The Way We Hear It — NFL draft

Maryland's Davis is moving up draft boards, but how high will he go?

By Jeff Reynolds
April 12, 2006


For weeks, it seemed a foregone conclusion to some scouts that Maryland junior TE Vernon Davis was destined to be the sixth overall pick and would be catching passes from Alex Smith in San Francisco.

The Niners haven’t camouflaged their interest, and Davis is the kind of player, and freakish athlete, who would further solidify the 49ers’ young corps on offense.

Now, however, scouts are saying the chances a team will move up to draft Davis earlier than No. 6 are increasing as teams lay out Draft Day scenarios and conduct in-house mock drafts.

“If you are grading the athletes in the draft — just on sheer numbers — he’s probably No. 3,” said one AFC general manager. “Now, that doesn’t mean he’s picked there. But he could be.”

Kellen Winslow II (Browns) was the sixth overall pick in 2004, when the Browns dealt up with Detroit to ensure they would get Winslow. And while teams have changed their positions on the value of tight ends based on contributions from Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and others, most still have some trepidation taking a player at that position too high.

“Not necessarily too high in this case,” said an NFC scout, “but what is the trade-off in value?”

In other words, what a team like the 49ers has to ponder is whether the potential to assemble a more dynamic receiving corps by pairing Davis with WR Antonio Bryant makes more sense than possibly addressing the need in the latter rounds.

Heath Miller (30th overall) was the first tight end off the board last year, but he fell more because of injury questions than ability. Ben Watson, a player some consider comparable to Davis, was the 32nd pick (Patriots). Jason Witten (69th overall in 2003) was a third-round pick, and Dolphins TE Randy McMichael (114th in 2002) went on the second day. Before Winslow, Rickey Dudley (ninth overall, 1996) was the last tight end picked in the top 10.

The 49ers could opt to wait for a tight end and seek someone like Wisconsin’s Owen Daniels in the middle rounds. If San Francisco does pass on Davis — a possibility if Ohio State ILB A.J. Hawk is still on the board — don’t expect Oakland to do the same. Al Davis would not hesitate to pull the trigger and give QB Aaron Brooks an arsenal that includes Davis, Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry and LaMont Jordan. The Bills, Lions and Cardinals are also in the hunt.

PFW rates Davis as the eighth-best player in the draft, the fifth-best offensive player. One team with which PFW spoke on Tuesday had Davis rated sixth and another, which has its TE position adequately filled, said last week Davis was No. 11 on its board. The questions it had surrounding Davis weren’t doubts about his pro prospects so much as concerns that he’s a rawer prospect than teams think.

Davis did start only 17 games in college and was a full-time starter for just one season. Few scouts question Davis’ ability. But they do wonder aloud why an athlete with his natural skills wasn’t on the field most of his first two seasons. The theory of some is that Davis struggled to absorb the intricacies of Ralph Friedgen’s offense and that he might not be a great fit in an elaborate system.

But the untapped potential also makes him more attractive to others. He led the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per catch as a junior and ran between 4.39 and 4.41 in the 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine at 254 pounds.

Every year, there are surprises in the first round — players who get drafted there that many would never have thought had a chance. Last year, Logan Mankins surprised many. In previous years, there was Jason Babin, Tyler Brayton, Bryan Thomas and Patrick Ramsey. At the end of the first round, there are always surprises.

It happens because all 32 teams grade differently. The evaluation process is essentially a game of elimination. As the draft nears, most teams have no more than 120 players on their boards whom they would actually consider drafting. The primary reason players are eliminated is because they simply are not viewed as good enough football players to upgrade a team, but character concerns, injuries and intelligence issues all weigh into the equation, as does how well a player fits a team’s schemes.

One personnel man with whom PFW spoke broke down the first round based on both his own knowledge and opinions he has heard from other evaluators around the league in an attempt to identify who could be available in Round Two. Following is his breakdown of potential first-round candidates, by position. Players are listed in alphabetical order, not in order of preference:

Quarterbacks (3): Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Vince Young
Running backs (5): Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams
Tight ends (3): Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Leonard Pope
Wide receivers (3): Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss
Offensive tackles (4): D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Winston Justice, Marcus McNeill, Eric Winston
Offensive guards (3): Max Jean-Gilles, Davin Joseph, Deuce Lutui
Center (1): Nick Mangold

Defensive ends (5): Tamba Hali, Mathias Kiwanuka, Manny Lawson, Mario Williams, Kamerion Wimbley
Defensive tackles (5): Brodrick Bunkley, Orien Harris, John McCargo, Haloti Ngata, Claude Wroten
Linebackers (8): Bobby Carpenter, Chad Greenway, A.J. Hawk, Thomas Howard, D’Qwell Jackson, Roger McIntosh, DeMeco Ryans, Ernie Sims
Cornerbacks (8): Antonio Cromartie, Tye Hill, Michael Huff, Kelly Jennings, Johnathan Joseph, Richard Marshall, Jimmy Williams, Ashton Youboty
Safeties (3): Jason Allen, Donté Whitner, Daniel Bullucks

Altogether, there were 22 offensive players and 29 defensive players with at least an outside chance to fit into the first round.