Draftstravaganza Bracket 1A: (#1) Reed vs. (#8) LeShoure

[Lurker64]

In our mock second draft ( http://packerrats.com/showthread.php...k-second-draft ) we decided that rather than a free for all poll, we would try a bracket. Since there are three rounds to go through, we have to move quickly. As such polling for Round 1 close two days from the time of posting. If you're wondering why someone isn't in our bracket, it's probably because someone already picked him, or he got edged out of the top eight.

Let's meet the prospects (All Scouting reports are shamelessly cribbed from Wes Bunting at the excellent National Football Post).

Brooks Reed OLB, Arizona
6'2 1/2", 263 lbs.

An undersized pass rusher who plays 100 miles per hour on every down. Exhibits a good first step off the snap, gets off the ball quickly, keeps his pad level down and is consistently one of the first defensive linemen moving off the line. Has the ability to threaten the edge and get into offensive tackles quickly. Looks comfortable keeping his pad level down into contact, extending his arms and can create a bit of a surge on his bull rush. Plays with good leverage and can be a bit more physical than his frame would suggest.

However, lacks balance and body control at this stage and really struggles when asked to change directions, keep his feet under him and break off any type of counter move. Also seems to routinely overextend into blocks and doesn't have the type of coordination to drop his shoulder and really accelerate around the corner. Is a real linear pass rusher at this stage who hasn't figured out how to maintain his balance off his initial rush.

Isn't a guy who can stack and shed vs. the run game at the next level, but does play with good leverage when run at and will chase the football in pursuit. Works very hard, fights and scraps for every inch and can work his way into the backfield toward the football, but fails to disengage consistently.

Impression: Plays hard and at least has the explosion to be a threat as a pass rusher at the next level. However, his ability to develop a counter move and become more than a one-trick pony off the edge is key. Looks more like a nickel rusher or potential 3-4 OLB prospect who I would take a shot on because of his initial burst and overall work rate on the field.

Mikel LeShoure RB, Illinois
5'11 5/8", 227 lbs

A thick, well strapped together back with a compact frame and muscular-looking lower half. Has experience running both from the gun and from the I and looks very natural when asked to pick his way through the line of scrimmage. Displays a good first step when asked to press the hole, keeps his pad level down and runs with good forward lean. Is very patient picking his way through the tackles, allows blocks to set up in front of him, has a good feel in tight areas and maintains balance through contact. Showcases impressive footwork and good short-area quickness when asked to side step a defender and make him miss or slip a tackle. Does a nice job dropping his pad level into contact, runs very hard delivering punishment into defenders and breaks his fair share of tackles. Displays a really good first step for his size, accelerating extremely well toward daylight and reaching top-end speed quickly. Lacks elite speed, but has good enough straight-line speed for his size and has the ability to consistently get and turn the corner.

Is a bit tight hipped when asked to quickly cut back against the grain and at times is forced to slow his feet and allows defenders to get into his frame and wrap. Isn't overly instinctive in space either and doesn't routinely see the cut back lane opening up from the backside. However, when asked to press daylight he does have the ability to make that one cut getting up the field — as opposed to laterally — and is violent once he gets into the second level. Is a bear to bring down in the open field and does a nice job finishing runs.

Is still developing as a pass blocker, but has good hands in the pass game. Looks natural catching the football out of the backfield, squaring his shoulders and getting north/south quickly. Has been very productive during his time at Illinois showcasing the ability to carry the load week in and week out.

Impression: A strong, physical Big Ten back who looks comfortable running in tight areas, breaking tackles and accelerating toward daylight. A potential featured back in my view.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Why do I feel like I'm reading about Frank Zombo when I read Reed's negatives. Does anyone remember exactly what Reed's 10-yard split was? I know in one of the threads (combine I think) it was compared to CM3's and some other notables.

[Lurker64]

Why do I feel like I'm reading about Frank Zombo when I read Reed's negatives. Does anyone remember exactly what Reed's 10-yard split was? I know in one of the threads (combine I think) it was compared to CM3's and some other notables.

Reed's 10-yard split was 1.54. Matthews' was 1.49. You probably feel like you're reading about Zombo because "playing in space" isn't natural for a lot of guys initially. Reed's work ethic and motor suggests that he can get it though.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Am I right in thinking that it was the 10-yard split that TT seemed to look for in drafting OLB's? Or was it the three-cone drill? I never was much of a combine junkie, but I remember the statistics I saw arguing against a Brooks Reed pick. Then again, maybe I'm just wrong completely. It wouldn't be the first time.

[Lurker64]

Well, it's unfair to judge other OLB prospects against Matthews' 10-yard split, which was incredible for a pass rusher. Von Miller, who is a top 5 pick as an OLB and is noted for his pass rushing ability only had a 1.57.

1.54 is very good for Reed. The troubling number for Reed is his 3-cone which was a pedestrian 7.11, which suggests that he's not going to dip around the corner to get the QB... but we already have the guy who's probably the very best in the NFL at doing that.

[red]

reed, we don't need a running back in the first

[Deputy Nutz]

Leshore probably gives the best value at this position but in reality you have a legit running back coming of IR that probably could have came back at the end of the year, so he is going to be healthy to start the season, and a running back that was good enough to start and carry the running attack in the playoffs. TT loves value, but no need to overdue it at this point, LaShores ability to contribute in 2011 is minimal unless he is far superior and takes a firm grasp on 2nd string spot.

I wouldn't blow my wad on either of these two guys so I vote for the running back because of value

[Guiness]

Reed is a guy who seems to have shot up draft boards as of late and I can't understand why.

Is Leshore really rated this high, or is he here because he's the next highest rated RB?

I guess I go with group think here and pick Reed.

[Lurker64]

Reed is a guy who seems to have shot up draft boards as of late and I can't understand why.

Similar reason that Matthews shot up like he did. Great workout, great interviews, great reports from coaches convince NFL personnel men that he can be a better pro than a college player.

Is Leshore really rated this high, or is he here because he's the next highest rated RB?

There are a lot of people who think Leshoure is a better NFL running back than Mark Ingram, and he's almost certainly a better fit in our system than Ingram would be.

[Bretsky]

Reed is a guy who seems to have shot up draft boards as of late and I can't understand why.

Is Leshore really rated this high, or is he here because he's the next highest rated RB?

I guess I go with group think here and pick Reed.

Read up on the dude; the more you read the more impressed you'll be. Would not surprise me if a guy like Hoody grabbed him a few picks earlier as he'll also be looking for a playmaking pass rusher/OLB

[Bretsky]

Reed is a guy who seems to have shot up draft boards as of late and I can't understand why.

Is Leshore really rated this high, or is he here because he's the next highest rated RB?

I guess I go with group think here and pick Reed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32KAqii4lrk

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Read up on the dude; the more you read the more impressed you'll be. Would not surprise me if a guy like Hoody grabbed him a few picks earlier as he'll also be looking for a playmaking pass rusher/OLB

He seems like a "Packer guy" through and through, but there are things in his scouting report that really bother me. The fact that he has trouble beating tackles around the corner, something that CM3 excels at (Lurker mentioned this), is one of those. He also has trouble playing in space, though our resident draft expert said, so do many rookies. I also question his ability to tackle in space, and defend the run.

All the hustle and heart in the world can't make up for the essential physical ability needed to play the position at a high level.

[swede]

He seems like a "Packer guy" through and through, but there are things in his scouting report that really bother me. The fact that he has trouble beating tackles around the corner, something that CM3 excels at (Lurker mentioned this), is one of those. He also has trouble playing in space, though our resident draft expert said, so do many rookies. I also question his ability to tackle in space, and defend the run.

All the hustle and heart in the world can't make up for the essential physical ability needed to play the position at a high level.

I'd take a Brady Poppinga with long hair, but not in the first round.

[Bretsky]

I'd take a Brady Poppinga with long hair, but not in the first round.

Did Poppinga ever have the numbers or pedigree in his college playing days of Reed ? I'm not sure I know who to compare him to
but Popp would not enter into my thoughts. He had limited ability IMO

[Lurker64]

He seems like a "Packer guy" through and through, but there are things in his scouting report that really bother me. The fact that he has trouble beating tackles around the corner, something that CM3 excels at (Lurker mentioned this), is one of those. He also has trouble playing in space, though our resident draft expert said, so do many rookies. I also question his ability to tackle in space, and defend the run.

All the hustle and heart in the world can't make up for the essential physical ability needed to play the position at a high level.

Well, when you really break it down pass rushing amounts to one of two things: Running through a wall or running around a (moving) wall. A guy who can't do one of those things can still be a good pass rusher if he doesn't do the other one particularly well. Personally, this is why I'm really high on Nevada's Dontay Moch (though I'd be scorned if I put him in this poll) Moch's 3-cone (7.07) is almost as bad as Reed's (7.11) and Moch's short shuttle (4.38) is even worse than Reed's (4.28)... so neither of these guys are going to be running around anybody to get to the QB. So what you really want to evaluate is "can they run through guys". The fact that Poppinga can't is the reason Poppinga isn't worth a damn as a pass rusher; he runs into walls not through them.

So when you evaluate guys like Moch and Reed as pass rushers, you have to figure if they're going to be able to run through guys. Moch I love because when he hits, he hits like a ton of bricks loaded onto a fright train. Most important explosion numbers are vert and broad. Moch was a 42" vert guy and a 10.67 broad. Compare to Brian Orakpo whose an effective NFL pass rusher whose game is based on the bull rush and all his other moves are counters off of it (Orakpo was a 7.26 3-cone guy and a 4.42 short shuttle guy, so he's not beating anybody around the corner) who managed a 39.5" vert and a 10.68 broad. Moch is Brian Orakpo but 15 lbs lighter and .14 feet shorter.

Reed's game is not Moch's however, Reed's game is all about tenacity, twitch, and anticipation. He's probably going to take a little while to really become an effective NFL pass rusher (as though Frank Zombo wouldn't?) but remember his position coach from one of the NFL's great pass rushers who's game was all about tenacity, twitch, and technique. If you want guys to learn from Kevin Greene, you really want to get guys who are like Kevin Greene. If you've got a quick enough get-off and you've got a screw loose, he can teach you to get to the QB.

The worry with Reed is that he will just be an upgrade over Poppinga. But you can take solace in the fact that Reed has an advantage in 10 yard (1.54<1.64), short shuttle (4.34<4.39), Reps (30>26), 3-cone (7.11<7.29), and Broad (9.42>9.17). Reed's vert of 30.5" is worrisome, but that means that his game is going to work more off of drive than pop.

I suppose what I'm saying is that I'm okay with Reed, but part of me would rather trade back and take Moch... or even take Moch at 32.

But the thing about Reed is that even though I don't really understand his game enough to love him, I saw him play against my Hawkeyes twice in the last two years and he played against some very good tackles (Bulaga and Riley Reiff... if you haven't seen Reiff yet, pay attention, he's got 'top 10 pick' written all over him) and he was trouble. I'm not impressed when a guy explodes against mediocre competition (like when Everette Brown lead the NCAA in sacks by getting 4 or 5 against some cupcakes), but I paid close attention to him twice and saw him play well against good competition. They rotated three DEs for Arizona, but Reed's tenacity posed the most problems.

[Smidgeon]

Well, when you really break it down pass rushing amounts to one of two things: Running through a wall or running around a (moving) wall. A guy who can't do one of those things can still be a good pass rusher if he doesn't do the other one particularly well. Personally, this is why I'm really high on Nevada's Dontay Moch (though I'd be scorned if I put him in this poll) Moch's 3-cone (7.07) is almost as bad as Reed's (7.11) and Moch's short shuttle (4.38) is even worse than Reed's (4.28)... so neither of these guys are going to be running around anybody to get to the QB. So what you really want to evaluate is "can they run through guys". The fact that Poppinga can't is the reason Poppinga isn't worth a damn as a pass rusher; he runs into walls not through them.

So when you evaluate guys like Moch and Reed as pass rushers, you have to figure if they're going to be able to run through guys. Moch I love because when he hits, he hits like a ton of bricks loaded onto a fright train. Most important explosion numbers are vert and broad. Moch was a 42" vert guy and a 10.67 broad. Compare to Brian Orakpo whose an effective NFL pass rusher whose game is based on the bull rush and all his other moves are counters off of it (Orakpo was a 7.26 3-cone guy and a 4.42 short shuttle guy, so he's not beating anybody around the corner) who managed a 39.5" vert and a 10.68 broad. Moch is Brian Orakpo but 15 lbs lighter and .14 feet shorter.

Reed's game is not Moch's however, Reed's game is all about tenacity, twitch, and anticipation. He's probably going to take a little while to really become an effective NFL pass rusher (as though Frank Zombo wouldn't?) but remember his position coach from one of the NFL's great pass rushers who's game was all about tenacity, twitch, and technique. If you want guys to learn from Kevin Greene, you really want to get guys who are like Kevin Greene. If you've got a quick enough get-off and you've got a screw loose, he can teach you to get to the QB.

The worry with Reed is that he will just be an upgrade over Poppinga. But you can take solace in the fact that Reed has an advantage in 10 yard (1.54<1.64), short shuttle (4.34<4.39), Reps (30>26), 3-cone (7.11<7.29), and Broad (9.42>9.17). Reed's vert of 30.5" is worrisome, but that means that his game is going to work more off of drive than pop.

I suppose what I'm saying is that I'm okay with Reed, but part of me would rather trade back and take Moch... or even take Moch at 32.

But the thing about Reed is that even though I don't really understand his game enough to love him, I saw him play against my Hawkeyes twice in the last two years and he played against some very good tackles (Bulaga and Riley Reiff... if you haven't seen Reiff yet, pay attention, he's got 'top 10 pick' written all over him) and he was trouble. I'm not impressed when a guy explodes against mediocre competition (like when Everette Brown lead the NCAA in sacks by getting 4 or 5 against some cupcakes), but I paid close attention to him twice and saw him play well against good competition. They rotated three DEs for Arizona, but Reed's tenacity posed the most problems.

I think you just sold me on Moch.

[Bretsky]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mm10ysGFMvQ

[Bretsky]

I think you just sold me on Moch.

I'm fine with Moch as well........I think his upside is higher but he may also have more ability to bust. Athletic Freak IMO but very raw
COMPLETELY IGNORE the round predications these guys give, but they do offer some decent analysis. He's not getting to round 3-4 IMO. I doubt he gets to round 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWLgPQrlnBs

Some More Analysis from a site

Pass rush: Speed is the name of Dontay Moch's pass rushing game. He has tremendous acceleration and quickness that allows him to threaten the edge. His snap awareness gives him a good jump off the ball and complements his speed. Moch also possesses exceptional savvy as he knows how to time blitzes and effectively execute a stunt. He appears to be a great candidate for a rush outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. However, it will be imperative that he lands on a team with a creative defensive coordinator that will move him around to create mismatches. While Moch can create pressure, he is kind of a one trick pony in that he lacks any true counter moves. He lacks the strength to employ a consistently effective bull rush and typically seeks the edge on every play. Moch does get good leverage and knows how to use his hands but just lacks enough power.

Pursuit: Moch has the quickness and tenacity to chase the football. His speed allows him to close the back door and chase the ball carrier from behind. Moch is a tough player that is always giving 100% and that is a key factor when it comes to pursuit.





Run defense: If Moch lines up on the defensive line, NFL teams will attempt the run the ball down his throat. He doesn't possess the lower body strength to hold at the point of attack. Moch struggles to disengage once an offensive lineman gets their hands on him. However, his suddenness gives hope as he is able to work his way around the blocker. He also keeps his head up and is able to locate the football. Overall, it is going to be a struggle for Moch to effectively defend the run from the defensive end position.

Strength: Its not that Moch doesn't have strength its that he is typically over-matched size-wise. It is tough for a guy weighing 248 lbs to hold strong against a 310 lbs offensive lineman. However, if Moch has any hope it will be thanks to his good pad level and inside hands.

Tackling: Moch is a sure and dependable tackler. He keeps his heads up and breaks down prior to attempting the tackle. He has the coordination to make adjustments as the ball carrier attempts to avoid the tackle. However, he is more of a catcher rather than explosive tackler.

Technique: Keeping his pad level low and gaining leverage are keys to Moch's success. Moch has sound technique in all aspects of his game which helps him overcome some of his issues. He fires off the ball low and routinely gets inside hands. His low pad level helps him stay clean as he works his way to the edge.


Final word: Moch has the potential to be a good pass rusher in the NFL. However, he needs to find a true position and work on developing counter moves. It appears likely that he will need to transition to linebacker which will require time for development. Moch might be one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft because he is someone with great athletic ability but several question marks.

[Lurker64]

The real question I have about Moch (and I've watched a lot of Nevada last year, they were among the most fun teams in the nation to watch, between Kaepernick and Moch one of whom was pretty much always on the field) is that his instincts in space are questionable. His closing speed is among the best you'll see, but he doesn't change direction particularly well and his recognition leaves something to be desired. I think that's fixable though.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

I've liked Moch as well. Thanks for the explanation Lurker. Another problem I have with Reed, as you've mentioned, is that he racked up his numbers last year against inferior competition, ala De'Qwan(sp?) Bowers.