McCarthy and "Close Games"

[retailguy]

McCarthy in games decided by one score

2006 4-2
2007 5-2
2008 1-7
2009 3-3
2010 2-6

Total = 15-20. Take out 2008, and the record is 14-13 (Rodgers first year and the defensive collapses). Apparently, McCarthy was a great coach in 2006 and 2007, an average coach in 2009, and a bad coach in 2008 and 2010.

Look, I understand what you guys are saying, and to an extent, I agree with you.

But ask yourself (looking into the bathroom mirror, all alone where no one can see you and you don't have to admit it to anyone), if you can go into a close 4th quarter battle with a division foe, and you can only take ONE coach, do you take McCarthy?

Me neither.

And that's OK. He is what he is, and we've got him indefinitely.

(And I disagree with the sentiment that he's better than Sherman. I see them as equivalent coaches in different ways.)

[vince]

McCarthy has some proving to do yet, but the fascination with this year's record in games decided by 4 or less is hand-picking stats to support preconceived opinion.

Going into yesterday's huge game with playoff implications against a team most thought was custom-built for just such a situation, McCarthy's team kicked the living shit out of its opponent.

Yeah, I'll take that.

[retailguy]

McCarthy has some proving to do yet, but the fascination with this year's record in games decided by 4 or less is hand-picking stats to support preconceived opinion. Going into yesterday's huge game with playoff implications against a team most thought was custom-built for just such a situation, McCarthy kicked the shit out of his opponent.

Yeah, I'll take that.

Well Vince, there are some who continually harp on the 4 pts statistic, and it is what it is. Other things are just as important, if not more. At the end of the day, I'm in the Bretsky camp, McCarthy is average, to slightly above. Just like Sherman. Time will tell if he can improve on that.

I happen to believe that McCarthy puts too much value on "creativity and outsmarting" his opponents instead of just going out and flawlessly executing the things that your team does well and making the opponent stop you. Both have a place, and both are critical parts of a coaches job, but I'd like to see more of #2 and less of #1. I believe that makes #1 more effective, and more of an effective #2 makes for longer, sustained drives.

I just think, at the end of the day, these very vocal defenses of an average coach dilute your point. Honestly you guys are making McCarthy appear to be the second coming of Christ, when in reality, I'm not so sure that McCarthy makes an average John the Baptist. What you guys are doing is no different than what the "4pt crowd" is doing. You're just on the other extreme.

[vince]

McCarthy is what he is. 14 games over .500 with a young ascending team and an unproven playoff record. There's a lot ahead to be determined here. So far, he's on the right path in the big picture. Those bashing him and wanting him gone based on an overly small sample size and hand-picked data at this point are grossly premature in my opinion. I can't speak for others, but any other interpretation of my position on McCarthy is an inaccurate projection by those making it.

[retailguy]

McCarthy is what he is. 14 games over .500 with a young ascending team and an unproven playoff record. There's a lot ahead to be determined here. So far, he's on the right path in the big picture. Those bashing him and wanting him gone based on an overly small sample size and hand-picked data at this point are grossly premature in my opinion. I can't speak for others, but any other interpretation of my position on McCarthy is an inaccurate projection by those making it.

I'd agree with you, but I'd also say that you've got an inaccurate projection too.

When I said McCarthy is average, I think you nailed it when you said "he is what he is". Occasionally he'll strike lightning in a bottle and we'll look like world beaters. But can we build on that? I'm not so sure.

I'm watching pre game warm ups for the Falcons right now. What we'll see out of them tonight are plays that they do well consistently. We'll see 25 carries out of turner, most likely. We'll see a fair share of TE dumpoffs to Gonzalez, and we'll see some passes out there for Roddy White to take away from the defense. In short, we'll see a few creative plays, but the bulk will be "this is who we are, and this is what we do". It's been successful to the tune of 2 losses, vs our 6. (Yes, injuries explain some of that, stick with me for a minute more.)

I'm just not convinced that "a team" can build on McCarthy's creativity. A team can build around plays they do well. They can execute them better and better over time (ala U71). They can improve and extend them and change looks and just flat out execute them. McCarthy's way? Not so sure. Too much change and finesse, and less repetition.

I believe I see too much "what's next coach?", out of the players, and less "I can do that again, just get me the ball".

I think it's tougher for McCarthy's team to build off the 45-17 drubbing, than it would be for the Falcons. Guess we'll see next year, huh? In the meantime, we'll see which Packers show up next week. Will it be the week 3 version, or the week 16 version? With McCarthy, you never know. With the Falcons? I think the difference is clear, guess I'll find out in the next hour or so.

[bobblehead]

McCarthy in games decided by one score

2006 4-2
2007 5-2
2008 1-7
2009 3-3
2010 2-6

Total = 15-20. Take out 2008, and the record is 14-13 (Rodgers first year and the defensive collapses). Apparently, McCarthy was a great coach in 2006 and 2007, an average coach in 2009, and a bad coach in 2008 and 2010.

He was riding Favre's greatness in '06.....before anyone says something so stupid, he rode it to an 8-8 record if i recall.

[bobblehead]

Look, I understand what you guys are saying, and to an extent, I agree with you.

But ask yourself (looking into the bathroom mirror, all alone where no one can see you and you don't have to admit it to anyone), if you can go into a close 4th quarter battle with a division foe, and you can only take ONE coach, do you take McCarthy?

Me neither.

And that's OK. He is what he is, and we've got him indefinitely.

(And I disagree with the sentiment that he's better than Sherman. I see them as equivalent coaches in different ways.)

Agree with the shermy comparison...his failure was as a GM and inability to get Favre to stop throwing late over the middle. You asked who I would take as my ONE coach....depends on who the players are. They win and lose games. Coaches put them in position to win or lose....MM consistently has them in position to win. He is fine. He CAN win the big one. Will he?? Depends on the players.

[Bretsky]

McCarthy's record is 48-34. Regardless of your feelings Bretsky, the facts show that he's done better than average while Thompson has rebuilt the roster from the gound up and he's done it with the youngest teams in the league year in and year out. He's developed the team into one of the most competitive in the league that now looks an awful lot like a perennial contender. That's a bit better than average I'd say.

Gosh I didn't think was part of the extremist group some are in here who are calling MM a bad playcaller and calling for him to be fired; I think I defend him way more than criticizing him n game threads and there is nothing wrong with being average as an NFL coach

I think I"ve noted he'd probably be in the 14-18 group of coaches in my book; you can twist stats either way. I'm not going to say he's above average due to 48-34 and I'm not going to say he's below average or shoud be fired due to the record in close games.

[Bretsky]

Agree with the shermy comparison...his failure was as a GM and inability to get Favre to stop throwing late over the middle. You asked who I would take as my ONE coach....depends on who the players are. They win and lose games. Coaches put them in position to win or lose....MM consistently has them in position to win. He is fine. He CAN win the big one. Will he?? Depends on the players.

completely agree

[mraynrand]

Gosh I didn't think was part of the extremist group some are in here who are calling MM a bad playcaller and calling for him to be fired; I think I defend him way more than criticizing him n game threads and there is nothing wrong with being average as an NFL coach

I think I"ve noted he'd probably be in the 14-18 group of coaches in my book; you can twist stats either way. I'm not going to say he's above average due to 48-34 and I'm not going to say he's below average or shoud be fired due to the record in close games.

There are 13 coaches better than Stubby?

[Bossman641]

I'd be interested in seeing how some of you rank the coaches. I might take a stab at it later.

[Joemailman]

Gosh I didn't think was part of the extremist group some are in here who are calling MM a bad playcaller and calling for him to be fired; I think I defend him way more than criticizing him n game threads and there is nothing wrong with being average as an NFL coach

I think I"ve noted he'd probably be in the 14-18 group of coaches in my book; you can twist stats either way. I'm not going to say he's above average due to 48-34 and I'm not going to say he's below average or shoud be fired due to the record in close games.

The fact that he has been good enough to last for 5 seasons makes him by itself above average. Perhaps it can be said he is average among those coaches who have been good enough to make it.

[Bretsky]

I'd be interested in seeing how some of you rank the coaches. I might take a stab at it later.

I'll give it a stab at another date........but.......here are guys off the top of my head I'd take over Stubby

Some will be more proven and some less proven

From the AFC

Hoody Genius--Best of the Best
Mike Tomlin-----No Brainer
Jeff Fischer-----Perhaps I overrate this guy but I've always put him in the top tier of coaches
Jim Caldwell----Gotta give him his due for keeping the truck rolling
John Harbaugh--Excellent coach
Rey Ryan----------------debateable whether I'd take him or MM

From the NFC

Sean Payton--No Brainer
Mike Smith--No Brainer
Andy Reid--No Brainer
Ken Whisenhunt---Not sure about this one either


OK, so by my own admission since there are 32 teams I have to consider MM above average and perhaps a top 8-10 NFL Coach right now.
Certainly not a guy I'd ponder firing

For those who think less of him I'd challenge you to list the coaches you'd take over MM; when you look at the list there are a lot of really raw and unproven coaches out there

[HarveyWallbangers]

To me, Caldwell, Smith, Ryan, and Harbaugh are a wash. What have they done that McCarthy hasn't? I have a feeling that Ryan won't last that long in New York. Caldwell inherited a Super Bowl caliber team and Peyton Manning. I think Peyton would make a lot of coaches look good. Harbaugh has been to one Championship Game. Smith hasn't even won a playoff game. Personally, I'd give Harbaugh the nod and I'd call the rest pretty even.

To me, no brainers are Billy B, Tomlin, Fisher (even though I might be overrating him also), Payton, and Reid. Perhaps Harbaugh. Honestly, those are the only guys that I'd fire McCarthy for right now.

I wouldn't put Whisenhunt up there, but I think John Fox is actually a good coach who is in a terrible situation in Carolina because of the QB situation.

[Bossman641]

I'll give it a stab at another date........but.......here are guys off the top of my head I'd take over Stubby

Some will be more proven and some less proven

From the AFC

Hoody Genius--Best of the Best
Mike Tomlin-----No Brainer
Jeff Fischer-----Perhaps I overrate this guy but I've always put him in the top tier of coaches
Jim Caldwell----Gotta give him his due for keeping the truck rolling
John Harbaugh--Excellent coach
Rey Ryan----------------debateable whether I'd take him or MM

From the NFC

Sean Payton--No Brainer
Mike Smith--No Brainer
Andy Reid--No Brainer
Ken Whisenhunt---Not sure about this one either


OK, so by my own admission since there are 32 teams I have to consider MM above average and perhaps a top 8-10 NFL Coach right now.
Certainly not a guy I'd ponder firing

For those who think less of him I'd challenge you to list the coaches you'd take over MM; when you look at the list there are a lot of really raw and unproven coaches out there

Only one I really disagree with is Fisher, especially with his record as of late. Titans haven't been to a championship game since 2002 and have made the playoffs only 2 times in the past 7 years. Add in his handling of VY and he is a definite no for me.

Caldwell is also a no. Between Tom Moore and Manning, I don't think he has much to do at all with the running of that team.

A couple of the younger coaches I like are Spagnuolo and Haley. They have turned those teams around much quicker than anticipated.

[Bretsky]

To be honest with younger coaches I tried to veer away from unless they've had extreme success. I would not argue against Haley or Spagnuolo myself.....but once you put out a list it often gets butchered and I figured that would be the case if I put any young guys out there who have yet to be successful

[mraynrand]

To be honest with younger coaches I tried to veer away from unless they've had extreme success. I would not argue against Haley or Spagnuolo myself.....but once you put out a list it often gets butchered and I figured that would be the case if I put any young guys out there who have yet to be successful

That's the rub. Once you start naming names and looking at coaches' accomplishments, you realize that Stubby really is up there between 5-10. Like Harv, I too think Fox is high quality, but the deal with McCarthy, like Holmgren and Reid, is that they are so good at coaching offense...you get the defensive guru in there at D coor and you can really start piling up wins. What makes Belichick so good, other than cheating, is that he's awesome at defense, and has a O-coordinator out there on the field at QB, much like Manning. Rodgers is getting there...

But the question remains: can Stubby push all the right buttons to get a Packer team the Lombardi trophy. The talent (with a reasonable number of injuries, unlike this year) is clearly there.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm not completely sold on McCarthy, but I like a lot of what he brings. I think the close losses mostly come down to dumb luck.

Last year, the Packers trailed the Bears 15-13 with 2 minutes left. Rodgers threw the game winner. Packers won 21-15. Later in the year, the Packers trailed the Bears 14-13 heading into the 4th quarter. They scored the game winning TD in the 4th quarter and won 21-14. Apparently, McCarthy doesn't get credit for a close win for either of them--using the strange and arbitrary "4 points = close win" stat.

This year, they lost in the final minute--partly due to some questionable calls. I think it's just the way the ball bounces some times and some years. He has had only one losing season out of five. If he wins this week, he'll have three playoff appearances. He has an NFC Championship appearance. Not bad. Not great. I'm not convinced that he can get it done, but I'm also not convinced that he can't. I'm willing to give him at least another year, and I hope that the team can stay healthy in 2011.

[bobblehead]

To be honest with younger coaches I tried to veer away from unless they've had extreme success. I would not argue against Haley or Spagnuolo myself.....but once you put out a list it often gets butchered and I figured that would be the case if I put any young guys out there who have yet to be successful

I go back to what I said about the players. Belicheck is pretty good except I have never seen him win without Tom Brady (ok, one season of Cassell after the winning tradition of the team was set). What you say about younger coaches and extreme success....Mike Smith has never won his division. That is extreme success??

I'll give you reid and hoody...and Parcells when he returns to the field next year. After that its open to debate.

[vince]

I agree 100% Harv, except to say taht I have no doubt that McCarthy can get to the Super Bowl. It remains to be seen if he will. When it only takes one loss, we've seen how this team can sometimes find ways to lose regardless of who their coach is. I think McCarthy does a good job of focusing on ball security for example, but guys - particularly inexperienced guys - still manage to fumble at inopportune times.