Green Bay is tied with the Bears for the best defense in football this year (14.6 PPG). And its pass defense in particular provides a formidable challenge.
We measure pass defenses not by yards allowed -- really a useless indicator -- but by Defensive Passer Rating. We take the formula used to rate a quarterback's passing efficiency and apply it to a team's defensive stats. It has an incredibly high correlation to team success.
The Packers right now are No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating (66.46). Only the Bears are better, and just barely (66.42). Green Bay has allowed just nine TD tosses all year, with 15 picks. Opponents complete a mere 55.9 percent of their passes; only the Jets are better in this department (51.0 percent). Green Bay is also No. 2 in yards per pass attempt against them (6.46). It's a great pass defense, in other words.
With all that said, the Packers have not exactly faced a murderers' row of quarterbacks: Michael Vick in Week 1, Mark Sanchez and Week 8 and that's about it for good quarterbacks leading good teams on Green Bay's schedule so far.
Bottom line: Green Bay's pass defense vs. Ryan at home represents what might be the toughest battle for both sides all year.
3. The Packers are the most efficient, well-run team in football this year. The Cold, Hard Football Facts put a lot of stock in efficiency over volume. Efficient teams win games, regardless of how prolific they might be.
You should put a lot of stock in efficiency, too. After all, teams that win the efficiency battle by our measure win about 85 percent of the time. Few indicators outside of final score have such an incredibly high correlation to success on Sunday.
We measure defensive efficiency through what we call the Bendability Index, our very successful effort to quantify the mysterious "bend but don't break" phenomenon. We measure offensive efficiency by what we call the Scoreability Index.
Right now, no team in football is more efficient on both sides of the ball than Green Bay. The Packers are No. 1 in Bendability: they force opponents to march an incredible 155 yards to score the equivalent of one touchdown and extra point. That's a lot of work and a lot of wasted effort by opponents with little result.
(For comparison's sake, the Chargers are dead last this year in Bendability: opponents need just 89 yards to put seven points on the board. Now you know why San Diego is just 5-5 despite its incredible rankings in most traditional indicators: they're an inefficient team.)
The Packers, meanwhile, are No. 3 in Scoreability, too. They're highly effective at turning just a few yards into a lot of points. Green Bay needs just 97 yards of offense to put the equivalent of seven points on the board.
A lot of factors go into a highly efficient team, at least the way we track it: teams that win the turnover battle, that are good on special teams, that force big plays on defense and that play well in the red zone rank very highly in our efficiency indicators. The Packers, in other words, are an efficient, well-coached team that plays smart situational football and takes advantage of opportunities presented to it on both sides of the ball.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts
Atlanta is well equipped to handle Green Bay's playmaking defense. The Falcons right now field the best offensive line in football, according to our Offensive Hog Index. And that unit will play a key role on Sunday.
The Packers are among the best in football at getting after the quarterback, as evidenced by their NFC-leading 29 sacks. Linebacker Clay Matthews leads the charge with 11.5 sacks, the most by any player this year.
Atlanta counters with one of the best pass-blocking units in football: Ryan is pressured into a sack or interception on just 5.1 percent of dropbacks. Only Peyton Manning suffers fewer mistakes (4.2 percent).
Provided Atlanta's offensive line plays up to its potential on Sunday, it neutralizes one of Green Bay's typical advantages: its playmaking defense.
The Falcons also have a better record overall, they're a solid club, and they're virtually unbeatable at home. It's hard to go against that kind of trend.
But they do have one critical weakness: the Falcons are merely mediocre on pass defense. They rank a mere No. 21 in Defensive Passer Rating, and have allowed 18 TD passes this year. That weakness does not bode well against the statistically prolific Rodgers, who will exploit that weakness and enter the "official" NFL record books in style.
The Pick
This is one of the toughest games to gauge we've seen this year: Green Bay is statistically proficient, while the Falcons never lose at home.
Here's the difference: Green Bay has surrendered just 10 points in its last three games, the best stretch of defense by any team in football this year. The Falcons, meanwhile, are soft on pass defense and face a red-hot quarterback. It adds up to a rare loss in Atlanta for the Falcons.
Green Bay 24, Atlanta 23