For all you HAWK Fans

History, depth could keep Hawk out of top five


By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst


(April 5, 2006) -- The NFL draft is getting closer, and there are teams that spend a lot of time on the history of where certain position players are selected.

We regularly hear about the "elite" positions like quarterback, pass-rushing defensive ends, cover corners, defensive tackles with rare size/speed ratios, and offensive left tackles. The great ones at these positions get gobbled up quickly year in and year out. When multiple players end up the evaluation process with the same numerical grades, the position they play usually is the deciding factor.


If A.J. Hawk goes in the top five, he would be the first linebacker to do it since 2000.
With that in mind, this draft has the terrific Ohio State linebacker A.J. Hawk in the top 10 on every draft board. In fact, former Cleveland Browns head coach Butch Davis lists him as his top defensive player in the draft, which makes him a top-five player. The consensus opinion of the NFL personnel people and coaches I have spoken with is Hawk is about No. 5 or No. 6 on most draft boards at this early stage of "stacking" the draft board.

Now the draft historians take a look at the success rate of taking a linebacker in the top of the draft. Linebackers have a checkered past in the draft.

I went back as far as 1990 to look at the NFL draft patterns for all linebackers in the first round to see if there is a case to take Hawk as high as fifth in the draft, or is closer to 10th -- the comfort level people who study these patterns would like to see. (I eliminated the 'tweeners who became defensive ends; even though they were listed as linebackers, they were drafted to put their hand on the ground and rush the passer.)

There were some interesting patterns over the past 16 years that will be discussed in war rooms around the league.

Since 1990, there have been only 39 outside linebackers drafted in the first round, and only 15 inside/middle linebackers to hear their name called in the opening round. Let's take it a step further and look at how many of those 54 linebackers were drafted in the top 10 picks. Only eight outside linebackers and six inside/middle linebackers were top-10 selections since 1990. That's less than one per year.

With Hawk up near the top of the board, I drilled down to see how many linebackers have been selected in the top five picks.

Now the numbers are down to seven outside 'backers and only two inside guys. That's nine linebackers in the top five over the past 16 years. The average draft position in the first round for all linebackers is the 15th or 16th spot. The linebackers of note who have been picked late in the first round are Derrick Brooks (No. 28 in 1995), Ray Lewis (No. 26 in 1996) and Al Wilson (No. 31 in 1999), which looks as good or even better than the group drafted in the top five.


NFL LINEBACKERS PICKED WITH A TOP FIVE PICK
1990 Junior Seau
1991 Mike Croel
1992 Quentin Coryatt
1993 Marvin Jones
1994 Willie McGinest, Trev Albert
1995 None
1996 Kevin Hardy
1997 Peter Boulware
1998 None
1999 None
2000 LaVar Arrington
2001 None
2002 None
2003 None
2004 None
2005 None




As you can see, the pattern of drafting linebackers in the top five picks has really dropped off, so it will be difficult for Hawk to reverse this trend even though he deserves to be recognized as a top player in this draft. Hawk has 368 career tackles, 37 tackles for a loss and 14½ sacks (9½ in 2005).

The depth at the linebacker position, which I believe is the deepest of all the defensive positions, could be another factor that could work against Hawk. Ernie Sims, Chad Greenway, DeMeco Ryans, Bobby Carpenter, Manny Lawson, Kamerion Wimbley and Thomas Howard among others who easily could be options for a team if it decides to select at another position early in the first round with thoughts of coming back in the early second round.

I've gone over the last 10 years of the draft to point out that almost all of the LBs drafted in the top 15 the last 10 years have been very good, and there are a ton of teams regretting their decisions to pass on a LB. Just because that's the way it's been doesn't mean those were the right decisions.

2005
Derrick Johnson, Shawne Merriman, and Demarcus Ware were passed up for guys like Adam Jones, Troy Williamson, Cedric Benson, and Mike Williams.

2004
Jonathan Vilman and D.J. Williams were passed up for guys like Kellen Winslow, Roy Williams, and Reggie Williams

2003
Nick Barnett was passed up for guys like Charles Rogers, Jonathan Sullivan, Jimmy Kennedy, Michael Haynes, Bryant Johnson, Calvin Pace, and Kyle Boller.

2001
Dan Morgan was passed up for guys like David Terrell and Jamal Reynolds.

2000
Brian Urlacher and Julian Peterson were passed up for guys like Peter Warrick, Thomas Jones, Travis Taylor, and Ron Dayne.

1998
Keith Brooking and Takeo Spikes were passed up for guys like Ryan Leaf, Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, and Duane Starks.

1997
James Farrior was passed up for guys like Darrell Russell, Bryant Westbrook, and Ike Hilliard.

1996
John Mobley and Ray Lewis were passed up for guys like Cedric Jones, Lawrence Phillips, Rickey Dudley, Alex Molden, and Regan Upshaw.

In addition to this, just about every prospect has questions in the draft. The two for sure players to me are AJ Hawk and Ngata.

Hawk is just such a knowledgeable player. He will at the very least be solid.

Ngata's one job will to be to eat blockers. With his size and strength, that won't be a problem. He'll never be a pass rusher, but he is a good grady jackson figure. He knows the best candy!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Partial

Ngata's one job will to be to eat blockers. With his size and strength, that won't be a problem. He'll never be a pass rusher, but he is a good grady jackson figure. He knows the best candy!!

---

I don't beleive in Ngata. I think hes going to be another guy like Hunt...lots of potential but never achieved greatness because of the lack of serious lack of effort. Oregon seems to beleive this guys an absolute dud. He might pop in here and tell you what he thinks. :wink:

Hawk will never be like Ray Lewis or Urlacher but I think he might be better than them dropping back into coverage, which he will be expected to do. He's also a good blitzer, disrupts running lanes, and is a good tackler. Very good overall. Like Harv said, the ones that were picked high, panned out. I think he's the safest pick. For sure a starter right away.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by packrulz

Hawk will never be like Ray Lewis or Urlacher but I think he might be better than them dropping back into coverage, which he will be expected to do. He's also a good blitzer, disrupts running lanes, and is a good tackler. Very good overall. Like Harv said, the ones that were picked high, panned out. I think he's the safest pick. For sure a starter right away.

---

Thats debatable that hawk will NEVER be as good as lewis and urlacher. I mean he deffinetly wont be right away, but he could, no one knows the future. For all we know he could be the next super star LB. Proably not but i mean saying never is a lil harsh.

You're right NB. I guess never was the wrong word. My point was that Hawk is probably more athletic and better in pass coverage but maybe not as good at stuffing the run, but that don't mean he never will be. If they take him I'll be happy. #5 ain't a bad place to be.

Hawk should be the pick - overwhelmingly.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterblaster

Hawk should be the pick - overwhelmingly.

---

Not neccesarily. And thats why we disscuse it. cause what about if Mario falls. That guy is a monster

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Masterblaster

Hawk should be the pick - overwhelmingly.

---

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/5343/mario7ic.th.jpg

C'mon, just look at him.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

I've gone over the last 10 years of the draft to point out that almost all of the LBs drafted in the top 15 the last 10 years have been very good, and there are a ton of teams regretting their decisions to pass on a LB. Just because that's the way it's been doesn't mean those were the right decisions.

2005
Derrick Johnson, Shawne Merriman, and Demarcus Ware were passed up for guys like Adam Jones, Troy Williamson, Cedric Benson, and Mike Williams.

2004
Jonathan Vilman and D.J. Williams were passed up for guys like Kellen Winslow, Roy Williams, and Reggie Williams

2003
Nick Barnett was passed up for guys like Charles Rogers, Jonathan Sullivan, Jimmy Kennedy, Michael Haynes, Bryant Johnson, Calvin Pace, and Kyle Boller.

2001
Dan Morgan was passed up for guys like David Terrell and Jamal Reynolds.

2000
Brian Urlacher and Julian Peterson were passed up for guys like Peter Warrick, Thomas Jones, Travis Taylor, and Ron Dayne.

1998
Keith Brooking and Takeo Spikes were passed up for guys like Ryan Leaf, Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, and Duane Starks.

1997
James Farrior was passed up for guys like Darrell Russell, Bryant Westbrook, and Ike Hilliard.

1996
John Mobley and Ray Lewis were passed up for guys like Cedric Jones, Lawrence Phillips, Rickey Dudley, Alex Molden, and Regan Upshaw.

---

Ron Dayne and Travis Taylor were not picked above Urlacher

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bretsky

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

I've gone over the last 10 years of the draft to point out that almost all of the LBs drafted in the top 15 the last 10 years have been very good, and there are a ton of teams regretting their decisions to pass on a LB. Just because that's the way it's been doesn't mean those were the right decisions.

2005
Derrick Johnson, Shawne Merriman, and Demarcus Ware were passed up for guys like Adam Jones, Troy Williamson, Cedric Benson, and Mike Williams.

2004
Jonathan Vilman and D.J. Williams were passed up for guys like Kellen Winslow, Roy Williams, and Reggie Williams

2003
Nick Barnett was passed up for guys like Charles Rogers, Jonathan Sullivan, Jimmy Kennedy, Michael Haynes, Bryant Johnson, Calvin Pace, and Kyle Boller.

2001
Dan Morgan was passed up for guys like David Terrell and Jamal Reynolds.

2000
Brian Urlacher and Julian Peterson were passed up for guys like Peter Warrick, Thomas Jones, Travis Taylor, and Ron Dayne.

1998
Keith Brooking and Takeo Spikes were passed up for guys like Ryan Leaf, Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, and Duane Starks.

1997
James Farrior was passed up for guys like Darrell Russell, Bryant Westbrook, and Ike Hilliard.

1996
John Mobley and Ray Lewis were passed up for guys like Cedric Jones, Lawrence Phillips, Rickey Dudley, Alex Molden, and Regan Upshaw.

---

Ron Dayne and Travis Taylor were not picked above Urlacher

---

1st Round Picks: 2000
PK(OVR) TEAM NAME POS SCHOOL
1(1) Cleveland COURTNEY BROWN DE PENN STATE
2(2) Washington LAVAR ARRINGTON LB PENN STATE
3(3) Washington CHRIS SAMUELS OT ALABAMA
4(4) Cincinnati PETER WARRICK WR FLORIDA STATE
5(5) Baltimore JAMAL LEWIS RB TENNESSEE
6(6) Philadelphia COREY SIMON DT FLORIDA STATE
7(7) Arizona THOMAS JONES RB VIRGINIA
8(8) Pittsburgh PLAXICO BURRESS WR MICHIGAN STATE
9(9) Chicago BRIAN URLACHER LB NEW MEXICO
10(10) Baltimore TRAVIS TAYLOR WR FLORIDA
11(11) NY Giants RON DAYNE RB WISCONSIN
12(12) NY Jets SHAUN ELLIS DE TENNESSEE
13(13) NY Jets JOHN ABRAHAM LB SOUTH CAROLINA
14(14) Green Bay BUBBA FRANKS TE MIAMI (FLA.)
15(15) Denver DELTHA O'NEAL DB CALIFORNIA
16(16) San Francisco JULIAN PETERSON LB MICHIGAN STATE
17(17) Oakland SEBASTIAN JANIKOWSKI K FLORIDA STATE
18(18) NY Jets CHAD PENNINGTON QB MARSHALL
19(19) Seattle SHAUN ALEXANDER RB ALABAMA
20(20) Detroit STOCKAR MCDOUGLE OT OKLAHOMA
21(21) Kansas City SYLVESTER MORRIS WR JACKSON STATE
22(22) Seattle CHRIS MCINTOSH OT WISCONSIN
23(23) Carolina RASHARD ANDERSON DB JACKSON STATE
24(24) San Francisco AHMED PLUMMER DB OHIO STATE
25(25) Minnesota CHRIS HOVAN DT BOSTON COLLEGE
26(26) Buffalo ERIK FLOWERS DE ARIZONA STATE
27(27) NY Jets ANTHONY BECHT TE WEST VIRGINIA
28(28) Indianapolis ROB MORRIS LB BYU
29(29) Jacksonville R. JAY SOWARD WR USC
30(30) Tennessee KEITH BULLUCK LB SYRACUSE
31(31) St. Louis TRUNG CANDIDATE RB ARIZONA

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

2000
Brian Urlacher and Julian Peterson were passed up for guys like Peter Warrick, Thomas Jones, Travis Taylor, and Ron Dayne.

---

Yet u could argue that shaun alexander was passed up for ppl like peterson and urlacher

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bretsky

Ron Dayne and Travis Taylor were not picked above Urlacher

---

They went above Peterson.

I didn't say Urlacher was passed up by Dayne. I said Urlacher and Peterson were passed up by guys like Dayne, Taylor, etc. Worded poorly, but you get my point. Urlacher was passed up for a couple of stiffs, and Peterson was passed up by even more stiffs.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nick Barnett

Yet u could argue that shaun alexander was passed up for ppl like peterson and urlacher

---

Right. You could do this for any position, but I think it's pretty stupid to say that a LB shouldn't go in the top 5-10. Just look at the history of the draft. There are plenty of times when you look back and say a LB should have gone in the top 5-10.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bretsky

Ron Dayne and Travis Taylor were not picked above Urlacher

---

They went above Peterson.

I didn't say Urlacher was passed up by Dayne. I said Urlacher and Peterson were passed up by guys like Dayne, Taylor, etc. Worded poorly, but you get my point. Urlacher was passed up for a couple of stiffs, and Peterson was passed up by even more stiffs.

---

You've called me on a few; couldn't resist the opportunity to correct your verbage when I saw the Dayne Urlacher reference cause I knew that wasn't true. :wink:

Theres one part about this I don't get; why does everyone worry so much about the number? I mean if we have the number 5 pick and want some unherralded kid that was projected to go at 14, who really cares? We take who we want regardless of the number. Except for whoever 1-4 takes, we have our pick of anyone, don't we?

Bretsky, I've been busting you a little in a couple threads - we disagree on TT, and on some draft choices. But I have to say this: I was with you on Odell Thurman last year. I was hoping TT would trade down a few spaces, pick up another third round pick, and grab Thurman. And we were right on him, too. He had a heck of a year.

This year, Bobby Carpenter of Hohio State is my man. I think he was nearly as good as Hawk.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fritz

Bretsky, I've been busting you a little in a couple threads - we disagree on TT, and on some draft choices. But I have to say this: I was with you on Odell Thurman last year. I was hoping TT would trade down a few spaces, pick up another third round pick, and grab Thurman. And we were right on him, too. He had a heck of a year.

This year, Bobby Carpenter of Hohio State is my man. I think he was nearly as good as Hawk.

---

FRITZ,

Well, we definitely agree two years in a row then ! I've actually been pitching the idea of Hawk in round one and Carpenter in round two. Our LBing crew would go from a weakness to a strength for many years to come.

AJ Hawk is going to be a wonderful pro, and it's probably that Carpenter will as well.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fritz

Bretsky, I've been busting you a little in a couple threads - we disagree on TT, and on some draft choices. But I have to say this: I was with you on Odell Thurman last year. I was hoping TT would trade down a few spaces, pick up another third round pick, and grab Thurman. And we were right on him, too. He had a heck of a year.

This year, Bobby Carpenter of Hohio State is my man. I think he was nearly as good as Hawk.

---

FRITZ,

I remember that from rapping with you last year. It would have been an easy plan to execute. Find some sucker to trade up 7-10 spots to get Aaron Rodgers, and draft Odell Thurman and Nick Collins. Boy that would have been a sweet draft right there, pluse they'd have added a 3rd round pick.

Now all signs are pointing that they are actually considering Vince Young, and that is just as much a reflection on Rodgers as it is on how good Young might be.

Not sure about that, Bretsky, not sure. TT strikes me as the guy who not only says he'll take the best available athlete, but actually will. I think picking Young is not an indictment of Rogers, not necessarily. However, if TT got both Hawk and Carpenter that would fix the linebacking problem in a millisecond.

Still, if Mario Williams happens to be sitting there at #5, I'd grab him. If not, I'd trade down a couple spots (I think Oakland might want to jump ahead of San Fran, or maybe Boofalo will), pick up an extra second rounder, and then grab Hawk. Have your cake and eat it too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fritz

Not sure about that, Bretsky, not sure. TT strikes me as the guy who not only says he'll take the best available athlete, but actually will. I think picking Young is not an indictment of Rogers, not necessarily. However, if TT got both Hawk and Carpenter that would fix the linebacking problem in a millisecond.

Still, if Mario Williams happens to be sitting there at #5, I'd grab him. If not, I'd trade down a couple spots (I think Oakland might want to jump ahead of San Fran, or maybe Boofalo will), pick up an extra second rounder, and then grab Hawk. Have your cake and eat it too.

---

I'll rephrase; if TT had confidence that Aaron Rodgers were the answer he'd ignore Young. Best available is fine, but with a top 5 pick you won't see Green Bay drafting a LT, or at least I don't think they will, even if Ferguson is best available.

I would not mind seeing that trade occur, but I do think it's a pipe dream. The Raiders don't think we are taking a QB so they won't be offering much to trade up. And they are also said to be enamored by AJ Hawk, who the Niners also like. I guess I could see Buffalo, but I'd be very disappointed if we traded out of what I think is the top tier of players..Leinart, M Williams, V Davis, Reggie Bush, Ferguson, and AJ Hawk. If we move to 8 we won't see any of those guys.

Looks like this thread has taken a different direction, but back to Hawk...

Pete Prisco's latest draft has Hawk going #2 to NO - that's definitely the highest I've seen him on the board (He has BG taking Mario, btw)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guiness

Looks like this thread has taken a different direction, but back to Hawk...

Pete Prisco's latest draft has Hawk going #2 to NO - that's definitely the highest I've seen him on the board (He has BG taking Mario, btw)

---

I listed to ESPN today while I was shopping for a birthday gift for a female realtor who sends me a lot of clients.

The ESPN guy Todd McShay sp ? was getting interviewed.

He's completely convinced the Saints are drafting Mario now, and also thinks the Jets brass actually wants D Ferguson and is hoping Leinart is off the board by then so it's an easy choice.

He also noted the Titan brass is split and the scouts want V Young, but the coaches prefer Leinart. Norm Chow, Leinart's old offensive coach, really wants him.

He thinks Green Bay ends up with the Hawkmeister, but said TT and scouts have shown a keen interest in Vince Young.

If Favre doesn't come back and Thompson takes a quarterback at #5, he needs to admit the fact to the fans of the Green Bay Packers that Rogers was the wrong pick last year, and that he made a terrible mistake that might hold this franchise back for several years.

He takes Hawk, he automatically improves the defense ten fold.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nutz

If Favre doesn't come back and Thompson takes a quarterback at #5, he needs to admit the fact to the fans of the Green Bay Packers that Rogers was the wrong pick last year, and that he made a terrible mistake that might hold this franchise back for several years.

He takes Hawk, he automatically improves the defense ten fold.

---

I agree completely; The reason I HATED the Rodgers pick last year, excluding his average at best arm, was the fact that decent and more proven QB's are available every year. We had a chance to stack the defensive talent on our roster last year with multiple picks and instead went for a QB and WR.

Hawk makes an incredibly weak group slightly below average. Maybe we get lucky in round 2 and Carpenter slips and our group is strong for many years to come.

One can only hope

One thing to consider: maybe TT is letting it get out he's enamored with Young so that the Raiders decide they'd best trade up to get him.

My fantasy (beyond the one about the hot older woman) is that it goes Bush, Ferguson, Young, Leinart, and Williams to the Pack with the #5. Barring that I'd like to see them trade down to #7 or #8 and grab Hawk and a second round pick. Personally I believe Hawk will still be there at #8 even.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fritz

One thing to consider: maybe TT is letting it get out he's enamored with Young so that the Raiders decide they'd best trade up to get him.

My fantasy (beyond the one about the hot older woman) is that it goes Bush, Ferguson, Young, Leinart, and Williams to the Pack with the #5. Barring that I'd like to see them trade down to #7 or #8 and grab Hawk and a second round pick. Personally I believe Hawk will still be there at #8 even.

---

San Fran will lost their top LB and has a need there. I'd be surprised if they pass him up. And if Buffalo trades up there and grabs Young there is no way Hawk lasts til 8 IMO

I kind of think because the Pack has such a need at that spot we are overvaluing the linebacker spot. San Fran has many needs, like the Pack. A fast, strong tight end like Davis, for example. Or a corner/safety. Remember too this is supposed to be a deep year for linebackers, so teams may think they can pick a guy up later.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fritz

I kind of think because the Pack has such a need at that spot we are overvaluing the linebacker spot. San Fran has many needs, like the Pack. A fast, strong tight end like Davis, for example. Or a corner/safety. Remember too this is supposed to be a deep year for linebackers, so teams may think they can pick a guy up later.

---

I'm going back to my roots here.

The best 6 players in this draft in no particular order are

Leinart
Bush
Hawk
Williams
Ferguson
Davis

I want one. I don't have a good feel of whether V Young belongs in there or not. But I think most GM's would have these six at the top and then some would included Young and some would not.

I've closely watched AJ Hawk for four bloody Ohio State hating years. The guy is awesome. I'd have no problem with Ted Thompson taking AJ Hawk over Mario Williams, who has tremendous upside but I'm not convinced he'll contribute that much in his rookie year.