Bye Week Team Stat Rankings

[Smidgeon]

I thought I'd take a different angle on the stats for the bye week. Instead of calculating many of these stats based on a per game basis, I thought I'd look to see how the Packers are doing on a per attempt basis. The idea being, if opponents are trying to play catch-up and passing a lot, how would the defense look if these stats were regulated all across the board. I also added some other strong teams for comparisons. (I mostly ignored running stats since the best RB plays on a 1-6 team and an average running team is the only undefeated team in the league.)

Offense

Category	Packers	Rank	Lions	Saints	Patriots
Pass %		71.3	1st	60.4	70.9	67.5
Yrd/Att		9.4	1st	6.8	8.0	8.9
TD%		8.3	1st	5.9	6.0	6.8
Int%		1.67	6th	1.5	2.7	3.4
1st%		41.7	2nd	33.0	41.5	44.7
20+%		11.3	7th	9.3	9.4	13.5
40+%		3.3	2nd	2.2	2.0	1.7
Sck%		6.7	14th	5.2	4.4	4.6

Defense

Category	Packers	Rank	Lions	Saints	Patriots
Pass %		59.7	15th	64.2	52.9	65.5
Yrd/Att		7.4	23rd	5.6	6.4	8.2
TD%		4.4	19th	3.1	4.7	4.3
Int%		4.8	4th	3.9	1.6	3.4
1st%		36.3	20th	31.5	29.8	40.0
20+%		11.4	27th	5.5	7.5	15.7
40+%		1.8	15th	1.2	2.0	0.9
Sck%		6.2	17th	6.6	5.9	4.3	
PDef%		19.8	5th	16.0	18.0	11.5

Differentials

Category	Packers	Rank	Lions	Saints	Patriots
Pass Rating	44.2	1st	21.3	20.6	12.8

Summary

Offense
As you can see, on a per attempt basis, the Packers are strong in all areas on Offense except for sacks, which is just below league average. The Lions are winning because of their TD and Interception percentages--both Top 5--and a Top 10 sack rate; their offense is near or below average in every other category. The Saints are less explosive than the Lions but are taking fewer sacks and are more efficient in general, excepting interceptions. The Patriots Achilles' heel are the interceptions and below league average on 40+ yard plays.

The Packers certainly look like the class of the NFL on offense when it comes to pure efficiency. I'd like to see the sacks controlled better, but every other major category appears to be Top 5 or close with five of the seven being the best or second best in the league.

Defense
The Packers defense seems to have one saving grace: getting their hands on passes. They're Top 5 in Interception percentage and Pass Defense percentage, but far short in all other defensive categories. The Lions are actually one of the most consistent defensive teams with Top 5 rankings in yard average, TD percentage, Interception %, and 20+ yard%. They also have an above average ranking in 40+ yard %, making them one of the best teams at limiting explosive pass plays. The Saints are doing poorly in both stopping TDs and getting interceptions and sacks, and average in all other categories except completion percentage and first down percentage. Finally, the Patriots rank 28th or worse in six major defensive categories and only have two (interception % and 40+ yard %) ranked better than 16th.

When you break down the defense by attempt, the Packers don't look as bad as their total amounts indicate. Instead of being in the Bottom 5 in many of their statistics, they're only below average when you factor in how often the opponent is trying to catch up. But "only below average" is still bad when you consider this is a team shooting for a second consecutive Super Bowl. This needs to get cleaned up. The only saving grace is that average seems to be enough so far since the offense is so dominant at this point.

[woodbuck27]

Looking at those STAT's and thinking of OUR future:

OK. Impressive Offensive stats after seven games and if this trend continues we need to bolster our team on the lines (LT Chad Clifton can't last forever and he's injured now).

Overall on 'D' with the exception being our secondary that's holding up well inspite of serious injuries. On that note. An NFL team cannot have enough sold CB's. If we loose Nick Collins that's really bad.

It seems to me that we need something to give us a better pass rush and since Ahman Green departed OUR Running game is not consistent.

GO PACKERS!

[vince]

Great stuff Smidgeon. Thanks. Rodgers still has a tendency to hold onto the ball, particularly when the team is ahead like agains MN. Some of that sack percentage is OK because taking a sack and keeping the clock running when you have the lead in the 4th Q is preferable to risking a costly mistake from an errant throw or more likely this year a tipped ball in traffic.

That Passer Rating Differential is otherworldly. Obviously a big part of it is Rodgers, but the defense, while getting thrown on a ton and giving up a lot of 20+ yard plays, has continued to pick the ball off at a high rate and keep the effectiveness of opposing QB's pretty low. As Williams gets back to 100% and Shields returns, so they can play more man on the perimeter, I really think they're going to hold up OK. They have to do a better job getting off the field on 3rd down than they did last week.

[channtheman]

It seemed to me like Rodgers was intent on NOT throwing an INT when we were ahead against MN. He wouldn't throw to (seemingly) open receivers at all. When we were forced to drive, all of a sudden he was fitting the ball into tiny windows again.

[woodbuck27]

It seemed to me like Rodgers was intent on NOT throwing an INT when we were ahead against MN. He wouldn't throw to (seemingly) open receivers at all. When we were forced to drive, all of a sudden he was fitting the ball into tiny windows again.

Yea. He did watch Favre for a few seasons. He had to learn something about swinging out a pass when it wasn't necessary.

GO Aaron Rodgers !

[Upnorth]

Good post smidg!