This article from JSO is less than enthusiastic:
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packe...270266911.html
Too inconsistent?
Too limited?
Too often injured?
Will others make him expendable?
Printable View
This article from JSO is less than enthusiastic:
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packe...270266911.html
Too inconsistent?
Too limited?
Too often injured?
Will others make him expendable?
I think Cobb will get a 2-3 year extension while the Packers determine whether Cobb, Adams or someone else is capable of being their #2 WR.
It would be a shame if he did. AR has and will make his WR look like #1s. All Packer WRs should have to "tip" AR 20% of their salary. I don't think that even Jordy would be opposed to that.
Cobb adds an element of quickness and elusiveness to the Packer offense that nobody else on the current roster can provide. TT has done a nice job of finding receivers whose strengths complement each other. Letting Cobb go would deprive the offense of one of its most explosive components. I have no idea what Cobb would or wouldn't be willing to consider for a second contract, but assuming his expectations aren't unreasonable I expect TT makes sure he stays in GB.
It will be interesting to see what J Jones does in Oakland this year. If he has crappy numbers there and Jennings doesn't light it up in Minny again, GM's might have second thoughts about just how good GB's receivers are absent Rodgers.
in this day and age where one neck injury or a concussion can cut your career short at anytime, i just don't see why any player would give a team a massive "hometown discount", or sign a short "prove it" deal, when he doesn't have much to prove
he can, and should receive jordy money. if we won't give that to him, someone will
I don't know that he'll get Jordy money, but I wouldn't be surprised with something close. He's missed time all three of his seasons, that is going to hurt him.
I don't put much stock in a hometown discount, but for the same injury reasons as you stated, I think the 'get it early' discount could be significant if they continue to negotiate during the season.
I agree that the hometown discount as an argument to accept less is ludicrous. But Cobb isn't getting Nelson money yet. I think he will get a good deal more than Nelson did on his second contract.
Code:Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush
Year Age G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2008 23 16 2 33 366 11.1 2 29 2.1 22.9 366 2 0 3
2009 24 13 0 22 320 14.5 2 51 1.7 24.6 320 2 3 3
2010 25 16 4 45 582 12.9 2 80 2.8 36.4 582 2 3 5
2011 26 16 9 68 1263 18.6 15 93 4.3 78.9 1263 15 0 15
2012 27 12 10 49 745 15.2 7 73 4.1 62.1 745 7 0 7
2013 28 16 16 85 1314 15.5 8 76 5.3 82.1 1314 8 0 11
Career 89 41 302 4590 15.2 36 93 3.4 51.6 4590 36 6 44
Code:Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush
Year Age G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011 21 15 0 25 375 15.0 1 61 1.7 25.0 2 5 0 4 2.5 0.3 0.1 380 1 3 7
2012 22 15 8 80 954 11.9 8 39 5.3 63.6 10 132 0 28 13.2 8.8 0.7 1086 8 4 11
2013 23 6 4 31 433 14.0 4 48 5.2 72.2 4 78 0 67 19.5 13.0 0.7 511 4 0 4
Career 36 12 136 1762 13.0 13 61 3.8 48.9 16 215 0 67 13.4 6.0 0.4 1977 13 7 22
Seems to me the money on a deal has more to do with the market for the particular mold of player than anything else.
The market for Boldin, James Jones mold of WR is consistently less than what fans predict. The "9 route" specialist guys like Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson consistently break the bank. Cobb is a slot receiver and with 70% of the passes in the NFL right now being in the middle of the field I'd think he'd be a hot commodity. He's not totally proven but he's more proven than Percy Harvin was (although Harvin also appeals to the 9 route crowd as well). I think Cobb is due something on the order of what Welker got. He's still ascending, a little more versatile than Welker, and comparable in character. Welker is obviously more proven and durable so should get more up front.
Good post, 31.
They all pay more for streak route guys bc everybody like to hit streak routes.
Wallace proves that can be fools gold.
Mike Wallace outta be arrested for his contract, he steals money every week he gets paid.
But to do that he has to play out his contract and risk a career-altering injury this year. Before the season starts I could see him getting something like a 3 year, $20 million extension with a pretty healthy signing bonus. At the end of the contract, he'd still only be 27 (he just turned 24), and be in line for one more big contract similar to what Jordy just got.
I don't think he'll get Jordy money from the Packers. I did have concerns about the way Cobb looked after he returned last year. Slower and a bit out of shape. I chalked it up to rust, but his seemingly pedestrian play in training camp gas me worried. I hope he rebounds to pre-injury level, but I'm not sure it's a given.
I think Ted Thompson did what we have seen him do before: draft to the position of the upcoming negotiations to give the team some leverage. Of the two, Nelson and Cobb, I considered Nelson the much more necessary to retain even before the draft. Even though he is so much younger, I just don't trust Cobb as much to stay healthy. I guess we can take kick returns out of the equation, and it just doesn't seem like Cobb has the zip he had when he first came to the Packers.
If he has a good year, he will price himself out of the range the Packers are ready to pay, and if he doesn't have a good year, we are better off moving forward without him.
I haven't seen any of training camp but I've read enough of McGinn to know about his tendency toward contrarianism and pot-stirring. I'm not real surprised Cobb's looked unspectacular in practice. He doesn't need to impress the coaches and knowing him is probably focusing his time on more minute parts of his game.
Cobb has always struck me as a really effective, yet somewhat unspectacular player who makes things look easier than they really are. He's not really jukey or shifty like Driver and Jennings were/are, but it seems like every time you look up he just gained about 10 more yards than you thought he did because he's always been really efficient with his movements. Same thing from the backfield. Maybe that's a little vague description but he's elusive in s vague way too. He'll make someone take a bad angle and miss but he seems to do it 5 yards before the contact would have happened rather than at the point so it's not as noticeable or spectacular as even Lacy with a spin move. Not sure what his YPC is but I bet it's really high. In practice with no tackling I can see how he'd look pedestrian but there's not much pedestrian about his football skills or productivity with the ball in his hands.
The only thing that'll keep him from being elite IMO in the upcoming years is health. I'm no doctor but I don't know of any reason why a broken bone would have a permanent or even lasting impact on his quickness or speed. I'm looking at tendencies and saying McGinn's blowing smoke.
Lmao Cobb hasn't lost a thing, unless he is looking for unreal money he will be resigned. Ted isn't going to let a 23 year old future star just walk.
If healthy, Cobb is extended. Simple as that.
Harder to do 9 routes when your QB is running for his life behind a weak O-line in Miami last year, and 5 new starters this year. Ouch.
The issue there was, Miami wasn't Mike Wallace away from going next level. Their protection and young QB issues will continue to affect Wallace until they get those things fixed and can create play action off of their run game.
Cobbs not going anywhere. I was worried about losing Nelson, not Cobb. I think TT will extend him mid season after he proves he recovered from injury but before he reaches 1200+ yards. He will likely sign a 3 year extension averaging 7 million a year. Added to the last half of his rookie deal it will be worth about 6 million/year. In a few years he'll still only be 27 yo and if he puts together back to back dominate seasons and stays healthy he'll get the 10 million + type deal.
If you are Cobb, and you reach midseason healthy and on course for a second big season to go with the one you had in 2012, would you sign a 3 year contract averaging $7 million, or take your chances on the second half of the season and shoot for a big money, longer term contract in the off season, perhaps with significant guaranteed money? I think I would take my chances getting to the off season. Even if the second half doesn't go as well, absent a devastating injury, the 3/$7M likely will still be there in the off season.
All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.
Another factor not being discussed is Arron Rodgers. This is big leverage for the packers. If I was in Cobbs position I would take 1 or 2 million less/year to stay in GB and play with Rodgers in the prime of his career. I would consider it a long term investment as Rodgers will make me look better and will line me up for another big pay day at only 27 years old.
It does depend on Cobb. Watching the 2010 tape, with Jennings in his prime, that little seam route that was so dominant that year..... Cobb hasnt been as good as Jennings was. If his head is right, a three year deal makes sense. Jennings contract stubbornness blowing up in his face really helped the packers in negotiations and i think that carries over into this one too. I think he'll stay, 3 years, makes sense.
Or, a Finley-like injury could end it all. While I might be willing to sign the three year extension now, before the season starts, if I make it through the first 8 games or so putting together a big season, I think I would risk the next 8 against the next 40 to 56 games to sign the once-in-a-career big contract.
At some point in your career you have to go for the big one. If it is in sight with 8 games remaining, I would go for it.
That sounds right to me too Joe. Seems like the ideal situation for everyone. Not too different from what Finley got (for 2 years I think his last deal was though) but I'd say Cobb's a better bet.
I wonder who's not on this path yet - Thompson or Cobb. I'm thinking Thompson at the moment... Cobb really hasn't earned that deal yet, but I think he's worth it and then some.
I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".
If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.
again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone
is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?
like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years
jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?
For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.
That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.
Exactly. When you sign them early, you take away risk from them and replace it not only with more compensation, but some form of guarantee.
The longer that contract plays out, the less risk the player faces. Unless he has a catastrophic year or an injury, his price will not go down as the season progresses.
But I have no feel for how much he will get. I underestimated Nelson's attractiveness to the Packers and slot guys are now more in demand than ever. But right now, he would need to climb another step for me to predict he will clear $9 mil per year.
Not that it is definitive, but Nelson looks like a guy who might miss a game or two here and there, and that is what he has been. He's bigger than most DBs. Cobb looks like a guy who can get broken in half. Except for his broken leg, he hasn't been that. Driver looked the same. So did Jennings. Hopefully, Cobb's career follows more like that of Drivers than Jennings.
No body expects a player to never be injured. If there is a warning sign for Cobb, it is that in three years he has missed at least a game every year, while playing less than full-time snaps. But, it's only three years, and a broken bone was the big one, and that can be a freak one.
If I am the Packers, I'm not all that worried about Cobbs' injuries. Anyone can break a bone. Anyone can tear up a knee, anyone can screw up his neck...at any time. Those are a team's biggest risks beyond a guy who is frail. If I am Cobb, my risk of a big injury that anyone can get is a factor in what $ I will sign for when, but that is the same for every player.
Remember Driver's scary injury, getting flipped over and landing straight down on his head? I remember thinking at the time it was possible he would never play again. Looking at his career statistics though, you can't even tell when that happened, the guy missed almost no time his entire career! He played 15 or 16 games 11 of 13 seasons (ignoring his rookie year). Took some looking, but it was week 1 vs the Vikings in 2003, and he missed only one game! Dude was made of rubber.
cobb will get a great contract...period. one that reflects the market and his stats.
the Packers aren't even close to having cap issues so a great contract is no problem. he's worth it, Rodgers needs weapons, get it done when it's time. what other core player needs taken care of right now...or next year? if i remember right isn't the cap taking a big jump soon?
actually, its paying two top WR's that kind of money while you have a wealth of talent behind them on the depth chart, while also paying the guy who makes them all look good (a-rod) huge money, that quickly gets a team into cap hell
Exactly. Three years ago, some thought it would be a catastrophe if Jennings wasn't resigned. If they had paid Jennings two years ago when he reportedly turned down a sizable offer, would they have resigned Nelson this year? Signed Peppers? Had the money to think about signing Cobb? Could they have? Probably. Would they have? Probably not all of those things. Jennings is gone, but GB looks like they will be OK at WR anyway.
"wealth of talent"? There isn't a guy behind Cobb that's half the player he is.
I wouldn't mind shopping Cobb. For a guy like Cobb to get their yards he'd have to catch something on the order of 90 balls a year. He's certainly a nice weapon but something of a luxury for us while in another situation he could be a one man offense. With what the Vikings got for Harvin I'm curious what the offers would be for Cobb. Cobb isn't the elite athlete that Harvin is but has similar utility and is 10x the man.
Two articles on Cobb and what the next contract might look like. Banks said it might be high enough that the Cobb deal could top Nelson's deal. His agent is Jimmy Sexton and Sexton usually gets good deals.
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/20/ran...en-bay-packers
Demovsky says almost certainly Cobb won't get Nelson money and expects the Packers to keep the two together, sen though there are other FAs to sign.
http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-pa...n-duo-together
Slot guys have been getting deals more like #1 WRs as time has gone on. And the cap takes a jump next year. I don't think its impossible he gets to $9 mil per year anymore. However, there is a theory rolling around that WRs, regardless of cap situation, are about to experience a hair cut like RBs began to take a few years ago. We'll see. I hope we don't need to wait to see it play out.
Sign him for the same as Jordy. Not a huge fan but he is showing up, add a TE and we will be terrifying to DCs around the NFL.