Fun preview read here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eview-edition/
with use of both the historical team point differentials and something he has produced call QB win curves.
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Fun preview read here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eview-edition/
with use of both the historical team point differentials and something he has produced call QB win curves.
Thought about this again reading the preview article in OP. I think the bolded claim is wrong. Slopes at ANY points on the curve measure change in the same way and are not affected by the cumulative totals. So comparing Meredith/Staubach/Landry effect on the Cowboys to the Walsh/Montana/Young 49ers is indeed possible.
You could argue that different eras, with different rues affecting scoring make totals fluctuate, but that effect is strongly muted when considering point differentials rather than total points scored or allowed. The range may have increased over time as offense was favored, but the effect would not be as dramatic with the net figure.
Link anyone?
Technically, the slopes on the left should be MORE impactful than on the right, as teams played fewer games 40-50 years ago than they do today so they had less opportunity to gain or lose point differential. +50 points over 10 or 12 games is far more impressive than +50 points over 16 games.
However, there is also the notion that football prior to 1970 was not nearly as competitive as it is today. There were a handful of teams that dominated an era...and then you had a bunch of mediocre teams that they routinely beat like a drum. That would make a slope at the right side more impressive.
So, as usual, statistics can be successfully argued either way. Let's just be happy with the fact that Green Bay's line is currently on top.
Just waiting to leave for bird day festivities, so here are all the possible links you might be referring to:
Game Previews with QB curves mentioned above: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eview-edition/
QB Curves Original Article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...dterm-edition/
NFL History Point Differential: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ry-of-the-nfl/
Streaming Feeds for Games (maybe you are at work): https://twitter.com/gregpunzo
PackerRats thread about Point Differential: http://packerrats.com/showthread.php...l=1#post807580
Thanks, PB. Looking for game link.
I may choke on my turkey...but I'm hoping the Bears actually play a complete game and continue the skid for the Lions.
I just saw Kendricks from the Eagles tackle DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys by grabbing onto Murray's straight arm and hauling him down. Yes, it can be done. It was a thing of beauty. Kendricks is obviously following my posts here and learning.:whaa:
It looks to me like Romo should not be out there. How much pain is he in? Twice now I've seen him go down in the pocket without getting hit, and it looked like he did it because he didn't want to take the hit. He just did it with Dallas inside the 10.
Romo is very inconsistent on his passes as well. Last interception was a bad throw. Several throws before were weak.
Ref should be able to assess a 'taunting' penalty to the home team for the behavior of the stadium PA system. McCoy just lost a fumble and they played a wailing car alarm sound effect. How is that not taunting?
edit: reversed the call, not that it matters
Backing up for a second: are the injuries on the O line the problem with the Bears O? Because it looked futile for the last 3 quarters and the players all looked like they had seen this movie before. Protection wasn't great but watching on and off again I kept wondering if they have lost confidence in Cutler or the play call?
Teams I worry about: Seattle, maybe San Fran, maybe Arizona, maybe Eagles
Team I no longer worry about: Dallas
Today's games outcomes are not going how I wanted them to.
Borland great in run support tonight Pass coverage depends; in man he is slower than Hawk. In zone, he stays close enough to eliminate the speed issue.
Anyone watching this? That was a heck of a scramble, pitch then YAC! Russel Wilson showing great ability to keep his eyes downfield.
I am rooting for a tie and both coaches to fall in a pit.
And let's commence the 49er internal sniping season.
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet 1m1 minute ago
Strong words RT @JedYork: Thank you #49ersfaithful for coming out strong tonight. This performance wasn't acceptable. I apologize for that
That's @JedYork, the owner of the team.
I don't know if both defenses were just that good tonight, or if both offenses are just that inept. Though Wilson at least knows to not chuck it wildly like Kaepernick.
Kaepernick is not near as good at manipulating the secondary as Wilson. And his receivers are slow. Seattle defense largely continued their "Hold for Gold" strategy from the last two seasons. A five yard penalty here or there is worth it, really. The league might consider upping the yardage to 10 on defensive holding. Really, anytime you're remotely beaten, just hold and it's a simple short gain.
That didn't happen after the Bears came out of the gate fast.
The Bears cannot play all out for two quarters little more 60 minutes. Watching Jay "sad dog face" Cutler react to whatever is happening on the side lines is like nothing else I've observed in Pro sports. That man doesn't seem to have one start of competitive fire in him. Jay Cutler is not the answer for the Chicago Bears at the QB position. The Bears have to make a change there ASAP or forget any real success.
The problem with the Bears doesn't lie with their Head Coach Marc Trestman. It's to a great extent on Jay Cutler and his sad shrugging attitude.
Here's some reaction post the Chicago Bears thumping in Detroit by the Lions.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...27-column.html
I looked at the Bears @ Lions matchup as one to determine which team would step up in this very important Week 13 for many NFL teams. The LIONS proved to me that their serious and improving now that Megatron is finally healthy. The Detroit LIONS have to be taken very seriously.
This Sundays game for the Green Bay Packers Vs the New England Patriots is "a statement game" for the home team. The Packers must somehow win this game and continue some momentum towards the 'only thing that counts'.
The Super Bowl game and a win there.
GO PACKERS !
I believe that the Arizona Cardinals will fade. Their rushing game is Ranked near the bottom of the NFL and their Offense overall won't help out a top ranked 'D'. The loss of Carson Palmer will eventually show up in the loss column.
The Detroit LIONS had the same concern (Reggie Bush has been absent for too long) and more on their offense. Yesterdays thrashing of the Chicago Bears offered good News ! Lion RB Joique Bell had a nice day Vs the BEARS on Thanksgiving Day going 91 Yards on 23 carries and 2 TD's. Seeing Megatron get his Mojo back (11 receptions for 146 yards and 2 TD's) and add that to the outstanding play from Golden Tate and a much improved Matthew Stafford performance ( 34/45 for 390 yards and 2 TD's) has to be inspirational for the Lions organization and fans.
The Philadelphia Eagles are formidable as long as RB LeSean McCoy is firing on all cylinders. Their 'D' is decent. Their hurry up offense wears opposing 'D's' out. Green Bay shouldn't hope to meet that team again this year.
The Dallas Cowboys put themselves in a hole. They have to win in Philly (Week 15) and defeat the Colts @ home (Week 16). A tough chore.
THE REAL CONCERN:
The Seattle Seahawks ! That team is back !!
We must defeat the New England patriots on Sunday at Lambeau Field and win the NFCN to secure 'Home field Advantage' in the playoffs. We must earn the NO. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Seattle Seahawks are gaining momentum and that 'D' is just scary. The way to the Super Bowl in the NFC is to defeat the Hawks. For the Packers to have the best chance to do that we need that NO. 1 Seed.
Family members pile on:
Baalke's daughter rips Roman
Its not quite Greg Jennings sister, but coming from higher up the food chain.
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/blog...t-11282014.jpg
Agreed.
It seems the league has just beaten the competitive fire out of the boy.
I saw him play for Vandy and the first years at Denver. He used to light up like a Christmas tree on game day. Now, he's all hit out, things go bad and he mopes around in a shell.
He's Jeff George II.
A tin man with a golden arm.
http://www.cbssports.com/images/coll...-roman-psu.jpg
Gore ! You've been Romanized.
The Hawks got called a few times. But remember that they ARE otherwise a good defense. The way it worked out in the SF game was: Seattle shut down SF on better than 50% of their plays. Every time the 49ers actually had a chance for a big play, they got 5 yards instead. Hard to function under those parameters.
I am not saying the Seahawks aren't good, because they obviously are. Mathematically, cheating gives them the best chance to succeed, and they would be stupid to do anything differently. Considering that, the rules need to be changed to make HOLDFORGOLD less viable. Bumping the holding penalty, or adding 5 yards from the spot on PI, would be the obvious suggestions.
Watching Carroll complain about the penalties when it's part of his entire defensive strategy was nauseating. And Rickle Sherman getting in the ref's face after being called on an obvious penalty should have drawn an unsportsmanlike conduct flag. It should be considered for a fine.
I know the play you are talking about, and I remember on the replay it didn't look that bad, although the announcers piled on. I paid attention to Sherman as much as I could last night, and honestly, I thought he played a spectacular, and mostly very clean game. The couple of times he got handsy I thought more "how the hell else are you supposed to play the position".
re: 5 yard holding penalty
I wonder how the ref decides when it's a hold, and when it's PI and 'spot of the foul'.