THE MOST IMPORTANT QB STAT

[texaspackerbacker]

I'll address this mainly to the whiners and ingrates who have been bad-mouthing Aaron Rodgers in this forum and elsewhere and yammering about how he should change:

The GOAT QB just broke the record today held by possibly the second greatest QB of all time in what is IMO the most important stat of all: not throwing interceptions - 359 and more after the record breaker, and counting consecutive passes.

A lot has been said about getting rid of the ball quick - IMO a recipe for throwing more interceptions, as almost happened a couple of times today. Using mobility/moving around and throwing the ball downfield, as Rodgers does better than anybody else probably ever, not only gives you the chance for those big plays, but it lessens the prospect of getting picked off.

[Rutnstrut]

I'll address this mainly to the whiners and ingrates who have been bad-mouthing Aaron Rodgers in this forum and elsewhere and yammering about how he should change:

The GOAT QB just broke the record today held by possibly the second greatest QB of all time in what is IMO the most important stat of all: not throwing interceptions - 359 and more after the record breaker, and counting consecutive passes.

A lot has been said about getting rid of the ball quick - IMO a recipe for throwing more interceptions, as almost happened a couple of times today. Using mobility/moving around and throwing the ball downfield, as Rodgers does better than anybody else probably ever, not only gives you the chance for those big plays, but it lessens the prospect of getting picked off.

That record will look awesome when he is sitting at home watching the superb owl.

[Joemailman]

I'll address this mainly to the whiners and ingrates who have been bad-mouthing Aaron Rodgers in this forum and elsewhere and yammering about how he should change:

The GOAT QB just broke the record today held by possibly the second greatest QB of all time in what is IMO the most important stat of all: not throwing interceptions - 359 and more after the record breaker, and counting consecutive passes.

A lot has been said about getting rid of the ball quick - IMO a recipe for throwing more interceptions, as almost happened a couple of times today. Using mobility/moving around and throwing the ball downfield, as Rodgers does better than anybody else probably ever, not only gives you the chance for those big plays, but it lessens the prospect of getting picked off.

Rodgers is 11th in the NFL in TD passes, and Packers are 16th in points scored. If not throwing interceptions really was the most important stat, then those rankings would be better.

[ThunderDan]

I will say this. Not throwing ints helps the team. But it is not be all and end all of important statistics.

[pbmax]

I will say this. Not throwing ints helps the team. But it is not be all and end all of important statistics.

I suspect the actual best mix would be a few more INTs that would yield a good number of more TDs. But its easy to overstate this. Packers not overflowing with WR talent.

I do hope someone can get the offense back to some semblance of progressions.

[mraynrand]

I do hope someone can get the offense back to some semblance of progressions.

+1. The current MO is to manipulate the defense into getting the primary read you want, seeing it pre-snap, and using other receivers as decoys. When the primary read breaks down, Rodgers does the EO, running around like chicken sans head and taking sacks or running the ball if someone doesn't juke open on the scramble drill. Gotta have better from the other WR patterns - maybe have actual patterns. And with that OPI that Graham picked up, you can see how rusty the team is in just carrying out basic rubs on crossing patterns.

[mraynrand]

As for this stat, I'd much rather see north of 50% on third down conversions, especially since I know this team fails on third downs because their scheme puts them in too many third and longs. But yeah, fewer INTs is generally good.

[call_me_ishmael]

The most important QB stat is obviously wins. The second most important one is some combination of completion percentage paired with yards per attempt and interception rate. To that end, you're like 20% right.

[call_me_ishmael]

so there ya go

[call_me_ishmael]

We've gone from watching Favre throw into septuple coverage, and get picked off, to watching Rodgers throw it away, because there's a defender on the same field as the receiver. Surely we can find a happy medium, right?

LOL!!!

[pbmax]

+1. The current MO is to manipulate the defense into getting the primary read you want, seeing it pre-snap, and using other receivers as decoys. When the primary read breaks down, Rodgers does the EO, running around like chicken sans head and taking sacks or running the ball if someone doesn't juke open on the scramble drill. Gotta have better from the other WR patterns - maybe have actual patterns. And with that OPI that Graham picked up, you can see how rusty the team is in just carrying out basic rubs on crossing patterns.

Exactly. It’s an offense built on alerts. Favre did this too. He sometimes played from memory of previous routes rather than read the field.

[gbgary]

comp %, yards/completion, td/int ratio. wins is not a qb stat. of his 53 t/a's i'd guess over half had someone open early and very often had someone open right where he threw it away. that's drive-killing, momentum-killing, inefficiency. at least he used the middle of the field a tad more yesterday.

[texaspackerbacker]

+1. The current MO is to manipulate the defense into getting the primary read you want, seeing it pre-snap, and using other receivers as decoys. When the primary read breaks down, Rodgers does the EO, running around like chicken sans head and taking sacks or running the ball if someone doesn't juke open on the scramble drill. Gotta have better from the other WR patterns - maybe have actual patterns. And with that OPI that Graham picked up, you can see how rusty the team is in just carrying out basic rubs on crossing patterns.

I suppose that's a biased but fair description what the Packers do at times. It got us 34 points on not to bad a defense last Sunday before we took our foot off the gas. I'd much rather have that than a lot of wasted downs on running plays. The scramble drill that you describe is pretty much the best option when the O Line can't just play it straight up and stop the pass rush. As for that basic rub thing/legal picks, I'm fairly sure the Packers do that a lot as well as the quick screen to Adams or another WR.

The thing several people in here have advocated is getting rid of the ball quick as a means of compensating for the poor pass blocking. I say again, that is a recipe for interceptions - as we saw a couple of times against the Falcons when the streak was almost broken.

Rand, you also said you'd rather have a better percentage of 3rd down conversions than a lack of interceptions. We would all like that better percentage on 3rd down, but absolutely not at the risk of interceptions. Giving up possession 40 or so yards down field on a 4th down punt is not ideal, but it beats the hell out of giving up the ball and maybe a quick touchdown on an interception.

[pbmax]

comp %, yards/completion, td/int ratio. wins is not a qb stat. of his 53 t/a's i'd guess over half had someone open early and very often had someone open right where he threw it away. that's drive-killing, momentum-killing, inefficiency. at least he used the middle of the field a tad more yesterday.

Except for that one drive featuring Jones, the offense looked a lot like the 4th quarter comeback offense.

A third of the throws went to Davante.

[pbmax]

Packers were 7 for 13 on third down yesterday.

[pbmax]

Mike Tanier @MikeTanier

DVOA and DYAR by @fboutsiders are the best metrics for ranking QBs, teams etc. Folks who don't want to use it should just use the raw rates without making a smoothie out of them: 65% complete, 9 YPA, etc.

DYAR QBs (Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) -- Rodgers ranked 9th

Player		Team	DYAR
P.Mahomes	KC	1,678
D.Brees		NO	1,462
P.Rivers	LAC	1,234
J.Goff		LAR	1,080
M.Ryan		ATL	976
B.Roethlisber	PIT	898
T.Brady		NE	721
R.Wilson	SEA	666
A.Rodgers	GB	589

[pbmax]

Completion %, 25th ranked

                                    
Rk               Player  Tm Cmp% Y/A
1            Drew Brees NOR 75.7 8.3
2          Kirk Cousins MIN 71.3 7.1
3             Matt Ryan ATL 70.5 8.1
4          Carson Wentz PHI 69.6 7.7
5            Derek Carr OAK 69.4 7.5
6         Philip Rivers LAC 69.4 8.9
7        Marcus Mariota TEN 69.1 7.8
8            Cam Newton CAR 68.8 7.4
9          Dak Prescott DAL 68.2 7.5
10          Andrew Luck IND 67.7 7.1
11          Eli Manning NYG 67.7 7.6
12   Ben Roethlisberger PIT 67.0 7.7
13       Ryan Tannehill MIA 67.0 8.0
14       Deshaun Watson HOU 66.9 8.2
15      Patrick Mahomes KAN 66.8 8.9
16     Ryan Fitzpatrick TAM 66.7 9.6
17       Russell Wilson SEA 66.6 8.3
18     Matthew Stafford DET 66.5 6.9
19            Tom Brady NWE 65.6 7.8
20       Jameis Winston TAM 64.8 8.0
21           Jared Goff LAR 64.4 8.6
22       Baker Mayfield CLE 64.4 7.7
23    Mitchell Trubisky CHI 64.4 7.3
24           Alex Smith WAS 62.5 6.6
25        Aaron Rodgers GNB 62.0 7.5

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/10/2018.

[pbmax]

Yards Per Attempt -- Rodgers ranked 17th

                               
Rk               Player  Tm Y/A
1      Ryan Fitzpatrick TAM 9.6
2       Patrick Mahomes KAN 8.9
3         Philip Rivers LAC 8.9
4            Jared Goff LAR 8.6
5            Drew Brees NOR 8.3
6        Russell Wilson SEA 8.3
7        Deshaun Watson HOU 8.2
8             Matt Ryan ATL 8.1
9        Jameis Winston TAM 8.0
10       Ryan Tannehill MIA 8.0
11            Tom Brady NWE 7.8
12       Marcus Mariota TEN 7.8
13   Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7.7
14         Carson Wentz PHI 7.7
15       Baker Mayfield CLE 7.7
16          Eli Manning NYG 7.6
17        Aaron Rodgers GNB 7.5
18           Derek Carr OAK 7.5
19         Dak Prescott DAL 7.5
20           Cam Newton CAR 7.4
21    Mitchell Trubisky CHI 7.3
22          Andrew Luck IND 7.1
23         Kirk Cousins MIN 7.1
24        Blake Bortles JAX 7.0
25          Andy Dalton CIN 7.0
26     Matthew Stafford DET 6.9
27          Case Keenum DEN 6.9
28          Sam Darnold NYJ 6.7
29           Alex Smith WAS 6.6
30           Joe Flacco BAL 6.5
31           Josh Allen BUF 6.3
32           Josh Rosen ARI 6.1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/10/2018.

[gbgary]

pb's stats above

man...not the kind of stuff you want to see from the highest paid guy in the league. sure hope things are better next year. i don't want to say i told you so.

[mraynrand]

I suppose that's a biased but fair description what the Packers do at times. It got us 34 points on not to bad a defense last Sunday before we took our foot off the gas. I'd much rather have that than a lot of wasted downs on running plays. The scramble drill that you describe is pretty much the best option when the O Line can't just play it straight up and stop the pass rush. As for that basic rub thing/legal picks, I'm fairly sure the Packers do that a lot as well as the quick screen to Adams or another WR.

The thing several people in here have advocated is getting rid of the ball quick as a means of compensating for the poor pass blocking. I say again, that is a recipe for interceptions - as we saw a couple of times against the Falcons when the streak was almost broken.

Rand, you also said you'd rather have a better percentage of 3rd down conversions than a lack of interceptions. We would all like that better percentage on 3rd down, but absolutely not at the risk of interceptions. Giving up possession 40 or so yards down field on a 4th down punt is not ideal, but it beats the hell out of giving up the ball and maybe a quick touchdown on an interception.

I don't know that the offense Sunday was the EO offense. Have to look it over again.

I also don't know what trade off will lead to better third down conversions a the expense of lower INT rate. Maybe throwing high to Graham over the middle instead of at his knees where he can't catch it easily nor run with it even if he does catch it. Or slants - you throw too many, and the LB drops back and snags one - look for Mack to get one just like this on Sunday if they go short passing all game long.

But honestly, taking the sack or throwing it away is mostly better than INTs. But getting in lots of third and longs is a special failure of the offense (and I don't know how frequent it is compared to earlier ion the year).

Still, this is all blowing smoke. The Packers are failing on offense because their QB was hurt/less efficient, their O-line is a mess, they don't have an effective balance of running/short passes on early downs to create higher percentage 3rd downs, and they have personnel problems at WR as well. Generally, their offense is a collection of 'meh' at various positions, leaving you with an overall 'meh' offense. It's hard to see how that will dramatically improve here on the stretch run, especially against Chicago. Their last two games should be highly winnable (but so was AZ). Chicago should be a very difficult game to win given the team's personnel shortcomings. (in the Chicago thread, maybe talk about the best strategy to win will be working the edges with four wideouts).