Good week Brandon. I see what you're doing. I'm more sketched by rigged games so I pick my spots a little more. But props man. You had a great week and it's noted.
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Good week Brandon. I see what you're doing. I'm more sketched by rigged games so I pick my spots a little more. But props man. You had a great week and it's noted.
Those were the games I liked and I was sharing them. . I fucked up on the Giants game and let some “outside noise” affect my decision on it. Happens sometimes. But no I did not parlay the whole thing.
I had Giants Bears and Chiefs on one Ticket and Colts and Packers on another. Used the Packers to get basically a little better then even money with Colts ML. All ML
When I saw the Giants weren’t getting it done I pivoted and took The Chiefs on a 2nd half money line at I believe -220 with the Colts ML to mitigate loses and turn it into a winner. I also had the Colts on couple other tickets as the final leg of a parlay. It’s was the “pressure point” game. I had to win that game!!!
Then I picked everything else up I could on the floor with the Bills!!!
Tomorrow I’ll be taking a small to medium swing with Browns ML.
I started this thread as discussion of betting, not for you to come in and boast about your awesomeness. You also gave us pittsburg at -300 and lost. You gave us a 2-3 college day while losing on 2 ML plays paying aggressive vig. Its a good thing you arent charging thousands for this "service" you are providing us. I wonder what you are like in real life. You seem to have an aggrandized view of yourself. You must work or live in a way where you don't feel you are given credit for your awesomeness, so you come here, tell us about how much money you make on stocks and betting, and predict doom for the packers due to no offensive weapons. (we have the top scoring offense in the NFL by the way). The only predictions you have actually made out loud ahead of time have been wrong. The bets you have actually posted BEFORE games are losing money.
Give the self promotion a break tupac, and just analyze some games and participate in the discussion. If you can't do that, get out of the thread, cuz I didn't make the thread for you to tell us how great you are after the fact. Now go back to your moms basement (cuz you ain't in vegas right now) and tell me again how our lack of WR talent will cost this team a winning season. Tell me how Philadelphia, Dallas and TB are serious contenders. Lets revisit that prediction should we?
I don’t even know how to respond to this. It’s obviously not helping anybody from posting my picks so it just isn’t worth my time. Give people mounds of winners and they pull up some game or two you lost. Lol. It’s so typical. I do have other people I communicate with this stuff and other things. I work tirelessly at this and with other people that I have relationships with that do count on me so I just don’t have the time to walk everyone through an NFL betting Sunday or College Football Saturday for the sake of charity. Not sure that makes me a terrible person. This is how I roll and I really don’t give a fuck what people think of me. I’m very comfortable with who I am and blocking out all the noise.
So I’ll take my Browns ML and my college basketball play(Which I’m not giving) and I’m done posting any further picks because you had to run your big Fucken mouth!! How about that!!
Look, its really simple. We want to discuss. I like Cleveland tonight and the under. I think a home team in division laying points is always juicy. I think Cleveland is also about equal in talent to Baltimore. I like the under in a game played at night in the cold. that's a simple quick analysis. I'm not selling a lock of the week. I'm not claiming to be a guru. I started this thread to discuss what we like and why. If you don't want to "waste your time" thats fine. Its entertainment. I didn't start the thread to brag/boast/claim all i do is win win win. Post winners. awesome, if you build a track record I would actually bet your plays. Post enough winners I'll buy you multiple beers in some Bar in GB sometime. But in honesty you haven't even posted a winning record based on things you posted ahead of game time, but then you crow about crushing the books. Its boring.
In so much as you are a like minded football junkie I want to discuss betting and lines with you. My goal isn't to mock you if you are wrong. But when you post some of the aggrandizing crap that is annoying I'm going to mock you.
So, I ask you...humbly. What do you like tonight and why? Are you betting it or just theorizing? Its for fun. If you are really such a serious sports betting person that this is below you, no problem. If you really are a guy who wins a mountain of cash on sports betting, cool. Post some pics. Make me buy you a bunch of beers sometime.
Now, I called a friend cuz i'm a junkie. I got action for all of $120 to win 100 on a teaser. Cleveland +9 and under 51.5
That safety at the end of the Browns-Ravens game was fucking BRUTAL.
All I know is I need about 20 points from Kareem Hunt to win in my fantasy league and got about 30. :glug:
Hell yeah
This is where I’m sitting tonight on a “3 Teamer”. The two college basketball games doing all the heavy lifting for me to get value on the Raiders tonight. This, if you haven’t noticed yet is my main strategy in getting value.
Bet Details:
302 Raiders (-180) (NFL)
WON: 693 Duke (-185) (NCAA Men) Score: 75-65
WON: 663 Pittsburgh PK Buy 1½ (-140) (NCAA Men) Score: 70-55
Just need a Raiders win tonight which I feel pretty good about.
You really don't learn. And then the only game you actually post about BEFORE the game is played....a -180 favorite loses. Oh well, here goes.
I like 2 games this week. Miami and Washington. Miami is playing pretty solid ball, both sides. N.E. is as out of sorts as a Belicheck team gets. The line is getting a sort of "historical" bump. The truth is that right now, Miami is a better team playing at home. They should be laying 6, not 2. Washington is peaking at the right time. That young defense can get after the QB and contrary to popular belief, Russel isn't at his best when running for his life. For every great play he makes, he makes a forgettable one. Alex Smith is ball controlling and game managing the way Riverboat Ron likes. However, I won't bet this game until right before the game as we may end up with Dwayne Haskins starting at QB for the football team in which case all bets are off.
A smaller play I like is the Chefs. They have beaten several good team whereas the Saints haven't really beaten anyone. The defense has been stout, but that is negated by the fact no one has stopped Maholmes. So then it becomes can the saints score enough to cover +3? I doubt it.
So 3 plays, one at half the bet:
Washington +6 (if Smith plays)
Miami -2
Half unit K.C. -3
I expect to win money with that outlay sunday.
Well I’ve been on the wrong side of two very close NFL games this week with Cleveland and the Raiders no doubt. These things happen. There will be some valleys in this and losses. Money management allows these valleys to be sustainable.
Just so I’m “Posting Before Games Played” which in the case I was posting my pick because I’m pretty sure everyone here only plays football I posted the whole Raiders parlay with the college basketball games already played but oh well. I’m pretty sure none of these games have kicked off yet. I will also be making a big play on USC ML on a straight play as that is my game of the week for heavy duty players!!
Tonight I like
Three team Parlay
USC ML -155
Marshal ML -190
Packers ML (1st Half) -258
This is a nice “Come Back Ticket”
San Jose State @ +7 is tremendous value. I will be pumping it in ML into a parlay ticket to juice. I think they win outright against Boise State.
I also believe the Packers cover this week as well -8 but will be buying it down -7 for good measure. Bills ML is Gimmee.
I will also be playing Chiefs, Browns, Dolphins and Colts all on the ML.
Notre Dame +10.5 and Florida +17 will also be games I will be involved in.
Arizona State, UCLA and Air Force are all college ML plays I like.
I don’t have time to list all my Collge basketball plays. Sorry!!!!
That's a lotta action brandon. It's true I don't bet much hoops til the tourny. I paly a lot of in game nba. I like betting first half dogs, 2nd half faves in nba.
Alex Smith out. Haskins starts.
Why don’t you fuckers pick all this weekends NFL winners heads up. See who come out better. You can both PM them to me and I will post together so there is no copying picks.
I didn't do this thread for bragging rights. As I said, I might splurge for the whopping $100 cbs charges to run a pick 5 next year. That can be for bragging rights. I was hoping for discussion of games and the WHY behind the bets. Like Miami vs. N.E. I think Miami is playing good ball. They have been much better this season. Even though Belicheat has a great record vs. rookie QBs he is just short on talent this year. 4 starters sat out the season. Patriots have been all over the map this season. They play great at times and then lay down. They beat Miami in week 1, and that plays into this. Flores is going to have Miami playing its best game. End of the day, Miami has a better roster right now. Better home team laying 2 in a division game. I just see Flores pulling out all the stops to beat the man and get this young team into the playoffs.
Now, I might be wrong. I admit I don't win money betting sports. I like to play games on odd nights just to have action. Maybe if I took it really serious and bet a lot more on games I like I could be a net winner, but its not worth the risk to me. What I really wanted was junkies like me to break down the Sunday night, Monday and Thursday games so maybe I would see something I like and get better action. Hell, Maybe I'll play San Jose +7 today like Brandon said just to have a little juice on the game.
We can brag next season if someone reminds me and I can get 10 rats involved. Cbs is a good system. Nobody sees each others picks until that game kicks off. Its good clean fun.
What I got tomorrow is a 4 teamer with
Dolphins ML - I like how Tua is playing and Devante Parker is coming back and playing tomorrow. I also made a mid straight bet on them ML.
Browns ML- Browns can run the ball on anyone and score and I’m not getting tricked on the Giants again. G-Men will play hard but won’t be enough.
Colts ML- Houston doesn’t have much left. This should be easy.
Chiefs ML- This one is easy for me too. Mahommes vs whoever the Saints play at QB is “W”
value play on a “Two Teamer” with
WFT ML and Browns ML. Seattle has to go all the way across the country. They historically have problems with dominant defensive fronts.
I’m feeling this one. I think it’s going to be close and the WFT will have a chance to win at end of the game. The Seahawks defense can’t be trusted. I should of probably took the points but I went for it and the $.
If my “4 teamer” somehow falls apart I will maneuver accordingly. I usually shrink it down or pivot with 2nd half bets of games I have a good feel on to re-start.
But that’s really what I do. I find a game that they make a mistake handicapping on that I can get for +200 or better and I use it to juice as many 2-3(depending how much I’m wagering) teamer tickets as I can. You can usually find 1 or 2 of them every week between college basketball and football and even NFL sometimes. They just have to many games to handicap. I look for mistakes. That’s really what I do.
I don’t think there is a mistake in the WFT vs Seahawks game as far as the line. It is a situation where I’m looking at a team that historically doesn’t travel well in long distance situations and doesn’t do well against dominant fronts. I believe the Seahawks have some roster issues that the Redskins can expose so this game for me is more of a matchup issue and I am also going a little off script. Hopefully it doesn’t get me in trouble. It is more of a flyer if anything. The “Under” I believe would also be a solid play in this game but I don’t usually play “totals”.
Ahhhh, What the hell!!!
https://youtu.be/2hjbRaP6Fk4
“Heavy Sunday”
Bet Details:
475 Rams (-103) (NFL)
480 Packers (-175) (NFL
https://youtu.be/rMWOTFwTPGI
No time for anything in depth, but my quick reaction to the lines on sunday are Las Vegas ML as home dogs. Miami is tough, but bound to have a road let down after beating arch rival patriots. I also like the now under rated WFT and under in that game as well. I'll probably get a bit more in depth later.
Oh...also agree with Rams on the ML. Plus a nickel in vegas. Better team in a big game. Homefield matters, but not as much with empty stands and close geography.
ML Colts is a gift at -1 @ -115. I know people might expect a bounce back from Pittsburgh but they just don’t have it. They won’t be able to run the ball against the Colts. R-Burger is showing age and the offense will be one dimensional again in windy weather. The Pitt defense has just suffered too many injuries and isn’t near elite status right now. Indy will be able to move the ball and get enough points to win!!
Give me the value here and Colts at -1 @ -115 all day long!!!
https://youtu.be/AzbRxXdTcEo
So we “Bleed A little Blue” then “Ram” It” and then “Pack” up all the $”
I generally don't get enough time to watch college ball so I never have a good feel for betting. Some years I manage to watch about half the big 10 games and then I'll bet that conference only, but this year I have watched about 4 total college games.
I did see the final score though and I hope you were hesitant enough to not bet.
I agree with you on that game, but I hate betting against the wounded animal in a HUGE home game. All my logic says you are correct and Indy should win and cover, but I can't quite pull the trigger on it. As for the Packers, I rarely bet the games. When I do I'm usually backing a division rival getting way too many points against us. Personally I am terrified of this matchup for our Defense and not confident at all. Weird...you being all in on them and me not having confidence here.
I'll be happy enough with a win, don't need any financial interest in the game.
So a bit more in depth. Miami won the huge game against the Pats. Very emotional win for a young team. Now they have to go on the road, short week, and play a Raider team that got a lot of early love, but isn't getting much respect lately. Its a perfect time for a young team to let down and a team that has played solid, but suffered some tough losses to show up. I think it will be a tight game, but I think LV will bring just enough to the table early to win it. Miami is better, but they can't let down and then win late on talent like a really good team can and that is what I expect to happen here. LV builds a lead and holds on late.
Washington is similar to Miami. Peaking at the right time. Rivera is a damn good coach. Washington D is really good. Maybe the best 1/2 edge combo in the game (when sweat and burns were both there at 12 I wanted packers to trade back a bit. I was almost as pissed at the Gary pick as the Love pick). WFT lost a tough game to seattle. They aren't quite there yet, but Carolina would have lost by 20 to us if we had stuck with the run. I think WFT bounces back with an inspired home game as Rivera pushes them to the playoffs. Also, a play on under 44 doesn't look too bad in this game. I see 2 respectable defenses and 2 not so good offenses in a cold game.
Today was a very nice start to my “ Christmas Weekend Parlay”
Bet Details:
284 Coastal Carolina (-290) (NCAA FB)
WON: 452 Saints (-325) (NFL) Score: 52-33
WON: 580 Bucks (-450) (NBA) Score: 138-99
WON: 751 Wisconsin -1½ (-110) (NCAA Men) Score: 85-76
475 Rams (-103) (NFL)
480 Packers (-175) (NFL)
I have since hedged Coastal Carolina with Liberty for good measure. Packers and Rams are Locks.
I guess I gotta do it!
https://youtu.be/AEfxe2_O-CI
Tomorrow I have Cardinals winning. Bucc’s winning. Dolphins winning. Enter point spreads at your own risk.
Plus an easy college basketball play that I’m holding close to my chest!!!
We are at severe odds in the NFL. Bucs are laying 12 I think. Absolutely zero value on the ML and laying that wood on the road is suicidal. I've said my piece on Miami. And as for AZ, I actually thing the team you told me the packers couldn't compete with are getting back the most deadly duel threat in the game (Kittles). I could see a str8 upset, but I like +6 more. And again, the value on AZ ML is -260 which is more than I care to lay in a division game. AZ is at home, but SF has been in AZ since they were all but told by the governor you can't actually play or practice in SF.
These are all games I’m using to push value in different “Parlays” in my “System” along with Liberty @ +8. And what the hell it’s Christmas so my college basketball game Illinois -240 as well. “Cumulative Value”
https://youtu.be/uVMYFfBo3g8
I will reveal I’m on both sides on Coastal Carolina game in two moving winning rolling tickets. I have it bottle necked at Coastal ML and Liberty +8. Had to hedge. I like the position. Could come out winning on both sides!!!
Bucc’s at -430. Nothing amazing but nice throw in on a parlay to offset negative value elsewhere like MLing Packers. My whole weekend this time around is designed around the Packers winning. That’s the “Pressure Point Game”
I Feel Very Very good about it. It’s Boom or Bust!!!
Arizona has been inconsistent and I would not be completely shocked with a Niner win but Zona is 9-2 against San Fran since 2015!! Cards are still playing for something. Niners defense has been horrible.
Cards ML is the “Safety Zone” for me!! Give me the Bird Gang!!!
https://youtu.be/-dYP5PhCfVY
Man a Miami win would be sweet tonight.