I think the discussion of horses et al. are fitting because there's not much you can say about the first overall pick. Most of the time there's a pretty good consensus about who the first overall pick should be, so the team takes it and hopes the masses are correct. I think the best picks are the ones that required some risk and creativity - like the Chargers taking Eli then trading him for . That worked out well for them, helped them put a very good team on the field for a few years.
I'd like to note that the West coast of Lake Ontario is 1) also no warmer than it's East coast, and 2) effectively means Hamilton, and you don't want to go there.