True, if you think the Packers have an above average 10% chance at making the superbowl and a much below average 12% chance of missing the playoffs, it still means that you think missing out is more likely. But this is not the time of year for such an pessimistic attitude. This is the time to look at the NFC and say none of the other teams are clearly better than the Packers and a lot are clearly worse, so the Superbowl is more likely than missing out.