nelson didn't gamble, either time
he took the sure thing both times when he would have made a lot more money if he would have gambled on himself
jordy lost because he didn't go all in
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Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.
Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.
Hard to say a guy making 9M a year lost. He is doing just fine. He played it safe, though. Randall is gonna get overpaid by somebody. Hopefully not the Packers. I'd love him back at 7M. He's a 5'10" slot guy. My honest opinion: Reggie Bush could sign w/ the Pack for a fraction of the price and provide a lot of what Randall Cobb did.
Nelson did gamble though. He eschewed a bigger payday a year later to take a smaller deal and another shot at FA before he was 30.
It paid off with his rise to the top of his profession and good health. Now, you might think his choice was the sounder of the two (versus Cobb or Jennings waiting until the last year of their deal) but it was still a risk.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-jordy-nelson/
$8.5 mpy considered as an extension. PFT had his down for $3.5 mil due to him in 2014.
No, because the odds aren't tilted that unfavorably against the decision to wait.
Its more like spending your buck on a Snickers rather than waiting 6 months and getting 2 for $1.
A team will always do a deal for a player below market value if he still has value to them. Paying up front for future years is another matter entirely.
that numbers wrong, i think. it gives his cap number for 2014 which included .75 million in pro rated signing bonus from the previous deal, which i took out to get at my 2.75 number for 2014
either way, he's still well under 9 million
i'm bored, so if you go actual cash money, he made
2014- 14.25 million
2015- 2.3 million
2016- 6.5 million
2017- 9.25 million
2018- 10.25 million
or 8.51 million "cash", per year
I saw an interview with Nelson shortly after he signed the last one. He almost seemed embarrassed when they started talking about money. He was asked if this was a "fair" deal for him, in view of what other WRs had gotten. He went into a long discussion about how they are all paid way too much for what they do, that he had already made an awful lot of money just to play football, so, yes, to do what he does, this was fair. If it was low in eys of others, at least the Packers would have ability to sign team mates, etc.
I think Jordy will always seem like a bargain, because it didn't sound like he would ever have demands.
Well, some of these geniuses can't seem to understand that their income isn't just their "salary", signing bonuses count, too. They hold out based on the unfairness of their salary, ignoring the fact they may have already received much, much more a few years earlier.