pick, Nicholson will be lucky to hear his name called late on the draft's first day.


Michael Robinson, Penn State
Robinson's best fit in the NFL will be as a wide receiver or free safety. He also shows some potential as a return specialist. Unfortunately, Robinson's decision not to work out at the combine and only to work out as a quarterback at Penn State's pro day has left many NFL scouts scratching their heads. Failing to break the 4.5-second plateau in his two 40-yard dash attempts didn't help Robinson's cause, either.


DeMeco Ryans, outside linebacker, Alabama
Ryans was able to improve his 40-yard dash time at Alabama's on-campus workout last month, but he still failed to break the 4.65-second level. Ryans is an instinctive and tough linebacker who should eventually emerge as a solid starter in the NFL, but his lack of ideal "measurables" negatively affected his draft value during the postseason process.


Travis Williams, outside linebacker, Auburn
Williams bulked up to 222 pounds for his March 23 workout on Auburn's campus, which is an improvement from his playing weight of 213 pounds. However, his inability to maintain the quickness and speed that he shows on film was obvious during his workout, where he ran in his two 40-yard dash attempts in the 4.7-second range. As a result, Williams will likely be nothing more than a mid-to-late-round draft selection as a possible sub-package defender that will have to earn his salary on special teams.


LenDale White, running back, USC
White's stock is free-falling after he showed up noticeably out of shape at 244 pounds for USC's pro day, where he cited an injured hamstring as his reason for opting out of the running, agility and position-drill portions of the workout. With only a few weeks remaining before draft weekend, White has very little time left to recover.



Pro day sleepers

Darrell Adams, defensive lineman, Villanova
After a sub-par showing at this year's combine, Adams was able to redeem himself with an impressive all-around workout at Villanova's pro day on March 17. A late-round tweener DE/DT, Adams (6-4 1/8, 275) ran both of his 40-yard dash attempts in the 4.8-second range, while also notching solid results in the vertical jump (30 inches), short shuttle (4.39), three-cone drill (7.58) and bench press (22 reps).

William Buchanon, wide receiver/defensive back, USC
Buchanon (6-3, 191) is a naturally gifted athlete with an impressive combination of size and speed. His instincts are certainly in question after he failed to settle into a starting role at wide receiver or defensive back during his career at USC. However, he turned some heads at his recent pro day workout, where he blazed a 40-yard dash attempt in 4.38 seconds and also showed explosiveness with his results on the broad jump (10-1) and vertical jump (40). In doing so, Buchanon likely earned a spot in the final two rounds of the upcoming draft.

Brett Elliott, QB, Linfield
Elliott was not invited to the combine but he was able to make a strong case for late-round draft consideration with an impressive showing at Portland State's pro day on March 17. Elliott, who was awarded the Gagliardi Trophy as the outstanding football player in NCAA Division III last season, lacks ideal speed and athletic ability but he's a pocket passer that displayed adequate arm strength and impressive accuracy during his passing session.


Travis Lulay, QB, Montana State
Lulay is an intriguing late-round prospect who was able to build on a solid combine showing with an even more impressive pro day workout at Montana State on March 22. Lulay ran his two 40 attempts in the sub-4.7-second range, which was an improvement from his combine times. He also notched impressive results in the short shuttle (4.06), three-cone drill (6.79) and vertical jump (37½). Lulay was a bit erratic at times but he displays a strong arm and enough athletic ability to warrant late-round consideration as a developmental project.


Paul McQuistan, OT, Weber State
McQuistan is one of the fast-rising offensive line prospects in the 2006 draft class. He was a dominant player at the small school level who has been able to impress scouts during the postseason process. He had solid outings at the East-West Shrine Game, as well as at the combine. However, McQuistan saved his best for last, as he turned heads with his performance in position drills at Weber State's pro day. Notching 28 reps on the 225-pound bench press also helped McQuistan's cause as a fringe Day 1 prospect.


Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.

If we drafted Travis Williams, can we call him The Roadrunner also? I bet he's not as fas as the first Roadrunner.

We had the 60s Travis Williams, and I think we had another Travis Williams in the last few years. He could be the third Travis Williams on the Packers.

Anyone know why Mathias Kiwanuka, DE -- Boston College has fallen? Seems not too long ago his name was getting mentioned in the same sentence as Mario & Ngati :?:

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Originally Posted by hurleyfan

Anyone know why Mathias Kiwanuka, DE -- Boston College has fallen? Seems not too long ago his name was getting mentioned in the same sentence as Mario & Ngati :?:

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I think it was the Senior Bowl week that did him in. Apparently, Ferguson just dominated him.

Wow, one bad game! Plus there are lots of good DE's that got dominated by Fergie :razz:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by hurleyfan

Wow, one bad game! Plus there are lots of good DE's that got dominated by Fergie :razz:

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In college maybe, but guys that are good enough at the pro level should give him a battle. Ferguson might be good, but I doubt he'll be better than the Ogdens and Paces--or even the Cliftons.