Went to Walmart this morning at 6am for the 'old folks' shopping hour so I could as Walmart put it, avoid the crowds. Well, they were packed, lined up outdoors like sardines. Lotsa old people in Rhinelander I guess...
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Went to Walmart this morning at 6am for the 'old folks' shopping hour so I could as Walmart put it, avoid the crowds. Well, they were packed, lined up outdoors like sardines. Lotsa old people in Rhinelander I guess...
That's a good point too, so it should be possible to map back on the original model and say whether it's following predicted rates so as to allow for model adjustment. I'd like to see someone do this for Italy SK and maybe even Germany as the number of deaths/day is no longer rising, suggesting top of the bell curve. (still, for Italy you have to separate out co-morbidity deaths, because Italy scores a death as corona if the postmortem shows an infection, even if the cause of death might be something else).
Sigmoid curves not belll, I think.
This is an Oxford study which is the model I was proposing several days ago, based on reports of very high transmission. If the virus is highly transmissible, it's very likely a lot more people are already infected.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-...f-41bea055720b
Quote:
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https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-...f-41bea055720b
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.
The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.
But isn't the fact they had other conditions just putting them in a higher risk factor for coronavirus? I think it is a stretch they died of one of their other conditions, but more along the lines of coronavirus killed them because they had the other conditions. At least, that is what I am seeing reported by the medical dudes in other countries. But this is not a battle I want to fight, you may be right.
I would disagree, but I would at least respect he had certain conviction....I can disagree with you vehemently and still respect your opinion is different than mine....I readily admit that just letting this thing run it's course like Tex believes is a viable opinion, I just think it is wrong. At least until you can show me that we have peaked and have some idea what kind of numbers we are really dealing with.....I don't think we really have a clue as of yet...
Do the models account for 3-5 day test backlogs. Once we are in 24hr turns - the models will be ‘cleaner’. Some of this ‘skyrocketing’ is just backlog reduction. Look for the weekly trends as much as daily...
From the same country that gave you corona, now comes a new bird flu. Enjoy!
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...us-crisis.aspx
Every photo from China during this shows every one wearing a mask.
Hmm.
Well that was before knowing the extent. It’s not generally gonna help you to wear a mask. But when there’s a widespread illness that appears to be infectious for a sig period before symptoms or even without symptoms, stopping those people from splattering on you makes sense.