Originally Posted by
Patler
The problem I see with these massive trades for a QB in the draft are two fold:
- there is a significant risk the guy fails completely, or is OK but not special. He doesn't carry your team like a Rodgers or Brady can.
- even if he is special, it will be 3 or 4 years generally before he really hits his stride. Any legitimate stars on the team when he was drafted will be starting to reach the second halves of their careers and there are no other 1st, 2nd or 3rd round picks in the most recent years to become the dominant players on their teams. For example, If GB had made a similar trade to get Rodgers, they would not have had the picks used for Collins and Hawk. Would they have won a SB in 2010 without Collins or Hawk? Look what happened when they lost Collins and Hawk declined prematurely. We saw the defense deteriorate significantly. They struggled for three years to replace Collins, and strung along with Hawk. The defense suffered. That shows what not having those picks would have caused even in 2010.
How much more successful might have the Packers been if just Collins career hadn't ended when it did? Might he have made a difference in some of the playoff losses?
Even if you get an elite QB, trading so many other opportunities for decent players almost ensures that the QB's supporting cast will be weak when he hits his prime.